Back-casting approach and modeling for low-carbon city scenarios

Transcription

1 Back-casting approach and modeling for low-carbon city scenarios Kei GOMI Kyoto University International Workshop on Urban Energy and Carbon Modeling in Rapidly Urbanizing World 11th Mar IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

2 Contents Backcasting approach Phase 1: Extended snapshot tool Phase 2: Backcasting tool Lessons learned from application 2 2 2

3 Backcasting Approach Target year Vision Socio-economic indicators Energy demand GHG emissions LC measures Present Roadmap Schedule of measures Cost to implement measures GHG emissions reductions Ancillary benefit of measures 3 Scenario 3

4 Backcasting Approach Static model 1 Target year Vision Socio-economic indicators Energy demand GHG emissions LC measures Present 2 Dynamic model Schedule of measures Roadmap Cost to implement measures GHG emissions reductions Ancillary benefit of measures 4 Scenario 4

5 Procedure to develop LCS scenarios (1) Establish the framework Base year, target year, area, lcs target etc. (3) Socio-economic scenario Narrative scenario, Socioeconomic parameters in the target year 1. Vision (2) Collection of the base year information Socio-economic statistics, Energy statistics, etc (5) Estimating a snapshot using ExSS (4) Collection of low-carbon measures Information of lowcarbon measures Socio-economic variables, Energy demand, GHG emissions, LC measures (6) Developing a roadmap Indirect measures Relations between measures Grouping into actions 2. Roadmap (7) Setting quantitative information of measures Input resource, Integrated effect, Shortest period Earliest starting year Upper bound of resource (8) Estimating a roadmap using BCT Schedule of measures, Input resource, GHG emission reduction in every year 5

6 Phase 1. Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) A static, accounting type model Consists of simultaneous equations with about 6000 variables Mainly for local LCS scenarios, but can be applied for initial analysis of national ones. It describes relations between; Demography, Life style, Economic activity, Transport demand Energy demand & supply side technology, Energy consumption and CO 2 emissions from all activities within boundary (similar with Geography Plus ) Quick calculation (approx. 1 min. GAMS) Can be used with other models 6

7 Estimation flow Export by goods Investment Government expenditure Import ratio Input coefficient matrix Floor area per output Energy service demand per driving force Energy end-use device share Energy end-use device energy efficiency Dispersed power generation (DPG) Energy efficiency DPG IO analysis Labor productivity Output of commercial industry Commercial building floor area Fuel share Energy efficiency Output by industry Energy demand (DPG) Labor participation ratio Demographic composition Wage Consumption Output of manufacturing industry Freight transport demand Labor demand Energy service demand Final energy demand Population Passenger transport demand Income Population Number of household Central power generation (CPG) Energy demand (CPG) Taxation and social security Consumption pattern Household size Trip per person Trip distance Modal share Freight generation per output Transport distance Modal share Energy efficiency (CPG) Fuel share (CPG) Transmission loss (CPG) Own use (CPG) Exogenous variables Parameters Endogenous variables Primary energy supply CO2 emssions CO 2 emission factor Carbon sink 7

8 ExSS and other AIM models Economy: - Economic growth level - Basic industries in the region - Fiscal policy - Private investment including FDI - Technological development - Consideration of environment Energy*: - Technological development - Availability of energy resource - Fuel price - Power supply policy - Behavior change - Awareness of people & business *Related to selection of LC measures. Household: - Demographic structure - Sense of value - Balance of work & life - Consumption style - Living style - Education - Time use Transport & land use: - Population distribution - Share of vehicles** - Urban/rural development plan** - Construction of infrastructure** - Nature conservation area - Renewal of building stock ** Sometimes regarded as LC measures/ Industrial structure Macro-economy model House and building dynamics model LC measures AIM/enduse Energy supply model LC measures Input coefficient Export by goods Capital formation Gov. expenditure Import ratio Floor area per output Energy service demand per driving force Fuel share Energy efficiency CO 2 emission factor Carbon sink Fuel share Energy efficiency Own use Transmission loss IO analysis Technological evelopment Output of commercial industry Commercial building floor area Output by industry Power generation Labor productivity Wage Consumption Output of manufacturing industry Freight transport demand Labor demand Energy demand Population Passenger transport demand Education Income CO2 emission Population Number of household Labor participation ratio Demographic composition Taxation and social security Consumption pattern Household size Trip per person Trip distance Modal share Freight generation per output Transport distance Modal share Lifestyle Population/household dynamics model Household production and lifestyle model LC measures Land use plan Traffic demand Model LC measures Energy balance table GHG emissions inventory LC measures portfolio IO table Labor/population balance table Transport demand Household account 8 etc Key scenario elements to be assumed Detailed assumptions without formal model Element models in AIM tools Parameters/exogenous variables to be input Endogenous variables Output of ExSS Introduction of counter measures to be reflected 8

