Natural Gas. Dr. Fred Beach Energy Institute The University of Texas at Austin. Infrastructure as Momentum. Dr. Fred C. Beach.
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1 Infrastructure as Momentum Dr. Fred Beach Energy Institute The University of Texas at Austin 1
2 Fossil Fuels Supply 87% of All Energy Consumption in the World 2
3 Global Consumption Trends 2011 Energy Consumption, + 2.5% OEDC, Down Non-OEDC, Up Oil Consumption, + 0.7% OEDC, -1.2% Non-OEDC, +2.8% Consumption, +2.2% EU, -9.9% China, +21.5% Coal Consumption, +5.4% OEDC, -1.1% Non-OEDC, +8.4% 3
4 World s 10 Largest Energy Projects in $ s Rank Name Energy Country Cost ($ Billion) 10 Three Gorges Dam Hydro China $28 9 Gladstone (Santos, Petronas, Total) Gas Australia $30 8 Kearl (Imperial & Exxon Mobile) Oil Canada $33 7 Queensland Curtis (BP) Gas Australia $34 6 Wheatstone (Chevron, Apache, TEPCO, Kuwait Foreign Petroleum) Gas Australia $35 5 Australia Pacific (Origin, ConPhil, Sinopec) Gas Australia $37 4 Bovanenkovskoye (Gazprom) Gas Russia $41 3 Ichthys (Inpex & Total) Gas Australia $43 2 Gorgon (Chevron, Exxon & Shell) Gas Australia $57 1 Kashagan (KazMunayGas, ENI, Shell, Exxon, Total, ConPhil, INPEX) 4 Oil Kazakhstan $116
5 5
6 U.S. Production 6
7 U.S. Energy Independence Trend US for 2012 (Quads) Consumption = 95 Production = 80 Imports = 15.8% 2013 (to date) 12.9% 7
8 Physical Trends Have Momentum Houston el Rio San Antonio Eagle Pass Victoria Corpus Christi Laredo 8
9 Eagle Ford Oil, Gas, & Liquids Production 9
10 Texas Rig Count Feb
11 U.S. Energy Use 11
12 Demand Growth Potential 2012 US Consumption was 69.7 Bcf/day 12
13 U.S. Ground Transportation Fuel Market 13
14 Gas Cost Versus GGE Cost 14
15 Transportation 15
16 Transportation 16
17 The Honda Civic GX is the only LDV for Sale in the U.S. Cleaner air at tailpipe than coming in the vents Extensive residential fueling infrastructure fill up with home compressor (~$4000) 17 $25,190
18 Why Not NatGas PHEVs? There are 78 million single family homes in the US 99.99% have electricity service 50 million have natural gas service That is a lot of fueling stations..but NFPA is Working to Ban Home Refueling Through Building Code Restrictions 18
19 Power Generation Combined Cycle Plants Have High Efficiency 50%-60% versus ~30% National Power Plant Average 19
20 FUA (Nat Gas)
21 Generation Investment Mix Are We Building a Less Resilient Generation Portfolio? 21
22 Fuel Switching in Electricity Generation 22
23 Pipeline Network 23
24 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission LNG Market Oversight Overview: World LNG Prices World LNG Estimated May 2013 Landed Prices UK UK UK UK $8.75 $10.17 $8.75 Cove Point Cove Point $4.50 $4.16 $4.40 Spain Spain $9.05 Lake $9.15 Lake Charles $11.78 Altamira $3.96 $4.60 $3.79 $3.93 $4.42 $4.57 Altamira Belgium Belgium $8.84 $10.08 $8.99 India India $11.55 $14.40 $11.55 Korea $12.40 Korea $14.95 $13.10 China $14.55 Japan Japan $12.40 $14.95 $13.10 Rio de Janeiro $15.11 Bahia Blanca $16.41 Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtu 24 Updated April 24, 2013 July , 2013
25 Export Qmax LNG Tankers, 5.7 Bcf capacity (9.4 Mcf Liquid) 25
26 Q-max Ships are Market Tailored Qmax Ships are tailored for the Arabian Gulf and Australia to Asia Market 26
27 LNG Export Terminals LNG Terminals Can Cost Several Billion $ to Construct 27
