Cheap solar is great but what do you do with it? Jimmy Nelson, Ph.D. Kendall Science Fellow Union of Concerned Scientists

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1 Cheap solar is great but what do you do with it? Jimmy Nelson, Ph.D. Kendall Science Fellow Union of Concerned Scientists PV Idealab UC Berkeley 02/28/2014

2 Four actions to reduce emissions From: California s Energy Future The View to 2050, California Council on Science and Technology,

3 1. Efficiency From: California s Energy Future The View to 2050, California Council on Science and Technology,

4 2. Electrification Not enough low or zero carbon fuel to go around From: California s Energy Future The View to 2050, California Council on Science and Technology,

5 3 + 4 Low-Carb Biofuels + Electricity From: California s Energy Future The View to 2050, California Council on Science and Technology,

6 Summary From: California s Energy Future The View to 2050, California Council on Science and Technology,

7 Uses for Long-Term Capacity-Planning Models If electricity does become the dominant component of the 2050 energy economy, the cost of decarbonized electricity becomes a paramount economic issue. [ ] These findings indicate that minimizing the cost of decarbonized generation should be a key policy objective (Williams et al., 2012). So we ve solved everything if we have cheap solar, right? Williams JH, DeBenedictis A, Ghanadan R, Mahone A, Moore J, Morrow WR III, Price S, Torn MS (2012). The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity, Science

8 The transition to a renewable electricity system must be smooth But renewable intermittency is a huge challenge Image source:

We can t control the wind or sun One Day at 10 Second Resolution Solar Power Output (MW) 4 3 2 1 0 Image source: "The Spectrum of Power from

9 We can t control the wind or sun One Day at 10 Second Resolution Solar Power Output (MW) Image source: "The Spectrum of Power from Utility-Scale Wind Farms and Solar Photovoltaic Arrays", Jay Apt and Aimee Curtright, Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center Working Paper CEIC-08-04

10 Concept: net electricity demand Wind production Total Electricity Demand Solar production Net electricity demand the amount of power a system operator needs to provide from sources they can control

11 The infamous duck chart Net Electricity Demand (MW) Hour of Day Duck image source: Chart image source: California Independent System Operator

12 Solar reduces daytime net electricity demand Sunrise Sunset Net Electricity Demand (MW) Solar Hour of Day

13 Challenge: Ramp Ramp is difficult to follow with existing power plants Net Electricity Demand (MW) Hour of Day

14 Challenge: Overgeneration Supply and demand must be equal every second Net Electricity Demand (MW) Unused Renewable Must-run generation Energy for reliability Hour of Day

There are many possible flexibility solutions Increased regional coordination Electricity storage Electricity transmission Demand response Targeted energy efficiency

15 There are many possible flexibility solutions Increased regional coordination Electricity storage Electricity transmission Demand response Targeted energy efficiency Diverse renewable portfolio Solar panel tilt More flexible conventional generation Smart grid technologies Renewable curtailment How do we choose which ones to deploy?

16 SWITCH-WECC: Planning A planning for Generation tool for and the Transmission electric power system WECC 16

17 SWITCH-WECC: A planning tool for the electric power system Planning for Generation and Transmission Used to plan low carbon power systems SWITCH co-optimizes power system capacity investment and hourly dispatch Hourly electricity demand and renewable output profiles Goal is to capture the temporal relationship between demand and renewable power System-wide approach is key Geographic diversity reduces overall variability of demand and renewable output Sharing of flexibility resources Objective: minimize future power system cost while meeting demand, reliability, and policy constraints 17

18 Electrification could create much demand at night Is this bad for solar? Business-As-Usual baseline Base demand post-efficiency Electric heating Electric vehicles Input demand profile into SWITCH Wei, M., Nelson, J., Greenblatt, J., Mileva, A., Johnston, J., Ting, M., Yang, C., Jones, C., McMahon, J., Kammen, D., Deep carbon reductions in California requires electrification and integration across economic sectors. Environmental Research Letters 8 (1),

System flexibility crucial to cost containment by 2050 Solar

240 Power Cost - WECC Average ($2013/MWh) 220 200 180 160 140

Electrification Reduced Efficiency Implementation -40% Carbon

Balancing Areas California 50% RPS Base Scenario Sunshot

19 System flexibility crucial to cost containment by 2050 Solar needs friends! 240 Power Cost - WECC Average ($2013/MWh) No CCS Limited Hydro Aggressive Electrification Reduced Efficiency Implementation -40% Carbon Cap / BioCCS Expensive Transmission 12GW Distributed PV Small Balancing Areas California 50% RPS Base Scenario Sunshot Solar Low Gas Price -20% Carbon Cap / BioCCS Demand Response New Nuclear Business As Usual

20 20

21 Power system cost increasingly dominated by flexibility rather than energy 21

22 Dispatch in 2050: Flexibility and variable renewables dominate Storage almost exclusively moves solar to the night

Drastic emission reductions possible without nuclear, CCS, or bioelectricity > 70 % of energy

40 20 0 Base Scenario No CCS Small Balancing Areas Limited Hydro Expensive Transmission Demand

Carbon Cap / BioCCS -40% Carbon Cap / BioCCS Reduced Efficiency Aggressive Electrification

23 Drastic emission reductions possible without nuclear, CCS, or bioelectricity > 70 % of energy from wind and solar 2050 WECC Generation Mix (Average GW) Base Scenario No CCS Small Balancing Areas Limited Hydro Expensive Transmission Demand Response 12GW Distributed PV California 50% RPS Sunshot Solar Low Gas Price New Nuclear -20% Carbon Cap / BioCCS -40% Carbon Cap / BioCCS Reduced Efficiency Aggressive Electrification Business As Usual Solar Wind Biopower Biopower CCS Gas Gas CCS Nuclear Geothermal Coal CCS Coal Hydro Demand 23

24 2050 WECC Generation Mix (Average GW) Demand response incentivizes solar more than inexpensive solar capital costs! Integration costs dominate at large fractions of solar Inexpensive storage (not investigated here) would likely incentivize solar Base Scenario No CCS Small Balancing Areas Limited Hydro Expensive Transmission Demand Response 12GW Distributed PV California 50% RPS Sunshot Solar Low Gas Price New Nuclear -20% Carbon Cap / BioCCS -40% Carbon Cap / BioCCS Reduced Efficiency Aggressive Electrification Business As Usual Solar Wind Biopower Biopower CCS Gas Gas CCS Nuclear Geothermal Coal CCS Coal Hydro Demand 24

25 Wind in the east, solar in the south 25

26 26

27 SunShot solar, no nuclear, no carbon capture Solar everywhere! 27

28 SWITCH-WECC Study team and funding SWITCH Prof. Daniel Kammen Jimmy Nelson Ana Mileva Josiah Johnston LBNL Dr. Jeffery Greenblatt Dr. Max Wei SWITCH-WECC support: The Karsten Family Foundation 28

29 Thanks!

California s Carbon Challenge: Scenarios for Achieving 80% emissions reduction in 2050

California s Carbon Challenge: Scenarios for Achieving 80% emissions reduction in 2050 Max Wei Lawrence Berkeley National Lab Aug. 1, 2011 The Road to a 100% Renewable Energy System workshop Center for