BIPV Competitiveness and Market Potential

Transcription

1 7 September 2017 BIPV Competitiveness and Market Potential by Gaëtan Masson, Director, Becquerel Institute Advanced Intelligence & Research on Solar PV

2 BECQUEREL INSTITUTE Est in Brussels Research oriented Institute and consulting company for Solar PV Technologies. Global PV Market Analysis including competitiveness and economics. Industry analysis together with quality & reliability. Integration into electricity systems (grids and markets). In-house experts / Global network of experts and stakeholders PV Market Alliance partner

3 COP21: BELGIUM CAN BE QUITE COMPLEX

4 Today s agenda BIPV market and competitiveness 1 The PV market & the BIPV market 2 Target costs for BIPV 3 Market Potential in Europe for BIPV 4 Why isn t it working already now? BIPV Competitiveness and Market Potential 4

5 FROM 1.1 to 76 GW in 12 years? And more? 76 GW 303 GW 5% PV Market Alliance 2017

6 BIPV market (source DemForBIPV) Best case around 3 GW in 2016 Or 4% of the global PV market. Part of real BIPV components? Part of architectural BIPV? Growth rate uncertain unless drivers are understood. BIPV Competitiveness and Market Potential 6

7 Current situation of European markets We currently are in a transitional period Phase-out from subsidised schemes for PV (Feed-in-Tariffs, Green Certificates and Net-metering) è Consequently, business models based on self-consumption are developing. Competitiveness under SC measured as the ability to produce electricity, sell it (or consume it locally) with revenues compensating (with a profit) the CAPEX and OPEX costs during the lifetime of the plant: CAPEX of PV System + OPEX of PV System Savings on electricity bills < + Sales of excess electricity During PV systems lifetime (25 years) Standard BAPV competitiveness has been measured with current low electricity market prices and shows that a 50% self-consumption solution could be competitive in all markets considered. BIPV Competitiveness and Market Potential 7

8 Competitiveness of BAPV solutions Detailed costs of a usual BAPV system Total CAPEX (for a commercial system) = 0,95 /Wp BIPV Competitiveness and Market Potential 8

9 Competitiveness of BIPV solutions Drawing a parallel with BAPV the classical approach Only if included in the BIPV «module» Target cost of BIPV systems MAX(BAPV[Module+DC Cabling+Mounting+Installation+Margin]) + Roofing material + Inverter BIPV Competitiveness and Market Potential 9

10 Competitiveness of BIPV solutions Evaluating the target cost in case of BIPV for a commercial roof The threshold for competitiveness for a commercial BIPV roof solution has been calculated as well: the system price needed to reach competitiveness in 2017 has been calculated assuming module efficiency of 16% and roofing material cost from 15 to 100 /m² No inverter included in BIPV system Taking into account a self-consumption ratio of 50% Target cost BAPV(Module+DC cabling+ ) in 2017 Total target cost (i.e. with roofing material) Belgium/Luxemburg 0,72 /Wp 0,82 /Wp > 1,34 /Wp France 0,63 /Wp (North) 1,18 /Wp (South) 0,73-1,28 /Wp > 1,35 1,9 /Wp Germany 1,10 /Wp (North) 1,18 /Wp (South) 1,20-1,28 /Wp > 1,82 1,9 /Wp Italy 1,69 /Wp (North) 2,11 /Wp (South) 1,79-2,21 /Wp > 2,41 2,83 /Wp Netherlands 0,76 /Wp 0,86 /Wp > 1,48 /Wp BIPV Competitiveness and Market Potential 10

11 Competitiveness of BIPV solutions Evaluating the target cost in case of BIPV for a industrial roof In case of an Industrial system. Assumptions are the same as on the previous slide (except roofing material estimated at 15 /m2) No inverter included in BIPV system Taking into account a self-consumption ratio of 75% Target cost BAPV(Module+DC cabling+ ) in 2017 Total target cost (i.e. with roofing material) Belgium/Luxemburg 0,80 /Wp 0,92 /Wp France 0,72 /Wp (North) 1,23 /Wp (South) 0,83-1,34 /Wp Germany 1,31 /Wp (North) 1,48 /Wp (South) 1,43-1,60 /Wp Italy 1,48 /Wp (North) 1,99 /Wp (South) 1,60-2,10 /Wp Netherlands 0,72 /Wp 0,83 /Wp BIPV Competitiveness and Market Potential 11

