DRAFT SUMMARY IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Brussels, 22 January 2010

Transcription

1 DRAFT SUMMARY IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Brussels, 22 January 2010

2 Introduction, Industry Vision and Political context

3 PV can contribute as much as 12% of EU electricity demand by 2020 Share of e-demand by 2020 GW Indicative Paradigm Shift Scenario: 12% Accelerated Scenario: 6% Baseline Scenario: 4%

4 SEII contribution to Achieving 12% PV penetration by 2020 Market deployment Feed-in-Tariffs Intensive & continuous R&D SOLAR EUROPE INDUSTRY INITIATIVE PV system integration 12% Target Smart Grids & integration of other RES 4

5 PV technology roadmap

6 PV technology state-of-the-art and major objectives/milestones for the next 10 years Turn-key price large systems ( /Wp) 5 2,5 2 1,5 PV electricity generation cost in Southern EU ( /kwh) Typical PV module efficiency range (%) Crystalline silicon 13-18% 15-20% 16-21% 18-23% Thin films 5-11% 6-12% 8-14% 10-16% Concentrators 20% 20-25% 25-30% 30-35% Inverter lifetime (years) >25 Cost of PV + small-scale storage ( /kwh) in Southern EU (grid-connected) <0.15 Energy pay-back time (years)

7 PV Module price (2009 $/W) PV Module price experience curve 100 PV Module price experience Curve since 1979 (2009 $/W) 1979 c-si 22% price reduction for each doubling of cumulative volume TF trend silicon trend Thin Films Crystalline silicon polysilicon shortage 1 Thin Film Cumulative Module production (MW) 7

8 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCoE) evolution for large ground-mounted systems 8

9 EC Technology Roadmap 9

10 Structure and priority areas

11 SEII: Structure & relation with other Industry Initiatives SEII 1: Cost Reduction Improving manufacturability Materials development & sustainability Enhancing Performance Advance pilot lines SEII 2: system Integration Advance grid integration Large-scale grid integration analysis Solar resources prediction & Monitoring Code, standards, regulation Education & training Demonstration & Deployment projects Advance pilot lines Large integration of PV in urban areas (focus on BIPV) Large integration of active PV distributed power generation (focus on grid integration) Large-scale PV power generation (focus on large demonstration of new concepts and technologies) Smart grids initiative Energy Efficient Buildings initiative Green Cars initiative Awareness 11

12 SEII Implementation Plan Core Focus of the SEII : selected priority areas 1. Cost reduction: paving the way to 2020 Advanced manufacturing processes for cells and modules Performance enhancement & lifetime extension Materials development & sustainability 2. System integration: paving the way to 2020 Large scale deployment (grid and building integration) Large scale PV power plants Solar resources and monitoring 3. Preparing for cost and penetration beyond 2020 levels Ultra low cost technologies Very high efficiency approaches Integration concepts for very high levels of penetration 12

13 Key Performance Indicators For commercial technologies (wafer silicon, TF, CPV) 1. Turn-key system price ( /kwp) 2. PV electricity generation cost ( /kwh) 3. PV module efficiency (%) 4. PV module life time (years) 5. Inverter lifetime (years) 6. PV + Storage cost ( /kwh) 7. Warranty of PV components (years) 8. System energy pay-back time (years) 9. # of advanced pilot lines For emerging and novel technologies 1. # of advanced pilot lines for ultra-low cost (printable) PV technologies 2. # of proofs of concept for very-high efficiency novel PV technologies 3. # of patents 4. # of start-up companies 5. # of proofs of concept for very high levels of PV penetration 13

14 Governance structure and aspects of implementation

15 Policy Context 1. The SEII is new to all involved and the best governance structure is still to be defined and demonstrated. 2. Implementation of the SEII should be based on a flexible and rolling program (able to rapidly evolve based on new situations and funding opportunities). 3. Joint programming on a European or multi-country level has been found to be a very difficult and lengthy process. In order not to slow down the implementation of the SEII, the level of ambition on this point should be a realistic one and grow along with the SEII itself. 4. It is essential, and the PV sector therefore expects, that dedicated public (on a short term EU, and later MS) budgets and funding instruments will be developed for projects and programs under the SEII. 5. Intellectual property rights (IPR) are essential for industry development, but should be handled in a way that optimises progress of the PV industry sector as whole and thus, of the SEII. A simple governance structure is the best solution to implement the initial phase of the SEII. 15

