Unconventional Resources Technology Creating Opportunities and Challenges. Alberta Government Workshop

Transcription

1 Unconventional Resources Technology Creating Opportunities and Challenges Alberta Government Workshop

2 Alberta Government Technology Workshop Welcome The goal of this workshop is to provide an overview of key exploration and development technologies that have enabled the development of the unconventional resource potential in Alberta. In the last decade, E&P companies have recognized the unconventional resource potential including shale gas, tight gas, natural gas from coal and tight oil. The development and deployment of key technologies such as horizontal drilling, multi-stage fracturing and more recently fracture modeling and visualization have enabled an unparalleled growth of energy supply as these resources are developed. Understanding the various aspects of unconventional resources including geological setting, technologies, challenges and opportunities will form a foundation upon which analogues and opportunities in Mexico can be identified and a strong E&P strategy can be created

3 Canadian Society for Unconventional Resources CSUR is a not for profit industry association, formed in 2002, to support the responsible exploration and development of unconventional resources in Canada Mission To facilitate the factual and collaborative exchange of knowledge and challenges of unconventional resources among government, regulators, industry and public stakeholders for the exploration and production of the resource in an environmentally sensitive and economical manner

4 Canadian Society for Unconventional Resources Advisory Forward-Looking Information This presentation may contain information that constitutes forward-looking information or forward-looking statements (collectively forward-looking information ) provided by the association relating to the exploration and development of unconventional hydrocarbon resources in Canada, North America and possibly worldwide. The opinions expressed by the presenter should not necessarily be considered to be those of the association or its board of directors. Forward-looking information is based on current expectations, estimates and projections that involve a number of risks which could cause actual results to vary and in some instances to differ materially from those anticipated by the unconventional resource industry. The material risk factors include, but are not limited to: the risks of the oil and gas industry, such as operational risks in exploring for, developing and producing crude oil and natural gas, market demand; risks and uncertainties involving geology of oil and gas deposits; uncertainty related to securing sufficient egress and markets to meet hydrocarbon production; the uncertainty of reserves and resources estimates, reserves life and underlying reservoir risk; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to production, costs and expenses; potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures by individual companies; fluctuations in oil and gas prices, health, safety and environmental risks; changes in general economic and business conditions and the possibility that government policies or laws may change or governmental approvals may be delayed or withheld. The foregoing list of risk factors is not exhaustive.

5 Short Course Outline Introduction Module 1 (0.5 hour) What are Unconventional Resources? Module 2 (0.5 hour) Drilling and Completion Technologies Module 3 ( 0.5 hour) North American Natural Gas Market and its Impact on Western Canada Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Module 4 The Shift to Tight Oil ( 0.5 hour) Questions and Discussion

6 Module 1 What Are Unconventional Resources Alberta Government Workshop

7 Outline Module 1 What are Unconventional Resources? Main Types of Unconventional Resources Differences between Unconventional and Conventional Reservoirs Trapping Mechanisms for Gas Storage Exploration and Development Strategies for Unconventional Gas Risk Profile What Risks Do Exploration Companies Face Resources versus Reserves

8 Outline - Module 1 Reservoir Porosity Permeability Resources Reserves Source Rock Glossary of Terms The rock that contains potentially economic amounts of natural gas The free space within the fine grained rock that can store natural gas The ability of the rock to pass fluids or gas through it. The higher the permeability number, the greater ease in which the fluid or gas that can flow through the rock over a fixed time period The amount of gas or oil that is thought to lie within a reservoir (lower degree of confidence) but does not account for how much is actually recoverable The amount of gas or oil that is actually proven to be recoverable from a reservoir (high degree of confidence) The rock material which contains organic material from which the natural gas is formed. In the case of shale gas and coal, the reservoir is also the source rock. In tight gas reservoirs, natural gas or oil is sourced elsewhere and migrated to the reservoir rock

