Global Warming and Indian Sundarbans: Need for a Systems Approach

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1 Global Warming and Indian Sundarbans: Need for a Systems Approach Joyashree Roy Professor of Economics and Coordinator, Global Change Programme Jadavpur University, Kolkata: , India, Concern India with a coast line of 6000 km and around 400 million people (SHARP 2006) living along the coastline has enough reasons to get concerned after the release of scientific information compiled, assessed and disseminated through two major recently published documents : Fourth Assessment Report of WGI of the Inter Governmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) and Stern Review Reports (2007). Widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level are the observed facts today. Even if desired stabilization of GHGs are achieved sea level rise will continue for several decades (Sathaye et.al, 2006). The Stern Review on economic impacts of these physical impacts strengthens the justification for concern. Coastal belts are more prone to the devastations of global warming as agriculture suffers most. Assessments show though with limited evidence that 1m sea level rise can lead to welfare loss of US$ 1259 million in India equivalent to 0.36% of GNP (Roy et al 2006). In predicted climate variability scenarios, frequencies and intensities of tropical cyclones in Bay of Bengal will increase particularly in post monsoon period and increased flooding in low lying coastal areas. Short term data analysis show, by 2050, cumulative mean sea level elevation in Bay of Bengal near Indian Sundarbans may be closer to 1m with anticipated loss of 15% land area by 2020 (Hazra 2002). Limited evidence is not able to show with high level of confidence of this predicted rise how much is for local natural trend and how much is due to human induced global warming phenomenon. Sundabrbans: Over View Located along the Bay of Bengal, is the Sundarbans, a National Park in India (1984), the World Heritage site (1985) and a Biosphere Reserve (1989). Conservation of this biosphere reserve has regional significance as this largest contiguous area of mangrove forest in the world forming an integral part of the delta region at the mouth of Ganga, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers is shared by India (40%) and Bangladesh (60%) and provides vital ecological functions for the coastal south Asian region. It covers approximately 10,000 km of forest and water with Indian share of 4,260 sq km of reserved forest managed by the Sundarbans Tiger Reserve (2,600 sq km) and the Forest Division (1,660 sq km) of the South 24 Parganas district of West Bengal. 5,400 sq km of inhabited, non-forest area exists on the north and northwestern fringe of the mangrove forest. The Indian Sundarbans, lying south of Dampier-Hodges Line, comprises thirteen blocks in 24 Parganas South District and 6 blocks in 24 Parganas North District and has a total population of 4.1 million as per 2001 census (UNDP, 2003).

2 Natural subsidence is a feature of this delta with an eastward tilt (Hazra et al 2002) causing freshwater discharge through Bangladesh. Past experiences of intense cyclone, frequent storm surges, salt water intrusion, coastal flooding adds to the concern. The welfare implication of the impacts of local natural environment and global predicted climate variability gets complicated in a low (below state average) adaptive capacity of the region. Challenges: Development Choices Challenges are posed by additional threat from predicted warming effect and seal level rise in the context of fragile but vital ecosystem and huge population load. Most pertinent question is how current developmental investment and local stakeholders are including these concerns, in decision making process. Given the nature of the ecosystem with incomparable value (GOI 2006), to address human well being through vulnerability reduction, would mean conservation of the unique ecosystem that can make income less uncertain through maintenance of the natural capital stock, human capacity building and substituting natural capital by manmade capital following precautionary principles determined by safe minimum standard. To understand the extent and intensity of these challenges let us analyse the past and ongoing development choices and coping capapcity. Most important development choice with relevance to sea level rise in Sundarbans is in the shoreline protection through embankments. Major engineering intervention which started in 1770 through 3500 km long embankment construction changed the demographic pattern and disregarded the natural ecosystem. Embankment was created by hiring labour from neighbouring districts and states who later became settlers there and started agricultural activity. Besides this development induced migration and human induced land use pattern change, creation of embankment itself led to major interference with the natural environment causing conversion of forest land for creating human settlement and embankment itself through reclamation. The current population pressure has a historical past and past development choice has led to irreversibilities that throws up a major challenge of resettlement for environmental refugees to day given the fragile nature of the ecosystem and consequent carrying capacity. In recent past development choices have been more market driven. Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) predicts that in this century, world consumption of aquatic proteins will increase to million tons. Bulk of the increase will need to come from aquaculture. About 70% of the shrimps are produced on India s east coast. The expansion of the shrimp production capacity has involved a variety of investors, ranging from large scale investors (including multinational companies) to traditional farmers who have converted paddy fields to shrimp ponds. Next to Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal has the highest area under shrimp cultivation with 60% and 30% respectively shares in total shrimp cultivation area. Existing shrimp farms sell 70.27% of their production in domestic market. Rapid change in land use pattern is observed

