Current Climate Change Impacts on the Agri-Food System

Transcription

1 Current Climate Change Impacts on the Agri-Food System Dave Gustafson Director, CIMSANS ILSI Research Foundation 10 December 2015 NC Weed Science Society Indianapolis, IN

2 Outline Climate science update Future scenarios Long-term adaptation options Plausible near-term (<5 yr) extreme weather events Agri-food system vulnerabilities Take-home messages 2

3 CIMSANS Mission Lead new partnerships on novel food system modeling methods, better informing adaptation to the increasing impacts of climate change, extreme events and resource scarcity on sustainable nutrition security Employs tri-partite approach Industry Government Academia 3

4 Temperature Change by Decade Date Name of Meeting Third National Climate Assessment 4

5 Observed U.S. Temperature Change Date Name of Meeting Third National Climate Assessment 5

6 Observed U.S. Precipitation Change Date Name of Meeting Third National Climate Assessment 6

7 Observed Change in Heavy Precipitation Date Name of Meeting Third National Climate Assessment 7

8 Projected Global Temperature Change Date Name of Meeting Third National Climate Assessment 8 8

9 Crop Yields Decline under Higher Temperatures Date Name of Meeting Third National Climate Assessment 9

10 Illinois is on the move but where? Potential Illinois corn yield changes with mid-21 st century climate source: Gustafson et al. Pharaoh s dream revisited: an integrated US Midwest field research network for climate adaptation, BioScience (in press). 10 The map shows projections for where Illinois weather will have moved by the period, relative to , based on changes in warm season (May through September) average daily temperature and precipitation from four CMIP5 climate models run using the RCP8.5 (high emissions) scenario (IPCC 2013). The bar chart shows corresponding potential climate change effects on average Illinois corn yields using the DSSAT CERES model (Jones et al. 2003), holding all parameters at current values except for climate. Expected 2050 climate impacts on IL corn yields range from 15-55%

11 Public Need: Integrated US Midwest Field Research Network for Climate Adaptation US Midwest chosen for its global importance, but findings would be relevant elsewhere Transdisciplinary and cross-sectoral (public-private) Agri-business, agronomists, bio-informaticists, biologists, climatologists, economists, environmental scientists, farmerproducers, hydrologists, information technologists, modelers, plant breeders, and policy experts Research targets: Crop adaptation via breeding, molecular tools, microbiome New control methods for emerging pest and disease threats Develop/implement more sustainable agricultural practices Deploy innovative IT capabilities (App s, Big Data, etc.) Fund via the Foundation for Food & Agricultural Research 11 source: Gustafson et al. Pharaoh s dream revisited: an integrated US Midwest field research network for climate adaptation, BioScience (in press).

12 New USDA Special Report The assessment finds that climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. The risks are greatest for the global poor and in tropical regions. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. As part of a highly integrated global food system, consumers and producers in the United States are likely to be affected by these changes. The type and price of food imports from other regions are likely to change, as are export demands placed upon U.S. producers and the transportation, processing, and storage systems that enable global trade. Demand for food and other types of assistance may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies to manage changing conditions. 12 released 2 December 2015

13 Predicted Future Temperatures 13 Source: Climate Change, Global Food Security and the U.S. Food System (2015).

14 Predicted Future Precipitation 14 Source: Climate Change, Global Food Security and the U.S. Food System (2015).

15 U.S. Food System 15 Source: Climate Change, Global Food Security and the U.S. Food System (2015).

16 Food System Metrics & Indicators Nutrient Adequacy Nutrient Balance Score Population Share with Adequate Nutrients Non-Staple Energy Shannon Diversity MFA Diversity Source: Gustafson et al. Seven Food System Metrics of Sustainable Nutrition Security, (in preparation)

17 Current Food System Status Argentina Bangladesh Brazil Cameroon China India Netherlands Senegal USA 17 Source: Gustafson et al. Seven Food System Metrics of Sustainable Nutrition Security, (in preparation).

18 Climate Change Means Increased Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather Events Pakistan (2010) Texas (2011) Floods Drought Heat waves Wind-storms Severe t-storms Tropical cyclones Govindghat, India (2013) Tacloban, Philippines (2013) 18 Super Storm Sandy (US East Coast 2012)

19 Emerging Global Pest & Disease Threats to Agriculture Livestock Multiple diseases Rice 1 False smut Maize Stem borer Cassava 2 Whitefly Mealybug False smut on rice, Photo credit: IRRI Stem borer on maize, Photo credit: CYMMIT Whitefly on cassava, Photo credit: CIAT

20 Increasing Volatility in Food Prices January

21 Climate-Induced Food Security Hotspots 21 Source: Maplecroft (2015).

22 UK-US Taskforce on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience Held two workshops, in Chicago (October 2014) & London (February 2015) Climate, crop, and agent-based modeling expertise Held in parallel with a more private process convened by Lloyd s 22

23 Taskforce Used a Scenario Approach 23 Source: Extreme weather and resilience of the global food system (2015). Final Project Report from the UK-US Taskforce on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience, The Global Food Security Programme, UK.

24 Modeling 1-in-200 Year Events 24 Source: Extreme weather and resilience of the global food system (2015). Final Project Report from the UK-US Taskforce on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience, The Global Food Security Programme, UK.

25 25 Source: Extreme weather and resilience of the global food system (2015). Final Project Report from the UK-US Taskforce on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience, The Global Food Security Programme, UK.

26 Take-home messages Current risks to agri-food system are nontrivial and growing, but not yet quantifiable Crop protection needs are certain to increase as pests/disease move and over-winter Water management will grow in importance Paris talks likely to result in limits on GHG emissions from the Ag sector (focus on N) Coordinated global risk management is needed, likely via more robust insurance products 26

27 Thank you! Questions? 27