9 What is an Unconventional Reservoir? CSUR Definition Unconventional Resources are very simply oil or gas that is produced from what industry would call Unconventional Reservoirs Often these reservoirs are of a lower quality and require enhanced technology types of completions to yield commercially successful wells Over time the technology to produce from these reservoirs will become mainstream and may not be considered unconventional Resource play types of exploration and development projects are usually successful through lower cost operational efficiency and economy of scale type operations Oil or gas reservoir is usually distributed over a large geographic area and will host local regions of improved productivity (sweet spots)

10 What are Unconventional Resources? Natural Resources Triangle Larger Reservoirs More Difficult to Develop Smaller Reservoirs Easier to Develop 1000 md High Quality 100 md Gas Shales Tight Gas Tight Oil Medium Quality Lower Quality Coalbed Methane 1 md 0.1 md Gas Hydrates md Increased Cost to Develop md Increased Technology Requirements modified from Schmezl, 2009

11 Differences Between Conventional and Unconventional Reservoirs Conventional Reservoirs Storage tank Gas or Oil is generated elsewhere (source rock) and then migrates to the potential reservoir Need a trap for the gas or oil accumulation: structural, stratigraphic Usually constrained geographically by trap boundaries Unconventional Reservoirs Can be both source and reservoir as in the case of shale gas or CBM Gas or oil is generated in situ, (some migration) Do not necessarily need a trap but generally need a seal Gas and oil is held in reservoir by either pressure or low permeability Usually laterally pervasive with local sweet spots

12 Differences Between Conventional and Unconventional Reservoirs Conventional vs Continuous or Unconventional Type Accumulations from Midnight Oil and Gas, 2009

13 Unconventional Resource Risk Profiles Conventional Reservoirs Unconventional Reservoirs Engineering Geoscience Geoscience Engineering Much of the risk is concentrated in the front end geoscience exploration and the ability to locate natural gas or oil reservoirs of economic size Risk is concentrated in the ability to produce economic volumes from laterally pervasive deposits of natural gas and oil where the risk of finding hydrocarbons is low

14 Types of Unconventional Reservoirs Tight Gas and Oil Sands and Carbonates Natural gas or oil has migrated into the microporosity of the rock matrix Commonly found in basin centered gas deposits Natural Gas from Coal (Coalbed Methane) Host rock is both source and reservoir for natural gas Reservoir rock is highly compressible and subject to changes in permeability Shale Gas Very high natural gas resource base per volume of reservoir rock due to high micro-porosity Requires extensive fracture stimulation

15 Types of Unconventional Reservoirs Unconventional Reservoirs Tight Gas or Oil Sandstone Conventional Reservoirs Conventional Oil or Gas Reservoirs Shale Tight Oil in Limestone Natural Gas from Coal Extremely Tight Very Tight Tight Low Moderate High Permeability (md) Poor Quality of Reservoir Good Granite Sidewalk Cement Volcanic Pumice Note: Natural Gas from Coal reservoirs are classified as unconventional due to type of gas storage modified from US DOE

16 Types of Unconventional Gas Reservoirs Unconventional Reservoir Continuum Conventional Gas Reservoirs Tight Gas and Oil Reservoirs Hybrid Reservoirs Shale Gas Shale Oil Coalbed Methane Reservoirs The shift from conventional to unconventional reservoirs reflects a change in grain size from higher permeability, coarser grained rocks towards very fine grained rocks with low permeability Reservoir variability both vertical and geographically can lead to the development of sweet spots of higher permeability in the finer grained reservoir rocks Core photos courtesy of Canadian Discovery

17 Types of Unconventional Gas Reservoirs Organic-rich Black Shale High TOC & high adsorbed gas Low matrix Sw High matrix Sg Gas or Oil stored as free & adsorbed Silt - Laminated Shale or Hybrid Gas or Oil stored in shale and silt Low to moderate TOC Higher permeabilities in silty layers Highly Fractured Shale Low TOC & low adsorbed gas High matrix Sw Low matrix Sg Gas stored in fractures Shale is the source rock Mature Source Rock From Hall, 2008

