Recent IJC Use of Global Climate Models for the Great Lakes-St-Lawrence River Basin

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1 Recent IJC Use of Global Climate Models for the Great Lakes-St-Lawrence River Basin Tom McAuley International Joint Commission Canadian Section Ottawa, ON Lake Erie Millennium Binational Conference February 28 March 2, 2006 Windsor, Ontario International Joint Commission United States and Canada

2 The IJC and Water - Current Activities Future of water? - climate change always needs to be considered IJC Transboundary Watersheds

3 Background Climate Change Studies for the IJC s Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Study and Joint funded Canada and U.S. Hydrology and Hydraulics Group (1 of 9 TWGs) responsible for Climate Change Scenarios

4 Basin Geography Approx. GCM Quadrangle Ottawa River Basin Moses-Saunders Dam Great Lakes Basin LOSL Study Area

5 Hydrology and Hydraulics Group Climate Change Work GCM Scenarios Linda Mortsch, Joan Klassen & Marianne Alden Dr. Elaine Barrow Downscaling and Hydrologic Modeling Dr. Tom Croley II, NOAA, GLERL Hydro Quebec & Min. Env. Quebec (Ottawa River Basin) David Fay, EC

6 Method GCMs and Emissions Scenarios Examination of Recent Great Lakes Scenarios 34 runs from 9 GCMs CCSR-98 (Japan): IS92a, GG, GA CGCM1 (Canada): IS92a, GG, GA (3) CSIROMk2b (Australia): IS92a, GG, GA ECHAM4 (Germany): IS92a, GG, GA GFDLR-15 (USA): IS92a, GG, GA HadCM2 (UK): IS92a, GG (4), GA (4) NCAR (USA): IS92a, GA CGCM2 (Canada): IS92a, GA (3), A2 (3), B2 (3) HadCM3 (UK): IS92a, GG, GA, A2, B2

7 April 2002 Ottawa CC Workshop decision to use: 2050s ( ) vs. base period ( ) GHG with aerosol (GA) experiments SRES* Emissions Scenarios GCMs with: adequate resolution 5 necessary variables for hydrologic modeling temperature: min., mean, max. precipitation solar radiation or cloud humidity - specific, relative or vapour pressure wind speed Downscaling based on GCM grid interpolation * Special Report on Emission Scenarios, 2000, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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9 Mean Precipitation Mean Change Change (%) (%) Scatter Plot of Great Lakes Basin Areal Averaged Changes in Temperatures & Precipitation in 2050s Precip: Increases in annual Mortsch, (1.4 Alden, 12.5%), Klaassen most (2004) of seasonal values Greatest increases in winter and spring (up to 21.5%) Temp: All warming ( C) 15 Greatest increases in winter, except summer HadCM3 A1FI GCM GHG Emission Scenario(s) Mean Temperature Change ( o C) Mean Temperature Change ( C) CGCM2 A21 CGCM2 A22 CGCM2 A23 CGCM2 A2X CGCM2 B21 CGCM2 B22 CGCM2 B23 CGCM B2X CCSR A11 CCSR A1Fl CCSR A1T CCSR A21 CCSR B11 CCSR B21 ECHAM4 A21 ECHAM4 B21 HadCM3 A1Fl HadCM3 A21 HadCM3 A22 HadCM3 A23 HadCM3 A2X HadCM3 B11 HadCM3 B21 HadCM3 B22 NCAR-PCM A21 NCAR-PCM B21 GFDL-R30 A21 GFDL-R30 B21 *CGCM1 gax *HadCM2 gax * Included for comparison only. Based on IS92a emission scenarios and a 20-year average.

10 Choosing Scenarios for Downscaling & Modeling CCSR resolution too course NCAR - hydrologic modeling variable missing Box for Modeling: Warm and Wet: Warm and Dry: Not so Warm and Wet: Not so Warm and Dry: HadCM3 A1FI CGCM2 A21 HadCM3 B22 CGCM2 B23

11 Mean Precipitation Mean Change Change (%) (%) Scatter Plot of Great Lakes Basin Areal Averaged Changes in Temperatures & Precipitation in 2050s HadCM2 IS92a NCAR PCM A21,B21 Mortsch, Alden, Klaassen (2004) Graphic and Comments - McAuley HadCM3 B22 HadCM3 A1FI CGCM2 B23 CGCM2 A Mean Temperature Change ( o C) ECHAM4 A21,B21 Mean Temperature Change ( C) CCSR Ax,Bx CGCM2 A21 CGCM2 A22 CGCM2 A23 CGCM2 A2X CGCM2 B21 CGCM2 B22 CGCM2 B23 CGCM B2X CCSR A11 CCSR A1Fl CCSR A1T CCSR A21 CCSR B11 CCSR B21 ECHAM4 A21 ECHAM4 B21 HadCM3 A1Fl HadCM3 A21 HadCM3 A22 HadCM3 A23 HadCM3 A2X HadCM3 B11 HadCM3 B21 HadCM3 B22 NCAR-PCM A21 NCAR-PCM B21 GFDL-R30 A21 GFDL-R30 B21 *CGCM1 gax *HadCM2 gax * Included for comparison only. Based on IS92a emission scenarios and a 20-year average.

12 Great Lakes Scenarios 2050s Air Temp Daily Average

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14 Great Lakes Levels Water Levels Scenarios 2050s Water level would fall (from the base case): Lake Superior: Lakes Michigan-Huron: Lake St. Clair: Lake Erie: cm cm cm cm

15 Erie Level Water Comparison Levels for Different Climate Change Cases Lake Erie Level Scenarios and Base Case Level (m, IGLD 1985) Year Base Case Warm/Dry Not-as-Warm/Dry Warm/Wet Not-as-Warm/Wet

16 Lake Erie Basin Increases in: Air Temperature deg.c Overland Evapo-trans. 8% - 22% Lake Evaporation 13% - 27%

17 Water Temperature* Increases 2.1 to 3.3 deg.c Ice Coverage Decreases 53% to 86% * surface temperature

18 Questions? ijc.org International Joint Commission United States and Canada