Further research (Part II)

Transcription

1 Further research (Part II) Ingeborg Graabak and Daniel H. Hernando, SINTEF SINTEF Energy Research

2 Outline Background Existing relevant activities at SINTEF EU framework Nordic proposal (Nordic Energy Research) EU call Relevant models BALANCE proposal: KMB, EU FP7, Industrial Project..? SINTEF Energy Research 2

3 SINTEF Energy Research 3

4 ENTSO-E Main drivers (TYNDP) Massive integration of renewable energy sources in Northern Europe in Southern Europe. Wind/ North Sea Grid Sto Sto Sto Sto Hydro Sto Hydro Wind PV Hydro PV PV SINTEF Energy Research 4

5 ENTSO-E Main drivers (TYNDP) Massive integration of renewable energy sources in Northern Europe in Southern Europe. Hydro Wind Sto Wind Sto Sto Sto Hydro Sto Hydro Wind Hydro PV PV SINTEF Energy Research 5

6 Interconnected European power system by O. Oliven (1930) SINTEF Energy Research 6

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8 Models at SINTEF Energi AS SINTEF Energy Research 8

9 1. Models for Market studies SINTEF Energy Research 9

10 Balance Management: EMPS-IRiE model Stefan Jaehnert, PhD-NTNU SINTEF Energy Research 10

11 Balance Management: EMPS-IRiE model Stefan Jaehnert, PhD-NTNU - Power plant data - Transmission system data - Demand, Ex-&Import curves - Hydro inflow, wind speeds Reserve requirements: - Control area - Balancing area - System wide System imbalance: - Demand forecast error - Wind forecast error Day-ahead market - Generation dispatch - Water values - Area prices Reserve procurement - Generation redispatch - Water values - Area prices System balancing - Total production cost - Area prices - Optimal generation dispatch - Transmission dispatch - Reserve procurement cost - Availability of regulating reserves - System balancing cost - Regulating resource exchange EMPS IRiE SINTEF Energy Research 11

12 Top-down electricity market model European Multi-area Power market Simulator EMPS Current model: 54 areas in Europe 95 interconnections 15 offshore wind areas 75 years of wind, solar and hydro resources Start/stop and pumping handled SINTEF Energy Research 12

13 2. Models for Network studies SINTEF Energy Research 13

14 Balance Management: PSST-Real Time Dispatch Hossein Farahmand, PhD-NTNU SINTEF Energy Research

15 Balance Management: PSST-Real Time Dispatch Hossein Farahmand, PhD-NTNU Input data for scheduled dispatch Power flow case description Generator capacities Generator cost curves (marginal cost) Reservoir levels (Hydro) Reserve Requirements Time dependent Load series Wind series Inflow (hydro) Water values Input data for Real-time dispatch Real-time System Imbalance Demand forecast error Wind forecast error Common market (The whole European Continent) Scheduled dispatch Water Values System Balancing (Northern continental Europe) Results Production cost Optimal production dispatch Optimal HVDC lines flow Power Exchange between areas Results Balancing Cost Optimal dispatch of regulating objects Exchange of Balancing Services SINTEF Energy Research 15

16 Bottom up detailed grid analyses PSST, Samlast, Samnett Data Base UCTE + Nordel + GB + Ireland Simplified, transmission level 2222 lines (+56 HVDC) 1410 nodes 984 loads 540 generators (excl. wind) 152 wind farm clusters SINTEF Energy Research

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18 Interaction between EMPS and grid model Statistical data temperature inflow, wind, solar data Power plant data RES, fossil, nuclear, Price dependent and independent load Market model (EMPS, IRiE..) Spot market area prices Cost of congestion Emissions Distribution of generation load import/export Modified market solution restrictions on transmission losses Grid data Lines Cables Transformers Grid model (Samlast, Samnett, PSST..) Utilization of lines and cables Total and marginal losses SINTEF Energy Research

19 Objectives of the BALANCE project How much balancing flexibility can Norway offer to Europe without violating Nordic operating rules, security margins, and minimizing environmental impacts? At which cost? Sub-objectives Identify the present capabilities and future potential for balancing and exchange (short-term to long-term) Identify the present and future needs for balancing power in the European power system. How much will come from Norwegian hydro? How do these estimates depend on deployment of wind power (onshore and offshore) and other renewables? Analyze balancing operation for different scenarios defined in terms of different technical, economical, ecological and regulatory/policy indicators Assess consequences of changes in hydro reservoir handling Estimate investment and operational costs of grid, export capacities, generators and reservoirs through quantitative modeling SINTEF Energy Research 19

20 Work packages WP 2 Governance and regulatory frameworks WP 1 Assessment of current situation and identification of needs WP 3 Integrated infrastructure and market analysis WP 5 Strategies for Norwegian balancing services WP 6 Dissemination & Exploitation WP 4 Modeling and analysis of short-term operation Project management SINTEF Energy Research

21 Funding options Research Council of Norway Next call announced Spring 2011 Relatively large freedom in project design Requires industrial co-funding EU FP7 Collaborative project Next call announced Summer 2011 Have to meet specific call Need industrial co-funding Direct industry funded project No specific deadlines Full freedom in project design SINTEF Energy Research 21

22 Thank you! SINTEF Energy Research 22

23 Modeling structure Policy and regulatory framework Stage 1 Day-ahead market Energy balance, reservoirs, prices, reserve proc. Market Balance Hourly steps Day-ahead market Energy balance, reservoirs, prices, reserve proc. Market Balance Hourly steps Day-ahead market Energy balance, reservoirs, prices, reserve proc. Stage 2 Detailed grid model Detailed grid model Detailed grid model Stage 3 (Selected critical hours) Intra-day / Balancing market Forecast errors, deviations etc (wind, solar, load...) Stepwise Power Flow 5-10 min steps Intra-day / Balancing market Forecast errors, deviations etc (wind, solar, load...) SINTEF Energy Research 23