18 Key Aspects of Unconventional Resource Play Development Two Major Resource Play Types in Canada Deep HIGH RISK Shallow LOWER RISK Horizontal BIG PRIZE Co-Mingled SMALLER PRIZE High costs due to horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracing Well costs $6-10 MM High productivity wells with sharp decline rates Initial well production >2 MMcf/d High entry costs Lower costs due to depth and drilling and fracing equipment such as coiled tubing drilling and use of nitrogen with proppant fracing technology Well costs $250,000 to D&C and Stimulate Low productivity wells with flatter decline rates Economic wells due to co-mingled zones Initial Well production mcf/d Lower entry costs

19 Key Aspects of Unconventional Resource Play Development Each basin is unique requiring capital intensive exploration and experimentation to optimize productive sweet spots as well as stimulation and production methodologies Creates a two tier approach by industry players: Early Explorers - large capital expenditures required - advantage in land acquisition position and cost - higher risk due to uncertainty of the science - generally associated with resource play development Early Adopters - apply learnings of the early explorers to optimize capital costs and completion techniques - do not have the opportunity to acquire prime land position other than perhaps by serendipity - lower risk of technology but higher risk associated with resource base size Most shale and tight sandstone wells have very high decline rates need to plan for a large acreage position to allow for continued drilling to offset declines

20 Key Aspects of Resource Play Development UNCONVENTIONAL RESOURCE PLAY STRATEGY AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO WELL DESIGN Completion Strategy Reservoir Characterization Unlocking the Resource Play Wellbore Architecture from E. Schmelzel, 2008

21 Key Aspects of Resource Play Development The Key Questions Reservoir Characterization Reservoir modeling Sweet Spot identification Wellbore placement THE GOAL MAXIMIZED RESERVOIR EXPOSURE Wellbore completion from E. Schmelzel, 2008

22 Resources versus Reserves Primary goals of initial exploration programs for unconventional plays are: Define rock properties of the target zones to determine how much hydrocarbon may be present Define reservoir properties to guide in the development of the fracture stimulation program Undertake initial stimulation testing of primary zones to quantify initial productivity Conduct extended reservoir testing to determine decline rates and changes in reservoir pressure Reserves Resources Exploration Activities Initial Drilling OGIP Initial Well Testing IP Initial Well Stimulation and Testing Extended Well Testing Multiple Wells And Reproducibility Of Results P10 P50 P90 Probability of Success

23 Completion and Stimulation Techniques Horizontal Wellbore and Multi-Lateral Wellbore Completions Commonly multi-stage fracture stimulations are conducted to optimize the amount of fracture energy entering into the wellbore The horizontal leg is broken into stages where fracture stimulation for each stage is isolated from the rest of the wellbore Fracture design for each stage within the horizontal leg is dependent on borehole logging indicators of gas concentration as well as natural fracture density

24 How Do We Measure Success in Reservoir Stimulation Run horizontal well video

25 How Do We Measure Success in Reservoir Stimulation Run vertical stimulation video

26 Completion and Stimulation Techniques From Fairborne Energy, 2009

27 How Do We Measure Success in Reservoir Stimulation Micro-Seismic to Determine Effectiveness of Stimulation Measures micro seismic events related to the propagation of fractures within the reservoir Requires one or more observation wells to allow proper mapping of location geographically and vertically of microseismic events Can be run independently or as permanent seismic arrays in field to be developed Provides a 3D image of fracture propagation that can be measured in real time during the fracture stages Allows fracture propagation trends to be identified and adjusted for additional stages so fractures can be contained within zone Identifies areas of poor fracture generation or geological barriers to effective stimulation

28 How Do We Measure Success in Reservoir Stimulation Run microseismic video

29 How Do We Measure Success in Reservoir Stimulation Micro-seismic monitoring of fracture events for each staged stimulation allows the lateral and vertical envelope of the fracture stimulated rock to be determined Dots represent individual micro-seismic events that occur during the fracturing of the reservoir Track of the horizontal wellbore Courtesy of Nexen, 2011

30 Completion and Stimulation Techniques Multi-stage fracture stimulations are labor and equipment intensive that requires planning for wellsite activities as well as supply of frac materials (sand and water primarily) Multi-stage fracture stimulations are costly and should be undertaken only after reservoir properties have been tested from vertical wellbores and core data Courtesy Fairborne Energy, 2009 Courtesy Fairborne Energy, 2009

