PATHWAYS TO DEEP DECARBONISATION

Transcription

1 PATHWAYS TO DEEP DECARBONISATION Highlights from the deep decarbonisation pathways reports Ryan Jones Principal, Evolved Energy Research

2 Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project National blueprints for limiting warming to 2 C Independent research teams from 16 countries 3/4 of current CO 2 emissions OECD, China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico Goal: change climate policy discussion From incrementalism to transformation From policy abstractions to problem solving From opaqueness to transparency From conventional wisdom to concreteness 2 page 2

3 Top fossil fuel emitters (per capita) Countries have a broad range of per capita emissions reflecting their national circumstances China s per capita emissions have passed the EU28 and are 43% above the global average 1.7 t/p was the target for each DDPP team in 2050 Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015 page 3

4 Paris Agreement, Article 4, Paragraph 19 All Parties should strive to formulate and communicate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies 4

5 What s the practical value of an analysis out to 2050? Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. ( page page 5 5

6 Imagining a deeply decarbonized U.S. Energy System

7 U.S. Pathways Analysis E3, UC Berkeley, LBNL, PNNL team Technical Report, Nov What would it take for US to achieve 80% GHG reduction below 1990 level by 2050? Is it technically feasible? What would it cost? What physical changes are required? Policy Report, Nov What are the policy implications for the US? Reports available at Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. ( page page 7 7

8 U.S. Gross Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Tg CO2-equivalent) 80% reduction in net CO2e 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Industry Residential Commercial Agriculture US GHG emissions by sector CO2 from energy in 2010 was 5405 MMT (17 tons/person) DDPP US 2050 target is 750 MMT (1.7 tons/person) Net 2050 CO2e target 1080 MMT max 330 from other sources 3,000 2,000 Transportation 1,000 Electric Power Industry 0 sinks -1, gross emissions net emissions sink Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. ( page page 8 8

9 Scenario Design Constraints Infrastructure inertia Electric reliability Same energy services as EIA forecast Technology is commercial or nearcommercial Environmental limits (biomass, hydro) $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 U.S. GDP (Trillion $2012) GD 166% increase U.S. population (Millions) % increase U.S. National Energy Modeling System and 2013 Annual Energy Outlook reference case Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. ( page page 9 9

10 EnergyPATHWAYS Model Accounting tool, user-defined scenarios 80 demand sectors, 20 supply sectors Annual time steps with equipment lifetimes 9 US census divisions separately modeled Electricity dispatch, three US interconnects New Vehicles by Vintage Total Stock by Year Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. ( page page 10 10

11 MMT CO2 tonnes CO 2 e Result: Multiple Pathways to Deeply Reduce U.S. Energy Emissions 6, Per capita emissions 5,000 4, ,000 2,000 5,153 5,639 Cost ~ 1% GDP (-0.2% +1.8%) 1, Reference Mixed 2050 High Renewables Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States 2050 High Nuclear Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. ( High CCS 11 page 11

12 Result: Deep Decarbonization is Affordable to U.S. Economy Net energy system cost in 2050 ~ 0.8% GDP (-0.2% to +1.8%) Does not include economic benefits of avoided pollution or climate damage page page 12 12

13 5 Key Elements of Low Carbon Energy Systems Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. ( page page 13 13

14 Result: Three Pillars Always Required (MJ/$2005) Source: E3 Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. ( page page 14 14

15 Result: Key Changes in Physical Energy System page 15 page 15

16 Residential Energy Transition page 16 page 16

17 Light Duty Vehicle Fuel Mix page 17 page 17

18 Pathway Choices Renewables, nuclear, or CCS? Electricity balancing strategy? Future of natural gas pipeline? EV or FC vehicles? Biomass for transport fuel or pipeline gas? Building electrification or very high EE? page page 18 18

19 Result: Early Retirement is Not Required, But Timely Action Is Electric lighting Hot water heater Space heater Light duty vehicle Heavy duty vehicle Industrial boiler Electricity power plant Residential building 4 replacements 3 replacements 2 replacements 2 replacements 1 replacements 1 replacements 1 replacements 0 replacements Equipment/Infrastructure Lifetime (Years) A car purchased today, is likely to replaced at most 2 times before A residential building constructed today, is likely to still be standing in Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. ( page page 19 19

