Food Security & Nutrition Working Group Eastern and Central African Region

Transcription

1 Food Security & Nutrition Working Group Eastern and Central African Region Agenda February 18, 2016 Co-Chair: IGAD & FAO Venue: ICPAC (Kenya Meteorological Department) Dagoretti Corner, Ngong Road, opposite the Junction 09:30 Situation Analysis & Outlook: Food security conditions, hotspots, prices, climate, nutrition & refugees ACF, FAO, FEWSNET, ICPAC, IPC, UNHCR, UNICEF, WFP 10:30 Tea/Coffee break All 11:00 El Niño Impact in the Region (Humanitarian Response and Funding Update) UNOCHA 11:30 FSNWG Sub Group Terms of Reference Sub Group Leads 11:45 Discussion All

2 Current Conditions

3 Key Messages Urgent humanitarian response required for about 26 million people facing severe (crises and emergency IPC phase 3 & 4) food insecurity and malnutrition in parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, CAR, Sudan, DRC, Somalia, Burundi, Djibouti and Uganda. The main drivers of food insecurity and malnutrition are drought due to El Niño, protracted conflict, macro economic shocks and inherent vulnerabilities. As the lean season progresses food insecurity is likely to deteriorate further in parts of Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti, Burundi and Uganda (Karamoja). Generally, food security improved in many parts Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Southern Ethiopia and Somalia following last season (October- December 2015) above average agricultural production due to El Niño.

4 Country Updates

5 Food insecurity likely to deteriorate further with early and severe lean season. Ethiopia 10.2M people in need of humanitarian assistance; areas of concern - NE, parts of Central (IPC Phase 3 & 4) Drought impacts: Meher crop failure/ production shortfall, water & pasture shortage, deteriorating livestock condition & deaths, food insecurity; Livestock productivity not expected to improve until next rainy season => impact availability of livestock products & incomes; Market prices (wheat & pulses) still high due to limited supply, constraining access among poor HHs; Price increase likely to start earlier than normal due to supply shortfall & demand in drought affected areas;

6 Somalia Jan 2016, 912,000 people food insecure mainly (71%) IDPs ; 953,000 people under crisis & emergency (Feb- June) & 3.7M stressed; Areas of concern: NW region & most IDPs sites, Urban livelihoods in Hiiran & Bakool regions under crisis (IPC phase 3), Dolow IDPs (IPC phase 4); Main causes: poor rainfall and drought conditions, trade disruption, protracted and new population displacement, compounded by poverty; Acute malnutrition affecting 304,700 children, (58,300 severely - at risk of morbidity & death); Livestock emergency (Deaths) declared by the authorities of Puntland attributed to El nino driven drought.

7 South Sudan 2.84M (23%) under IPC Phase 3 & 4 (Dec 2015 IPC update) - an increase during post-harvest period; Deterioration in parts of Jonglei & EES compared to Aug/Sept 2015; Drivers: conflict-related displacements, limited access, disruption in livestock and crop production, high staple food prices, and currency devaluation; Inflation & currency depreciation led to increased prices and forcing traders out of business, impacting on HH access to food; Food insecurity is likely to persist and peak during the lean season (April July period); Malnutrition above emergency thresholds (GAM >15%) in Unity, Upper Nile, Jonglei, Warrap, NBeG and parts of Eastern Equatoria states. Malnutrition causes: inadequate food consumption, morbidity, sub-optimal feeding practices, poor health and nutrition services, poor hygiene and sanitation, and constrained health and nutrition service delivery.