28 As of April 17, 2013 LNG Export Terminals North American LNG Import/Export Terminals , Proposed/Potential US Jurisdiction FERC MARAD/USCG 28 Import Terminal PROPOSED TO FERC 1. Robbinston, ME: 0.5 Bcfd (Kestrel Energy - Downeast LNG) 2. Astoria, OR: 1.5 Bcfd (Oregon LNG) 3. Corpus Christi, TX: 0.4 Bcfd (Cheniere Corpus Christi LNG) POTENTIAL U.S. SITES IDENTIFIED BY PROJECT SPONSORS 4. Offshore New York: 0.4 Bcfd (Liberty ) Export Terminal PROPOSED TO FERC 5. Freeport, TX: 1.8 Bcfd (Freeport LNG Dev/Freeport LNG Expansion/FLNG Liquefaction)* 6. Corpus Christi, TX: 2.1 Bcfd (Cheniere Corpus Christi LNG)* 7. Coos Bay, OR: 0.9 Bcfd (Jordan Cove Energy Project) 8. Lake Charles, LA: 2.4 Bcfd (Southern Union - Trunkline LNG) 9. Hackberry, LA: 1.7 Bcfd (Sempra Cameron LNG)* 10. Cove Point, MD: 0.82 Bcfd (Dominion Cove Point LNG)* 11. Astoria, OR: 1.30 Bcfd (Oregon LNG) 12. Lavaca Bay, TX: 1.38 Bcfd (Excelerate Liquefaction) 13. Elba Island, GA: 0.35 Bcfd (Southern LNG Company) 14. Sabine Pass; LA: 1.3 Bcfd (Sabine Pass Liquefaction) 15. Lake Charles, LA: 1.07 Bcfd (Magnolia LNG) 16. Plaquemines Parish, LA: 1.07 Bcfd (CE FLNG) PROPOSED CANADIAN SITES IDENTIFIED BY PROJECT SPONSORS 17. Kitimat, BC: 0.7 Bcfd (Apache Canada Ltd.) 18. Douglas Island, BC: 0.25 Bcfd (BC LNG Export Cooperative) POTENTIAL U.S. SITES IDENTIFIED BY PROJECT SPONSORS 19. Brownsville, TX: 2.8 Bcfd (Gulf Coast LNG Export) 20. Pascagoula, MS: 1.5 Bcfd (Gulf LNG Liquefaction) 21. Sabine Pass, TX: 2.6 Bcfd (ExxonMobil Golden Pass) 22. Cameron Parish, LA: 0.16 Bcfd (Waller LNG Services) 23. Ingleside, TX: 1.09 Bcfd (Pangea LNG (North America)) 24. Cameron Parish, LA: 0.20 Bcfd (Gasfin Development) U.S. MARAD/COAST GUARD 25. Gulf of Mexico: 3.22 Bcfd (Main Pass - Freeport-McMoRan) POTENTIAL CANADIAN SITES IDENTIFIED BY PROJECT SPONSORS 26. Prince Rupert Island, BC: 1.0 Bcfd (Shell Canada) 27. Goldboro, NS: 0.67 Bcfd (Pieridae Energy Canada) 28. Kitimat, BC: 2.0 Bcfd (LNG Canada) Office of Energy Projects
29 So What is the US Policy for NatGas? NatGas for Transportation? NatGas for Electricity Generation? NatGas for Export? NatGas for Economic (Manufacturing) Advantage? NatGas for Carbon Reduction? NatGas for Energy Transition (A Bridge to )? NatGas for Revenue Generation? 29
30 Governing Federal Statutes National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Requires EIA on Federal lands Clean Air Act (CAA) Requires Permitting for Drilling and Production Clean Water Act (CWA) Regulates Surface Water Discharge of All Liquids Related to Drilling and Production Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) Regulates Underground Injection of Waste Fluids Emergency Planning and Right-to-Know Act (EPCRA) Requires Emergency Plans and Notification Procedures Endangered Species Act (ESA) Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) Regulates Manufacturing and Use of Certain Chemicals Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) Regulates the Handling of Drilling Waste 30
31 Dr. Fred Beach 31
32 Fugitive Methane Emissions EPA US GHG Inventory
33 Fugitive Methane Emissions Howarth, Santoro, & Ingraffea, Methane and greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas from shale formations Climate Change, June
34 Laredo Petroleum s Cline Shale Play 34
35 But It s Not Just Laredo 35
36 demand for renewables, which in turn will drive demand for more gas-fired peaking plant. Figure 1. The ages of energy in the US: history suggests a process of substitution 100% Wood Coal Petroleum Hydro Nuclear Other biomass Other renewables Age of renewables? 80% 'Golden' age of gas? quadrillion Btus 60% 40% Age of wood 1-10 quadrillion Btus Age of coal quadrillion Btus Age of oil quadrillion Btus 20% 0% Source: IEA, EIA, Citi Research The emergence of shale gas has had a profound 36 effect on certain countries energy
37 Bakken Shale Minot Bismarck Miles 37
38 Australia
39 Australia
40 Northern Russia
41 Northern Russia
42 Export Qmax LNG Tankers, 5.7 Bcf capacity (9.4 Mcf Liquid) 42
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