Research to Applications in Action: Some examples & experiences from NOAA/Earth System Research PSD

Transcription

1 Research to Applications in Action: Some examples & experiences from NOAA/Earth System Research PSD Andrea J. Ray NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division Boulder, CO NOAA Climate Prediction Assessment Workshop 22 March 2016 Burlington, VT

2 Overview What is R2O? NOAA PSD engaged in societally relevant science themes across climateweather- hydrology interfaces A number of successful experiences, some preceding the new process: 3 examples Water Marine/terrestrial ecosystems El Nino Rapid Response Strategies and takeaways NOAA Climate Prediction Assessment Workshop 22 March

3 What is R20, R2A, R2X, O2R? Both the concept of moving research into operations and/or applications and NOAA formal programs to do this R20 -- knowledge, code, parameterization, new product is moved into operations R2A new application, or may be improvements in an ops product that increases use & application Applications as an assessment O2R when operations informs research or helps research ask new/refined questions Recent calls for proposals to accelerate transition of R&D outputs into NOAA s operations, applications, commercialization & other uses for societal benefits Requires a formal transition plan and agreement of the receiving operational NOAA office including that they ve included this in IT, staffing, computing plans Technical Readiness Levels NOAA Climate Prediction Assessment Workshop 22 March 2016

4 Technical readiness levels (TRL) Should be assigned to all R&D projects in order to establish a NOAA common language and baseline for the maturity of R&D projects. The TRL scheme adopted by NOAA is that developed by NASA and used by several other federal agencies, including the DoD and the DoE. Definitions: TRL 1: Basic principles observed and reported TRL 2: Technology concept and/or application formulated TRL 3: Analytical and experimental critical function and/or characteristic proof-of-concept TRL 4: Component/subsystem validation in laboratory environment TRL 5: System/subsystem/component validation in relevant environment TRL 6: System/subsystem model or prototyping demonstration in a relevant end-to-end environment TRL 7: System prototyping demonstration in an operational environment TRL 8: Actual system completed and "mission qualified" through test and demonstration in an operational environment TRL 9: Actual system "mission proven" through successful mission operations

5 Climate-weather- hydrology interface Water/drought: R20 R20 transferrable science & field programs: CALwater feeds into forecasting on forecasting Pacfic coast heavy rain events and flooding Forecast-informed Reservoir Operations Funded R2O projects on extreme precipitation [Mahoney] New products: Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) Mike Hobbins poster] Regional climate modeling predicting future changes in extreme precipitation events Strong partnerships with RISAs, Bureau of Reclamation, Army Corps, Water Utility Climate Alliance NOAA Climate Prediction Assessment Workshop 22 March 2016

6 Water/drought: Assessments Assessments have been high demand from partners, R2A, but not operational Assessments: synthesizing knowledge about a topic or on an event Attribution: interpreting events, such as droughts, floods, heatwaves 2013 Front Range Floods 2012 Great Plains Drought Assessment Climate in Colorado for Water Management 2008 & 2014 update NOAA Climate Prediction Assessment Workshop 22 March 2016

7 Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems Responds to NOAA climate adaptation and healthy marine ecosystem goals National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Portal for climate projections tailored to NMFS needs, in particular, Integrated Ecosystem Assessments Support for NMFS need for climate studies to assess the impacts of hydropower and ask for mitigation in the licensing of dams DOI North Central Climate Science Center, & Dept of Ag Climate Hub Collaborate with their scientists, provide climate expertise for research and assessments Developing a strategy to support NPS scenario planning two Park Units DOI/Fish and Wildlife Service Pika, Wolverine, Lynx ESA evaluations Assessment, advise, & collaborating are modes of service be available to provide climate expertise, participate High demand to support adaptation in response to the Executive Order on Climate NOAA Climate Prediction Assessment Workshop 22 March 2016

