The Battle of Modernities Perspectives on the Greening of European Electricity

Transcription

1 The Battle of Modernities Perspectives on the Greening of European Electricity Atle Midttun Presentation at the Salzburg Energy Seminar

2 The Battle of Modernities Carbon Based Promethean Modernity Nuclear Based Faustian Modernity Renewables Based Apolonian Modernity Combustion of carbon to power industrial modernity Limitless clean energy to take modernity beyond the carbon age Alternative post-carbon modernity based on renewables 2

3 The Problems of Modernities Carbon Based Promethean Modernity Nuclear Based Faustian Modernity Renewables Based Apollonian Modernity The problem of local pollution and global warming The risk of a nuclear cathastrophe and the fuel cycle The problem of intermittance instability and scalability 3

4 Status in Europe Strong pressure against carbon-modernity After Fukushima: Nuclear comeback halted Will eco-modernity based on renewables be the winner? We are seeing rapid scaling up of wind Can other renewables follow? Can we solve the intermittancy problem Will problems of eco-modernity rather be solved on the demand side? What are the costs? 4

5 Visions of a De-Carbonised Europe Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable World Energy Outlook Greenpeace Roadmap 2050 European Climate Foundation (ECF) Remix 100% renewable electricity is achievable by 2050, German Adv. Council for the Environment Vision of carbon free Swedish Economy 2050 Swedish Gvt. Vision 2050, WBCSD Carbon Neutral Norway by 2030 Norwegian Govt. (through quotas abroad) 5

6 The Challenge of Intermittent Power Much of the renewable power will be intermittent It will need complemetary storage and backup supplies Or it will need extensive interconnections to hydrosystems 6

7 The Nordic Dimension of German/ European Greening From REMIX Scenarios, Deutschen Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) 7

8 Opportunities or Hurdles for Nordic Markets! Winners and loosers Continental Nordic Supply industry?? Producers?? Consumers?? 8

9 9 From Point Carbon 2011

10 10 From Point Carbon 2011

11 Contradictions in Regulatory Design Grey electricity market regulated for European competition Green electricity market regulated by strong national design 11

12 Policy Alignment European/ Regional National volume Niche market policy Technology subsidy policy CompetitionPolicy, Access policy Monopoly regulation policy etc. Certificates? Auctions? Feed in R&D policy time 12

13 Policy Alignment Ëuropean? National? volume Technology subsidy policy R&D policy Niche market policy CompetitionPolicy, Access policy Monopoly regulation policy etc. Certificates? Auctions? Feed in time 13

14 A Relay Model of Transition Civic driven Policy driven industry driven 14

15 Relay Model in a Produc Cycle Perspective R 3 R 1 R 2 15

16 Source: IPCC

17 Source: IPCC

18 New Green players Grown to be one of Europe s largest suppliers of photovoltaic solutions Focuses exclusively on solar installations. Moved from smaller installations to larger farms 18

19 Variety Among Incumbents Higher efficiency and planting trees in national parks Clean coal with ccs Low carbon gas Nuclear Marginal renewables Exiting Carbon Will lead the transition to a greener future Leader in renewables Nuclear Revival 19

20 Industrial Crossover Paper and pulp industry into el- generation Construction industry into wind Engineering industry into green systems and renewable energy 20

21 Towards the demand side Smart grids and demand interfaces Passive houses and other demand side approaches 21

22 Succession of Modernities in a Product Cycle Perspective Carbon modernity Nuclear modernity??? Ecomodernity 19th-20th century late 20th century 21st century 22

23 Ecological Modernisation Under Different Scenarios How robust are the green committments under financial constraints from the eurocrisis and global crisis How dependent are the green committments on continnued innovation Comeback strategies for nuclear modernity Innovation could bring back carbon generation. 23

24 EU 27 The Catchup Agenda 24