The use of satellite observations in the evaluation of air quality models

Transcription

1 The use of satellite observations in the evaluation of air quality models Tim Canty University of Maryland, College Park MARAMA 2011 Data Analysis Workshop January,

2 The modeling community is often tasked with investigating whether proposed changes to emissions, kinetics, dynamics, etc. will lead to meeting air quality attainment goals. 2

3 2007 Screening Modeling Widespread ozone exceedance events throughout the region beginning August 2007 Persistent high levels of ozone in Maryland for this time period. 3

4 August 2, 2007 Baseline 50% NOx 30% VOC 65% NOx, point sources 75% NOx, on road 35% NOx, non road 30% VOC 5% NOx, OTR 70% NOx 30% VOC 4

5 August 3, 2007 Baseline 50% NOx 30% VOC 65% NOx, point sources 75% NOx, on road 35% NOx, non road 30% VOC 5% NOx, OTR 70% NOx 30% VOC 5

6 August 4, 2007 Baseline 50% NOx 30% VOC 65% NOx, point sources 75% NOx, on road 35% NOx, non road 30% VOC 5% NOx, OTR 70% NOx 30% VOC 6

7 August 5, 2007 Baseline 50% NOx 30% VOC 65% NOx, point sources 75% NOx, on road 35% NOx, non road 30% VOC 5% NOx, OTR 70% NOx 30% VOC 7

8 Question: Should the ability of air quality models to reproduce ozone precursors be part of this discussion? If so, Can current satellite data help us better understand how air quality models handle ozone precursors, such as NO2? 8

9 SCIAMACHY SCanning Imaging Absorption spectrometer for Atmospheric CartograpHY- is a passive remote sensing spectrometer observing backscattered, reflected, transmitted or emitted radiation from the atmosphere and Earth's surface, in the wavelength range between 240 and 2380 nm. The instrument flies on board ENVISAT which was launched on 1 March

10 SCIAMACHY Observations occur ~10AM 10

11 GOME2 The Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) is one of the new-generation European instruments carried on MetOp-A (launched in October 2006). It continues the long-term monitoring of atmospheric trace gases started by GOME on ERS-2 and SCIAMACHY on Envisat. 11

12 GOME2 Observations occur ~11AM 12

13 OMI The Ozone Monitoring Instrument continues the TOMS record for total ozone and other atmospheric parameters related to ozone chemistry and climate. The instrument is a contribution of the Netherlands's Agency for Aerospace Programs (NIVR) in collaboration with the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) to the Aura mission. 13

14 OMI Observations occur ~1:30PM 14

15 DOMINO Observations occur ~1:30PM 15

16 OMI August 2, 2007 CMAQ CMAQ/OMI 16 OMI uncertainty based on Irie et al., ACP 8, , 2008

17 OMI August 3, 2007 CMAQ CMAQ/OMI 17

18 OMI August 4, 2007 CMAQ CMAQ/OMI 18

19 OMI August 5, 2007 CMAQ CMAQ/OMI 19

20 OMI August 5, 2007 CMAQ Model consistently underpredicts tropospheric NO2 column compared to satellite CMAQ/OMI 20

21 OMI August 5, 2007 CMAQ NOx CMAQ/OMI 21

22 OMI August 5, 2007 CMAQ NOy CMAQ/OMI 22

23 Assuming the satellite is (mostly) correct, can chemistry help solve this dilemma? 23

24 Mollner et al., Science 29 Vol DOI: /science ,

25 OMI August 2, 2007 CMAQ-New Kinetics CMAQ/OMI 25

26 OMI August 3, 2007 CMAQ-New Kinetics CMAQ/OMI 26

27 OMI August 4, 2007 CMAQ-New Kinetics CMAQ/OMI 27

28 OMI August 5, 2007 CMAQ-New Kinetics CMAQ/OMI 28

29 August 2, 2007 NO2 BASELINE MODIFIED KINETICS MODIFIED/BASELINE 29

30 August 3, 2007 NO2 BASELINE MODIFIED KINETICS MODIFIED/BASELINE 30

31 August 4, 2007 NO2 BASELINE MODIFIED KINETICS MODIFIED/BASELINE 31

32 August 5, 2007 NO2 BASELINE MODIFIED KINETICS MODIFIED/BASELINE 32

33 August 2, 2007 O3 BASELINE MODIFIED KINETICS MODIFIED/BASELINE 33

34 August 3, 2007 O3 BASELINE MODIFIED KINETICS MODIFIED/BASELINE 34

35 August 4, 2007 O3 BASELINE MODIFIED KINETICS MODIFIED/BASELINE 35

36 August 5, 2007 O3 BASELINE MODIFIED KINETICS MODIFIED/BASELINE 36

37 Height of planetary boundary layer (over Univ. of Maryland, BC) Should also consider dynamics. Is NO2 being lofted out of the boundary layer? To do: Compare PBL height in CMAQ to lidar observations 37

38 Height of planetary boundary layer (over Univ. of Maryland, BC) 38

39 Height of planetary boundary layer (over Univ. of Maryland, BC) 39

40 Height of planetary boundary layer (over Univ. of Maryland, BC) 40

41 It is important to consider that improvements to one aspect of the model may yield unexpected results (i.e. modification of the OH+NO2+M reaction leads to higher NO2 in most of the domain but near some urban regions, NO2 decreases). The hope is, however, that this ultimately will lead to a better description of the actual atmosphere and lend more credence to model predictions. 41

42 Thank you to Maryland Department of the Environment and NASA for funding this work and the SCIAMACHY/ GOME2/ OMI science teams for making their satellite retrievals freely available! 42