Development Scenarios for the Electricity Economy of Lithuania

Transcription

1 1 Development Scenarios for the Electricity Economy of Lithuania Udo Bachhiesl, Gerald Feichtinger, Heinz Stigler Institute of Electricity Economics and Energy Innovation Graz University of Technology u

2 2 Content General energy economic framework Simulation model ATLANTIS Lithuania and the Baltic states Scenario calculations Conclusions

3 3 General Energy Economic Framework Global 8 Millennium dev. goals Sustainable dev. goals 2030 Paris Climate Agreement 2016 European Union Energy strategic goals Energy targets 2020: 20/20/20 Energy targets 2030: 40/27/27 Energy roadmap until 2050: GHG reduction up to -95% Energy and climate related European guidelines National implementation of energy guidelines

4 4 Energy Political Frame for the Baltic Region Energy markets of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania still lack adequate electricity connections, both between themselves and to other parts of the EU Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan (BEMIP) forms part of the overall 'EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region' Projects of BEMIP part of European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP) Currently the EstLink 1 and 2 connections between Estonia and Finland, the LitPol Link connection between Lithuania and Poland and the NordBalt connection between Sweden and Lithuania have raised the interconnectivity of the Baltic States with the EU electricity market Nordic electricity market model (NORDEL) will be extended to the three Baltic States Lithuania closed its last nuclear reactor, which had been generating 70% of its electricity, at the end of 2009, due to EU pressure

5 5 Simulation model ATLANTIS 36 Countries 180 Companies Nodes Lines Powerplants

6 6 Simulation process in ATLANTIS database power plants, grid, load profile, companies, balance sheets, fuels system services, markets, availabilities, maintenance, simulation period 2006 to 2050 (max.) scenario definitions countries, fuel price development, demand development, inflation, economic growth, interest rates, CO certificates, projects... 2 system adequacy for annual peak load, (if necessary replacement of old capacities and optimized power plant placement) energy balance, dispatch, electricity exchange for the peak and off-peak periods of each month load flow and redispatch for the peak and off-peak periods of each month financial accounting and CO -emissions 2 annually for each company analysis of results and reporting graphical representations for each company and each market year system adequacy calculations p.a. >2160 load flow calculations 2160 power exchange 2160 Redispatch simulation time: 48 h produced data: 4 GB applied software packages ACCESS/VBA & MS SQL GAMS, MATLAB, EXCEL, ArcGIS, C#

7 7 Modelling of the Baltic states

8 8 Electricity Economy in Lithuania (1) Energy Strategy 2020 Integration European Energy Market Development of Energy Sources (RES) 3rd EU Energy package Further Liberalisation of E-Market Energy Efficiency Sources of Electricity Production Solar Waste Biomass Electricity Production/Consumption in GWh Other Gas Wind Shift from exporting to importing country Hydro

9 9 Development of installed power plant capacity in Lithuania in [MW] Installed Capacity Nuclear Renewables Hydro Wind Solar Other Thermal (total) CHP Coal Gas Oil Biomass Simulation horizon

10 10 The electricity system of Lithuania NordBalt Ignalina LitPol Level of interconnection: from 4% to 22%

11 11 Scenario calculations Simulation up to the year 2030 Investigated scenarios: Scenario 1: Consequences of closing of the nuclear power plant Ignalina Scenario 2: Connection of Baltic states to the European continental network and the Nordic states Scenario 3: Synchronisation with the electricity system of continental Europe and simultaneously de-synchronisation from IPS/UPS-system in 2025.

12 12 Scenario 1: Shut down of NPP Ignalina (1) before shut down after shut down

13 13 Scenario 1: Shut down of NPP Ignalina (2)

14 14 Scenario 2: Connection to ECN/NORDIC (1)

15 15 Scenario 2: Connection to ECN/NORDIC (2)

16 16 Scenario 3: Synchronisation with European Continental System (1)

17 17 Scenario 3: Synchronisation with European Continental System (2)

18 18 Summary and Conclusions Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan (BEMIP) Aim: open and integrated regional electricity market in Baltic sea region Implementation of 3rd energy package, infrastructure construction Action plan to 2020, TYNDP Synchronisation with continental European network 2025 Status Baltic states have substantially increased level of interconnection: 2* EstLink,, LitPol, NordBalt Positive impact on electricity prices and import dependency 2020 RES target already reached Outlook Synchronisation with continental system until 2025 Further simulations/investigations: NPP Visaginas, prices, capital stock..

19 19 Thanky you for your attention! Assoc.Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Dr.techn. Udo Bachhiesl Technische Universität Graz Institut für Elektrizitätswirtschaft und Energieinnovation Inffeldgasse Graz Tel.: Fax: Web: