Impacts of climate change on I di Agriculture

Transcription

1 Impacts of climate change on I di Agriculture A i lt Indian

2 Mandate CRIDA research To undertake basic and applied in the rainfed areas. To act as a repository of information on rainfed agriculture in the country. To provide leadership and coordinate network research with SAUs for generating locationspecific technologies. To act as a center for training in research methodologies in the fields basic to management of rainfed-farming systems. To collaborate with relevant national and international agencies in achieving the above objectives. To provide consultancy.

3 AICRPAM and AICRPDA Centers location map Two coordinated d Projects Agrometeorology Dryland Agriculture

4 Climate variability and change

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6 Climate Change and Indian Agriculture Large country with diverse climate Two thirds area rain dependent High monsoon dependency Diverse seasons, crops and farming systems Close link between climate and water resources Small holdings, poor coping mechanisms and low penetration of risk management products

7 Weather Impacts on Agriculture Rainfall drives water availability and determines Sowing time (rainfed crops) Temperature drives crop growth, duration; influences milk production in animals and spawning in fish Temperature, re RH influence pest and diseases incidence on crops, livestock and poultry Radiation influences the photosynthetic productivity Wet & dry spells cause significant impact on standing crops, physiology, loss of economic products (eg. fruit drop) Extreme events (eg. high rainfall/floods/heat wave/cold wave/cyclone /hail/frost) cause enormous losses of standing crops, live stock and fisheries

8 Impacts observed through modeling/ experimentation Kharif crops to be impacted more by rainfall variability while rabi crops by minimum temperature Wheat is likely to be negatively impacted in rabi due to terminal heat stress Rice in the IGP to be impacted both by temperature and water availability Legume crops like soybean and groundnut are likely to be benefited due to increased temperature/co 2 if water availability is not limited Milk yield in livestock to be impacted during heat waves Changes in breeding season in marine fisheries with shift in seasonal catch Significant negative impact on commercial poultry due to heat stress More opportunities for rain water harvesting due to high intensity rainfall but pp g g y greater loss of top soil due to erosion

9 Impacts Overall Negative impact on rice, wheat and horticulture Neutral or positive on some crops like soybean, groundnut, coconut, potato in some zones Impact on livestock and fisheries still to be better understood Short term impacts in years (in the range of 4-6%) but long term impacts could be as high as 25% (with business as usual scenario) Short term impacts can be addressed through better deployment of existing technologies backed by few policy initiatives while long term impacts require strategic research on a long term and a major policy changes

10 Wheat Impacts on wheat and rice 2030 scenario Rice ld (%) Change in yiel Haryana Punjab Uttar Pradesh Bihar State Reduce the irrigated wheat production by 6% Adaptation strategies can not only offset the production losses but can increase the yields

11 Groundnut, soybean and coconut likely to benefit Simula ated average rainfed groun ndnut yield (Kg/ha) Average simulated rainfed groundnut yields under current and future scenarios in major crop growing regions of India

12 Chan nge (%) from curr rent levels Impactof climatechange change on potato production in different regions of India NW Plains NE Plains Plateau regions Potato growing regions Global lclimate change may raise production of potato in Punjab, Haryanaand western and central UP by 3.46 to 7.11% in A1b 2030 scenario, but in rest of India particularly West Bengal and plateau region potato production may decline by 4 to 16%. Such climatic changes are likely to result in increased soybean yields by 8 13%. Effect of climate change on groundnut is likely to be variable with yields varying between 5 and +7% as compared to current yields.

13 Projected impact of climate change on coconut yield PRECIS A1B 2030 PRECIS A1B 2080

14 Shiftinapple cultivation to higher elevations due to non fulfillment of chilling requirement Increase in temperature did not show any significant impact on productivity of other temperate fruits like Peach, Plum and Pear Unseasonal rainfall in March 2008 cashew was affected The tea crop in mid hill regions also showed a decrease in yield with increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall 1400 Cumulative ch hill units y = x Yield (Tons) Years Years

15 Climate variation has profound influence on mango phenology Photograph showing flowering during the month of February 2010 on already bearing tree in Bangalore

16 Currently available technology can cope with short term impacts eg. Wheat 12 mean yields of Scenario 2020 Change from Impact Current variety and improved management Improved variety and current management Improved variety and altered management Improved variety and improved management and NRM 8 Adaptation strategy

17 Station DOS Maize Crop Water Requirement Area (ha) of the Total Water Requirement (mm) crop in State (Mi. cu meters) ( ) Udaipur (Rajasthan) 25-Jun Jhabua (MP) 20-Jun Karimnagar (AP) 15-Jun CWR % Deviation in % Deviation in Crop Water Requirement from Rajasthan Andhra Pradesh Madhya Pradesh

18 Groundnut Station DOS Crop Water Requirement Area (ha) of Total Water Requirement (mm) the crop in (Mi. cu meters) State ( ) Rajkot (Gujarat) 15-Jun Anantapur (AP) 15-Jun Belgaum (Karnataka) 15-Jun % Deviation in CWR % Deviation in Crop Water Requirement from Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Karnataka

19 Year Climate during the recent past SWM Rainfall Departure (%) Extreme Events 2002 drought 20 day heat wave during May 2003 in Andhra Pradesh Extreme cold winter in the year Drought like situation in India in July 2004 Abnormal temperatures during March 2004 and Jan 2005 Floods in 2005 Cold wave Floods in arid Rajasthan & AP and drought in NE regions in 2006 Abnormal temperatures during 3 rd week of Jan to 1 st week of Feb 2007 All India Severe drought One of warmest years 2011 Failure of September rains in AP 2012 Drought in Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat and Karnataka. Neelam cyclone, AP floods

20 Impact of extreme weather events: cold wave in North Papaya wheat Jatropha Frost observation Mustard Ice flakes Ice formation on leaves mustard

21 Extreme event : Heat Wave in AP in 2003 Custard Apple is tolerant to High temperatures Andhra Pradesh 20 lakhs birds died in May & June 2003 Total Loss by 27 Crores Continuous higher temperatures during critical growth stages of rabi crops reduces the crop yields considerably Live stock : Heat wave can reduce a milk yield by 10 30% in first lactation and 5 20% in second and third lactation periods in cattle and buffaloes it also effect the growth, puberty and maturity of crossbreed of cows and buffaloes Fish : Mortality of fish lings in shallow water ponds. Reduction in fish catch in the water bodies due to movement of fish into the deeper layers NPCC

22 Can we reduce weather induced crop losses? Yes Accurate and timely Weather support (Forecast) If. Timely Agromet advisory Faster communication to farmer To some extent Significantly 22

23 Subdivision wise daily rainfall chart p// p

24 Weather forecasting and Contingency Planning Parliamentary committee on agriculture recommended preparation of district level Contingency plans for various situations ti ICAR is preparing district level contingency plans for the entire country covering crops, livestock and fisheries The contingencies covered are droughts, floods, heat and cold waves, frost, unseasonal rains, cyclones etc. Effective operationalisation of these contingency plans requires reliable district level forecasts of all types Dedicated district level contingency plan implementation cells will be set up in XII plan under NMSA under the overall supervision of DoAC

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26 Districts with more than 50% deficit rainfall up to 15 th August 2012 (95 districts) Districts with more than 50% deficit rainfall upto 22 nd August 2012 (87 districts)

27 Automatic Weather Stations Network nicra aws.in aws.in KVK location map Agro climatic Zone States CRIDA Number of AWS locations I J & K, HP, Punjab and Haryana 11 II A & N Islands, Bihar, Jharkhand and W, Bengal 14 III Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Tripura 16 and Sikkim IV UP and Uttarakhand 13 V AP & Maharashtra 16 VI Gujarath & Rajasthan 9 VII Chhathisgarh, MP and Orrissa 13 VIII Karnataka, Kerala and Tamilnadu Pilot testing of customized agro advisories at block/thaluk level through SAU-KVK interface based on real time feed back- 25 AICRPAM centres and KVKs AWS installed at Hayatnagar Research Farm (HRF), CRIDA

28 IMD issues forecast and agromet advisories at district level With advancements in technology, blanket recommendations of agromet advisories at district level become grossly inadequate. In order to achieve block and village level advisories, AICRPAM NICRA has evolved a pilot methodology in collaboration with KVK, Belgaum.

29 Development and dissemination of Agromet Advisories Belgaum District: ( 10 talukas) Bulletin preparation for 10 talukas on single day is impossible Subhumid Talukas (5) Semiarid Taluks (5) Data inputs from FIF: Monday Data inputs from FIF: Thursday Advisory development and dissemination: Friday Advisory development and dissemination: Tuesday of Advisory y Bulletin sent From the ID of KVK and in the name of PC KVK Field Information Faciliators NGO Print out given to individual selected farmers Asst. Director of Agriculture (Taluka) Print out of bulletin to Agriculture Officers at RSK (Hobli) Visit to KSDA office to p pursue dissemination Visit to farmers field, and informal awareness creation to implement weather based farming operations

30 National Initiative on Climate Project Components Resilient Agriculture Strategic Research Technology Demonstration Sponsored/Competitiv e Research Capacity Building

31 Project Strategy Strategic research to address long term climate change Technology demonstration to help farmers cope with current climate variability Capacity building of different stakeholders for greater awareness and community action

32 N 100 Districts selected for Technology Demonstration Map not to scale Cold wave Cold wave & Drought Cold wave, Drought & Frost Cyclone Cyclone & Flood Drought Drought & Cold wave Drought & Flood Drought & Heat wave Drought & Salinity Flood Flood & Cyclone Flood & Salinity Frost Frost & Cold wave Heat wave & Cold wave Heavy rainfall High temperature Salinity & Water logging Scanty rainfall & Salinity Water stress Water stress, Soil erosion & Soil acidity

33 Process Identification of vulnerable districts Choosing representative village cluster Characterization of climatic stresses Need assessment and baseline Formation of VCRMC Finalization of interventions through a participatory process Implementation and monitoring The unique feature is the flexibility in interventions depending on the real time weather

34 Modules Module I : Natural resources Interventions related to soil health, in-situ moisture conservation, water harvesting and recycling for supplemental irrigation, improved drainage in flood prone areas, conservation tillage where appropriate, artificial ground water recharge and water saving irrigation methods. Module II : Crop Production Drought/temperature tolerant varieties, advancement of planting dates of rabi crops in areas with terminal heat stress, water saving paddy cultivation methods (SRI, aerobic, direct seeding), frost management in horticulture through fumigation, community nurseries for delayed monsoon, custom hiring centres for timely planting, location specific it intercroppingi systems

35 Modules contd.. Module III : Livestock and Fisheries Use of community lands for fodder production during droughts/floods, improved fodder/feed storage methods, preventive vaccination, improved shelters for reducing heat stress in livestock, management of fish ponds/tanks during water scarcity and excess water, etc. Module IV : Institutional Interventions Institutional interventions either by strengthening the existing ones or initiating new ones relating to seed bank, fodder bank, commodity groups, custom hiring centre, collective marketing group, introduction of weather index based insurance and climate literacy through a village weather station will be part of this module. Documentations of indigenous coping mechanisms in all the 100 districts is part of this component (which will be made as a compendium)

36 Key interventions ti and outcomes A snap shot across the country

37 Launch at the Village sites In each launch all the stakeholders in the district were brought together...and the programme objectives are explained

38 District: Saran, Bihar Coping with monsoon delay: Direct Seeded Rice Yield (q/ha) % Economics of demonstration (Rs./ha) Economics of Local (Rs./ha) Demo Local increas Gross Gross Net BCR Gross Gross Net BCR e Cost Return Return Cost Return Return Impact of the intervention 1. Saving in 25 liters of HSD in transplanting 2. Saving in 5 hours in tractor operation 3. Saving in 35 Man days in uprooting and transplanting of seedlings 4. Pump set hours reduced by 3 /ha

39 District: Saran, Bihar Community Nursery for staggered seedling production

40 Staggered comunity Nursery Gumla, Jharkhand Objective : Coping strategy towards erratic rain fall Staggered date of sowing 25/ 6/12 01/ 7/12 08/ 7/12 15/ 7/12 22/ 7/12

41 Advancing Planting date to escape from terminal heat / drought Satna, MP % increase in yield Crop Normal Intervention Mustard Last week of Oct to Ist week of Nov 1-15 Oct. Wheat Dec Nov. 20 Chick pea Last week of Oct to Ist week of Nov Oct Mustard Wheat Chick pea Nov,4,2011 Oct,13,2011 Dec,17,2011 Nov,19,2011

42 Community seedbank: Dubri, Assam Intervention Maintenance of seed bank Purpose -Quality seed of submergence tolerant and short duration late transplanted rice varieties for flood affected area -Quality seed of summer rice and toria for rabi

43 Minimizing loss of fish during floods: - Dubri, Assam Key interventions Placement of nylon net along the periphery of pond dykes. Renovation of dykes of ponds and establishment of horticultural plants Purpose Prevent escape of cultured fish and entry of predatory fish. Prevent water contamination and change in water quality Prevent escape of cultured fish and entry of predatory fish.