8 Burundi Over 260,000 out as refugees since April 2015; 3.6M people are food insecure (689,571 severely) Nov/Dec FSMS & EFSA; Food insecurity is attributed to: restricted movement of people limiting ability to seek labor opportunities, restricted trade movements within and across borders, below-average harvests due to limited access to fields and access to inputs, El Nino impacts on crop production (excessive rains, floods and landslides in several areas), Hampered transportation - damaged bridges & roads, High prices (beans) amidst deteriorating purchasing power; Deteriorating exchange rate and inflation hampering importation of commodities (including food); Food insecurity likely to deteriorate in conflict affected areas (Bujumbura, Bujumbura rural, Kirundo, Makamba, Rumonge, Cibitoke, Bubanza, and Ruyigi).

9 Sudan 4M people under crisis & above (Sept-Nov 2015); IPC Phase 3 in parts of Kordofan & Darfur due to effects of conflicts (displacement, access to markets); Below-average crop production in 2015 (25% below 5-yr average) => effects of El Nino in eastern, belowaverage rainfall and reduced area under cultivation; Dec 2015, sorghum & millet prices above-average & expected to increase due to low local production; Pasture deficits (North Darfur, North Kordofan, Kassala, White Nile States) impacting on livestock body condition, increasing livestock migration, and below-average livestock prices. Also limiting availability of livestock products and incomes; High food prices and declining livestock prices reduce ToT for pastoral and agropastoral HHs; Lean season likely to start early due to reduced purchasing power and reduced access to food from own production.

10 Uganda Nov 2015, 26% (260,582) in IPC phase 3; 30% (316,470) to remain under crisis until April 2016 => relying on markets. FSNA (Dec 2015): marked increase in reliance on borrowing (35% in June to 51% in Dec). HH food stocks are low; reliance on assistance & borrowing may increase over Jan-April. Food security likely to improve from March 2016 as agric labor opportunities improve.

11 Djibouti IPC phase 3 in Obock, south pastoral areas, and NW Pastoral of Dikhil and Tadjourah (Nov 2015 IPC); 56% (227,463) of rural population facing crisis food insecurity while the rest are stressed (IPC phase 2); Dry conditions persist due to ongoing El Niño: below-average July-Sept rains followed by below-average Heys-/Dadaa rains (October February); Livestock resources and body conditions likely to remain poor in most pastoral areas impacting on food access through limited milk availability and low livestock prices; Hence, food insecurity likely to persist among poor households until the next rains (Diraac/Suguum) in April.

12 Kenya 1.1m people required food assistance between Sept 2015 and Feb 2016 (LRA, 2015); Most areas received average to above-average short rains due to ongoing El Niño; Food security improvement in pastoral areas due to rangeland improvement, livestock productivity and availability of livestock products and income; BUT some poor HHs to remain stressed; Dec 2015 FSOM: food security improvement compared to September with less HHs under severe food insecurity despite spatial variation among livelihood zones; Improved crop production expected in marginal agricultural areas; Short Rains Assessment is on-going and will further inform the food security situation in the country. Reports of Camel deaths in Marsabit, Moyale and

13 DR Congo 4.5M people projected to remain under crisis and emergency food insecurity over Sept 2015 March 2016; IPC Phase 3 & 4 in several areas (Eastern, North and South Kivu, Kalehe, Kabare, and Mwenge Provinces); Food insecurity drivers: effects of armed conflicts, population displacement, localized flooding impacting on livelihoods sources; Heightened prevalence of acute malnutrition in Equateur, Kongo Central and Western and Central Provinces.

14 Rwanda Rwanda is generally food secure CFSVA indicated 80% of population is food secure; Markets play a major role with most household sourcing food items from markets. However, access is constrained by purchasing power among poor HHs; By December staple prices exhibited a rising tendency in most markets, and higher than last year and the long-term average; Prices are expected to start declining moderately as a result of expected near-normal seasonal harvests; Food security expected to improve between Jan and March 2016 due to season A harvests;

15 Eritrea Vulnerability to food insecurity stems from economic constrains, civil insecurity and rising prices of imported foods (esp. cereals), and effects of El Nino phenomena; El Nino effect has had negative impacts on crop and pasture development in 2015: Below-average rainfall in July-August 2015 affected crop development leading to poor harvests; Poor Kremt rainfall resulted in poor pasture condition for livestock in main productive areas;

