Daniel Theuri Team Leader. Que Energy Limited Nairobi,Kenya. Energy

Transcription

1 Daniel Theuri Team Leader Que Energy Limited Nairobi,Kenya Q- Energy

2 Decentralised small hydropower schemes and the potential for distributed generation in sub Sahara Africa

3 Definition of Small Hydropower No universally accepted definition. Increasingly 10 MWe - upper range limit Small hydro class 1-10 MWe Mini Hydro Micro hydro Pico Hydro MWe 5.0 kwe 100 kwe >0 5kWe More often run of the river or intake weir can be a small dam allowing periodical peak

4 Context of distributed system DG in this presentation may include: Isolated systems with isolated mini grid i.e. a village/small trading centers grid Stand alone systems feeding a non distributed load or load complex i.e. power kiosks or hospital power supply or rural factory like tea factory Scheme feeding to the national grid

5 Small Hydro Resources Statement The Energy assessment for SSA is limited Only 9 countries with estimates based on pre-2005 assumptions ie ultilisation capacity of less than 50% Hence the GWh/yr is understated using current technologies for conversion. Of the reported technical and economically feasible 50-70% or equivalent is SHP

6 Africa GIS Gtopo 30 DEM Source: USGS Eros Data Centre

7 Africa GIS Relief White denotes relief above 1750 masl. Light green are below 400 masl Notice the short distance between highlands and lowlands - Streams in these areas are associated with very high midstream velocities Source: US Geological Survey Digital Data Series DDS-62-B

8 Resource availability Area associated with steep valleys and gorges and one of the heaviest faulting in the continent. This explains high midstream velocities, waterfalls and rapids recipe for SHPs Mt. Kenya a conical formation 65 km diameter at 1750masl assume most of rivers have significant Q at 3800masl then the rivers drop on average 2300 m to the foot of the mountain at 1150masl

9 Features of SHP influencing potential application in SSA Modular application meeting immediate need in terms of size Durability and robustness of some technologies can withstand manhandling CFTs Can fit pocket size community own resource mobilization Capacity for limited local operation and maintenance - Remote SSA village O&M Long life years

10 Features of SHP influencing potential application in SSA cont Multiple power application enhancing utilization capacity- shaft and electricity Emerging ability to manufacture and install some of the technologies reducing lead time. Low cost of energy when consumption is above 60% capacity. Low intensity applications - lighting, radio and charging mobiles, etc picopower applications

11 Mountains, Escarpments, Rapids

12 Factors influencing uptake of small hydros Historical development earliest known form of modern energy in most countries Policies favored the incumbent utilities based on vertical monopolies most of them undone Subsequent unbundling of these monopolistic utilities exposing suppressed demand and inherent weakness of national grids

13 Factors influencing uptake of small hydros cont. Improved performance of other social indicators hence increased demand for modern energy services education and health and rural infrastructure Technology development and innovations capacity to utilize sites hitherto considered uneconomical pico and micro-hydro turbines and soon coming SWER systems

14 What will be the main driver of the SHP opportunistic development Continuing and emerging policy shifts emerging energy frontiers. Real demand for SHPs decreasing opportunities for medium and large scale at national and local level Boosting momentums by national governments and regional organs FIT Scaling access to energy strategies

15 What will be the main driver of the SHP opportunistic development Indication of lack or low capacity of national utilities to: Meet localized often remote demand Poor quality energy services High capital investments requirements Resources availability and losses - T&D International carbonless economies Greening projects, Global warming threats,

16 Great SHP opportunities in SSA Relative geographic distribution density. Relative high demand emerging markets Note SSA population density and Sitting of the SHPs State pro-active agenda FITs, Special funds ie Kenya, Climate Change driven urge to: Fuel substitution both at HHs ad rural industries - Fossil/kerosene and dry cells

17 Great SHP opportunities in SSA.. Alternative energy services Tea Industry Increased awareness and publicity Growth opportunities for service providers ie telecommunication and FM radio repeater stations etc Technology innovations allowing greater availability ( increased efficiency and feasibility) allowing for LHLV sites

18 Major Challenges Ahead ñ Structural barriers Information and knowledge barriers availability and technical options High initial cost, technical uncertainty, poor requisite infrastructure and non existent R&D - both private and public Utility barriers cost of interconnection, standards and codes, utility charges Environmental barriers perceived threats vs. good grandfathering

19 Major Challenges cont. Market and market failure for SHPs Social or market driven SHP agenda Local capacity to pay Private Sector Innovation on addressing initial first costs Equity issues BOO, BOOT, JV Stranded costs associated with existing DGs T&D losses Concerns over ability to meet on site demand

20 SHP Distributed Generated power is changing Things SHP with > 60% utilization compete with Grid Rural Electrification Schemes Easy certification and licensing proceed as if authority is granted Connection rules and reliability issues being addressed Establishment of national grid codes Pricing of final delivered energy whose costs are T&D

21 Enhancing uptake through integration - issues Small Turbines typically don t have characteristics to fill and support all the national grid need SHPs can be seen as power products and voltage support Future of FIT for the too many REs competition for the slot. Mitigation of perceived system integrity i.e. harmonics

22 Overcoming barriers and challenges Scaling up access to modern energy using High Impact Low Cost interventions like SHPs must include budgetary support Policy support measures Supporting resource mapping Feasibility studies Development of Standards and codes of practice

23 Overcoming barriers and challenges cont. Overcoming data and information barriers through: data capturing and archiving, Information synthesis and packaging Capacity integration across region Post Meter Interventions increasing capacity to consume and invest in modern energy services. Market transformation initiatives taking into account equity issues

24 End Sources: Policy papers: Ke, Ug, Rw, Eth and RSA Global GIS Database 2001 USGS International Small Hydro Atlas Small Hydropower: Technology and current status. Oliver, P. IT Power, UK,2002 Ministerial Conference on water for agriculture and energy in Africa: Sirte, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, December Survey of Energy resources. World Energy Councli,2010 Personal papers