44 Integrated Farming System: Kendrapara, Orissa 2. Farm Pond Component- Fishery+ Horticulture+ Duckery Area-2.5 No of pond renovated- 3 nos No of Farmer Benefited-25 no To increase water productivity, water use efficiency and better Land Husbandry Practices It will store run-off water. Recharging of ground water. Increase the availability of moisture. Provide life saving irrigation during drought. Generate employment. Fishery- Catla, rahu and mirgal Duckery Khaki cambel, White runner Horti Coconut, Mango & Banana

45 Name of the VCRMC VCRMC, Sanora, Barodi VCRMC- Key institutional Intervention Village Climate Risk Management Committee (VCRMC) Village name Sanora, Barodi No. of members 12 Bank details Name of Bank A/C no. Amount (Rs.) Panjab NationalBank Bank, Branch Datia (M.P.) Name of VCRMC Sh. Ratan Singh Yadav (President), Sh. Umashankar Sharma (Secretary), Sh. Chhatrapal Pateria (Treasure), Sh. Kallu Sharma, Sh. Rajesh Sharma, Sh. Sobran Parihar, Sh. Moolchandra Namdev, Sh. Raju Sharma, Sh. Munna Lal Yadav, Sh. Sugreev Yadav, Sh. Devi Singh, Sh. Lakhan Singh Yadav (Members). Site Office and Scientist team of NICRA Meeting of VCRMC KRISHI VIGYAN KENDRA, DATIA (M.P.) Account Passbook

46 Farmers awareness programs on Climate Change Faizabad Parbhani Dapoli

47 WEATHER INSURENCE An insurance product based on a weather index. The basic idea of weather insurance is to estimate the percentage deviation in crop output due to adverse weather conditions. Unlike regular insurance, which would only cover physical damage, weather insurance protects against additional expenses or loss of profit from specific bad weather events. An analysis of Indian Crop Insurance Program between 1985 and 2003 reveals that rainfall accounted for nearly 95 percent claims 85 percent because of deficit rainfall and 10 percent because of excess rainfall. Financial protection based on the performance of specified index in relation to a specified trigger. Detailed correlation analysis is carried out to ascertain the way weather impacts yields of the crops to arrive at compensation levels. Weather indices could be deficit/excess rainfall extreme fluctuations of Weather indices could be deficit/excess rainfall,extreme fluctuations of temperature, relative humidity and/or a combination of above.

48 Crop Calendar and Rainfall Pattern Stages Tim me Presowing Seedling Vegetative Reproductive Maturity 11-24Jun 25Jun-15Jul 16Jul-26Aug 27Aug-7Oct 8Oct-11Nov 2 weeks 3 weeks 6 weeks 6 weeks 5.5 weeks Wat ter require ement 40-60mm 50-70mm mm mm 40mm 180mm 190mm 50mm 60mm 40mm Rainfall required Output Source: Vivek Pawale, Galileo Weather Risk Management Ltd

49 Deviation in rainfall and impact on yield ages St Presowing Seedling Vegetative Reproductive Maturity Time 11-24Jun 25Jun-15Jul 16Jul-26Aug 27Aug-7Oct 8Oct-11Nov 2 weeks 3 weeks 6 weeks 6 weeks 5.5 weeks Water requirement 40-60mm 50-70mm mm mm 40mm Loss in yield 190mm 180mm 50mm 60mm 70mm 90mm 40mm Rainfall required Actual Rainfall recorded Output Source: Vivek Pawale, Galileo Weather Risk Management Ltd

50 Loss payment through weather insurance ages St Time Water requirement Presowing Seedling Vegetative Reproductive Maturity Payout: 11-24Jun 25Jun-15Jul 16Jul-26Aug 27Aug-7Oct (Strike actual 8Oct-11Nov rainfall) 2 weeks 3 weeks 6 weeks 6 weeks * Notional, 5.5 weeks eg e.g. INR20/mm 40-60mm 50-70mm mm mm 40mm Retention Strike 180mm 70mm Strike 190mm 70mm 50mm 60mm 70mm 90mm 40mm Rainfall required Actual Rainfall recorded Output Loss payment Source: Vivek Pawale, Galileo Weather Risk Management Ltd

51 Location specific crop weather calendars would be very helpful in preparation of Agromet advisory Bulletins.

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53 Annual rainfall trends Station Data Gridded Data IMD (1 O X 1 O ) Number of stations 867 Data period : Data period : J&K state is showing increasing trend decreasing trend. with station data where as gridded data shows MP, Gujarat and some part of Maharashtra states is showing either increasing or decreasing trend with station data where as gridded data is shows no significant trend AICRPAM,CRIDA

54 Annual rainfall trend using mandal level data Annual rainfall trend using IMD grid data (1128 mandals) (24 grid points) Data Period Non Significant Increasing Decreasing NA Reserve Forest Non Significant Increasing AICRPAM, CRIDA AICRPAM, CRIDA Increasing trend in annual rainfall at Anantapur and Khammam districts with mandal level data but no trend with grid data Decreasing trend is showing in Adialabd with mandal level data but grided data is not showing any trend Medak district showing decreasing trend with mandal level data where as grid point is not available for Medak district

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