Drought analysis. Local scale examples from Slovenia. Tjaša Pogačar Agrometeorological Department, EARS

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1 Drought analysis Local scale examples from Slovenia Tjaša Pogačar Agrometeorological Department, EARS

2 Contents What basic and evaluated data is available for drought analysis (monitoring)? Who collects the data and where can we get it? Our methodology and tools for drought analysis To whom and where are these data and analysis information available?

3 Slovenia a great diversity of: Precipitation amount Soils Land use

floods) Important to analyze both extremes Droughts

4 Increased variability of water supply More frequent occurrence of droughts and water surpluses (not only floods) Important to analyze both extremes Droughts in 2003, 2006, 2007 Drought and water surplus in 2009

5 15 June 15 July 2009 Water surplus Drought Government arrangements De minimis : financial help for farmers

6 Basic variables data: Meteorological Office PRECIPITATION in comparison to long-term averages DROUGHT STRESS

Basic variables TEMPERATURE THRESHOLDS: Fruit damage due to heat stress: 2-3 days of 5h T over 30 C and daily global radiation over 2400 J/cm2 data: Meteorological Office 30 AIR TEMPERATURES maximum

7 Basic variables TEMPERATURE THRESHOLDS: Fruit damage due to heat stress: 2-3 days of 5h T over 30 C and daily global radiation over 2400 J/cm2 data: Meteorological Office 30 AIR TEMPERATURES maximum air temperature over 30 C number of days and low relative humidity (14:00) Babno Polje Rateče Postojna Lesce Kočevje Brnik Maribor Celje Portorož Ljubljana Murska Sobota T over 30 C T over 30 C in RV below 40% Črnomelj Novo mesto Bilje HEAT STRESS maize: leaf folding

8 Basic variables POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION data: Meteorological Office Penman-Monteith: tested systematically used result: improved quality of drought monitoring Double effect: DROUGHT and HEAT 2009 STRESS

capacity, wilting point, water holding capacity.

9 Basic variables SOIL WATER data: Meteorological Office soil data: Biotechnical Faculty soils PROBLEMS with data Soil data: field capacity, wilting point, water holding capacity... Soil water measurements Time Domaine Reflectometers instead of GRAVIMETRIC method

10 Percolation... Every rain drop is not useful soil characteristic s Intensity of rain What happens with soil water?

11 Evaluated variables WATER BALANCE prepared data: SAgMIS (Slovene AgroMeteorological Information System) Basic water balance: RR - ETP (precipitation potential evapotranspiration)

12 On-line available only data for 7 stations PROBLEM for users DAILY and WEEKLY precipitation, potential evaporation and water balance cumulative for VEGETATION PERIOD

13 Evaluated variables WATER BALANCE Average July July 2010

14 Other possibility: WINISAREG model IRRFIB: water-balance model Initial conditions! potential evapotranspiration (Penman-Monteith) precipitation phenological phases and crop coefficients roots depth field capacity and wilting point actual evapotranspiration crop water demands soil water content soil water deficit irrigation demands

15 Model and measurements tested for a variety of crops comparison for 3 years good agreement r = 0.84

16 difference between precipitation and crop evapotranspiration IRRFIB: crop water deficit and stress days days with the soil water content under the limit (50% FC) CWD [mm] stress days Crop water deficit (CWD) and stress days for maize on soil with medium water holding capacity in Murska Sobota in the period in descending order + proxy data

17 Yield vs. Crop water deficit Rain-fed PROBLEMS with data higher crop water deficit leads to yield decrease r = 0.65 Yield vs. crop water deficit (CWD) for maize on soil with medium water holding capacity in Murska Sobota in the period

Irrigation in Slovenia Zemljišča Land prepared pripravljena for irrigation za namakanje Namakana Irrigated land zemljišča Površina (ha) area [ha] 10000

18 Irrigation in Slovenia Zemljišča Land prepared pripravljena for irrigation za namakanje Namakana Irrigated land zemljišča Površina (ha) area [ha] traditional way of farming governmental subsidies after droughts non-rational water use

SAgMIS: Slovene AgroMeteorological Information System 8.

2010 MAIZE (Maribor) water use deficit recent additional

19 SAgMIS: Slovene AgroMeteorological Information System SALAT (Ptuj) MAIZE (Maribor) water use deficit recent additional analysis IRRFIB simulation non irrigated for specific location, soil and crop

2008: MAIZE (Murska Sobota) sprinkler irrigation

20 SAgMIS: Slovene AgroMeteorological Information System : MAIZE (Murska Sobota) sprinkler irrigation recent update: FORECAST of irrigation water use project IRRFIB simulation irrigated deficit

21 Data dissemination VIA: Agricultural Advisory Service Promotions (conferences) Articles Publications on-line irrigation forecast Internet

22 Data dissemination In the vegetation period (April September): DECADAL BULLETIN

23 Page 3 DECADAL BULLETIN page 2 Page 2

24 Page 4 Page 5

25 Data dissemination publications Internet page with up-to-date data available data (archive) long-term averages: understanding of past drought occurrences phenological data real-time data

Agrometeorological support of fruit production: application in SW Slovenia

Meteorol. Appl. (Supplement), 81 86 (26) doi:1.117/s135482762581 Agrometeorological support of fruit production: application in SW Slovenia Andreja Sušnik 1,Iztok Matajc 1 & Ivan Kodrič 2 1 Environmental