Sept 2014 Conditions Vs Current Conditions

Transcription

1 September September Sept 2014 Conditions Vs Current Conditions Sept 2014 Sept 2015 IMPROVED: Kenya, Uganda, Sudan DETERIORATED: South Sudan, Djibouti, Burundi, Kenya, Ethiopia, Burundi. SAME: Rwanda, Eastern DRC, CAR

2 Current Conditions: Regional Highlights Crisis and emergency food insecurity remains a concern in parts of DRC, CAR, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, parts of Karamoja, Darfur in Sudan, IDP sites in Somalia; An estimated 17.9 people may be facing food insecurity in the region. Dry conditions in pastoral areas of Ethiopia, Djibouti and Sudan are expected to continue till Dec (GHACOF, Aug.). Conflicts/political tension remains a key driver for food insecurity in the region (e.g South Sudan, Burundi, CAR, eastern DRC and Somalia. El Nino expected to lead to above average rainfall in some areas leading to improved food security outcomes but also localised flooding but depressed rainfalls in others persisting stressed/ food insecurity conditions General improvement in food security situation in the region. However, some deterioration seen in pastoral areas and an estimated 17.9M people in need of humanitarian assistance.

3 Current Conditions Burundi Burundi WFP, IPC (priliminary) Generally food security conditions is good due to the season B harvest. About 100,000 are considered in food insecurity crisis. Significant number of farming population have fled to neigboring countries (UNHCR) due to the political crisis The political crisis negatively affected Economic Activities in the country, particularly the capital Bujumbura. Trade in agricultural comoditities fell by about 50%. The lean period is expected to start in September, is likely be exacerbated by the negative effects of the current crisis Food security relatively stable due to Season B production though expected to remain stressed to December. Improvements in food security in some areas unlikely to be sustained beyond August due to below average overall harvest following disruptions.

4 Current Conditions South Sudan Continued decline in acute food insecurity due to improved access during the harvest period. South Sudan - FEWSNET In general, the food security has improved in the country. However, the conflict affected states remain in phase 3 & 4. In GUN crop conditions are generally favorable, although planted area is well below average Cereal prices continue to rise well above the five-year average. Sorghum prices increased by 23 and 67 percent in July in Juba and Wau, respectively. A typical livestock migration due to conflict - inadequate extension services. Reported disease outbreaks in Jonglei, Lakes, and EES. IPC Analysis has just been concluded awaiting government approval

5 Current Conditions Sudan Sudan - FEWSNET Below average rainfall (25-80%) countrywide, delayed planting resulting into bellow average area planted. This will most likely lead to below-average production. Pasture conditions have not regenerated as expected and this will impact overall livestock production An estimated 52,000 people in the South Kordofan and Blue Nile States face food insecurity. This is attributed to insecurity, disruption of market supplies, and poor rainfall performance An estimated 211,000 people remained displaced by conflict in Darfur since January An estimated 52,000 people in the South Kordofan and Blue Nile States face food insecurity

6 Current Conditions ETHIOPIA ETHIOPI FEWSNET, WFP Average rainfall for Jul to Sep. Karan/Karma rains remains below average. This has compounded the poor livestock body conditions and livestock production especially in Afar and Sitti Zones. High cereal and low Livestock prices and demand will put pressure on poor households in meetin their food needs Unusual livestock deaths and migration has been reported, particularly in Afar and Somali region.

7 Current Conditions Djibouti Djibouti Fews Net About 120,000 are in PC Phase 2 & 3, and expected to persist until end end of Sept, especially in the southern pastoral zone and the Obock region. The current elongated lean season, pasture, browse and water scarcity may worsen, resulting into sales of livestock at low prices (GHACOF, prediction) The impact of the failed season reduced household food access, coupled with limited labour opportunities and inadequte humanitarian assistance Crisis levels of food insecurity to continue in 2015 due to consecutive poor seasons. Lean season to be more sever in Southeastern pastoral and Obock areas.

