LNG strategy and the outlook for global gas markets

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1 LNG strategy and the outlook for global gas markets October 16 th, 2012 Jean-Marie Dauger Executive Vice-president GDF SUEZ

2 The LNG market Strong growth particularly in Asia An LNG market of ~550 Mt in 2030 (vs. 220 Mt in 2010) Demand growth in Non-OECD Asia: +170 Mtpa by 2030 Including new usage such as small scale LNG Forecasted LNG demand growth by region Latin America Middle East Europe North America Non-OECD Asia OECD Asia CAGR Growth (Mtpa) +3.4% % % % % % +73 Source: Cedigaz, July A growing number of producing and importing countries between 2010 and Importing countries Producing countries Source : PFC, CERA, GDF SUEZ 2

3 Gas prices worldwide continue to diverge Source: PFC Energy Brent Japan LNG Price (WACOG) NBP?? Oil-linked LNG prices Henry Hub Gas on Gas market prices Shale gas revolution drove down Henry Hub prices Spread to Asian oil-linked reached 14 USD/MMBtu as of May LNG trade develops and new suppliers propose hub-based pricing (US East coast) while Asian buyers show signs of interest for this pricing. => Will oil-linkage remain the basic long-term contract pricing indexation? 3

4 Natural gas prices Will oil-linkage remain the basis of long term pricing in Asia? Favoring oil linkage Administered prices in most Asian markets Premium over security of supply issues Increasing cost of LNG projects Emerging LNG importers Favoring hub index North America LNG Exports Competition between LNG projects Asian hub development Unconventional gas in Asia 4

5 North American LNG export projects Facility Owner 1 Kenai ConocoPhillips Capacity mtpa 1.5 Export license FTA and non-fta licenses, or Canadian licenses Approved (FTA license) Applied Not applied Existing liquefaction Proposed brownfield liquefaction at existing regas terminal Proposed greenfield liquefaction terminal Sabine Pass (2016)* Cheniere Freeport (2017) Freeport LNG Cameron (2016) Sempra Lake Charles BG Group Cove Point (2016) Dominion Golden Pass Qatar Petroleum, ExxonMobil 19 8 Gulf LNG El Paso Elba Island El Paso MPEH Deepwater Port LNG Gulf Coast Michael Smith Corpus Christi (2017) Cheniere Lavaca Bay FLNG (2017) Excelerate Energy Jordan Cove (2017) Veresen Oregon LNG (2017) Oregon LNG 9.0 Cameron (4): Commercial development agreement 20-year liquefaction contract (4mtpa) Valdez LNG (2021) Alaska Gasline Port Authority 19.0 CE FLNG 8.0 Kitimat (2016) Apache, EnCana, EOG BC LNG (2014) BC LNG Source: Global Gas and LNG Strategy Division, Players, DOE and FERC reports *Announced start up date of T1 (when available) LNG Canada (2019) Shell, Kogas, PetroChina, Mitsubishi Petronas Canada (2018) Petronas

6 Competition between LNG projects Need for long-term commitment The development of natural gas resources via LNG will always require a high degree of long term contractual commitment. Security of supply is a key issue for buyers (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc.) Australia has set recent Asia long term LNG price, requiring oil-linked price. Other greenfield projects in East Africa, Russia or Canada are not significantly cheaper Oil-index is seen as more reliable than other reference 6

7 Global LNG outlook Rising demand for flexibility and short term trade in LNG The growth of spot LNG is a reality on a global scale Source: PFC Energy A portfolio approach is becoming a critical element of the LNG market for risk mitigation. A portfolio approach can provide bridging volumes between immediate needs and longerterm supplies. Long term commitments to ensure development of the LNG market Financial strength with risk management Large portfolio with global dimension Know-how to propose flexible services 7

8 GDF SUEZ in LNG A global leader Snøhvit LNG Isle of Grain Zeebrugge 17 LNG carriers (incl. 2 Shuttle & Regasification Vessels) Everett Montoir Fos Tonkin Fos Cavaou Sabine Pass Freeport Neptune US liq - Sempra (planned) Idku Dahej * Penuelas: access through long-term sales agreement Penuelas* Atlantic LNG NLNG Arzew Bethioua Skikda Yemen LNG Kochi Andhra Pradesh Mejillones Cameroon (planned) Bonaparte LNG (planned) LNG ACTIVITIES Existing equity in liquefaction plants Existing Regasification Terminal Regas with equity without capacity Long-term LNG supply Planned Liquefaction Under Construction Regasification Planned Regasification Regas capacity without equity Regas with capacity and equity

9 GDF SUEZ in LNG A global leader with one of the largest LT LNG portfolio 3 rd LNG supply portfolio in the world 1st LNG importer in the Atlantic Basin 1st LNG importer in Europe 2 nd largest operator of LNG terminals in Europe LNG long-term portfolio* Source: PFC * LT purchase contracts, excluding equity LNG, 2010 data 9

10 GDF SUEZ in LNG Integrated along the value chain 10

11 LNG strategy and the outlook for global gas markets October 16 th, 2012 Jean-Marie Dauger Executive Vice-president GDF SUEZ

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