16 Population in Food Insecurity Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phase 3 & 4) Country Pop in IPC phase 3 & 4 Source Burundi 0.69M Dec 2015 FSMS CAR 1.95M (0.6M severe) (require assistance) EFSA Dec 2015 Djibouti 0.23M IPC Oct 2015 DRC 4.46M IPC Sept 2015 March 2016 Ethiopia 10.2M (require food aid) HRD, Dec 2015 Kenya 1.1M (require support) KFSSG, Aug 2015 Somalia 0.95M FSNAU, Feb-June 2016 South Sudan 2.84M IPC, Dec 2015 Uganda 0.32M IPC Nov 2015 April 2016 Sudan 4.02M IPC Sept-Nov 2015 TOTAL 26.76M

17 18 February 2016 Nutrition Update Nutrition Update

18 South Sudan South Sudan Burden of acute malnutrition in 2013/16 SAM Children reached in 2015 = 147,328 MAM children reached in 2015= 267,896

19 Torit Aweil West Fashoda Aweil North Aweil East Leer 3 Tonj South Uror Mayendit 3 Koch Akobo East Pochalla Bor South Juba Nyirol Akobo West Twic AAA Pochalla Kapoeta South Budi Aweil West Aweil North Mvolo Aweil East Duk Uror Agok Aweil Centre Pochalla Bor South PoC Mayendit Akobo East GAM (%) February South Sudan Nutrition Situation in Oct-Mar 2014 and 2015 based on SMART compared 15% Emergency Threshold Oct'14Nov'14 Dec'14 Feb'15March'15 Oct'15 Nov'15 Dec'15 GAM SAM 2015

20 South Sudan Cont: Nutrition situation update Nutrition situation is likely to remain critical in Upper Nile, Warrap, NBeG, Unity Sates and parts of Eastern Equatoria, The high level of malnutrition is attributed to inadequate food consumption, morbidity, sub-optimal feeding practices, poor health and nutrition services, poor hygiene and sanitation environment. Funding for the humanitarian response- including the nutrition sector is critical and may hamper the response by nutrition partners. (Ref: Dec-2015 IPC update )

21 Ethiopia Ethiopia Priority-1 (IPC Humanitarian Emergency )Woredas increased from 142 (in Aug 2015) to 186; Priority-2 decreased from 189 to 154; Conservative estimates for year 2016 for SAM caseload- 435,000 children under 5 years; MAM caseload estimates for million (1M under 5 yr children and 700,000 PLWs). To support government response as per the HRD, UNICEF and WFP Ethiopia have developed a joint nutrition response to El Niño driven drought

22 Ethiopia Nutrition Priority Woredas

23 Ethiopia Partners in Woredas Total P-1 Woredas P-1 Woredas Covered by Partners Actual Gap in P-1 Woredas Total P-2 Woredas P-2 Woredas Covered by Partners Actual Gap in P-2 Woredas

24 Somalia Somalia Nearly children under the age of five are acutely malnourished; The above figure includes over children that are severely malnourished (prevalence estimates) Critical levels of acute malnutrition (GAM 15-30%) were observed in: 4 /13 IDP population groups surveyed 7 /23 rural population groups surveyed No significant change in numbers of acutely malnourished population in 2015/16 Deyr (N=304,700) from 2015 Gu assessment (N=307,800). Ref: FSNAU 2015/16 Deyr

25 Somalia Acute Malnutrition Crisis Critical acute malnutrition levels persist in key population groups (Bari Urban, Garowe IDPs, Galkayo IDPs, Mataban District, Beletweyne District, Bay Agropastoral, Dollow IDPs, North Gedo Pastoral, North Gedo Riverine.