9 Phase 2: Backcasting Tool Based on constraints and input information of measures, BCT estimates, Schedule of measures Emission reduction pass Annual input resource (financial and human) It also considers time needed for R&D, developing financial mechanism, social decision making, etc. Integrated effect is also considered. 9 9

10 Application Completed Kyoto city, Japan Shiga prefecture, Japan Johor (Iskandar Malaysia), Malaysia Putrajaya, Malaysia Thailand Ahmedabad, India Indonesia Vietnam Proceeding/plannning Ratchaburi, Thailand Higashi-ohmi, Japan Nagasaki, Japan Hanoi, Vietnum Guangzhou, China Bhopal, India Bangladesh Cambodia 10 10

11 Kyoto city: Vision Socio-economic indicators / GHG emissions 8897 Residential Population (10 4 ) No. of households (10 4 ) Commercial Industry GDP (bill yen) GDP per capita (mill yen/capita) Gross output (bill yen) Primary industry CO 2 emissions (kt- CO 2 ) Passenger Transport Freight Transport Waste incineration Secondary industry Tertiary industry Passenger transport (mill p- km) Freight transport (mill t-km) BaU 2030 CM 11

12 Residential Commercial Industry Passenger Transport Freight Transport Others Low-carbon measures Contribution to CO2 emissions reduction (compared to Frozen) Energy- saving behavior Improvement of energy efficiency Fuel shift & Natural energy Energy- saving behavior Improvement of energy efficiency Fuel shift & Natural energy Improvement of energy efficiency Fuel shift Eco- driving Modal shift Improvement of energy efficiency Fuel shift & Natural energy Improvement of energy efficiency Fuel shift & Natural energy Reduction of emissions per power generation Forest absorption Reduction of waste incineration CO 2 emissions reduction (kt- CO 2 ) Direct measures Sector Low- carbon countermeasure Data Source Category (*) Emissions reduction (kt- CO 2) Air conditioner (***) Highest energy efficiency air conditioner COP E Diffusion ratio (cooling and heating) 50% High energy efficiency air conditioner COP E Diffusion ratio (cooling and heating) 50% High energy efficiency kerosene heating COP E Diffusion ratio (heating: kerosene) 80% High energy efficiency gas heating COP E Diffusion ratio (heating: gas) 80% High energy efficiency oil water heater COP E Diffusion ratio (hot water: oil) 70% Gas water heater Latent heat recovery- type water heater COP E Diffusion ratio (hot water: gas) 50% High energy efficiency gas water heater COP E Diffusion ratio (hot water: gas) 50% Heat pump water heater COP E Diffusion ratio (hot water: electricity) 70% High energy efficiency gas cooker Thermal efficiency (base year= 1) E Diffusion ratio (cooking: gas) 70% High energy efficiency IH cooker Thermal efficiency (base year= 1) E Diffusion ratio (cooking: electricity) 70% Fluorescent light LED (substitute fluorescent light) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% Hf inverter fluorescent light Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% Incandescent light LED (substitute incandescent light) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% Bulb- type fluorescent light Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% Refrigerator Super high energy efficiency refrigerator Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% Highest energy efficiency refrigerator Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% TV LCD TV Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% Highest energy efficiency TV Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% House insulation Next generation level Thermal loss (base year= 1) E Diffusion ratio 40% New standard Thermal loss (base year= 1) E Diffusion ratio 40% Energy- saving behavior Energy service demand reduction ratio 10% 5 B Diffusion ratio 25% Photovoltaic generation Potential(ktoe) S Diffusion ratio 10% Solar water heating Potential(ktoe) S Diffusion ratio (hot water: all) 10% Other energy efficiency improvement E Other fuel shifting S Total Air conditioner (cooling only) Super high energy efficiency air conditioner (cooling only) COP E Diffusion ratio (cooling: electricity) 50% Highest energy efficiency air conditioner (cooling only) COP E Diffusion ratio (cooling: electricity) 50% Cooling (gas) High energy efficiency gas heat pump COP E Diffusion ratio (cooling: gas) 40% High energy efficiency absorption tiller (gas) COP E Diffusion ratio (cooling: gas) 40% High energy efficiency absorption tiller(oil) COP E Diffusion ratio (cooling: oil) 70% High energy efficiency boiler (oil) COP E Diffusion ratio (heating: oil) 70% High energy efficiency boiler (gas) COP E Diffusion ratio (heating: gas) 70% Air conditioner (heating only) Super high energy efficiency air conditioner (heating only) COP