12 Competitiveness of BIPV solutions A special case of PV requiring a special assessment Metrics in /Wp are useful to compare BIPV costs with BAPV costs, so are classical LCOE calculation in /kwh BUT BIPV has more functions than just generating power, hence such metric is incomplete (thermal isolation, water proofing, ) BIPV elements are building elements before being PV elements: /m² are probably more suited Main barriers: Lack of awareness & resistance to change within the building sector Lack of cooperation between stakeholders: PV and Construction/Building sectors do not communicate Unadapted regulation Difficulty to identify required standards and certifications: PV and Building BIPV Competitiveness and Market Potential 12

13 Market Potential of BIPV in Europe Difficult question answer depends of the approach SUPPLY-SIDE APPROACH: DEMAND-SIDE APPROACH: If all suitable facade and roof areas of residential and non-residential buildings were covered with BIPV elements. Considering the power demand of residential and nonresidential buildings and what would be the BIPV capacity required to exclusively cover this demand. «Suitable» takes into account: Architectural suitability (considering shading areas, average space occupied by other devices ) Solar suitability: only areas where 80% of the maximum solar yield that can be reached at this specific location, i.e. at optimum tilt and azimuth But it is a «best case scenario»: many constraints must be overcome. Equal repartition between facade and roof BIPV, but at different yields of course. This scenario is based on the idea that BIPV produced power should be self-consumed on site considering today s regulatory uncertainty and unadequacy. BIPV Competitiveness and Market Potential 13

14 Market Potential of BIPV in Europe Difficult question answer depends of the approach SUPPLY-SIDE APPROACH: DEMAND-SIDE APPROACH: Germany Italy France France Italy Germany Belgium Netherlands Netherlands Belgium GWp GWp Low Scenario High Scenario Low Scenario High Scenario Adel EL GAMMAL, Philippe MACÉ et al., «Technical Evaluation of BIPV power generation potential in EU- 28», 32nd EU PVSEC, Munich, June 2016 BIPV Competitiveness and Market Potential 14

15 Market Potential of BIPV in Europe BIPV has the potential to generate Potential share of BIPV power generation in total power demand 38.1% 40.3% 31.3% 29.7% 23.8% Belgium France Germany Italy Netherlands Adel EL GAMMAL, Philippe MACÉ et al., «Technical Evaluation of BIPV power generation potential in EU-28», 32nd EU PVSEC, Munich, June 2016 BIPV Competitiveness and Market Potential 15

16 Conclusions The chicken and the egg In theory competitiveness could be possible already today in some segments. BIPV also suffers from the difficult situation of PV in Europe. Outisde of Europe, distributed PV markets are growing again after years of stagnation. Perspectives? BIPV is often seen as «architectural». By definition «tailor-made». Business models are significantly more complex, especially financing (mortage? Long term loans?) and insurance (who will cover what? Maintenance? Spare parts?) including guarantees (who will pay in case of late defect?) PV and BIPV business models shouldn t be mixed while there is a part in common. Lack of products to motivate buyers (Tesla? Not the first but the most visible) Out of solve the equation? Public policies targeting the financial and insurance aspects. R&D with market access. Call for tenders with technology requirements for BIPV. Develop easy-bipv? BIPV Competitiveness and Market Potential 16

17 Utility-scale TRENDS - < 3 USDcents/kWh is now feasible. - Reducing costs is still the challenge - Ad hoc modules - Bifacial modules - Longer lifetime (with repowering) - - MovablePV systems (for shorter projects) - From fields to water à floatting PV systems

18 _IPV - PV in the built environment > ease to self-consume locally PV electricity > competitive advantage - Buildings - BAPV + BIPV - Solving questions of: financing, insurance, maintenance (spare parts), standardization > ad hoc business models which are not developed yet - Rethink the notions of roofs / façades / building elements > evolving buildings - Materials: glass, but also metal, aesthetical aspects? - Mass manufacturing of BIPV is a central challenge - Urban furniture with PV - PV roads: high potential, high prices

19 Automotive PV - Electrification of vehicules is ongoing (slowly but growing) EVs sold in Europe in H1. China first world market. - Different uses - Power auxiliary equipment in cars (reduce fuel consumption or increase range) - Recharge EVs batteries (30km/day?) - Potential - 60,000,000 cars produced every year - 0,5 to 1 kwp per car - 30 to 60 GW of PV - Long-term reliability is less important, price is not an issue neither >> possible fast development.

20 Integrated energy approach PV as a part of an integrated approach: - Reshaping energy use in buildings - Storage (energy (heat, cold) and electricity) - EV as DSM, EV as storage - Virtual net-metering - >> innovative business models and commercial offers External uses: export + EV + storage (El) PV power source Energy management in building + storage (En)

21 Next step in evolution

22 CONTACT Gaëtan Masson, Director or Visit us at