The Energy (ENE) Program

Transcription

1 The Energy (ENE) Program Keywan Riahi Program Director, Energy Handout, UK Panel Visit December, 2014

2 Sustainable development means overcoming several energy challenges Energy Poverty Energy Security Land Use & Forests Climate Change Water Air Pollution Image sources: NASA,

3 Core Research Activities Integrated Assessment of Climate Change (IPCC, IAMC, RCPs, SSPs) multi-sector, multi-ghgs, land-use competition Energy Policy Analysis Integration across diverse objectives Environment, Climate Change, Air Pollution/SLCFs, Water Energy Access (spatial & temporal heterogeneity) Energy Security Global Energy Assessment Exploratory Research: uncertainty & risk, multi-criteria tools, behavior, technology diffusion

4 Global Energy Assessment (GEA) 300 Authors 200 Reviewers Assessment of Major energy challenges Transformation strategies Effective policies Costs & benefits GEA Launch Rio+20 Josè Goldemberg, Yong Ha Kim, H.E. Nguyen Thien, L. Gomez-Echeverri, Pavel Kabat, Hasan Mahmud, Kuntoro Mangkusubroto

5 Global Energy Transformations Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing) Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change Energy transformations require R&D and rapid technology diffusion & deployment Sustained energy investments are needed and would result in multiple co-benefits

6 Mapping of Energy Access: Distribution of Populations Without Access to Modern Energy >3 billion lack access to modern cooking energy >1.2 billion lack access to electricity Source: Pachauri et al. 2013

7 Source: Pachauri et al. 2013; Rao 2013; Pachauri & Rao 2013 Estimating Benefits/Impacts - Lack of Access to Modern Energy Social costs Health: ~2 million premature deaths today and almost ~1 million in 2030 from household air pollution if BAU Time & Gender: Between 1 to 5 billion women-hours lost annually in collection and tending Impacts on livelihood Employment & Productivity: Limited productive hours Every hour of supply likely to raise earnings by 0.5% in Indian Non-Farm rural enterprises Income: Limited work and business possibilities - Earnings 25% higher for Non-Farm Rural Enterprises in India with electricity access Environmental impacts Local forest, land and soil degradation Local and regional air quality CO2 emissions if biomass is unsustainably harvested Emissions of non-co2 GHG and aerosols with higher GWP.

8 Policy Scenarios for Universal Modern Cooking Access Population Dependent on Solid Fuels in Billions An additional 200 million without access by 2030 Subsidies alone reduce dependence by one-third Fuel subsidies coupled with grants or microfinance schemes most effective Microfinance alone not effective People gaining access to modern energy carriers 0.0 Base 2005 No new policies % Fuel Subsidy 2030 only % Fuel Subsidy 2030 Source: Pachauri et al. 2013

9 Assessment of current climate policies Copenhagen & Cancun Agreements GHG emissions (GtCO2 equiv.) Lack of short-term reductions (2030) AIM-Enduse DNE21 GCAM IMAGE MERGE-ETL MESSAGE REMIND WITCH Baseline High 2030 Low 2030 Optimal

10 The Transformation towards sustainable energy requires fundamental changes Primary Energy, EJ per year GEA-Efficiency Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~50% renewables by 2050 Phase-out of oil in the long term (necessary) Fossil CCS (optional bridging technology) Bio-CCS & negative emissions (long-term) Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012)

11 Energy efficiency measures and behavioral change EJ / yr Industry: 1. Retrofit of existing plants 2. Best available technology for new Residential: investments 1. Rapid introduction of strict 3. Optimization of energy & material building codes flows Transport: 2. Accelerate retrofit rate to 4. Lifecycle product 1. Technology design & efficiency 3% of stock per year (x 4 enhanced recycling (50%) improvement by 2050) 5. Electrification 2. incl. Reduced switch private to 3. Improved electrical renewable energy mobility (eg urban appliances planning) 3. Infrastructure for public transport + railway freight GEA-Efficiency

12 Health Assessment / Benefits Stringent pollution/access/climate policies by 2030 World Emissions (e) (2030) Global PM2.5 concentrations ~12.3 µg/m3 2.6 million lives saved each year GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012; Rao et al, 2013)

13 Investment Portfolio - China 2010 & 2050 Renewable Electricity Today (185 bill.) Other conversion Oil Gas Coal Electricity Transmission Nuclear Renewable Electricity Fossil Electricity Baseline (370 bill) Other conversion Oil Gas Sustainable Portfolio (407 bill.) Renewable Electricity Fossil Electricity Electricity Transmission Other conversion CCS Efficiency (marginal) Nuclear Fossil Electricity Electricity Transmission Coal Coal Gas Oil Source: Riahi et al. (2012)

14 D. McCollum, V. Krey, K. Riahi (2011) Synergies of Meeting Multiple Energy Objectives CC Climate Change PH Pollution & Health ES Energy Security ES ES ES ES Integrated Climate-Pollution- Security Policies 1.2% CC PH CC PH CC PH CC PH Total Global Policy Costs ( ) 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point All objectives fulfilled at Stringent level At least one objective fulfilled at Intermediate level 0.2% 0.0% Only Energy Security Only Pollution Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives Policy Prioritization Framework Only Climate At least one objective fulfilled at Weak level All Three Objectives

15 2030 Energy Goals Universal Access to Modern Energy Double Energy Efficiency Improvement Double Renewable Share in Final Energy Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

16 Capacity building and Policy Tools Energy Access to clean cooking and electricity Energy security, pollution/health, and climate change: multiple objectives, their synergies and trade-offs IIASA-UNIDO-GEF: Cape Verde, 2012 UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

17 ENE Scenario Databases and Community Activities IPCC Working Group III (AR5) Representative Conc. Pathways (RCPs) Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) Energy Modeling Forum (EMF24, EMF27, EMF28) Global Energy Assessment (GEA) Asian Modeling Exercise (AME) AMPERE (EU-FP7 project) LIMITS (EU-FP7 project) Latin American Modeling Project (LAMP) (in collaboration with TNT)

18 IPCC scenarios: Representative concentration Pathways (RCPs) MESSAGE (IIASA) AIM (NIES) GCAM (PNNL) IMAGE (PBL) van Vuuren et al, 2011; Jones et al, 2013

19 Uncertainty: quantifications & ranking 2 o C Rogelj, McCollum, Riahi et al, Political (delayed action) 2. Geophysical 3. Social (energy demand) 4. Technological

20 Selected Recent Reports