E Diffusion ratio (heating: electricity) 90% Highest energy efficiency air conditioner (heating only) COP E Diffusion ratio (heating: electricity) 10% High energy efficiency oil water heater COP E Diffusion ratio (hot water: oil) 70% Gas water heater High energy efficiency gas waterheater COP E Diffusion ratio (hot water: gas) 50% Latent heat recovery- type water heater COP E Diffusion ratio (hot water: gas) 50% CO 2 cooling medium water heater COP E Diffusion ratio (hot water: electricity) 100% High energy efficiency gas cooker Thermal efficiency (base year= 1) E Diffusion ratio (cooking: gas) 70% IH cooking heater Thermal efficiency (base year= 1) E Diffusion ratio (cooking: electricity) 70% Incandescent light Timer controlled LED (substitute fluorescent light) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% Illumination controlled LED (substitute fluorescent light) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% Incandescent light LED (substitute incandescent light) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% Bulb- type fluorescent light Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% High- intensity evacuation light Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 70% Large scale computer (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 70% Personal computer (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 70% Copier (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 70% Fax machine (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 70% Printer (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 70% Elevator (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 70% Ventilation with energy- saving fan Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% with low- pressure duct Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% Vending machine (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 70% Traffic light (LED type) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 70% High energy efficiency transformer Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 70% Other electric appliances % energy- saving type Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% 10% energy- saving type Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% Building insulation Thermal loss (base year= 1) E Diffusion ratio 100% BEMS Energy demand reduction ratio 10% 10 E Diffusion ratio 25% Energy- saving behavior Energy service demand reduction ratio 10% 5 B Diffusion ratio 25% Photovoltaic generation Potential(ktoe) S Diffusion ratio 10% Solar water heating Potential(ktoe) S Diffusion ratio (hot water: all) 5% Other fuel shifting S Total Energy efficient equipments E High energy efficiency boiler Thermal efficiency(base year= 1) Diffusion ratio 80% High energy efficiency furnace Thermal efficiency(base year= 1) Diffusion ratio 80% High energy efficiency morter Electricity consumption(base year= 1) Diffusion ratio 80% Inverter control Electricity consumption(base year= 1) Diffusion ratio 80% Fuel shifting From oil to gas S Shifting ratio 60% Increase in the ratio of seasonal vegetable production Ratio of CO2 emissions against non- seasonal vegitable produc E Ratio of selling seasonal vegitables 36.2% Increase in the ratio of wooden buildings Ratio of CO2 emissions against non- wooden buildings E Diffusion ratio 30% Total Vehicle Hybrid vehicle Fuel cost (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% High energy efficiency vehicle Fuel cost (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% Modal shift From vehicle to; B Intra area trip walking and bicycle Shifting ratio 15% train and bas Shifting ratio 30% Inter area trip bicycle Shifting ratio 10% train and bas Shifting ratio 30% Trip to outside of the city train Shifting ratio 30% Bio fuel From oil to bio fuel S Diffusion ratio 20% Eco- driving Fuel efficiency improvement ratio 24% 13 B Diffusion ratio 20% Total Vehicle Hybrid vehicle Fuel cost (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% High energy efficiency vehicle Fuel cost (conventional type= 1) E Diffusion ratio 50% Bio fuel From oil to bio fuel S Diffusion ratio 20% Total Bio- methanol power generation 17 production of electricity (ktoe) Reducing the amount of waste incineration 17 Rate of CO 2 emissions reduction 40% , 4 Improvement of CO2 intensity of power generation CO 2 emission per generation (tc/toe) (****) Fuel shifting 14 Generation efficiency improvement Coal Generation efficiency 48% 15 Gas Generation efficiency 55% 16 Total Household sector Commercial sevtor Industrial sector Passenger transport sector Freight transport sector waste incineration & power supply Identified implementation intencity Action (**) 12