31 Manufacturing Style Ideology In order to be economically successful most unconventional resource play projects require the adoption of a manufacturing style of operations. This is to ensure that the project achieves: Optimization of Reservoir Production Employs Economies of Scale and Economic Benefits Continuous Improvement of Productivity while at the same time reduction in production costs Sufficient land base to support ongoing drilling and development plans that account for steep decline of initial production rates Service sector alliances that will allow continuous operations and economies of scale

32 Optimization of Reservoir Production Understanding the Reservoir is Key to Optimizing Production and Reserve Recovery This is achieved through continuous improvements and experimentation in drilling, completion and production techniques From Southwestern Energy, 2009

33 Optimization of Reservoir Production Resource play development is a statistical play Recognition that within the oil or gas field there are going to be both high volume and low volume producers Rely on statistical average to achieve project economic return on investment Understanding reservoir properties will decrease the risk of completing low volume producing wells From Southwestern Energy, 2009

34 Key Aspects of Unconventional Play Development Unconventional Resource Play Strategy is Critical to Success Understanding the Play Reservoir Characterization Resource Assessment Formation Properties & Analogs Address The Resource Play Challenges Which technologies, services or products are most appropriate Operational Risk / Cost Assessment Field Trials / Pilot Build in Efficiency Scale of operations is usually large Remote areas may add significant cost Bundling of Services, Concurrent / Continuous Operations

35 Stages of Exploration and Development Stage 1: Identification of UCG Resource Stage 2: Early Evaluation Drilling Time (years) Preliminary geological assessment to determine potential for hydrocarbons Stage 3: Pilot Project Drilling Pace of development is largely dependent on technical success and market conditions Exploration Tasks Vertical drilling to obtain core samples for reservoir properties along with estimation of resource potential and geographic limits of potential field Early horizontal drilling to evaluate well performance with varying hydraulic fracturing technologies along with continued reservoir testing to determine engineering properties Stage 4: Pilot Production Testing Advanced hydraulic fracturing testing and improvements of productivity with reduced expenditure Stage 5: Commercial Development Project Reclamation

36 Economies of Scale and Economic Benefits Resource Play Success is achieved through the adoption of a Manufacturing Style approach to commercial development Cost savings can be realized through a number of business models that achieve economies of scale, bundling of services, continuous operations, service sector alliances and in some case vertical integration Fracture stimulation costs now account for more than half of the total well costs from E. Schmelzel, 2008

37 Economies of Scale and Economic Benefits Key Elements of Manufacturing Ideology Minimize completion time Mitigate operational risk Define synergies and economies of scale Maximize EUR - completion methods which are adaptable to future recompletion capabilities reserves Minimize Logistics Costs: Re-using water from flowback and production, innovative fluid handling & storage Minimize Surface Impact & Costs: Pad drilling and completions, multi-lateral capability

38 Module 21 Drilling What Are andunconventional Completion Technologies Resources Alberta Government Workshop

39 Outline Module 2 Accessing the Reservoir - Why and How Drilling and Completion Technologies Coiled Tubing Drilling Horizontal Drilling Multi-Lateral Drilling Completion and Stimulation Techniques Vertical Fracture Stimulations and Co-Mingling Multi-Stage Fracture Stimulation Techniques Micro-Seismic Monitoring to Determine Effectiveness of Stimulation Gas Factory Ideology Optimization of Reservoir Production Key Aspects of Unconventional Gas Development Stages of Exploration and Development Economies of Scale and Economic Benefits

40 Outline Module 2 EUR OGIP IP Hydraulic Fracturing Multi-Stage Fracturing Microseismic Glossary of Terms Estimated Ultimate Recoverable reserves from a well Original Gas in Place before production (usually quoted in billions or trillions of cubic feet) Initial production rate of a gas well often much higher than the sustained production rate usually quoted as millions or thousands of cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d or mcf/d) Commonly referred to as fracing, this is the process where the reservoir rock is cracked using pressure and fluids to create a series of fractures in the rock through which the natural gas will flow to the wellbore The process of undertaking multiple fracture stimulations in the reservoir section where selected parts of the reservoir are isolated and fractured separately The methods by which fracturing of the reservoir can be observed by geophysical methods to determine where the fractures occurred within the reservoir

