Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights

Transcription

1 Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights London, Houston, Washington, New York, Portland, Calgary, Santiago, Bogota, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Beijing, Tokyo, Sydney, Dubai, Moscow, Astana, Kiev, Porto and Johannesburg

2 The Politics of Energy Washington, DC David Ivanovich 19 September 2012

3 Key findings Higher gasoline prices will hurt Obama but will not be devastating for him in swing states Obama continues to poll better than Romney on energy Romney s policy positions could hurt him in Ohio, Florida and Iowa Energy could be an issue in three of the tight races Republicans need to win to take control of Senate

4 Swing states

5 Pump prices on the rise Retail regular gasoline prices Price: 17-Sep-12 $/USG Price: 15-Sep-08 $/USG Change $/USG Price summer low $/USG Recent change $/USG US Swing states Colorado Florida Ohio Key cities Cleveland Denver Miami Source: Energy Information Administration

6 US motorists on the road Highway vehicle miles traveled/capita, 2010 District of Columbia Alaska New York Hawaii Rhode Island New Mexico Oklahoma Alabama Mississippi Wyoming US 5,936 6,719 6,767 7,331 7,867 9,590 12,259 12,698 13,408 13,414 16, ,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

7 Swing-state motorists drive more than average Highway vehicle miles traveled/capita, 2010 Nevada Colorado Ohio New Hampshire Virginia Iowa Florida Wisconsin US 7,809 9,299 9,693 9,922 10,241 10,291 10,391 10,440 9, ,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

8 Home heating fuel mix Home heating fuels/pc of housing units percent Utility gas Bottled, tank or LP gas Electricity Fuel oil, kerosene Other Source: 2010 US Census

9 Heating oil prices higher 4.0 Winter heating oil prices (Oct-Mar) $/USG (Forecast) Source: Energy Information Administration

10 Propane prices lowest since Residential winter propane prices (Oct-Mar) $/USG (Forecast) Source: Energy Information Administration

11 Obama may benefit from warm weather Source: Climate Prediction Center

12 Dueling energy strategies

13 Obama s approach to energy Calls for all-of-the-above energy strategy Raises greenhouse gas (GHG)/fuel economy standards for cars and light trucks to equivalent of 54.5 miles/usg by 2025 Pushes for elimination of tax provisions that save oil and gas sector $4bn/yr Delays decision on Keystone XL pipeline until next year

14 Shale revolution alters oil and gas outlook US oil production tops 6mn b/d for first time since 1998 US dependence on foreign oil drops to lowest level in 17 years US gross gas production reaches record 80 Bcf/d Prospect of low natural gas prices for extended period promises reversal of generations-long exodus of manufacturing jobs

15 Obama s energy fumbles Fails to push through cap-and-trade legislation to address climate change, despite Democraticcontrolled Congress Engages in regulatory overreach with drilling moratorium after Deepwater Horizon accident Allows production of oil, natural gas, NGLs and coal on federal lands to fall in 2011 against 2010 Arouses suspicion in coal country

16 Romney promises to Transform US into energy superpower and ensure North America is energy independent by 2020 Open more of outer continental shelf, ANWR to oil and gas drilling Approve construction of Keystone XL pipeline Promote use of coal

17 Romney on climate change Supports amending Clean Air Act to bar EPA from regulating GHG emissions Mocks Obama s efforts to address global warming: President Obama promised to begin to slow the rise of the oceans and to heal the planet. My promise is to help you and your family.

18 Swing state politics

19 Ohio Candidates battle for coal vote, but few jobs tied to sector Liquids-rich Utica shale creates jobs in eastern Ohio but voter awareness modest Obama links auto bailout to fuel economy/ghg standards

20 Florida Romney calls for greater access to outer continental shelf, but offshore drilling controversial BP cleans up oil from Macondo blowout stirred up by Hurricane Isaac Justice Department accuses BP of gross negligence

21 Iowa Iowa boasts most installed wind power capacity in US, after Texas Wind energy industry warns layoffs sparked by uncertainty over production tax credit extension Romney opposes extension of the credit, suffers criticism from fellow Republicans

22 Colorado Oil, gas and coal production important to state economy Bureau of Land Management controls 8.3mn acres here Romney proposes to allow states to oversee onshore energy production on federal lands

23 Battle for the Senate

24 Republicans in hunt for seats

25 Virginia Republican George Allen and Democrat Tim Kaine both support drilling offshore But Allen hits Kaine over coal, tries to link to Obama Alpha Natural Resources announces mine closures this week

26 North Dakota Oil output surpasses 674,000 b/d in July, more than Opec member Ecuador Republican Rick Berg favorite recipient of oil and gas campaign contributions Democrat Heidi Heitkamp describes herself as energy champion, keeps race tight

27 Montana Bakken extends into Montana Democratic incumbent Jon Tester in tough fight with Republican Denny Rehberg Tester seldom sides with the oil and gas industry, except on Keystone XL, while Rehberg nearly always does

28 Wild cards Release from Strategic Petroleum Reserve could push down oil and fuel prices Surprise economic news could send prices tumbling War with Iran could change global energy equation

29 Any questions?

30 David Ivanovich Senior Washington Correspondent Washington, DC Copyright notice All intellectual property rights in this presentation and the information herein are the exclusive property of Argus and and/or its licensors and may only be used under licence from Argus. Without limiting the foregoing, by reading this presentation you agree that you will not copy or reproduce any part of its contents (including, but not limited to, single prices or any other individual items of data) in any form or for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written consent of Argus. Trademark notice ARGUS, ARGUS MEDIA, the ARGUS logo, FMB, ARGUS publication titles and ARGUS index names are trademarks of Argus Media Ltd. Visit for more information. Disclaimer All data and other information presented (the Data ) are provided on an as is basis. Argus makes no warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness, or completeness of the Data or fitness for any particular purpose. Argus shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any party s reliance on the Data and disclaims any and all liability related to or arising out of use of the Data to the full extent permissible by law.