13 A system of 130 measures Walkable City, Kyoto *1 KICS- LLC: Kyoto Information Card System, LLC *2 LRT: Light Rail Transit *3 KES: KES Environmental Management System Standard *4 KESC: KES Community Mobility management Modal shift (automobile to railway or bus) Modal shift (automobile to railway) Modal shift (automobile to bus) Modal shift of visitors eco- vehicle eco- driving TDM promotion Transit mall Park & Ride Road pricing Increase of public transport use Improvement of environment for the usage of bicycle Amenity in the usage of railway Light Rail Transit Bus priority Sightseeing campaign using public transport Public transport information service Promotion of buying eco- vehicle Enlightenme nt for ecodriving Improvement of insulation level in houses Consulting service for energy saving houses Planning of consultation system for energy- efficient buildings Operation of consultation system for energy- efficient buildings better insulated houses Improvement of insulation level in business buildings CASBEE Kyoto Design of CASBEE Kyoto system Operation of CASBEE Kyoto system Holding training workshops of CASBEE Kyoto system Propagation of better insulated houses Propagation of better insulated offices Improvement of efficiency in business equipments TDM implementation Wooden houses Planning Heisei Kyo- Machiya type housing Construction of Heisei Kyo- Machiya prototypes of Heisei Kyo- Machiya type housing Heisei Kyo- Machiya type housing Energy- saving behavior in business establishment Improvement of emission intensity in construction Designing pedestrian transit mall Pavement widening Use of pedestrian transit mall Kyoto style Buildings and Forest Management Wooden public buildings Publishing guidance of wooden house specification Converting public buildings to wooden ones Construction of car- park Management of car- park park and ride Forest absorption Forest management of Integrated forestry plan of forestry management activation project Decarbonation of Industry Corporate environmental philanthropy Study on road pricing Construction of road pricing facility of Road pricing Reducing vehicle inflow planting tree on private space Operating subsidize system of tree planting Planting tree on private space Energy saving in public buildings Absorption of CO2 by planting tree Introducing IC card Improvement of public transport timetable More convenient terminal Increase of public transport use Planting tree on public space Planting tree on roadside Improvement of emission intensity in agriculture Public bicycle parking area Ordinance of bicycle parking area on commercial buildings Planning subsidy scheme on bicycle parking area Subsidize bicycle parking area Increase of bicycle parking area bicycle parking area Increase of bicycle use Reducing industrial solid waste incineration of KICS- LLC *1 model project Increase of KISC- LLC project Increase of railway use Enlightenment in lifestyle Encouragement of ecohousehold accounting Energy saving consulting service eco- community association energy saving labeling energy efficient home appliance energy saving behavior Improvement of efficiency in residential equipments Planning of LRT *2 system Construction of LRT system Operating LRT Using LRT system Environmental education Training of ecosupporters at Miyako Ecology Center Environmental education in school of Children s Eco- life Challenge Project energy efficient home appliance energy saving behavior Low Carbon Lifestyle Energysaving behavior in houses Board of bus using system promotion Increase of bus lane bus lane system Introducing public transport priority system Increase of bus use Eco- point Operating ecopoint system energy efficient home appliance PV/SWH Campaign sightseeing using public transport Planning intelligent bus transit system Operating intelligent bus transit Increase use of public transport by visitors outside of the city Reducing municipal waste incineration New recycling plan of new national recycling society plan Reducing municipal waste Improvement of sightseeing information display Public transport information service by website Increase use of public transport by visitors outside of the city Comprehensive Use of Renewable Energy Fuel shift of automobile (petroleum to biomass) Construction of electric vehicle recharge stations Eco- vehicle promotion Planning ecovehicle subsidy Eco- vehicle subsidy eco- vehicle Kyoto citizen environmental fund Operation of Kyoto citizen environmental fund Training of ecodriving eco- driving Establishment of a Funding Mechanism options by funds Forest environment tax Design of forest environment tax system of forest environment tax system Power generation by biomass Kyoto carbon offset Development of Kyoto carbon offset model project Full- scale operation of Kyoto carbon offset system Large emitter programs KES environmental management system standard Support for SME Promotion of R&D corporate environmental philanthropy Energy saving reform of public buildings Seasonal vegetable promotion New recycling plan PV/SWH for public buildings Promotion of PV/SWH for houses Sustaining BDF production Promotion of biofuel Bio methanol power generation Power generation by waste incineration of large programs energy efficient equipments energy saving managing system KES *3 consultation and lecture Bidding that gives preferential treatment to KES- certified companies energy efficient business equipments energy saving behavior Subsidy to small businesses Funding to small buisinesses energy efficient business equipments R&D in environment+ na no cluster research organization energy efficient home appliance developed in the nanocluster energy efficient business equipments developed in the nanocluster of KESC *4 Planning of public building reformation of energy saving systems Energy saving reformation of public buildings seasonal vegetable distribution Improvement of industrial production technique Increase the ratio of seasonal Kyoto vegetable consumption of new national recycling society plan Reducing industrial solid waste emission Creating a installation specification of PV/SWH for public building Installation of PV/SWH on public building Subsidize system of PV PV devices Collection of used cooking oil R&D of Gasified methanol development Setting guideline of biofuel use Differentiate taxation of biofuel use biofuel use in national scale Fuel shift of vehicle from oil to biofuel R&D of Gasified methanol Construction of bio methanol plant Operation of bio- methanol power generation 13 Power generation from solid waste incineration 13