20 DDPP Summary of 16 Country Team Results

21 Aggregate emissions across DDPP country team scenarios Aggregate modeling consistent with a 2 degree scenario, although many emerging economies were not accounted for Most teams concluded it is both possible and affordable to reach the 1.7 tons/person target by midcentury page page 21 21

22 Average final energy consumption by fuel type across 16 country teams End-use electricity consumption doubles. This result was consistent across teams and is part of the third pillar of decarbonization (fuel switching) Coal, liquids, and natural gas consumption declines Bio/synthetic gas increases significantly (creates a net increase in gas consumption) page page 22 22

23 Average electricity emissions intensity across DDPP country teams End use electrification is paired with major changes in electricity generation to create a decarbonization strategy Electricity strategies varied by country but were some combination of renewables, nuclear, and CCS Aggregate installation of CCS reached 76.7 GW per year by 2050 page page 23 23

24 Technological learning from aggregate investments saved significant cost Applying conservative learning assumptions to technological deployment on the global aggregate investment reduced cost by nearly 50% when compared to a scenario where each country went alone. page 24

25 Acknowledgements Thank you to Jim Williams, director of the DDPP, and Ben Haley, current head of the U.S. DDPP team and co-founder of Evolved Energy Research The U.S. DDPP work was preformed while at Energy and Environmental Economics (E3) with help and inspiration from many of my former colleagues Snuller Price, Fredrich Kahrl, Jack Moore, Gabe Kwok, Sam Borgeson, Jamil Farbes, Elaine Hart, Amber Mahone, Rich Plevin, Katie Pickrell, Ren Orans Thank you also to our co-authors at partner organizations, Andrew Jones, Margaret Torn, and Haewon McJeon page 25

26 THANK YOU 2443 Fillmore Street, No San Francisco, CA, (415) deepdecarbonization.org

27 Current Energy System Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. ( page 27

28 2050 Energy System Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. ( page 28

29 Deep Decarbonization Problem-Solving: Some Novel Solutions Electricity used to produce hydrogen and synthetic methane balance variable generation (wind, solar) & provide lower carbon fuel Natural gas pipeline is partly decarbonized using gasified biomass and electricity-produced fuels with low lifecycle emissions Decarbonized pipeline gas is used to replace liquid fossil fuels in industry, heavy duty transport Biomass not used for ethanol because it is scarce and has better uses, such as biogas and biodiesel, while alternatives exist for LDV fuels Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. ( page 29

30 Small Change in Consumer Costs Monthly Incremental Costs Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. ( page 30

31 EJ Lamps/Bulbs Billions Residential Demand (lumens/year) PATHWAYS Model Methodology: Bottom-Up Energy Demand Lighting Stock T8 T12 Halogen LED CFL Incandescent E E E E E E E E E E E+00 T12 Service Demand LEDs CFLs = Total Residential Final Energy for Lighting Infrastructure stock rollover model (keeps track of stuff e.g. Number of light bulbs by type) Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. ( page 31

32 EJ Electricity Increasingly Dominated by Non-Dispatchable Generation Wind Solar Intermediate Energy Carriers Industrial 15 Hydro Transportation Nuclear Fossil CCS Commercial Residential Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. ( page 32

33 What technologies are the winners and losers? (demand side) page 33

34 Material Produced by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. ( 34 Different Pathways to 80% Reduction Scenario High Renewables High Nuclear High CCS Mixed Electric generation ~ 70% wind, solar, geothermal ~40% nuclear ~55% CCS Mix of nuclear, CCS, renewable Fuel strategy Main transport fuel Light duty vehicle Decarbonize pipeline gas to replace liquid fuel Electricity, pipeline gas, fossil diesel Hydrogen from electricity to replace liquid fuel Hydrogen, biofuel, fossil diesel Limited fuel switching, some biofuels Electricity, biodiesel Decarbonize pipeline gas to replace liquid fuel Mix of hydrogen, electricity, fossil, pipeline gas EV, PHEV FCV EV, PHEV Mix of EV, PHEV, FCV Pipeline gas ~60% biomass, 15% fossil NG, 15% synthetic NG ~60% fossil NG, 35% biomass ~80% fossil NG ~80% biomass, 7% hydrogen, 7% synthetic NG