41 Accessing the Reservoir The fundamental purpose of drilling a oil or gas wellbore is to intersect the maximum amount of pay zone within the reservoir and optimize the productivity from the wellbore In unconventional reservoirs the ability of the hydrocarbons to flow to the well is hindered due to lower permeability To counter this lower productivity, drilling and stimulation techniques are used to maximize the amount of the reservoir exposed to the wellbore Techniques include: Vertical well multi-zone stimulation Horizontal wells Multistage fracturing Essentially all unconventional gas reservoirs require some form of improved access either through drilling or hydraulic fracturing

42 Drilling and Completion Technologies Different types of drilling equipment and methodology are available dependent on reservoir depth, thickness and expected flow properties Some choices include: Coiled Tubing Drilling and multi-zone completions Horizontal Drilling with mono reservoir completion Multi-Lateral Drilling with multiple completions

43 Drilling and Completion Technologies Drilling Efficiencies and Savings have been achieved through: Speed of drilling using new bit technology (PDC bits achieve penetration rates of up to 80 m/hr) Multiple drill string assemblies that reduce tripping time Geosteering in real time in horizontal and multilateral wells Automation of rig floor equipment eliminating additional manpower Fit for purpose rigs that can move on site without teardown Eg. Range Resources operates two fit for purpose drilling rigs that can move to the next well location on a common pad with over 3000 m of drill pipe stacked on the derrick rig move reduced from days to hours From Range Resources, 2010

44 Drilling and Completion Technologies Geosteering of horizontal wells in real time allows optimal reservoir penetration Multiple well orientations either vertical or horizontal from single surface well pads minimizes footprint courtesy Halliburton

45 Drilling and Completion Technologies Drilling of horizontal wells with the horizontal legs being up to 3500 m in length Multi stage fracture stimulations using slick water and sand to essentially create reservoir in rock that would not have been considered reservoir quality previously Zonal isolation packer systems in horizontal and multi-lateral wells allow for selective stimulation as well as production courtesy Halliburton

46 Drilling and Completion Technologies Horizontal Drilling/ Multi-Lateral Drilling Side Laterals Main Lateral The Pinnate Drainage Pattern

47 Completion and Stimulation Techniques Fracture stimulations are required for most unconventional resource plays due to low permeabilities of the reservoirs Type of fracture stimulation used is defined by: Depth and number of reservoirs to be stimulated Reservoir quality Type of wellbore (vertical versus horizontal) Fluid sensitivity Geomechanical properties of the reservoir Availability of equipment and materials Economic assessment of wellbore deliverability

48 Completion and Stimulation Techniques Fracture Stimulation Parameters The main purpose of fracture stimulation is to create open pathways for fluid flow within the reservoir either by creation of fractures or intersection of existing fracture systems Ideally the reservoir rock should be brittle so that it fractures easily Mineral content of the shale component will determine fracability of reservoir ideally a silica rich shale is preferred Sheared and slickensided fractures Open vertical fractures From Hall, 2008

49 Completion and Stimulation Techniques Typical coil tubing unit used for multizone fracture stimulation Completion techniques as well as size and amount of equipment will be dependent on the depth of the reservoir, size of fracture stimulation and number of fracs designed for the well Courtesy of Halliburton, 2009

50 Module 13 Unconventional What Are Unconventional Resource Development Resources and Risk Alberta Government Workshop

51 Outline Module 3 Risk variables that may impact success Well productivity and decline rates Reservoir heterogeneity Achievement of Economies of Scale Role of government and regulatory framework Attraction of Foreign investment and Technology

52 Outline Module 3 Glossary of Terms OGIP Marketable Resources IP F&D Costs Royalties Original Gas in Place before production (usually quoted in billions or trillions of cubic feet) The estimated amount of natural gas that can be recovered from the OGIP values using existing technology Initial production rate of an oil or gas well often much higher than the sustained production rate usually quoted as millions or thousands of cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d or mcf/d) or BOE/day The finding and development costs that a company spends to develop the oil or natural gas well or field The amount of $$ that companies pay to the owner of the oil and gas resources (usually the government)