14 Modal shift (from vehicles to trains and buses) Modal shift (from vehicles to bicycles) energy-efficient freight vehicles Energy-efficiency improvement of business equipments Energy-saving behavior in commercial buildings Shared street Widening of pavements Designing wider pavement Intelligent bus transit park and ride Modal shift (from vehicles to buses) Establishment of bus lanes Introduction of IC card to buses Bus priority system Construction of bicycle parking areas Modal shift (from vehicles to trains) Introduction of KICS-LLC Subsidy to introduce energyefficient freight vehicles Sightseeing promotion using public transport advertisements Energy efficiency improvement in residential sector Selection of energy-efficient home appliances Energy saving behavior in the home Modal shift (sight seeing) Improvement of sightseeing information displays Education on eco-driving eco-driving Information service on websites Submission of plans and reports by specified corporations of planing and reporting system Expansion of KES-certified corporations Energy-efficiency improvement in public buildings Repair of public buildings Energy saving renovation of public buildings Energy saving consultations and subsidy Education of KES (Kyoto environmental management standard) Energy-saving behavior in public buildings ESCO project on public buildings KESC (KES community) of CO 2 reduction action plan in public buildings CASBEE training Rooftop gardening Discussion on Kyoto prefecture and Kyoto city joint conference Carbon sinks (residential area) Subsidy for building greenery Insulation of commercial buildings Institutional design of CASBEE-Kyoto Roadside trees Residents conference on wooden houseing Establishment of building code Insulation of residential buildings Reduction of energy demand in construction Wooden housing Construction of prototype and promotion Preparation of prototype construction and promotion Discussions by project team energy-saving labeling Lectures and certification of energy-saving advisors Institutional design of energy-saving housing consulting Expansion of utilization of local wood Wooden public buildings Selection of facilities Regulation and guidance of wood utilization eco-community associations Subsidy for utilization of local wood utilization of local wood Gasified methanol experiments eco-household accounting Tree thinning Tree thinning plan Improvement of residents awareness Expansion of Children Challenging Eco-life project Carbon sinks (forest) Collection of used cooking oil Integrated forestry plan Forest environmental tax Environmental education at Miyako Ecology Center Discussion and proposition of ordinance by a project team Construction of gasified methanol plants Fuel shift of vehicles (from diesel oil to BDF) Expansion of BDF production Gasified methanol production Development of gasified methanol synthesis technology Energy saving advisory service Operation of citizens eco-fund Environmental education in elementary and junior high schools Expansion of funding sources and investment Establishment of citizens eco-fund Expansion of materials of BDF Collection of unused fat and oil Survey on deterioration of public buildings Operation of city carbon offset scheme Model project of city carbon offset scheme Reduction of waste incineration Reduction of waste generation of new recycling plan Formulation of new recycling plan Reduction of energy demand for agriculture Selection of ESCO supplier Expansion of seasonal Kyoto vegetable consumption seasonal Kyoto vegetables Improvement of growing techniques PV and solar water heaters Installations of PV and solar water heaters in public buildings power generation from waste More efficient generation facilities Establishment of guidelines of PV installation Fuel shift (from purchased electricity to biogas power generation) Construction of biogas plants Biogas production from methane fermentation Collection of kitchen garbage Formulation of CO 2 reduction action plan in public buildings Reduction of CO 2 emission factor in power generation Installations of PV and solar water heaters in private buildings Subsidy for PV installation Development of efficient methane fermentation technology Direct option Prerequisite option Partial prerequisite option Actions to which options belong Indirect option Accelerating option Harmonizing (parallel) option A city of walking, Kyoto Co-benefits of scenery and low-carbon Low-carbon lifestyle Low-carbon innovation Comprehensive use of renewable energy Establishment of a Funding mecahnism 14

