Climate Change Vulnerability, Hazards & Risk Assessment and Adaptation Projects for Kullu District. Dr. Mustafa Ali Khan Team Leader, IHCAP

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1 Climate Change Vulnerability, Hazards & Risk Assessment and Adaptation Projects for Kullu District Dr. Mustafa Ali Khan Team Leader, IHCAP

2 IHCAP: Supporting Country System Anchored under framework agreement on technical and scientific cooperation, 2003 between the Government of Switzerland and the Government of India IHCAP functions as a technical and knowledge partner for implementation of the National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem (NMSHE) IHCAP Goal: resilience of vulnerable communities in the Himalayas is strengthened and knowledge and capacities of research institutions, communities and decision-makers are connected and enhanced IHCAP Phase 1 ( ); Phase 2 ( )

3 COLLABORATION WITH GOVERNMENT OF HIMACHAL PRADESH Since 2012, SDC and Department of Environment, Science and Technology (DEST) are cooperating under Indian Himalayas Climate Adaptation Programme (IHCAP) Focus areas: Capacity Building and Training Programme on Climate Change Adaptation Planning and Implementation for State Government officials Technical Assistance for development of an adaptation project on climate smart agriculture under National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change Indo-Swiss Collaborative Research on Integrated Vulnerability, Risks and Hazard Assessment in Kullu district Design of adaptation measures for Kullu district

4 ACTIVITIES IN HIMACHAL PRADESH ( ) 2016 Submission of detailed project on three priority adaptation measures to the State government: November 2016 Planned Activities ( ) Training programme on climate change adaptation planning and implementation: Opportunity to integrate modules on DRR Common framework for Vulnerability, Risks and Hazard Assessment (being developed by IISc) and training to State Climate Change Cells/Centre: Media awareness workshop: 2018 Multi Stakeholder Science Policy Practice Forum

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6 Demonstrating Evidence Based Adaptation Actions in Kullu Stage 1: Scoping to review baseline information, to identify vulnerable regions in Kullu districts ( ) Stage 2: Development of framework for the Collaborative Research ( ) Stage 3: Integrated Vulnerability & Risks and Hazards Assessment in Kullu district ( ) Stage 4: Identification of Adaptation options and development of proposals for their implementation (2016)

7 Process for Identifying Adaptation Projects in Kullu Indo Swiss Collaborative Research in Kullu provided the scientific basis Consultations held with community, officials of various departments, academicians and researchers and civil society organizations Identified a broad set of 9 adaptation concepts Multi Criteria Analysis used with multiple stakeholders in a consultative approach for prioritizing 3 Adaptation Concepts Meeting in Aug 2016 at Shimla with key line departments Detailed Proposals for 3 Adaptation Projects drafted Shared with Kullu district and HP State stakeholders at Shimla on 17 and 21 November 2016 respectively

8 Workshop held in Kullu for sharing the results of Assessment in Phase 1 and for prioritization of adaptation options (May 2016) Consultation workshop organized on 21 November 2016 at Shimla to finalize DPRs Consultations held with communities in GHNP (May 2016)

9 PRIORITIZED ADAPTATION OPTIONS Reducing Flood Risk in Parvati Valley of Kullu district, Himachal Pradesh Promoting Climate Resilient Agri-Horticulture in Banjar, Kullu district, Himachal Pradesh Ecosystem Based Adaptation in the Great Himalayan National Park, Kullu district, Himachal Pradesh

10 Climate Vulnerability, Hazards and Risk Kullu District Overview and Key Findings

11 Indo-Swiss Collaborative Research in Kullu Framework for Integrated Vulnerability and Risks Assessment developed Joint research work (India and Switzerland) on vulnerability, risks and hazards assessment in Kullu district in partnership with DEST, Government of Himachal Pradesh 40 contributing authors from 15 Indian and Swiss institutions involved in the study More than 10 studies on baseline and sectoral assessments undertaken More than 25 publications in scientific journals, national and international conferences Result of joint research in Kullu district; common framework will enable planning and implementation of adaptation actions at the state level One of the first studies to be based on the AR5 framework for assessing climate risk One of the most detailed study on Permafrost done in the IHR