16 Solar Europe Industry Initiative: Advisory Board European Commission Members States: represented by council presidency Composition of Advisory Board SEII Advisory board 11 Representatives: EUPV TP: 4 EPIA: 4 EC: 2 MS: 1 EPIA EU PV TP Chairman, vice chairmen, Mirror group leader 16

17 Solar Europe Industry Initiative: Advisory Board Role of SEII Advisory Board Definition of Biannual Work Programme: When, What, How?? What & When : activities to be launched, How : funding mechanisms and budgets necessary Input: SEII Roadmap + EU PV TP (Working groups, Mirror group) + EPIA Main body for communication to the SET-Plan High Level Steering Committee (SET- Plan SC), Sherpas and European Institutions EPIA + EU PV TP + EC SEII Roadmap until 2020 SEII Advisory board 3-year Implementation Plan SET-Plan SC + Sherpas + EC 17

18 Definition of 3-years Work Program EPIA + EU PV TP + EC SEII Roadmap until 2020 SEII Advisory board 3-year Implementation Plan SET-Plan SC + Sherpas + EC Continuous interaction and agreement before publication 18

19 Implementation of 3-years Work Program SEII Advisory board + Decision makers of public funding agencies Joint activities Joint activities Joint activities National programs EC programs (FP7, CIP, IEE, ETS) Call for proposals EIB 19

20 Timeline th January March May June September, PVSEC Draft governance and structure and draft Implementation Plan Appointment SEII Advisory Board EC Endorsement and SET-Plan SC support Consolidation of 2020 PV Roadmap Appointment of decision makers of public funding agencies Drafting of launching agreements Official announcement of : SEII Advisory board Structure Roadmap National representatives Funding plans Definition of 3-year Implementation plan Budget, KPI s, priority areas Assess of EU added value and associated investment risk Official publication of 3 -year IP to MS and EC Launch of the calls To be defined by Advisory Board 20

21 Official Launch of the SEII: 3-4 June 2010, Madrid What does it mean? 1. Large communication campaign across Europe 2. What do we need by then? Consolidated Structure and Governance: To have defined an SEII Advisory Board To have defined a group of Decision makers of public funding agencies. Ideally 27, one per MS. At least, 7-9 representing major PV markets and industry. This needs the leadership/support of the EC. Consolidated PV roadmap until 2020 (mainly priority areas, KPIs, milestones). Announced funding plans from the EU. DRAFT Work program (Budget, KPI s, priority areas + assessment of EU added value and investment risk ) 21

22 Official Launch of the SEII: 3-4 June 2010, Madrid Key countries to support the SEII (tentative): Required Germany Spain Portugal Italy Greece France Belgium Netherlands UK Desired Bulgaria Rumania Sweden Austria Czech Republic Slovenia Poland Hungary 22

23 Estimated Budget

24 Budget breakdown for R&D & Demonstration additional funds only R&D & Demonstration cluster Estimated total budget for (M ) Estimated share of public funding required Cost reduction: paving the way to 2020 Advanced manufacturing processes for cells and % modules Performance enhancement & lifetime extension % Materials development & sustainability 50 60% System integration: paving the way to 2020 Large scale deployment (Grid and building % integration) Large scale PV power plants % Solar resources and monitoring 25 50% Preparing for cost and penetration beyond 2020 levels Ultra low cost technologies % Very high efficiency approaches % Integration concepts for very high levels of 25 90% penetration TOTAL % Brussels 13/01/2010 SEII Governance and Structure 24

25 Budget breakdown for R&D & Demonstration Brussels 13/01/2010 SEII Governance and Structure 25

26 Budget breakdown for R&D & Demonstration Brussels 13/01/2010 SEII Governance and Structure 26

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