Becoming an EU Member and Adapting to Climate Change: Case of Southeastern Europe. Ron Hoffer Environment and Water Advisor The World Bank July, 2008
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1 Becoming an EU Member and Adapting to Climate Change: Case of Southeastern Europe Ron Hoffer Environment and Water Advisor The World Bank July, 2008
2 Discussion Topics 3 Key messages EU membership & environment Climate trends and projections for SEE Implications for investments Partnerships and lessons from Spain Expo Zaragoza
3 Key Messages Expo Zaragoza
4 and climate change too? Expo Zaragoza
5 Expo Zaragoza
6 SEE Countries & the EU MEMBERS Slovenia Romania Bulgaria CANDIDATES Croatia Turkey FYR Macedonia POTENTIAL CANDIDATES Albania Bosnia-Herzegovina Serbia Montenegro Expo Zaragoza
7 EU membership & environment Expo Zaragoza
8 ' Nature protection and biodiversity ' Wastewater, drinking water, bathing water ' Air quality: stationary & mobile sources ' Waste prevention, recycling, reuse, disposal ' Industrial pollution control ' Chemicals and GMOs Expo Zaragoza
9 Not an easy job! Transposition align national laws Expo Zaragoza
10 Not an easy job! Implementation people & institutions Expo Zaragoza
11 Not an easy job! Compliance & Enforcement Expo Zaragoza
12 Not an easy job! % population connected to wastewater treatment plant: 0% Albania 4% BiH 23% Serbia 37% Croatia # of sanitary landfills: 0 (of >12) in Albania 6 (of >100) in BiH Costs to comply with EU acquis: 6 12 billion Euro for Croatia 34 billion Euro for Turkey: 12.7 B - drinking water 18.1 B - wastewater Source: Regional Environmental Center; Oct 2007 on W Balkans; Turkish MoEF Expo Zaragoza
13 EU energy policy E xpo Zaragoza
14 Weather and climate Zaragoza July ,000 BC paleoclimate - trends forecast - projections climate variability climate change Expo Zaragoza
15 It has been getting hotter Air temperature ( C) Zagreb, Croatia year averages; data courtesy of Croatia HydroMet Service Expo Zaragoza
16 Runoff has been decreasing Sava River at Zagreb Discharge (m^3/s) year averages; data courtesy of Croatia HydroMet Service Expo Zaragoza
17 Less moisture available to crops Potential evapotranspiration (mm) Potential ET at Zagreb year averages; data courtesy of Croatia HydroMet Service Expo Zaragoza
18 Projecting future climate Expo Zaragoza
19 Temperature projected to increase by mid-century Change in mean annual temp projected to from Suite of GCMs Source: World Bank Expo Zaragoza
20 Precipitation likely to decrease by midcentury Change in mean annual precipitation projected to from Suite of GCMs Source: World Bank Expo Zaragoza
21 Water available to rivers projected to decrease by mid-century Mean annual runoff projected to from Source: Milly et al. (2005, 008) Expo Zaragoza
22 Storm intensity likely to increase by mid-century Change in maximum 5-day precipitation projected to from Suite of GCMs Source: World Bank Expo Zaragoza
23 Implications on investments Energy strategy? Enough precipitation? Reservoir size? Environmental needs? Expo Zaragoza
24 Adaptation: Simple or Complex? Expand planting of drought-tolerant crops Introduce more efficient irrigation technologies Enlarge storage reservoirs at hydropower plants Strengthen flood control dykes; shift to non-structural Expand health surveillance Resettle population and agriculture from drought stricken areas Expand programs for biodiversity protection beyond park boundaries Expo Zaragoza
25 World Bank Interest SE Europe Knowledge Products Pilot assessments of impacts & adaptation Example Investment Projects Energy community of SE Europe Irrigation and drainage rehabilitation Renewable energy Trade and transport Integrated ecosystem management Watershed management HydroMet service improvements Regional disaster risk management Expo Zaragoza
26 Strategic Framework for Climate Change and Development Integrate climate in development strategies Innovative and concessional finance New market mechanisms Private sector resources Technology development and deployment Research, knowledge and capacity Expo Zaragoza
27 Partnerships Government Civil Society Business & Industry Academia & Experts International Organizations Countries - Spain Expo Zaragoza
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