12 VULNERABILITY & RISK FRAMEWORK Integrated risk framework based on IPCC AR Climate related risk results from a physical event (hazard) intercepting with an exposed and vulnerable system (eg, community or ecosystem) This risk assessment based approach was adopted for understanding climate vulnerability and climate induced hazards & risks for adaptation planning in Kullu District

13 Studies in Kullu: Framework Application Sectoral Scalar 1. a) b) c) 2. a) b) c) d) 3. Study Atmosphere/climate baseline data meteo-based baseline reconstruction proxy-based reconstruction modelling-based future assessments Cryosphere baseline data glaciers lakes permafrost snow Vulnerability and Hazard and Risk Assessment Community Perception IHR / State level GLOFs --> to village level Flood potential Extreme flood risk Village level / local Snow avalanches (Dhundi) Agri-Horticulture Forest/Biodiversity Tourism Swiss partner Indian partner framework component Meteodat UGE Meteodat/UFR/UZH HP SCST&E BSIP climate change climate change climate change UFR UGE/UZH UZH/UFR UZH HP SCST&E HP SCST&E HP SCST&E HP SCST&E climate change climate change climate change climate change Various UZH/UFR UBE UBE UBE Various Various Various GPIHED HP SCST&E HP SCST&E BSIP BSIP CSK Palampur GBPIHED Doon Univ. all components hazard and exposure hazard all components (case studies) hazard vulnerability and exposure vulnerability and exposure vulnerability and exposure

14 Key assessment findings Atmospheric Baseline Local climate assessment ( ) demonstrates increase in mean annual air temperatures across all elevation levels Increasing trend for spring temperatures of about 1 C over 30 years, stronger at higher elevations Cryospheric Baseline Fragmentation of glaciers observed. A total of 236 glaciers were mapped in 2002 (total area of 529 km2), whereas the same glaciers when mapped in 2006 have fragmented to become 242 individual glacier entities (total area of 489 km2) Assessment from 2002 and 2013 reveals an area loss of about 9 km² (~1.5%) and an increase in mean elevation of about 30 m

15 Key assessment findings Flood hazards at Kullu district (left) Most affected districts in Himachal Pradesh according to recorded flood events. (right) Triggers of recorded floods over the time period 1950 to 2014.

16 Key assessment findings Flood hazards at Kullu district Improved long-term process understanding and observe a positive trend More reliable regional flood frequency and estimate uncertainties

17 Key assessment findings We assess the elements-at-risk and provide a database with key hydro-info Flood hazard levels at Kullu district (left) and details of element-at-risk analyses at Parvati valley (right)

18 Key assessment findings Glacial lake outburst floods The GLOF hazard will increase across all Tehsils, a notable GLOF hot-spot will emerge in Kullu - > Parvati valley. We can demonstrate an increased threat to habitations, roads, and agricultural land.

19 Key assessment findings Vulnerability of the biodiversity sector Forest ecosystems provide wide-ranging economic and cultural services for local people. In the Parvati valley, 5 species were classed as Critically Endangered; 11 Endangered, 90 Vulnerable and 188 Near Threatened. Continued anthropogenic pressures and changing environmental conditions may lead to species extinction in the near future. The altitudinal shift in several species, and changing composition and structure of the forest communities has been observed. Particularly sub-alpine and alpine vegetation are considered most sensitive to climate change. The forest communities near to habitations were more vulnerable than the communities distant from the habitations due to the dependence of the communities on forests for their sustenance in various ways.

20 Key assessment findings Vulnerability of the agriculture sector Perceived climate impacts across the blocks of Kullu included: warmer and prolonged summers, delayed onset and uneven distribution of SW monsoon, shorter and warmer winters, decreasing snowfall during winters. Diseases in agriculture/horticulture crops are reaching higher altitudes, where they were not earlier reported. Some adaptation measures are already occurring, eg, a shift of the fruit belt to higher altitudes, a shift from vegetables like, tomato, cauliflower and cabbage to horticultural cash crops. Banjar was identified as a hot-spot of agricultural vulnerability, based on both quantitative assessment and farmers perceptions.

