The role of natural gas in the future energy system The need for flexibility

Transcription

1 The role of natural gas in the future energy system The need for flexibility February 26 th Trondheim, NORWAY This is the first in a series of workshops on Energy Transition arranged in Trondheim in the last week of February, The purpose of the workshops and the Energy Transition conference is to identify key insights on Energy Transition in the interface between academia, industry and government, and to define a research agenda addressing the main challenges in the transition towards a sustainable energy system. The main focus on this workshop is the future sustainable energy system and the role of natural gas, and related technologies hydrogen and carbon capture and storage (CCS). This workshop brings together leading academics and industry to define a research agenda on the future of natural gas. Questions that we hope to address during the day are: - What role will natural gas play in climate mitigation? - What are the important characteristics of natural gas that may make it an important fuel for the future, or act as barriers for the same? - Better system integration across energy carriers and sectors seems to be a trend in order to provide flexibility to an energy system with high RES share. What role can value chains for natural gas, hydrogen and CCS play? - What gaps can we identify regarding technological capabilities, the needed services and the related regulation in order to fill that potential role? We would like to involve the participants to identify and discuss the central research questions. The outcome of the workshop will be a draft for a natural gas research agenda that can lay the fundament for one or several multi-national projects on the role of natural gas in the future energy system. This meeting employs a modified Chatham House Rule. Participants are free to use the information received during the meeting, but specific positions taken by individuals should not be attributed without expressed permission. However, formal presentations, the meeting agenda, and the meeting participation list will become part of the public meeting record unless participants request anonymity. We have designed the workshop agenda to encourage discussion among the participants. We have incorporated a number of different roles for participants, but first, and foremost we view all participants as equal contributors for each session. The workshop will include for each session 2-3 introductions (10-15 minutes long), some prepared initial comments (3-4 minutes without slides), and the most important part, plenary discussion. A chair will help focus on what we can do to inform the process.

2 Monday February 26th, :30 Bus Transport from Hotel to Statoil 9:00 Session 1: Welcome, Context and Objectives for workshop Chair: Asgeir Tomasgard (NTNU) / Per Ivar Karstad (Statoil) Welcome (5 min) Johan Hustad, NTNU/Henriette Undrum, Statoil Introduction round (10 min) The Role of Natural Gas in the Future Energy System possibilities and challenges, Asgeir Tomasgard, NTNU (15 min) The role of natural gas in climate gas mitigation, Jae Edmonds, Joint Global Change research Institute (15 min) Discussion (25 min) 10:10 Session 2: Technological capabilities What new development is needed for natural gas to play a role in a sustainable energy system? This session focuses on natural gas in the power sector and the heat sector, but with possible synergies with industry and transport. The session addresses both power production, hydrogen production from natural gas and joint infrastructures shared between the industry and the energy sector for carbon capture, transport and storage. Hydrogen may play a role as a clean fuel in the transport sector, creating added value. A special focus is put on some important factors: - A major need in the power sector is to supplement the renewable generation with sources of flexibility that can either create new demand when there is a power surplus, or provide backup generation when there is an undersupply. Natural gas may act as s source for flexibility, both unabated and when combined with CCS. - Power produced from unabated natural gas may play a role for some years, but with CCS, a natural question would be if natural gas is part of the long-term solution also in an emission free energy system? If so what are the technological capabilities needed in terms of flexibility? - How is the capacity to ramp up and down power plants affected by CCS technologies? What is the capability to store natural gas in pipelines and use them as buffers? How should we dimension infrastructure for CO2- transport? - System integration and substitution between heat and electricity. Natural gas plays a role in both value chains. - Both power and natural gas may also be used to produce hydrogen and provide an emission free fuel for the heat sector (and transport). - In both cases CC(T)S is a needed technology. What technological capabilities do we need to develop for these value chains to become a reality towards 2030 and 2050.

