Concentrating Solar Power

Transcription

1 Concentrating Solar Power Mark Mehos, Chuck Kutscher National Renewable Energy Laboratory September 19, 2007

2 CSP Technologies and Market Sectors Dispatchable Generation Parabolic trough Power tower Non-Dispatchable Generation Dish/Engine

3 Value of Dispatchable Power? Meeting Utility Power Demands Solar Resource Generation w/ Thermal Storage Hourly Load Storage provides higher value because power production can match utility needs lower costs because storage is cheaper than incremental turbine costs

4 Parabolic Trough Output Profile Summer Day July 8, Actual system load, modeled solar output based on actual DNI APS Load (MWe) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Net Solar Output (MWe) 0 0 0:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00 APS Load MWe Solar Output Solar with TES

5 Parabolic Trough Output Profile Summer Day December 11, Actual system load, modeled solar output based on actual DNI APS Load (MWe) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Net Solar Output (MWe) 0 0 0:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00 APS Load MWe Solar Output Solar with TES

6 CSP Costs and Targets Current Costs Highly dependent on plant size, financing, incentives $.12-$.16/kwh nominal LCOE Goals CSP Proposed Baseload Initiative: intermediate power at 8-10 cents/kwh (nominal LCOE) by 2015 (5-year acceleration of current plan), and baseload power at about 6-8 cents/kwh (nominal LCOE) by 2020 (including systems with 60-75% capacity factor)

7 Parabolic Trough Technology Advances Advanced Selective Coatings Thermal emittance of 400C Absorptance of 95% Transmittance of 96% Advanced Concentrator Designs Increased size (EuroTrough) Improved mirror reflectivity (95% + 96% cleanliness) Molten-Salt Heat Transfer Fluids and Thermal Storage Molten-Salt (Hitec) HTF at 500ºC Single tank thermocline TES system

8 Parabolic Trough Potential Cost Reductions Real Levelized Cost of Energy (2006 $/kwh) % 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% Annual Capacity Factor Baseline 100 MWe 2-Tank Indirect Molten-salt 500C Power Park 4x200 Baseline Plus Advanced Solar Tech Scale-up to 200 MWe Power Park w/ 3X Learning

9 How Does CSP Stack Up? Real Levelized Cost of Energy (2006 $/kwh) % 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 85% Annual Capacity Factor Baseline 2:Tank Indirect Molten-salt 500C Power Park 4x200 Power Park w/ 3X Learning Conventional Gas Combined Cycle Pulverized Coal Sequestered Gas Combined Cycle Sequestered Coal IGCC New Nuclear Power

10 U.S. Market Analysis Focused Initially on the Southwest Region

11 Southwest Solar Resources (With all Filters) Result: 7,000 GW (7X U.S. capacity)! Source: Western Governors Association study

12 Southwest Solar Energy Potential Solar Land Area Solar Capacity Generation Capacity State (mi 2 ) (MW) GWh AZ 19,279 2,467,663 5,836,517 CA 6, ,204 2,074,763 CO 2, , ,105 NV 5, ,438 1,692,154 NM 15,156 1,939,970 4,588,417 TX 1, , ,774 UT 3, ,147 1,078,879 Total 53,727 6,877,055 16,265,611 Seattle The table and map represent land that has no primary use today, exclude land with slope > 1%, and do not count sensitive lands. Solar Energy Resource 6.75 Capacity assumes 5 acres/mw Generation assumes 27% annual capacity factor 500 km km Chicago Salt Lake 1000 km 1500 km Dallas 3000 km 3000 km Boston Long distance HVDC tie would add roughly 1.5 cents/kwh to cost of CSP Miami

13 Deployment of 80 GW of CSP

14 European Transmission Studies Concentrating Solar Power for the Mediterranean Region, German Aerospace Center (DLR), 2005