3 consequent upon globalisation trend since The traditional fisheries are getting converted to commercial fisheries through aquaculture. The mangrove-shrimp linkage in the Sundarbans is different from that of other locations. There is little encroachment of shrimp farms into mangrove forests. However, the location of shrimp farms in the Sundarbans on agricultural land shifts the burden away from mangroves. But conversion of private farmland is associated with pollution, land degradation, land and water salinisation and food insecurity imposing social cost. Conversion to aquaculture ponds have induced further embankments. Passing of the Coastal Aquaculture Authority Bill (June 2005) in India's Parliament has the objective to: increase the area under shrimp cultivation, investment in the sector, intensify production. The anticipated rapid growth of the shrimp aquaculture industry has generated debate within the sustainability paradigm: regarding its contribution to economic growth, distribution of its benefits and costs, the environmental and ecological impacts, and the extent of public participation. An important indicator of sustainability and poverty status is food security. Declining access to food and basic needs worsen the poverty situation. Low productivity characterizes the sundarban shrimp farming. Production within the range of 0 to 20 kg/100 m 2 is well below the neighbouring state Orissa s (Dhamara) productivity of 21 to 40 kg/100 m 2. More recent development choices are also in no way different than traditional development pathway which causes vulnerability and does not mainstream ecosystem resilience. Huge investments projects on infrastructure are still guided more by engineering design, civil works, ground water abstraction etc. rather than integrated approach of eco-friendly shoreline protection, rain water harvesting, innovating institutional arrangements etc. Approximately 80% of the development funds are spent on road construction, bridges, civil works etc. Very recently mangrove protection, ecotourism etc are also highlighted as discrete developmental objectives rather than as a development agenda with a ecosystem approach. Challenges: Coping Capacity Vulnerability is determined not by impacts only but by coping capacity also. Within sustainability paradigm LIFE approach (Ghosh and Roy 2006) as well as CSI (Roy et al 2007) substantiates high vulnerability ( GoWB, 2005) of the Sundarbans. Less diversified Livelihood options, Lack of appropriate Institutions to mainstream climate variability in development choice by clearly defining land rights, land value etc., declining land mass and increasing population pressure is threatening the Food security, and low Empowerment reflected in income, education and access to basic needs, all below state level average, singifies low adaptive capacity. Sustainability index defined in terms of economic, environmental and social parameters indicate unsustainability of the current development pathway. Climate variability will add to this unsustainability unless proactive alternative development pathways is followed that includes conscious responses to predicted climate variability.