53 Unconventional Resource Development and Risk

54 Unconventional Resource Development and Risk

55 Unconventional Resource Development and Risk Current Dry Production Levels Pushing All Time Highs Hurricanes Gustav and Ike Hurricane Katrina Emergence of Giant Shale Plays Barnett Woodford Fayetteville Haynesville Marcellus Eagle Ford Advanced Drilling and Well Completion Technology Horizontal Well Drilling Higher Prices Source: BENTEK Pipeline Flow Data From --- Daily Supply and Demand Report

56 Unconventional Resource Development and Risk Major pipeline corridors in United States are being built to eliminate local bottlenecking in delivery of natural gas to the northeast market ANTRIM MARCELLUS NEW ALBANY BARNETT WOODFORD HAYNESVILLE FAYETTEVILLE

57 Impact of Oversupply of Natural Gas in the North American Modified from Government of Nebraska website, 2011

58 Projected Supplies of Natural Gas in United States Trillion cubic feet/year modified from EIA, 2012

59 Unconventional Resource Development and Risk Unconventional resources, particularly natural gas developments are capital intensive with return on investment over a much longer time frame Hydraulic fracturing now account for as much as 60% of total well costs The science part of the exploration projects can take as much as 2 to 3 years prior to commercial development decisions being made and can lead to many millions of $$ of sunk costs with little or no revenue generated Companies that are active in resource play development must have access to long term capital in the hundreds of million of $$ to be able to develop the project and realize a return on investment

60 Life Cycle of an Unconventional Natural Gas Resource Development The slower rate at which the EUR is captured in unconventional reservoirs extends the economic break- even point, but the long-term ultimate recovery due to the size of the OGIP remains attractive compared to conventional reservoirs To achieve economic production of unconventional resources you need: high commodity prices; preferably existing infrastructure, new and existing technologies, availability of equipment and materials in sufficient quantity; and a competitive / incented environment in which to work < $ million annual cash flow > Investor Cash Flow Tax Paid Production Cumulative Cash Flow Operating Expenditure 0 Capital Expenditure Each bar = 1 year From Shell E&P Technology, 2009

61 Unconventional Resource Development and Risk The Treadmill of Unconventional Resource Development Shale gas and tight gas reservoirs typically have steep decline curves in the early months of production In order for companies to grow and maintain production volumes they must continue to drill to offset the declines in single well production rates Successful resource play companies will have large land holdings with an inventory of well locations from Encana, 2011

62 Unconventional Resource Development and Risk Resource play development is statistical in terms of productivity The reservoirs will tend to be heterogenetic with variable production rates and EUR Within the laterally pervasive large reservoir area, there will be areas of enhanced production (sweet spots) that will balance the areas of lower productivity In order to achieve the statistical balance for economic success, the projects must be able to have multiple wells drilled hence the requirement for large tracts of oil and gas tenure held by individual companies

63 Unconventional Resource Development and Risk Challenge: Improve overall productivity and/or economics for the entire play not just the sweet spot high productivity areas Recognition that within the gas field there are going to be both high volume and low volume producers - Barnett shale completions Rely on statistical average to achieve project economic return on investment Understanding reservoir properties will decrease the risk of completing low volume producing wells Improved productivity will allow marginal wells to achieve economic thresholds Modified from Southwestern Energy, 2009

64 Unconventional Resource Development and Risk Well Cost Evolution ($C) Production Evolution Deep Basin (vertical wells) Montney - Per Interval $MM $MM/Frac Horn River MMcfe/d F NGC Well costs $MM F F Horn River Per Interval $MM/Frac F F Montney MMcfe/d * F Modified from Encana, 2010

65 Unconventional Resource Development and Risk Role of Government and Regulatory Framework Government must establish a regulatory framework that recognizes the exploration risk and the time to develop unconventional resource projects Royalty structure must recognize the extensive front end capital costs relative to the return of capital over the time frame of the entire project The application of technology will be critical to the success of unconventional resource development and government must ensure that these technologies can be deployed easily There may be a requirement for incentives to attract investment into new emerging play regions such as royalty holidays or tax credits