15 Operating Central Station Systems The Solar Energy Generating Systems (SEGS) at Kramer Junction, CA (SEGS III-VII) Five 30MW hybrid trough plants for a total of 150MW Capacity Commissioned Performance has increased with time Four additional SEGS plants located in two locations (Daggett, Harper Lake) for combined total of nine plants and 354 MW capacity

16 SEGS Deployment & Production Solar Thermal Capacity Annual Electricity Generation GWhr Capacity in MW YEAR Generation (GWh) in YEAR Solar Electric Generation Stations (SEGS) Deployment and power production

17 1-MW Arizona Trough Plant near Tucson, AZ

18 64 MWe Solargenix Parabolic Trough Plant

19 50 MW AndaSol-1 Parabolic Trough Plant w/ 7-hr Storage Andalucia, Spain

20 Solucar PS10 Power Tower Sevilla, Spain

21 Solucar 50 MW Trough Project Sevilla, Spain First of 5 x 50MW parabolic trough plants under construction by Solucar

22 CSP Projects mid 2007 U.S. projects: enabled by 30% investment tax credit and State renewable portfolio standards State RPS Requirement Arizona 15% by 2025 California 20% by 2010 Colorado 20% by 2020 Nevada 20% by 2015, 5% Solar New Mexico 20% by 2015 Texas 5,880MW (~4.2%) by 2015 Utility/State Arizona Public Service (APS) Capacity (MW) Technology - Status 1 Trough completed and in operation 2006 (Acciona) Nevada Power 64 Trough completed and in operation June 2007 (Acciona) Southern Cal Edison San Diego Gas & Electric Pacific Gas & Electric Pacific Gas & Electric SW Utility joint venture (APS) New Mexico Utility Joint Venture Dish signed power purchase agreement (SES) Dish signed power purchase agreement (SES) 550 Trough signed power purchase agreement (Solel) 500 Tower MOU signed (Bright Source) Est. 250 TBD multiple expressions of interest submitted TBD initial stages

23 CSP Projects International Country/Company Capacity (MW) Technology -Status Spain: Solar Millenium 4 x 50MW with storage Trough Andosol 1 &2 under construction. Spain: Abengoa/Solucar 5 x 50MW Trough 1 st plant under construction Spain: Abengoa/Solucar 11MW &20MW Power Tower (saturated steam) PS10 operational. PS20 under construction Spain: SENER 17MW Power Tower (molten salt) contract terms under discussion Spain: various TBD Projects under various stages of development due to tariff for 500MWs of CSP capacity. Cap likely to be raised to 1000MWs. Algeria: Abener 150MW Integrated Solar Combined Cycle System (ISCCS) 25MW Solar Capacity Egypt: TBD 140MW ISCCS 25MW Solar Capacity, negotiations in progress Mexico: TBD TBD ISCCS RFP issued Morocco: TBD 230MW ISCCS 35 MW Solar Capacity Israel: Solel 2 x 125MW Trough Northern Negev. Waiting approval from Interior Ministry Australia: SHP 15MW,th Linear Fresnel under construction for integration into feed water heaters in existing coal plant Greece: TBD TBD Tariff for CSP recently enacted. Similar in design to Spanish feed-in tariff

24 Questions? Mark Mehos National Renewable Energy Laboratory (303)

25 Special Bonus Slides!!!!

26 SOLAR 2006, Denver Renewable Energy: Key to Climate Recovery

27 U.S. Carbon Emissions Displacement Potential from Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by 2030 What does it cost? -$108 B/yr $0 B/yr $9 B/yr $5 B/yr $5 B/yr $7 B/yr $3 B/yr Total: Savings of $82 B/yr 57% Energy Efficiency, 43% Renewables

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29 U.S. Renewable Electricity Generation in 2030 Percent of Grid Technology Energy in 2030 Concentrating Solar Power* 7 Photovoltaics 7 Wind 20 Biomass* 8 Geothermal* 9 Total 51 *Can provide baseload or near-baseload power

30 ASES report released Jan. 31, 2007 Available at: Adopted by Sierra Club as their energy roadmap