4 We hypothesize that high coping capacity is associated with a diversified occupational pattern that make livelihood less risky. Coping capacity is low as primary source of livelihood is agriculture, with majority of them being either small or marginal farmers (85%) or landless agricultural labourers. Traditional developmental pathway initially determined the primary occupation pattern based on agricultural activities, which till date provides livelihood option for 90% of the population. Other traditional economic activities using natural inputs like honey collection, fishery and other services continued to provide livelihood options for the rest. Past and ongoing developmental efforts have depleted the productive base of the economy. Tidal flats, agricultural land, mangrove forests declined over time, while abandoned aquaculture ponds, degraded mangrove, salt marshes have increased (GoWB 2005). Over a period of one decade mangrove area has declined in Sundarbans from 420 (1987) hectares to 212 (1997) hectares. No appropriate valuation has been done to assess the monetary damage due to these physical changes in natural capital due to development choices and natural erosion. Consistent with sustainable development agenda any development related investment need to ensure how natural capital along with manmade and human capital are maintained to get an estimate of genuine investment and evaluation criteria needs to be consistent with Green accounting. Sustainable Adaptation Strategies Goal of mainstreaming climate variability would mean systems approach where shoreline protection, livelihood issue and social mobility all can be addressed. In this context single most important conservation agenda in Sundarbans can be investment in Mangrove if goals are to sustain flow of ecological, economic, social and cultural services and reduce social conflicts. Mangrove forests are vital for unique coastal eco-systems. Mangrove trees have specially adapted aerial and salt-filtering roots and salt excreting leaves, which help them to occupy the saline wetlands where other plant life cannot survive. The fallen leaves and branches from the mangroves, provides nutrients for the marine environment and support immense varieties of sea life in intricate food webs. The shallow intertidal reaches that characterize the mangrove wetlands offer refuge and nursery grounds for juvenile fish, crabs, shrimps and mollusks. Mangroves are also prime nesting and migratory sites for numerous bird species. Additionally manatees, crab-eating monkeys, fishing cats, monitor lizards, sea turtles and mudskipper fish utilize the mangrove wetlands. Acting as an interface between land and sea mangroves help protect coastlines from erosion, storm damage and wave action. They prevent shoreline erosion by acting as buffers and catch alluvial materials, thus stabilizing land elevation by sediment accretion that balances sediment loss. Vital coral reefs and sea grass beds are also protected from damaging siltation. Mangrove to provide global sink capacity, maintain ecological functions to support biodiversity and sustain economic livelihood flowing from ecological service flow locally and regionally (Khaddaria et al 2004). Mangrove swamps are considered very suitable for shrimp farming. Green accounting framework can show explicitly land loss, soil quality deterioration, forest depletion, habitat loss, water quality change. If market conditions are allowed to

5 drive the land use pattern, then it is necessary to revise the market prices through correct valuation of land in the light of ecological values. Increasing demand on land for alternative uses and declining land stock is bound to lead to conflict between government sponsored conservation efforts and local livelihood opportunities. Eco tourism for reducing forest dependence cannot be sustained unless livelihood of locals is guaranteed. The study shows that an additional hand in tourism job for a household could reduce its forest dependence directly by 23%. Recreational service demand needs to be managed through entry fee rationalization that can increase revenue as well as promote conservation. Recreational demand studies through Zonal Travel Cost Model (Guha and Ghosh 2007) show huge potential for revenue generation. Currently 78% of the local service providers/traders (Guha and Ghosh 2006) operate with limited capital investment but can improve their livelihood status by 24%. Farmers have traditionally practiced low-intensity shrimp rotation culture with rice. This practice provided farmers with an alternative source of food using environmentally benign techniques. Agricultural land conversion needs to be better managed in terms of regulations on the extent (zoning, etc.) and intensity (stocking density, chemical inputs, etc.) of shrimp farming. Likelihood of social conflict between shrimp farming, fry collection and the capture shrimp fishery are strong. Shrimp farming via the collection of fry has a significantly negative impact on the offshore shrimp fishery. The dependence of shrimp farmers in West Bengal, unlike in other states, on collection of shrimp fry is due to a lack of hatcheries in this state. Despite the ban on fry collection in the coastal zone of India, it is not enforced in West Bengal, as there are more than 50,000 fry collectors in the Sundarbans (SHARP 2006). Fry collectors are a marginal group, and hence are vulnerable to further marginalisation if the ban on fry collection is enforced. Many fry collectors, predominantly women and children, suffer from health problems. If collectors are going to be persuaded to abandon fry collection, finding alternative income generating opportunities for them will have to take priority. Hatcheries, organic shrimp farming can be alternative sustainable options. Concluding Remarks On going natural erosion and accretion processes is likely to be worsened in predicted climate change scenario,. To address vulnerability adaptation strategy needs to be based on ecosystem approach. Local scale climate predictions are not yet available to help mainstreaming climate predictions in development agenda. It is urgent need to generate the vulnerability map over a time scale of at least fifty years to address the issues of long term development plans in this region. Given all the uncertainties, based on precautionary principle, immediate action can be making necessary institutional changes and sharing of information about the regulations, land use management and adoption of green accounting framework to help in making genuine investment decisions. The importance of mangroves should be promoted through economic valuation of mangroves, leading to increased levels of reforestation and conservation.

