The trajectories and determinants of agricultural land-use change over the last two decades in post-soviet European Russia

Transcription

1 The trajectories and determinants of agricultural land-use change over the last two decades in post-soviet European Russia Alexander V. Prishchepov 1, Daniel Mueller 1,Anika Sieber 2, Tobias Kuemmerle 2, Volker C. Radeloff 3, Patrick Hostert 2 1 Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO) 2 Humboldt University in Berlin, Germany 3 Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin Madison EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, April 22 27, 2012

2 Background Land use is a major cause of biodiversity loss and decline of ecosystem services With the population increase agricultural expansion may grow as well in the favor of biodiversity rich frontiers Source: Wikipedia Source: Wikipedia 2 Source: Own picture

3 Background It is unfortunate, because declines in agricultural intensity and agricultural land abandonment are common around the world, particularly in Former Soviet Union and Central Eastern Union countries in response to massive socioeconomic and institutional changes However, little is known about the patterns and drivers of agricultural land abandonment

4 Importance Environmental Source for the forest regeneration, providing ecosystem services, expanding habitat for umbrella species Effects on regional climate Uncontrolled abandonment facilitate spread of fires and pests Economic Alternative use of abandoned agricultural lands (e.g., biofuel production) Recultivation of abandoned agricultural lands in the future Social Esthetic, long term populated agricultural landscapes 3

5 Socio economic and political changes in Russia Land reform (privatization of agricultural lands) Price liberalization and withdrawal of governmental regulations of the agricultural sector Absence of national policy to assist with the transition towards a market economy Continual demographic decline in central Russia Source: Own pictures 5

6 Goals Analyze the trajectories of agricultural land use change (LUC) circa , and Analyze the determinants of agricultural land abandonment using socio economic and environmental data, separately for circa and

7 Study area Temperate European Russia, Ryazan province (oblast),forest steppe transition zone ~30% forest covered Rural population density 5 31 people/km 2(1990) Grain yields tones/ hectare ( ) Number of livestock decline ~60% ( ) Arable lands decline ~40% ( ) 7 7

8 Classification of medium resolution satellite multiseasonal image dates composites 185*185 km 30 m Landsat TM/ ETM+ for , , Support vector machines Validation of classification using high resolution Quickbird images and ground reference data Mapping agricultural LUCC

9 Agricultural land abandonment Source: Own pictures Agricultural land that is no longer in use either for livestock grazing, hay cutting or crop production, and shows evidence of non managed grasses and shrubs regrowth

10 Methods Modeling approach: Spatially explicit logistic regression modeling with account for spatial autocorrelation and robustness of sampling Dependent variable: Binary variable, Abandoned 1, stable managed agricultural land 0 Samples Land cover map Distance to settlements Distance to roads 10

11 Assumptions Profit maximization of agricultural producers (e.g., more abandonment far away of populated places) Time variant socio economic variables can be endogenous to LUC Within the same districts agricultural producers may have similar decision making (accounting for spatial autocorrelation within the same districts) 11

12 Explanatory variables Biophysical (pixel level) Soil ph, elevation, slope, average annual evapotranspiration, number of days with temperature over 10 C, distance from forest edge, isolated agricultural areas (long term marginality) Agricultural productivity (district level) Average grain yields in late 1980s, late 1990s (centners/ Ha), average milk yields in late 1980s, late 1990s (centners/ Ha) Population (pixel level) Interpolated population counts for settlements in late 1980s 12

13 Explanatory variables Proximate (pixel level) Distances (from provincial capital, district center, municipality center, settlement with over 500 people, nearest village, nearest road with hard coverage) Distance to abandoned agricultural plots by 2000 Infrastructure (district level) Road density in the late 1980s, density of settlements in the late 1980s 13

14 Hypotheses Where agricultural productivity is lower agricultural abandonment is more pronounced Where population density is lower we expect to observe more frequently abandoned agricultural plots We expect more abandonment where agricultural fields are isolated and close to forest edges For second decade of transition ( ) we expect further abandonment of agricultural plots in the vicinity of already abandoned agricultural plots by 2000 (spillover effect) 14

15 Mapping Results Mapping agricultural LUC % of agricultural lands (~ ha), managed in 1990 were abandoned by % of agricultural lands(~ ha),managed in 1990 were abandoned by 2010 Only 1,7% of abandoned agricultural lands from 1990 by 2000 (~ ha) were recultivated by 2010.

16 Modeling Results Agricultural land abandonment was higher where agricultural productivity was lower prior the transition (low crop yields and milk yields per cow in the late 1980s) (alpha=0.05) Agricultural land abandonment was associated with the increased distances from nearest villages, settlements with over 500 population and municipality centers (alpha=0.05) Agricultural land abandonment was associated with isolated agricultural areas within the forest matrix and nearby the forest edges, higher ph and higher precipitation levels (alpha=0.05) 16 16

17 Modeling Results Probability of agricultural land abandonment was higher close to the forest edges (alpha=0.05). Probability of agricultural land abandonment was higher nearby of already abandoned agricultural plots from 1990 to 2000 (alpha =0.05).

18 Discussion Penetration of market principles caused agricultural land abandonment in the areas where agricultural production was already marginal prior the transition to market economy. Von Thünen type patterns of agricultural land abandonment became increasingly important during the first decade of transition ( ). Villages, municipalities and settlements over 500 people represent important infrastructural networks for agricultural production

19 Discussion During the second decade of transition the pace of agricultural land abandonment declined twofold and many determinants of agricultural land abandonment in earlier period, were not anymore statistically significant. Whether agricultural fields were managed or abandoned in earlier period had impact on decision making regarding agricultural land use in later time (spillover effect).

20 Conclusion Agricultural decision making shifted toward market based principles. More than ten fold decrease in the subsidies facilitated the abandonment of socio economically marginal lands once being subsidized. Agricultural land abandonment was widespread during the first decade of transition, and many abandoned agricultural fields were not yet recultivated by 2010 that have strong socioeconomic and environmental impacts. We expect further agricultural abandonment in areas of lower productivity, isolated and distant from populated places. 20

21 Acknowledgments NASA Land use and Land Cover Change Program 21

22 Thanks! Danke! Спасибо! Alexander Prishchepov 22