8 Current Conditions - Rwanda Rwanda FEWSNET, WFP Overall, food security have improved due to the harvest from B season 2015 (As reported in August). Normal rainfall experienced in the first 10 days of September, succeeding drier than normal conditions in August (El Nino event). Annual crops are being planted for season A which normally starts in the second half of September, mainly maize, Beans and roots;

9 Current Conditions DR Congo DRC Preliminary IPC Analysis From the preliminary IPC, improved food Security being observed in regions where security is not of major concerns. However, large part of the country is still experiencing chronic food insecurity, especially the East of the country. The final IPC report will be released by the end of Sept. An estimated 6.5 million people were under crisis and emergency situation until June 2015.

10 Current Conditions Uganda Uganda IPC, Info trade Uganda Food security situation in Uganda is generally good due to the first season harvest. However, there still concerns in Karamoja. Prices of staple food across the country generally increased in major makers. Most areas with Karamoja are in phase 3 (238,575) and 4 phase 4 (56,370). Though areas cultivated were reported to have increased, crop production was generally below normal. Pasture and browse condition are still good. However, high prevalence of diseases is affecting livestock production. Food insecurity in Karamoja likely to persist due to delayed harvest until September/October thereby prolonging the lean season.

11 Current Conditions Somalia SOMALIA FAO, WFP, FSNAU, FEWSNET, Post Gu (April-June) assessment report indicates worsening FS conditions. About people in phase 3 & 4, particularlly in Banadi; South & North Mudug, Bari, Awdal, Lower Juba, Woqooyi Galbeed Additional 2.3m people are in phase 2. 17% Increase in the number in phase 3&4 is attributed to; below average cereal harvests, poor rainfall; trade disruption, conflict and displacement Off-season harvest expected (3,900 tons) by end of September in Jowhar and River Rind areas. In some agro-pastoral areas, the food security will improve improved due to Deyr rainfall. Food security situation likely to worsen following below-average GU performance. Rising risks of flooding and damage to crops around the Shabelle and Juba regions.

12 Current Conditions Kenya KENYA The 2015 LR Assessment Report General improvement in the food security situation attributed to the on-going harvest, improved milk production and income as result of good MAM rains as well as cross-boarder food (trade) inflow. However, about 1.1m people are still in phase 3&4, though the number has declined by 31% compared to 2015 SR assessment. Localized parts northern Isiolo and western Wajir still experiencing food insecurity. Turkana County still remains at very critical, though the situation has notably improved. Food prices across most urban, pastoral and marginal agricultural markets remains fairly stable. This is due to supplies from harvest and imports. Food security expected to deteriorate through October as a result of below-average production over previous two seasons and uneven rainfall in southeastern and coastal areas. Projected above-average rainfall during October-December could improve food security outcomes over longer term.

13 Population in Food Insecurity Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phase 3 & 4) Country Pop in IPC phase 3 & 4 Source Burundi 100,000 Preliminary IPC, Aug 2015 CAR 1,268,000 IPC April 2015 Djibouti 120,000 DRC 6,500,000 IPC Dec 2014 June 2015 Ethiopia 4,505,111 HRD, Aug 2015 Kenya 1,074, 000 KFSSG, Feb 2015 Somalia FSNAU, August 2015 South Sudan 2,750,000 IPC, Aug-Sept 2015 projection Uganda 294,945 IPC June 2015 Sudan 1,288,759 IPC, June 2015 TOTAL 17,900,815

14 September 2015 Nutrition Update FSNWG Nutrition Sub-Group Eastern and Central African Region Nutrition Update 24 th September 2015

15 September 2015 Nutrition Update Regional Context In September 2015, 17.9 million people in elevated food insecurity in East and Central Africa INCREASED VULNERABILITY TO 3.6 MILLION CHILDREN UNDER FIVES: SEVERE AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION, FEEDING PRACTICES, MORBIDITY/MORTALITY