3 - Can CC(T)S technologies for natural gas also play a role in negative emissions. What development is needed. - Issues associated with infrastructure build out. How fast can and should it happen? Chair: Henriette Undrum, Statoil Introductions (45 min) - The value chain perpective: Natural gas, hydrogen and CCS, Mona Mølnvik, SINTEF - Technological capabilites for power plants with CCS, Lars Nord, NTNU - Hydrogen value chains, Per Ivar Karstad, Statoil Initial comments (15min; ~5 min each) - The US Hydrogen perspective, Katrina Groth University of Maryland - The Norwegian perspective on CCS, Ståle Aakenes, Gassnova. - The European perspective, Olivier Massol, IFP Open Discussion (30 minutes) 11:40 Lunch 12:40 Session 3: Global gas markets and climate mitigation The role of natural gas may vary by geographical location, based on availability, access to alternative energy sources and local policy. There may also be differences between developed economies and developing economies both in terms of priorities between access to energy and climate mitigation, the need for energy infrastructures and links to other policy areas related to economic growth, energy security, local pollution and more. Because of LNG and hydrogen, natural gas is increasingly a global commodity. This session explores issues related to global gas markets and the role of natural gas in global climate mitigations strategies. Are there differences between Europe and the rest of the world? Will the shale gas development continue, and how will that affect the global commodity markets? Is there a role for natural gas in Europe? If so what is the role? If not, where will Norwegian and Russian natural gas be sourced? The role of LNG versus hydrogen? Introduction Chair: Magnus Korpås, NTNU Introductions (30 min) - The global role of natural gas in a climate strategy perspective, Sergey Paltsev, MIT - Shale gas and LNG - effects on global markets, Steven Gabriel, University of Maryland

4 - Global natural gas markets perspectives from the World Energy Outlook, Johannes Trueby, IEA Initial Comments (15 min, ~5 min each) - Christian von Hirschhausen, DIW Berlin - Impacts of an Ice-Free Northeast Passage, Reinhard Madlener, RWTH Aachen. - Europe and the future of Norwegian natural gas, Morten Anker, Deputy Director General, Ministry of Petroleum and Energy. Open Discussion (40 min) 14:10 Break 14:40 Session 4: Policy and acceptance, new services and regulation: What new development is needed for natural gas to play a role? (90 min) While technological capabilities are important for natural gas, hydrogen and CCS to play a role in the future energy systems, issues related to energy policy, climate policy and transport policy can either be barriers or enablers for this development. Also, public perception and acceptance of technologies play a major role. Market design affects both the short-run allocations of resources and the long-term as it provides incentives for investment in generation capacity, infrastructure and research. In EU, the energy systems are moving in a direction focusing more on the consumers, their access to the markets, local solutions and distributed systems. Both storage technologies (like batteries), market services (based for example on demand response), and substitution between energy carriers locally, seems to be part of the current strategy. This naturally affects the need for large scale centralized energy sources and the infrastructures linked to those, like fossil fueled power plants (with or without CCS), grid development, hydrogen from steam reforming and CCS and transport. Under the assumption that these technologies if made clean can play a role in the energy system, this session asks the questions of what possibilities should be exploited and which new services, policy and regulation would be needed to support that. Likewise, we focus on the current barriers for those technologies and how to remove those. Chair: Volker Krey, IIASA Introductions (20 min) - The role of natural gas in the Energiwende, Franizika Holz, DIW Berlin. - Flexibility from natural gas pipelines, Kjetil Midthun, SINTEF. Initial comments (20 min) - Homeowner satisfaction with low-carbon heating technologies, Reinhard Madlener, RWTH Aachen - Perspective from the gas transport industry, Daniel Muthmann, Open Grid Europe - The changing role of the Netherlands in European gas supply, Aad Correlje, TU Delft. - The economics of shared CCS infrastructure, Olivier Massol, IFP

5 Open Discussion (35 min) 16:00 Break 16:30 Session 5: Research Needs and Future Directions This session asks the question, what are the most urgent research needs to ensure that natural gas can play a positive role in climate mitigation and the transition to a sustainable energy system. Chair: Asgeir Tomasgard What Research Needs Have We Identified? (30 min) - Observations: Capabilities and technology research needs, Jostein Pettersen, Senior Specialist, Statoil and professor II, NTNU - Observations: Policy, regulation and new services needs, Robert Ritz, University of Cambridge - Observations: Global gas markets and mitigation needs, Christian von Hirschhausen, TU Berlin Reflections (45 min) Discussion of key findings from workshop and the most important research questions going forward. Each participant gets up to 1 minutes for remarks. Future Directions (10 min) - Follow up Asgeir Tomasgard 17:40 Adjourn 6:00 PM Bus to hotel 7:00 PM Dinner