8 O2R so R2O NOAA RESEARCH ESRL PHYSICAL SCIENCES DIVISION Short term land, sea, and air campaign in the tropical Pacific to study the current El Niño & gather data in an effort to improve weather forecasts thousands of miles away Challenges in providing seasonal outlooks drove the science questions as well as the scientist s ideas of the next steps for improvements Focussing event for researchers Exchange in both directions Transformative for many researchers in understanding operational products regular engagement with ops products has led to many research questions and ideas for improvement January 18 th March 11 th El Nino Rapid Response (ENRR)

9 Strategies and capacities for shaping new products and services Strategies User studies integrating social science and prospecting for uses of science breakthroughs, Research that anticipates needs (often even before they have been articulated by users) and Developing capabilities that will meet new challenges, Partnerships with boundary organizations (CSCs, RISAs, Hubs) user groups (Reclamation, Army Corps, CSCs) to coproduce knowledge, Science support for boundary organizations such as NOAA RISAs and Dept of Interior Climate Science Centers Assessment, science advice as modes of service, but not operational Emerging demand of the Executive Order on Climate Increasing need for climate scientists to participate to provide climate expertise, participate NOAA Climate Prediction Assessment Workshop 22 March

10 Take-aways about the R2O process p High input costs: Little guidance on transition plans, or funding and overhead to review/manage Need for engagement between operational (often NWS) and researchers Relatively fewer opportunities to engage; Little travel $ for NWS Limitations of TRLs Based on getting a spacecraft into operation Needs revision to be effective for improvements to an operation already working Doesn t reflect assessment modes Beyond R2X to Services R2X is only part of the story service needs beyond products Network of people who can connect products and knowledge to applications E.g. comply with Executive Orders Ongoing iteration between researchers and operations for the benefit of both NOAA Climate Prediction Assessment Workshop 22 March 2016

11 Questions? NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division Boulder, CO

12 Water management user requirements Long range mainstem forecasts: precip, temp, wind, soil moisture Different periods, e.g. snow season (Oct-March, Jan-Apr), vs 1 & 3 mo Need for synthesis of research knowledge into products & analysis that connect climate impacts to water management impacts Beyond numerical predictions, what more can we say about risks/odds, e.g. given the status of ENSO; managers may choose to hedge Impacts of temperature --> evaporation, rain/snow mix, urban demand, length of growing season Timing of spring runoff --> water rights, reservoir reliability Needs for interpretive and context information along with numerical and map products, to inform & educate water management users: Routine interpretation, like webinars created internally for some NOAA staff, especially for ensemble streamflow prediction and seasonal outlooks (Werner et al 2014 & elsewhere) Simplifying the products (e.g. to a two-category product), serves some users (WWA finding) but reduces the information available, doesn't meet the needs of many users to support decisions. NOAA Climate Test Bed meeting, 9-10 Nov

13 Documenting water management requirements Long-standing requirement from the water resources management community to for skillful seasonal precipitation forecasts for water resources CCAWWG 2013: Reclamation/Army Corps/ NOAA report on User Needs for Improved Climate, Weather, and Hydrologic Information for water management, (tinyurl.com/mtrc9qp) Western States Water Council Position No. 366, re-adopted from 2011 the federal government should place a priority on improving subseasonal and seasonal precipitation forecasting capability that would support water management decisions. Ongoing efforts to understand user needs at RISAs, PSD, and RFCs themselves RFC reports and published papers document needs CBRFC & CNRFC constituent meetings, Ray and Webb 2015; Dilling and Berggren 2013; Werner et al 2013; Lowrey et al 2008; Ray 2004; Hartmann 2008, etc Evaluations of efforts to provide information to water managers: Werner et al 2015; McNie 2014 Major opportunity to provide sweet spot information (week2 to first season) to a major user group and NOAA constituent group NOAA Climate Prediction Assessment Workshop 22 March