16 September 2015 Nutrition Update Ethiopia Bi annual nutrition surveys (June/July 2015) Increased GAM rates Children in 56% of surveyed woredas with GAM above 15% Critical situation for children (based on WHO standards)

17 September 2015 Nutrition Sub-Group Ethiopia January to July 2015, 177,748 SAM cases admissions nationwide July 2015 admissions (31,729 cases) are significantly higher than in Increase in SAM admissions however, does not portray the regional and woreda level deterioration observed in the Belg affected areas GoE revised 2015 SAM target from 264,000 to 302,000

18 September 2015 Nutrition Update Ethiopia Priority Woredas (nutrition hotspot) Increased number (x3) of nutrition hotspot (priority 1 woredas from 49 to 142) Priority 1 Woredas Priority 2 Woredas Priority 3 Woredas Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 August 2015 nutrition hotspots: Oromia (48), Amhara (35), Somali (19), Afar (17), SNNP (15), Tigray (7), Gambella (1)

19 September 2015 Nutrition Update Somalia Acute malnutrition, Somalia, July 2015 Estimated acute malnutrition situation, Somalia, Aug-Oct 2015 Deterioration in the nutrition situation of children in some parts of central and southern regions of Somalia

20 September 2015 Nutrition Update Somalia Increased in the number of children in need of treatment for acute malnutrition: 214,700 to 343,400. Critical levels of acute malnutrition in Hiraan region (Bulo Burte district) and deterioration in food security and nutrition situation in Bakool region Nutrition situation amongst IDPs is of high concern: 68% of population in IPC 3 & 4 are IDPs

21 September 2015 Nutrition Update Somalia SAM admissions trends (first three months, ): Higher SAM admissions in Q1 Higher SAM admissions higher in 2015 Admissions to nutrition centers indicate a worrisome nutrition situation in: Hiraan region (Bulo Burte and Beled Weyne); Banadir region; riverine livelihood areas in Gedo Shabelle regions; Bay and Bakool pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood areas; pastoral and agro-pastoral areas along the Juba valley; Addun Hawd livelihood areas in Central regions; IDP populations.

22 September 2015 Nutrition Update Kenya Nutrition situation has improved in most areas assessed due to improved food security outcomes. BUT Turkana County still remains at very critical/ critical levels as GAM dropped from 17.4 to 16.7 percent in Turkana West, from 28.7 to 20.9 percent in Turkana Central and, 27.2 to 22.9 percent in Turkana North. Unchanged in Turkana South and East at 24.5 percent. Critical situation in Mandera County (GAM percent) due to extremely high vulnerabilities in the county. Nutrition situation deteriorated in: Wajir North from poor to critical with prevalence of GAM increasing from 8.8 percent to 14.3 percent. Isiolo County has also deteriorated from serious to critical given this area did suffer from poor rainfall and is currently classified in IPC Phase 3 - Crisis. Nutrition situation improved from very critical to critical in East Pokot (secondary data). The total number of children less than five years requiring treatment (total caseloads) in the areas assessed has dropped to 239,446 in the LRA 2015 compared to 261,120 reported in the 2015 short rains assessment

23 September 2015 Nutrition Update Eritrea Djibouti Trend of acute malnutrition based on MUAC screening - in Southern Red Sea (SRS), Gash Barka and Anseba regions has steadily increased in the last three years. April 2015 MUAC screening: national GAM rate is around 5 % Data collection for the UNICEF and WFP supported food security and nutrition assessment completed. Data analysis to be completed by end September Admissions of SAM and MAM cases increased in Obock and Balbala, a periurban area of Djibouti City, when compared to last year Implications of the Yemen crisis: fragile nutritional status of some of the Yemeni children arriving to Djibouti in coastline areas from Hajjah to Abyan with acute malnutrition above WHO emergency threshold of 15 per cent lean season is expected to be more severe than usual, particularly in the Southeastern pastoral and Obock areas

