Outline of the presentation

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1 26/7/211 DVLOPMN OF BIO-NRGY COR AND I LINK O FOR MANAGMN AND FOR INDURI Nicklas Forsell 1 Ljusk Ola riksson 2 di Assoumou 1 1 Center for Applied Mathematics, MIN Parisech Chair Parisech Modeling for sustainable development 2 Department of Forest Resource Management wedish University of Agricultural ciences 9 July 211 IA-AP Workshop tanford University Outline of the presentation Bio-energy production in weden Conclusions 1

2 26/7/211 Bio-energy production in weden 3/13 IA-AP Workshop tanford University July Bio-energy production is a major source of renewable energy in weden Rapid development of bioenergy production Bio-energy production is largely based on woody biomass Agricultural sector supplies only 1% of biomass used for energy purposes 5 Wh Wh Use of biomass in district heating Use of biomass in industries Biofuels, peat etc. for electricity production Other fuels and statistical difference Peat all oil pitch Wood fuels Refuse Other sectors awmill industry byproducts Biofuels, peat etc. for electricity production Pulp industry, other byproducts. Pulp industry, Black liquors ource: wedish nergy Agency: nergy in weden, facts and figures 29, 29:29 Bio-energy production in weden 4/13 IA-AP Workshop tanford University July Growth of the bio-energy sector has induced: Competition for woody biomass Higher cost of biomass Change is forest management Little change in agricultural sector F O R H A R V Residues imber Pulpwood District Heating plants Residues Pellets awmills Board industries Woodchips Pulp & paper industries Residential heating nergy awn wood Pulp & paper nergy 2

3 26/7/211 Bio-energy production in weden 5/13 IA-AP Workshop tanford University July What will a continued growth of the bio-energy production bring? Forest management? Use of biomass? Competition for biomass? F O R H A R V Residues imber Pulpwood District Heating plants Residues Pellets awmills Board industries Woodchips Pulp & paper industries Residential heating nergy awn wood Pulp & paper nergy 6/13 IA-AP Workshop tanford University July General outline of the IM model 3

4 26/7/211 7/13 IA-AP Workshop tanford University July General outline of the flow of forest biomass 8/13 IA-AP Workshop tanford University July weden is divided into four regions Cost-supply curves of re on regional or national level Agricultural crops in terms of: tarch, ugar, Oil, Woody, and Grassy crops 1 st and 2 nd generation biofuel conversion technologies AB C D F G H I K M N O U W X Y Z AC BD tockholm Uppsala ödermanland Östergötland Jönköping Kronoberg Kalmar Gotland Blekinge kåne Halland Västra Götaland Värmland Örebro Västmanland Dalarna Gävleborg Västernorrland Jämtland Västerbotten Norrbotten 4

5 M3/y M3/y 26/7/211 9/13 IA-AP Workshop tanford University July Fixed potential of agricultural crops Potential of forest biomass is endogenously computed A set of forest harvest scenarios are considered ach harvest scenario is: Applicable Longt-term sustainable Harvest of forestry biomass otal BAU 1/13 IA-AP Workshop tanford University July Fixed potential of agricultural crops Potential of forest biomass is endogenously computed A set of forest harvest scenarios are considered ach harvest scenario is: Applicable Longt-term sustainable Harvest of forestry biomass BAU cenario 1 cenario 7 5

6 M3/y PJ /7/211 11/13 IA-AP Workshop tanford University July Fixed potential of agricultural crops Potential of forest biomass is endogenously computed A set of forest harvest scenarios are considered ach harvest scenario is: Applicable Longt-term sustainable Harvest of forestry biomass BAU cenario 1 cenario 2 cenario 3 cenario 4 cenario 5 cenario 6 cenario 7 12/13 IA-AP Workshop tanford University July cenarios for sensitivity analysis: Demand of bioenergy cenarios concerning demand of bio-energy Demand of woody products Cost of agricultural biomass upply of agricultural biomass B1 B2 B3 Industries (heat) District heating (heat) Residential heat Bioethanol Industries (electricity) District heating (electricity) Biodiesel 6

7 M3/y MonD/year 26/7/211 13/13 IA-AP Workshop tanford University July mall change in forest management 12 Harvest of forestry biomass Optimal forest harvest level is promoting: High short-term harvest Low mid-term harvest BAU end-term harvest 4 Optimal forest harvest was suprisingly robust to scenarios 2 BAU Optimal cenario 1 cenario 7 14/13 IA-AP Workshop tanford University July Large change in use of biomass Particular high impact for district heating plants Biomass used for district heating High amounts of energy crops will be used Logistics chain needs to be adapted Residues, pulp, timber Agricultural crops Woody by-products 7

8 MonD/year MonD/year 26/7/211 15/13 IA-AP Workshop tanford University July Large change in competition for biomass Use of pulpwood for energy purposes No pulpwood used for energy purposes after 245 in all scenarios RF 16/13 IA-AP Workshop tanford University July Large change in competition for biomass Use of pulpwood for energy purposes No pulpwood used for energy purposes after 245 in all scenarios RF High demand bioenergy High demand woody products Low agricultural potential Low agricultural cost Low demand bioenergy Low demand woody products High agricultural potential High agricultural cost 8

9 MonD/year 26/7/211 17/13 IA-AP Workshop tanford University July Large change in competition for biomass No pulpwood used for energy purposes after 245 in all scenarios Use of pulpwood for energy purposes RF Conclusion 18/13 IA-AP Workshop tanford University July Analyzed implications of a continued growth of the bio-energy sector Incorporated forest industries and possible adaptations of forest management in A short term increase in the forestry harvest level may be expected and beneficial Large-scale production of energy crops would be beneficial Farmers may need incentivizes to grow energy crops Logistics chain of energy crops needs to be developed 9