14 Developing an understanding of user needs Ongoing engagement, iteration, with different user groups; multiple methods and social science perspectives Some individual studies focussed on specific groups From these efforts, we have identified major classes of users, and the major needs ( EOFs ) Need for ongoing social science work to refine needs, especially for less studied and under-served We know a lot more about user needs than official products are able to serve Examples of efforts: WWA RISA work with reservoir/water supply managers and the CBRFC NIDIS regional pilots; Nat l Drought Mitig. Center RISAs, DOI CSCs, Dept of Ag Hubs NOAA/SARP & related grants Seasonal Fire Assessments, led by CLIMAS NOAA Climate Prediction Assessment Workshop 22 March 2016

15 Extras

16 Sectoral context Identified groups of users Extremes plays out in many sectors, need context for each Water*: reservoir management, flood forecasting, longer term: urban planning/infrastructure, drought Agriculture: crop outlooks, planting decisions, crop disease, frost, hail, early/late season events Coastal*: storminess, flooding, sea level, wind, trends Ecosystems*: marine (NOAA)* & terrestrial (DOI, states) probabilities associated with changes in wet/dry precipitation extremes cascading impacts of changes on marine ecosystems Energy, Energy-Water nexus: water demand for urban residences, agricultural and industrial use Human Health: heat waves, sequences & disease Urban/building infrastructure: heat waves, snow loads, changes in extremes for adaptation planning processes

17 WHO uses for what: Not all users alike, major distinction is who s using and what for For S2S, major users are intermediaries who do something with the information to manage the risks for the public often with a preparedness or ready-set-go mindset, situational awareness, actions/decisions adjustable thru a season skill needed varies, often changes as they better understand the products Within NWS: Warning Coord. Mets, River Forecast Centers, CSFPs, etc Reservoir and water supply managers, Wildfire managers, Public Land managers (grazing, controlling invasive grasses, etc); agriculture Many of these already work with a variety of uncertain and often probabilistic information NOAA Climate Prediction Assessment Workshop 22 March 2016

18 Use of CPC Outlooks from Bob Peters, Denver Water Mar-Apr-May /31/2016

19 Actual Weather % Normal Precip Mar-Apr-May /31/2016

20 Other ways to frame the NRC S2S discussion Broaden the research agenda to include an applications agenda Need ongoing engagement, iteration, with different user groups Need convenors for these engagements Many exist: RISA s, DOI Climate Science Centers, [LCCs], and through some research groups Currently underfunded often difficult to get funding as research for these applied activities Applications and applied work often difficult under the rewards structure for academic positions Structural issues in the NWS: National product focus of CPC, with little time or resources for regional No S2S climate extension in WFO s, some in RISAs & among SCO s, RCCs, many WFO personel not trained in this time scale NOAA Climate Test Bed meeting, 9-10 Nov 2015

21 How climate/drought information might be used Conversation within water management groups and with their stakeholders, and with scientists -- dialogue about risks, e.g. drought/flood Mental models of managers for their systems are important as well as hydrologic and management models Relationship of climate information to their triggers & thresholds for action As interested in the information behind the Drought Monitor as the DM itself, in order to make their own assessments Major need for synthesis of research into products & analysis that connect climate impacts to water management impacts: Temperature --> evaporation, rain/snow mix, urban demand, length of growing season Timing of spring runoff --> water rights, reservoir reliability NOAA Climate Test Bed meeting, 9-10 Nov 2015

22 RISAs point out that there are some key climate features of interest to different regions, include: Southeast and great plains: convective precipitation; summer ppt and soil moisture for crops, growing Southwest, the monsoon leads to extremes, but isn t well represented in the outlooks; infrequent but severe dust storms. Northwest and pacific coast: Pineapple Express/Atmospheric rivers drive flooding. In the mountainous west, early springs or late falls affect snowpack. Southeast and Atlantic coast: Ice storms, heavy winter storms in the east coast Central/SE: tornado outbreaks

23 NOAA Climate Test Bed meeting, 9-10 Nov

24 NOAA Climate Test Bed meeting, 9-10 Nov