24 September 2015 Nutrition Update Burundi MUAC Screening in Nyanzalac health district, Makamba province, July 2015: MUAC based 8.3% MUAC based 1% MUAC based 7.3% A Stunting baseline survey conducted in Aug/Sept in Rutana, Karuzi and Muramya provinces. To estimate the prevalence of stunting, food consumption scores, level of minimum acceptable diet among children 6-23 months Preliminary results will be out in October Planned EFSA in October Rwanda CFSVA conducted by WFP in may 2015 in all districts (30) > Draft report to be released soon Nutrition survey planned in Mahama refugee camp in October 2015 Uganda Karamoja region: Serious GAM was at 14.1 % in June 2015 with 4 (Moroto, Napak, Nakapiripirit and Kaabong) out of the 7 districts having a critical GAM level. SAM at 3.7%, above SAM emergency Worst off situation in Moroto and Napak where SAM was at 6% and 5.5% respectively.

25 September 2015 Nutrition Update South Sudan Dire nutrition situation. Deterioration is likely because of: Few or no planting and no harvesting in Greater Upper Nile area The planted crops in the Greater Equatorial will likely not give a huge bumper harvest due to the erratic rains the planting period The high prices of basic foods mostly affecting the vulnerable The unstable currency causing prices of basic foods being imported to be expensive High morbidity, compounded by poor health seeking behaviors, WASH and other factors

26 September 2015 Nutrition Update South Sudan Revised SAM Target 143,442 Reached July % (86,023) Revised MAM Target 344,255 Reached July % (170,567)

27 September 2015 Nutrition Update South Sudan Bentiu POC updates: GAM: 34.1% (95%CI: ) SAM: 10.5 %% (95%CI: ) Significantly Higher GAM among newly arrived children when compared to other children in the POC GAM rates above critical level as per WHO standards. Crude mortality rate: 1.29 ( ) (95% CI) Under five mortality rate: 0.17 ( ) (95% CI) CMR and U5MR under WHO emergency threshold (2/10,000 persons/day for crude mortality rate and 4/10,000 U5 children/day for U5MR)

28 September 2015 Nutrition Update Regional nutritional synthesis Critical nutrition situation for young children in several countries various scale- due to a deterioration of household food security: Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, South Sudan, Kenya Concern over the nutrition situation of IDP children especially in Somalia Food security forecast and upcoming development to influence ongoing observations for child nutrition and other vulnerable population, in the coming months Absence of up to date information on child nutrition status limits national and regional analysis remains a concern for some countries.

29 Regional refugee update

30 South Sudan situation The security situation in Upper Nile remains volatile and tense. In the South of Malakal, there has been intermittent fighting this month. IGAD-sponsored ceasefire and transitional security workshop started in Addis Ababa on 12 th September to discuss mechanisms to ensure the peace deal holds.

31 Burundi situation (as of 13 th September) The situation in Burundi remains volatile with continued incidents of sporadic violence in the capital. UNHCR is anticipating that the situation will not improve and will prepare an updated regional response plan for The overall arrival trend in Tanzania and Uganda has reduced. The government of Tanzania has officially announced new camp sites.

32 Nutrition and food security updates South Sudan: 30% food ration reduction until the end of the year. Recent MUAC screening results in Upper Nile Doro camp show 14.2% MUAC malnutrition among children under five and 29.8% MUAC malnutrition among pregnant and lactating women. Sudan: UNHCR and UNICEF signed a letter of understanding to coordinate the nutrition interventions to South Sudanese refugees in West Nile State. The planning of a nutrition survey is under discussion. Kenya: 30% food ration reduction until the end of the year. Annual SENS conducted in Dadaab in August 2015 shows that the GAM prevalence in all 5 camps is between 5 and 10%, while the prevalence of SAM varies between 1 and 1.4%. However anaemia prevalence among children under five is above 40% in 4 of the 5 camps. The results for IYCF show low levels of exclusive breastfeeding (below 25% in 4 of the 5 camps).