21 Climate Change Adaptation Projects for Kullu District

22 Adaptation Project 1 REDUCING FLOOD RISK IN PARVATI VALLEY OF KULLU DISTRICT, HIMACHAL PRADESH

23 Total No. of Lakes Parvati Valley Years Total no. of lakes Area (>10 hact.) Number of glacial lakes mapped manually from satellite data for Parvati Valley in Kullu district for the years 1989, 2002, 2006, 2011, 2013, 2014 Rationale Considerable increase in the formation of supra-glacial lakes due to retreat of glaciers High risk of floods due to climate change coupled with human induced activities Threat to the downstream inhabited areas, road infrastructure, agricultural land and hydroelectric projects. Formal monitoring and evaluation system required Flood hazard levels at Kullu district (left) and details of element-at-risk analyses at Parvati valley (right) Flood analyses has highlighted Parvati valley as one of the most vulnerable valleys in Kullu

24 Adaptation concept for reducing Flood Risk through Monitoring and Early Warning System in Parvati Valley To assess long-term hydro-meteorological conditions for the entire Parvati Valley To protect the identified risk hotspots along the valley Long Term CatchmentScale Monitoring Annual to seasonal information from remote sensing To ensure long-term operability and maintenance, acceptance, and success of the adaptation measures

25 Components of Community Driven EWS The schematic shows hydrological information of Parvati valley, highlighting the three components of the EWS as well as including some basic information, such as the risk hotspot areas, the concentration time (h), catchment area (km2) and 100-return period flood magnitude. Two of the components are around the warning of flash floods in small torrent catchments above the villages of Shat (EWS 1) and Kasol (EWS 2). The third component (EWS 3) is aimed at flood warnings along the main Parvati river channel. 25

26 Capacity building for EWSCommunity Connect Local messaging protocols Existing post disaster Response and Recovery Centre of District Administration will be strengthened Formation of committees and identify volunteers whose phones will be registered Training of community volunteer emergency responders to interpret warning messages Message dissemination protocol (bells, mobile, word of mouth, mediachannel, etc.) ensuring last mile connectivity Prioritisation of assets (Human, livestock, infrastructure, essenti al supplies) and stock essential supplies in each evacuation zone including medical supplies Identify safe evacuation routes Location of the safe shelter connection to relief route to be pre-defined 26

27 Project Implementation Arrangement University and Rearch Agencies State steering committee DEST PIA - State Council for Science, Technology &Environment CB partner (outsourced) M&E Agency IHCAP network NIE PIA (IPH) Service Providers (Development support Agency for CB) Service Providers (third party M&E)

28 Adaptation Project 2 PROMOTING CLIMATE RESILIENT AGRIHORTICULTURE IN BANJAR

29 Rationale Indicator based VA conducted for Kullu shows highest vulnerability for agriculture and horticulture for Banjar block Banjar is a socio-economically a backward region in the State Farmers experiencing climate change impacts increase in summer temperature delayed onset and uneven distribution of southwest monsoon increased incidence of hail delayed onset of winter Diseases in agricultural/horticultural crops reaching higher altitudes Shift of fruit belt to higher altitudes Shift from old varieties of apple to new varieties which show better results in lower altitudes

30 Rationale: Climate Stress and Impact Climate Stress Increase in spring temperature in range of 1 C over the last 30 years. The increase of spring temperature resulting to upward shift of the snowline with related impacts on precipitation, snow melt, glacier mass balance and lower chilling hours. Impact Low chilling hours impacting yield and quality of apple production at low altitude Frequent pest incidence. Increased variability in the rainfall pattern leading to increased demand for irrigation

31 Future Climate Projection (Based on Himachal Pradesh State Action Plan on Climate Change) Temperature is projected to increase by 0.9±0.6 C to 2.6±0.7 C by 2030s. The net increase in temperature ranges will be in the range of 1.7 C to 2.2 C with respect to the 1970s. The increase in temperature will further reduce the chilling hours availability Increased temperature will increase the evapotranspiration rate and water requirement for cultivation Variability in the rainfall pattern and erratic rainfall pattern Further worsen the surface water and ground water availability due to reduce percolation of water/ground water recharge Non timely availability of rainfall will impact the breeding

32 Baseline Scenario and Problem Statement Current variety of apple plants has a chilling hours of hrs. The availability of chilling hours below 1000 hrs is impacting apple production. Agriculture and horticulture practice in the state is mostly rainfed with lower availability of micro irrigation facility Rainfall pattern has become more erratic and intense Unavailability of infrastructure for protecting fruit crops against climate extremes (hail net penetration is less than 2%) Incidence of climate extreme events have increased in the recent past Intervention Promotion of high density spur and low chilling variety of apple( hrs) and climate resilient pomegranate variety. Creation of controlled atmosphere storage unit for storage of apple as temperature variation impacts quality. Creation of water source (poly/geo lined tank) and source to irrigation point linkage to facilitate higher penetration of irrigation facilities. Dissemination of hail nets coupled with pollinators colony to the farmers.