26 Somalia Nutrition progression

27 Sudan Sudan- Nutrition situation Monthly Average admisison of Severe Acute Malnutrition in Sudan Lean Season Non Lean Season Average 54 out of 184 localities and 7 out of the 18 states of Sudan have a GAM prevalence above 15%, El-nino induced drought may lead to: Increase in acute malnutrition caseload (35% March May 2016) during intensified lean season; Worsening in severity of acute malnutrition; Increased vulnerability to chronic malnutrition (Stunting).

28 Burundi Burundi- Nutrition Situation Increasing food insecurity & nutrition vulnerability in all 18 provinces Health concerns: Malaria outbreak in 18 districts; nationwide stock out of essential medicines Access to water: 11 out of 18 provinces are affected Situation aggravated by political crisis & El Niño phenomenon

29 September 2015 Regional nutritional synthesis Critical nutrition situation (especially acute malnutrition) for young children across in several countries due to a several underlying factors including El nino effects; Need to address the sustained high level malnutrition through integrated multi-sectoral programs with WASH, Food security and health, strengthen community resilience efforts; Need to strengthen situation analysis (assessments), indepth causal analysis, nutrition information management; Sustained concern over the nutrition situation of IDP children especially in Somalia

30 Refugees Update Shortfalls / cuts in the general food assistance in some of the refugee operations in the region (Ethiopia, South Sudan, Kenya) possibly will have negative impact on the food security and nutrition situation of refugees. An increased in the number of refugees in the last one year will possibly have negative impact on the food security and nutrition situation in the region.

31 Market and Trade Update

32 Prices Situation Maize Maize prices across markets in the region were normal except in Tanzania and South Sudan Tanzania prices were relatively high leading to reduced trade with Kenya Uganda maize prices were competitive ensuring normal trade with Kenya and South Sudan South Sudan prices adjusting to regional levels due to flotation of SS Pound in Dec 2015

33 Prices Situation: Sorghum Sorghum prices on key markets in 2015 were within seasonal trends except South Sudan South Sudan prices returning to regional levels due to flotation of the SS pound in Dec 2015 Severe deterioration of economic situation in S Sudan (reduced oil revenue, large budget deficit and scarce foreign exchange) leading to food scarcity and high prices, reduced household purchasing power driving more households into poverty and food insecurity.

34 Climate Update

35 SYSTEMS IOD is in neutral phase now ONI strengthened from 2.2 (month ending December 2015) to 2.3 (month ending January 2016) Source: CPC/IRI

36 Monthly and Seasonal Difference from the climatology September 2015 October 2015 November 2015 December 2015 SOND 2015 OND 2015

37 COF 41 Consensus Climate Outlook for SOND 2015 Observed rainfall anomalies during SOND 2015

38 MAM 2016 FORECASTS ONGOING

39 El Niño Impact in the Region (Humanitarian Response and Funding Update) Increased food insecure population Increased displacement (refugee, IDPs and migrants) Humanitarian response and constraints Recommended actions

40 Refugee planning figures for 2016

41 High existing IDP caseload

42 Trends in Global Humanitarian Funding

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45 Recommended actions Humanitarian partners should Step-up life-saving assistance to people in humanitarian crisis and emergency. Donors should Review options to re-programme existing funding for priority humanitarian needs and allocating additional resources to cover funding gaps. National governments and development partners should: Step up efforts to reduce the risks and mitigate the impacts El Nino. Strengthen the resilience of vulnerable households and communities through livelihood support and programmes for critical gaps in basic social services and social protection that complement disaster risk reduction, recovery and development initiatives (crisis modifier approaches e.g. livestock destocking, fodder, seed inputs, scale up social safety nets, cash transfers, etc).

46 2016 FSNWG Meeting Calendar Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Date 19 th (FSNWG Core Group Meeting) 18 th 24 th 21 st 19 th 23 rd 21 st 18 th 22 nd 20 th 17 th 15 th

47 kreduction/east-centralafrica/fsnwg/en/