33 Nutrition and food security updates Tanzania (Nyarugusu): Rapid Joint Assessment Mission conducted between 1 st 4 th September. Participation from WFP, UNHCR, UNICEF, FAO and partners. Objectives: 1) Update the food security and nutrition situation in Nyarugusu refugee operation, with particular attention to the Burundi new arrivals. 2) Review the quality and appropriateness of the ongoing food security and nutrition program identifying good practices, principle constraints, lessons learned and areas requiring improvement. 3) Identify effective food security, nutrition and livelihood interventions that will protect and ensure continued food and nutrition security in sustainable manner. Methodology: review of secondary data and collection of primary data through focus group discussions, key informant interviews, observation.

34 MARKET UPDATE

35 USD/MT September 2015 USD/MT for Juba, South Sudan Figure 1: Maize Price Projections for Selected Markets in East Africa (TSP, MAD + or USD 40/MT) Source: FEWSNET Mombasa, Kenya Masindi, Uganda Juba, South Sudan Mbeya, Tanzania Qorioley, Somalia

36 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 USD/MT September 2015 USD/MT for Juba, South Sudan Figure 1: Sorghum Price Projections (dotted) for Selected Markets in East Africa (TSP, MAD = 10%). Source: FEWSNET Baidoa, Somalia Kisumu, Kenya Juba, South Sudan (retail) Gulu, Uganda (retail) Gadarif, Sudan

37 Climate Update By Zachary Atheru IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC)

38 GHACOF 41 consensus climate outlook for September to December 2015 Analogue years Tuesday, September 29, 2015 INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON DEVELOPMENT 38

39 FORECAST IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOND LTM DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOND FORECAST AND LTM Tuesday, September 29, 2015 INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON DEVELOPMENT 39

40 CLIMATE UPDATE There is 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter , gradually weakening through spring 2016 Tuesday, September 29, 2015 INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON DEVELOPMENT 40

41 CURRENT SST ANOMALIES Tuesday, September 29, 2015 INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON DEVELOPMENT 41

42 INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE Tuesday, September 29, 2015 INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON DEVELOPMENT 42

43 Thank you Tuesday, September 29, 2015 INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON DEVELOPMENT 43

44 El Nino Update Status of regional and national preparedness actions At the regional level, countries likely to be affected by El Nino events (exceptionally heavy or flash floods or unexpected major droughts) should quickly test their respective early warning systems, response capacity and ensure that they are fully operational. OCHA Regional office is following up especially in countries where impact of El Nino may be highest.

45 Country El Nino preparedness actions as of mid-september 2015 Country Early warning actions Response activities Eritrea Kenya Ethiopia Somalia There is no national or UN El Nino contingency plan for multiple hazards in Eritrea The 2014 El Nino contingency plan is updated with 2015 action plan by sector by 22 September Kenya Red Cross has preparedness plan and are working to harmonise with national contingency plan Sub-national preparedness plans in place for every region Based on national disaster management structure El Nino contingency plan being finalised by humanitarian partners Access may be a problem There is a NDOC-led El Nino preparedness and response taskforce with KRCS has started regular meetings with response actors (line ministries) National DRM taskforce has action plans for every ministry Safety net for drought-affected

46 Country El Nino preparedness actions as of mid-september 2015 Country Early warning actions Response activities Rwanda Burundi Djibouti Uganda Sudan South There is a national El Nino-focused contingency plan There is a national multi hazard contingency plan including floods. There is a national contingency plan inclusive of floods. There is a national contingency plan inclusive of floods. NECOC is coordinating, collecting and sharing forecast information with district officials and other relevant stakeholders. Humanitarian partners working on multi-hazard early warning plan. Humanitarian partners working on Burundi Red Cross has flood response experience. External support (first responders French, US armies) needed to support increased number of vulnerable groups (vulnerable Djiboutians, Yemeni refugees in camps or host communities) The Government-led DRR taskforce has met to discuss and sectoral, district contingency plans are being developed