66 Unconventional Resource Development and Risk Attraction of Foreign Capital Large exploration companies will look at new exploration plays from a perspective of a global hydrocarbon portfolio they have choices as to where they will invest their capital Operatorship is a critical aspect of any new venture, particularly in regions where NOC s are involved Production sharing agreements require an understanding of the risk/reward that the projects encompass Foreign investment will also be highly dependent on other variables beyond the resource play opportunity such as: Availability of equipment, materials and manpower Local stakeholder relations Infrastructure and transportation costs/burdens Government and regulatory stability (looking for established regulatory environment where the investing companies understand all of the rule sna regulations prior to investing

67 Emerging Opportunities for Unconventional Resources in Mexico There are a number of unconventional resource basins in Mexico that have significant potential but require: Grass roots exploration to identify the scale of the opportunities and at the same time some element of risk reduction to attract foreign investment Foreign Investment to provide the capital necessary for development Government incentives/encouragement for foreign investment into the new opportunities Strong commitment by Mexico for the attraction and deployment of technology

68 Emerging Opportunities for Unconventional Resources in Mexico

69 Emerging Opportunities for Unconventional Resources in Mexico

70 Emerging Opportunities for Unconventional Resources in Mexico

71 Summary and Conclusions Unconventional resource development is a technology play The application of horizontal drilling coupled with multi-stage hydraulic fracture stimulation has been the technological breakthrough that has unlocked most resource play opportunities Resource play development is capital intensive with return on investment spread out over a longer time period that perhaps conventional resource targets Longer investment time but the prize is bigger Large amounts of capital suggest that only the larger oil and gas companies have the financial capability to develop unconventional resource fields with any high potential for economic success Attraction of foreign capital may be critical for the successful development of the unconventional resource potential in Mexico

72 Module 4 Tight Oil Unconventional But Different Alberta Government Workshop

73 Tight Oil Opportunities and Challenges What is Tight Oil? The Shift to Tight Oil Economic Balance Relationship and Sensitivity to World Oil Prices Critical Elements for Success Emerging Opportunities in Southern Alberta What does it mean to the business owner and stakeholder? January 27, 2012

74 Tight Oil Opportunities and Challenges Unconventional Reservoirs Conventional Reservoirs Tight Oil in Sandstone Conventional Sandstone Oil Reservoirs Shale Oil Oil in Limestone Conventional Limestone Oil Reservoirs Extremely Tight Very Tight Tight Low Moderate High Permeability (md) Poor Quality of Reservoir Good Granite Sidewalk Cement Volcanic Pumice modified from US DOE January 27, 2012

75 Tight Oil Opportunities and Challenges Modified from Canadian Discovery, 2011 and EOG Investor Presentation January 27, 2012

76 What is Driving the Industry Towards Tight Oil Strong Commodity Prices Creates Foundation for Technology Development and Deployment into Unconventional Gas Resource Plays Higher Demand Cycle Supply Glut - Lower Demand Cycle Modified from Government of Nebraska website, 2011 January 27, 2012

77 Tight Oil Opportunities and Challenges Modified from Macquarie Research, 2010 January 27, 2012

78 Tight Oil Opportunities and Challenges Technological Development Driven by Price $5 - $20 / bb/vertical wells Reservoir Quality Higher Quality Reservoirs Discreet Pool Size $20 - $60 / bbl Vertical wells with Fracture Stimulation $20 - $60 / bbl Horizontal wells $60 - $120 / bbl Horizontal wells with Staged Fracture Stimulation $120 / bbl+ Vertical Vertical with Frac Horizontal Key technologies of horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracturing Horizontal with Multi-Stage Frac Low Quality Reservoir Larger Geographic Distribution of Resources modified from Penn West, 2011 January 27, 2012