33 Proposed Interventions Promote high density spur variety (low chilling) apple and pomegranate cultivation by providing suitable imported plant with chilling hours hrs and farmers training. Provide anti-hail nets and creation of pollinators colony across the orchard for reduction of damage of fruits and enhance pollination Facilitate micro irrigation in the high density orchard through creation of water source eg poly lined tanks and bore wells and establish source to tank facilities

34 Proposed Interventions Creation of small farm based cold storage units of 1-5 Mt capacity Creation of packaging line and controlled atmosphere storage facilities

35 Implementation Arrangement State steering committee and District Horticulture department PIA (Block Horticulture officer ) CC cell of DEST NIE PIA (IPH) Service Providers (Development support Agency for CB) Service Providers (third party M&E)

36 Photo credit: Dr. Kirupasankar, GHNP Adaptation project 3 ECOSYSTEM BASED ADAPTATION IN THE GREAT HIMALAYAN NATIONAL PARK, KULLU DISTRICT, HP

37 GHNP Conservation Area S. No. Name of PA Area (Sq. Km) Population/ Villages 1 National Park Sainj WL Sanctuary villages 3 Tirthan WL Sanctuary Eco Zone villages 2300 house holds Total GHNP is a high biodiversity region and is a UNESCO World Heritage Site 37

38 Ecosystem Based Adaptation was identified as a key adaptation measure by the Vulnerability, Hazards and Risk Assessment High degree of vulnerability for several plant species, changing pattern of the composition and structure of forest communities observed By promoting medicinal plant cultivation and thus reducing dependence of the communities on forests, the resilience of natural ecosystems will be enhanced. Resilient forests will be in a better position to support communities in times of climatic extremes Forest Department will allow extension of medicinal plant cultivation in the GHNP Current status of scientific findings don t provide specific impacts with respect to specific species thus the adaptation options suggested need to be broad and generic Rationale

39 Rationale: Stress and impact on the medicinal plant sector (Based on Himachal Pradesh State Action Plan on Climate Change) Increase in the spring temperature, upward shift of the snowline erratic precipitation pattern, snow melt and reduced glacier mass balance Loss of biodiversity, altitudinal shift, delineation of the plant community/habitat loss, Invasion of non-native species including exotic, invasive and noxious species Change in plant phenology Increase anthropogenic pressure including unscientific and overexploitation of species with ethno medicinal value Species/habitat loss Affecting the traditional practices related to health care Loss of the rich knowledge base associated with these plant based health care practices.

40 Proposed Interventions Rejuvenation and establishment of government and private nurseries for medicinal plants Creation of community level gene banks Establishment of warehouse and medicinal plant processing unit comprising of drying and packaging unit

41 Proposed Interventions Establishment of system for collecting medicinal plant product and transportation to central warehouse Creation of central warehouse for the medicinal plant producer company and establishment of market linkage Creation of medicinal plant grower associations at GP level through existing SHGs and panchayat Training and capacity building of the medicinal plant growers on planting and harvesting techniques

42 Implementation arrangement

43 Summary of Adaptation Proposals Adaptation Project Project Implementing Agency Reducing Flood Risk in Parvati Valley of Kullu District, Himachal Pradesh State Council for Science, Technology and Environment Budget (in INR crore) Beneficiaries (number of individuals) ,50,000 Promoting Climate Directorate of Resilient AgriHorticulture Horticulture in Banjar, Kullu District, HP ,500 Ecosystem Based Adaptation in the Great Himalayan National Park, Kullu District, HP ,000 Directorate, GHNP

44 Recap Indo Swiss collaborative research studies for creation of evidence base on climate change impacts Multi stakeholder consultations for developing adaptation project proposals Adaptation proposals (DPRs) handed over to DEST, Government of Himachal Pradesh

45 Next Steps DEST, Government of Himachal Pradesh to secure funds for implementing the adaptation actions Funds may be from state, national or international sources

46 Thank you