INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON SYNERGISTIC APPROACHES TO FOOD AND WATER SECURITY

Transcription

1 INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON SYNERGISTIC APPROACHES TO FOOD AND WATER SECURITY CROP ZONING TO SUPPORT FOOD AND WATER SECURITY IN A CHANGING CLIMATE SCENARIO Brunini, O.; Carvalho J.P.; Brunini, C.A.P brunini@iac.sp.gov.br Sao Paulo State Secretariat for Agriculture and Food Supply Agronomic Institute- Campinas Brazil FUNDAG-NB Drugowich, M.I; Interliche,P.H; Bosqueiro,A. Sao Paulo State Secretariat for Agriculture and Food Supply - Extension Service

2 THE MAIN FOCUS HOW TO HAVE A REASONABLE PROCESS FOR A FOOD AND WATER SECURITY

3 WE DID LEARN YESTERDAY THAT TO HAVE THIS- ALL ACTORS AND AVAILABLE TOOLS SHOULD BE USED AND ENGAGED FOCUSING A RELIABLE PROCESS

4 MANY CONCERNS ARE RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING THE MAJOR ASPECT CONSIDERED IS THE RISE ON AIR TEMPERATURE. WATER RESOURCES AND THE WATER SCARCITY ARE IN MANY CASE MORE SERIOUS THAN THE INCREASE IN AIR TEMPERATURE- ALSO COMBINED STUDIES OF TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL IN A SUITABLE WAY TO OBSERVE CROP BEHAVIOR IS NOT ALL DONE

5 ANOTHER ASPECT TO BE CONSIDERED A) FOOD CROPS AND BIO-ENERGY CROPS B) CROP WATER REQUIREMENT C) POPULATION WATER USE D) INDUSTRIAL USE- RE-USE?

6 WE WANT TO PRESENT SOME WORK DONE BY SÃO PAULO STATE GOVERNMENT AGRICULTURE SECRETARIAT FOR AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SUPPLY INSTITUTO AGRONÔ MICO- CAMPINAS

7 WE WILL FOCUS ON: WATER RESOURCES AGROMETEOROLOGY SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE CROP ZONING BIODIVERSITY

8 Basic Objectives: -To really determine if the proposed climate change would erradicate crops in Sao Paulo State; -To indicate scenarios of changing forest/agriculture lands based on climate scenario; -To determine the impact of climate variation on water reservoir. -How to make a practical combination of bioenergy crops and food(sustainable agriculture) -How an AWSN may give full support to food security and water management

9 Basic Approach: -Crop zoning; -Forest/agriculture interaction; -Effect on ground water. -Crop adaptation and climate support -AWSN and support to agriculture and water planning and use.

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12 Temperature:- Rainfall Soil Water Balance -Water Deficits Annual- Growing Season-3 months -Climate availabitly P-ETP Crop Requirement: -Heat (T); -Water ( DEF SURPLUS) -Crop Adaptation Ex: Coffee, Sugar Cane, Maize, Sunflower ARC-GIS - GIS

13 Crop Zoning: -Climate suitability and variation from -2ºC to +4ºC; -Precipitation variation -20% to +20%; - Avaliation of the parameter based on crop phenology: * Annual * Perenial * Long season. - Annual crops - Growing season dormency periodo - 3 months

14 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO AND P-ETP

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16 Figure 4: Actual situation (A) and climate scenarios, (B) +2 C, (C) +2 C & - 20% e (D) -2 C.

17 Priorities in the second scenario, left, and priorities on the third scenario of climatic change, on the right.

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20 October-March

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29 HOW TO USE THE AWNS OVERALL USE TO SUPPORT FOOD SECURITY TO IMPROVE WATER MANAGEMENT TO ENSURE A BETTER ALOCATION OF RESOURCES TECHNICAL APPROACH TO PREDICT WATER DEMAND AS FOR DIFFERENT CROPS HOW TO COMBINE BIO- ENERGY AND FOOD CROPS TO VERIFY RECHARGEBLA OF GROUND WATER AND CLIMATE SCENARIO AWN- 136 With On line data at every 20 min.

30 Data collecting (AWSN) Data Analises Data available for bulletins

31 AWSN DROUGHT MONITORING CIIAGRO SIASECA- EARLY DROUGHT ADVISORY SYSTEM SÃO PAULO STATE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION PROGRAMM

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33 Implication on Food / Water Security: -Even for a warmer situation of +4ºC food and bioenergy crop are suitable in Sao Paulo State; -Crop calendar will change and this will affect water requirement; -The use of crop adapted varieties will reduce climate risks; -For shorts season crop, planning date is unimportant tool to avoid the risk of crop lost; -In some aspects irrigation need will increase but available water for this technique may be reduced; -The shortage of ground water may be more serious than warning.

34 - For shorts season crop, planning date is an important tool to avoid the risk of crop lost; - In some aspects irrigation need will increase but available water for this technique may be reduced; - The shortage of ground water may be more serious than warning. TO HAVE A RELIABLE FOOD AND WATER SECURITY SYSTEM WE MUST A REASONABLE AND WELL PERFORMED WEATHER STATION NETWORKWITH ON-LINE AVAILABLE DATA

35 THANK YOU ORIVALDO BRUNIN I brunini@iac.sp.gov.br