79 Tight Oil Opportunities and Challenges Modified from Macquarie Research, 2010 January 27, 2012

80 Tight Oil Opportunities and Challenges Drilling for Tight Oil is not a License to Print Money Challenges still exist and not all regions within a resource play are going to achieve economic success Current oil prices are driving the exploration activity but a sustained high price deck will be necessary for ongoing development Significant growth of tight oil opportunities in United States may create a number of issues: Pipeline infrastructure may create backlog for oil transport, particularly if the Niobrara potential continues to grow Downward pressure on West Texas pricing due to oversupply in Cushing Availability of equipment and materials for fracture stimulations Continued downward pressure on natural gas prices due to additional gas production from oil or liquids rich resource plays January 27, 2012

81 Tight Oil Opportunities and Challenges Critical Elements for Success Most tight oil prospects that are current exploration and development targets are in existing or the margins of field that have a large volume of oil still within the reservoir Economics of development need to take into account full cycle including land costs Evolving technology towards lower cost stimulations rather than more expensive frac fluids such as oil Need to be very aware of fracture propagation trends to ensure staying within zone and optimal reservoir stimulation Decline rates tend to be steep and the EUR for each well requires careful analysis based upon actual observed recovery factors January 27, 2012

82 Tight Oil Opportunities and Challenges from Petrobakken 2011 January 27, 2012

83 Tight Oil Opportunities in Southern Alberta The New Alberta Bakken Play The industry shift to more oilier prospects and the application of technology has created a new opportunity for hydrocarbon exploration in Southern Alberta Alberta Bakken This resource play consists of a number of tight hydrocarbon targets that contain light tight oil with minor gas accumulations Companies are looking to extend the prolific Bakken play in southern Saskatchewan into Alberta and Montana into a roughly north northwest trending play that extends from south of Vulcan down into into northern Montana The Alberta Bakken play is about 300 km long by about 80 km wide bounded on the west by subsurface faulting associated with the Rocky Mountains and to the east by a geological pressure boundary January 27, 2012

84 Tight Oil Opportunities and Challenges The Alberta Bakken play consists of a number of oil bearing zones in the subsurface that are bounding the Exshaw Fm (Bakken equivalent in Sask) which is the source rock for the oil and gas Source BMO Capital Markets technical report, April, 2011 January 27, 2012

85 Tight Oil Opportunities and Challenges Companies have spent over $520 MM in the past 3-4 years establishing a land position both in Southern Alberta and Montana More than 60 wells have been drilled or licensed in this area with an estimated expenditure of over $250 MM A strong financial commitment by industry to conduct exploration Expect to see continued exploration and development where understanding the reservoir(s) will be critical in the early stages and then will potentially lead to commercial development Source BMO Capital Markets technical report, April, 2011 January 27, 2012

86 Tight Oil Opportunities and Challenges Early exploration tests designed to determine wellbore productivity and pressure responses Pace of development will be controlled by the results of these early test wells Argosy W4 Activity and types of equipment on site will be dependent on the types and volumes of hydrocarbons that are being recovered this is controlled to a large extent by the reservoir properties Crescent Point W4 Source BMO Capital Markets technical report, April, 2011 January 27, 2012

87 Tight Oil Opportunities and Challenges Wellbore production tends to improve over time as technologies are adapted and modified to reflect better understanding of reservoir properties Modified from Bowood Energy Inc. Investor Presentation, 2011 January 27, 2012

88 The Final Comment So what have we learned this morning? One thing for sure --- INFORMATION OVERLOAD But here are some things to think about: Canada and Alberta has enough natural gas to supply our needs as well as our export levels for over 100 years This abundance of natural gas in North America will continue to keep prices at the lower level for the near future due to oversupply into the market Companies exploring and producing natural gas in Western Canada will need to become the low cost operator if they are to compete in the North American market January 27, 2012

89 The Final Comment Economies of scale, manufacturing ideology and partnerships will be critical to achieve this goal Development of unconventional resources is a technology play. Industry continues to make advances in technology development and deployment that allows improvement in productivity and EUR as well as opening up opportunities in new basins (ie. Alberta Bakken) Companies will continue to look towards more oily type plays where the return on investment is more attractive in the short term Early drilling results for the Alberta Bakken look promising but it is still in the early days and widespread commercial success has yet to be proven January 27, 2012

90 Thank You for your Attention Questions????? Alberta Government Workshop