6 References Government of India (2006) National environment policy, New Delhi. Government of West Bengal (2005) Workshop-cum-seminar on embankments of sundarbans and related issues: A commemorative volume. Institue if Education Research and Evaluation, Kolkata. Ghosh Anupa and Joyashree Roy (2006) Coping with Extreme Climatic Events: Analysis of Household and Community Responses from Selected Hotspots in India, Science and Culture, Special Issue on Flood Disaster, Risk Reduction in Asia, Vol 72. No.1-2, January-February. pp Guha I and, S, Ghosh (2006), Conservation, Tourism and Village Economy: A Case Study in Indian Sundarbans, Global Change Programme of Jadavpur University (GCP- JU) Working paper Series GCP-JU-2006-SANDEE-WP1. Guha I and, S, Ghosh (2007), Recreational Demand in Indian Sundarbans: Estimation and Exploration, Global Change Programme of Jadavpur University (GCP- JU) Working paper Series GCP-JU-2006-SANDEE-WP2. Hazra S, T Ghosh, R Dasgupta and G Sen (2002), Sea Level and associated Changes in the Sundarbans, Science and Culture, vol 68, nos-9-12, pp IPCC (2007), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policymakers, : Khaddaria R, J Chowdhury, K Gupta, A C Gupta and J Roy (2004) Environmental Services and associated Economic activities of the Shrimp-Mangrove System in The Indian Coastal Zone of the Bay of Bengal with emphasis on Sundatbans in West Bengal. Working paper Series of Global Change Programme Jadavaput Universiy, GCP-JU- SHARP-1. Roy Joyashree, Bikram Chatterjee and Sruti Basak (2007), Towards a Composite Sustainability Index: How are the States and Union Territories of India doing? Working papers series of Global Change Programme, Jadavpur university, GGCP-JU /2007/EXC- 1. Roy Joyashree, A Ghosh, G Barua (2006), The Economics of Climate Change, A Review of Studies in the Context of South Asia with a Special Focus on India, Commissioned research report Submitted to Stern Review 2006, ex.cfm.

7 Sathaye J, P.R. shukla, N.H. Ravindranath (2006), Climate Change, sustainable development and India: Global and National concerns, Current Science, Fen 10, vol 90, no 3. Shastry Applied Research Project-SHARP (2006), Assessing Environmental Management Options to achieve Sustainability in the Shrimp Mangrove System in Indian Coastal Zone of Bay of Bengal. A brief report ( of the Project Assessing Environmental Management Options to Achieve Sustainability in the Shrimp-Mangrove System in the Indian Coastal Zone of the Bay of Bengal SHATP Project #46031 jointly managed by Global Change Programme of Jadavpur University (GCP-JU), India and Simon Fraser University, Canada. Stern Review (2006), The Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, London. Executive Summary, UNDP (2003): Project Document, Sustainable Environment & Energy Division, Strengthening Sustainable Livelihoods for Biodiversity Conservation in Sundarbans, Web: data.undp.org.in/seed/sundarbans_pd.doc.