15 Roadmap TDM implementation Designing pedestrian transit mall Pavement widening Use of pedestrian transit mall Construction of car- park Management of car- park park and ride Study on road pricing Construction of road pricing facility of Road pricing Reducing vehicle inflow by road pricing Introducing IC card Increase of public transport use (by IC card) Improvement of public transport timetable Increase of public transport use (by timetable improvement) More convenient terminal Increase of public transport use (by more convenient terminal) Public bicycle parking area Ordinance of bicycle parking area on commercial buildings Planning subsidy scheme on bicycle parking area Subsidize bicycle parking area Increase of bicycle parking area bicycle parking area Increase of bicycle parking area of KICS- LLC model project

16 Lessons learned (Local gov.) Difficulty of imaging far future for stakeholders Training of local officers At least one full-time officer Whose background is engineering Two years (Must be shorten) Leadership of the mayor (governor) Collaboration of various bureau of local government Stakeholders tend to think the estimation result is fixed number and can not be changed any more 16

17 Lessons learned (Technical) Data is NOT always necessary for Designing future (Future data does not exist!) Boundary: Similar with Geography Plus Which boundary can reduce the emissions most? Stakeholders wanted to develop ONE scenario 17

18 Lessons learned (Researchers) Local researchers must do modeling and scenario development. (Not me!) At least 2 local researchers should be involved A senior researcher who is influential to the government A young and smart researcher who is good at quantitative modeling 18

19 More Visit website to see our brochures: Papers Gomi, K., Shimada K., Matsuoka, Y., Natio, M. (2007), Scenario study for a regional low-carbon society, Sustainability Science, 2, Shimada K., Gomi, K., Matsuoka, Y., (2007), Developing a longterm local society design methodology towards a low-carbon economy: An application to Shiga Prefecture in Japan, Energy Policy, 37, Gomi, K., Shimada K., Matsuoka, Y., (2010), A low-carbon scenario creation method for a local-scale economy and its application in Kyoto city, Energy Policy, 38, Gomi, K., Ochi, Y., Matsuoka, Y., (2010), A concrete roadmap towards a low-carbon society in case of Kyoto city, Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy Special Issue, 2,

20 Seeking indirect options Can we start it immediately? No Find a barrier disturbing it Find a way to overcome the barrier Direct masure Barrier Prerequisite measure Barrier Prerequisite measure Can we complete it by the target year? Barrier No Find a barrier making it slow Find a way to overcome the barrier. Accelerating measure 20