Predicting the unpredictable - a macroecological approach towards future ecosystem scenarios
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1 Predicting the unpredictable - a macroecological approach towards future ecosystem scenarios Thomas Brey, AWI Natasha Del Cid
2 Predicting the unpredictable - a macroecological approach towards future ecosystem scenarios Macroecology = study of relationships between organisms and their environment at large spatial scales to characterise and explain statistical patterns of abundance, distribution and diversity (Brown 1989) Thomas Brey, AWI Natasha Del Cid
3 Predicting the unpredictable - a macroecological approach towards future ecosystem scenarios... a preview on years to come Thomas Brey, AWI Natasha Del Cid
4 Predicting the unpredictable - a macroecological approach towards future ecosystem scenarios... a preview on years to come... with focus on the benthic compartment Thomas Brey, AWI Natasha Del Cid
5 What are we expected to deliver? Management Fisheries Marine Drugs ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING Goods & Services Genetic Heritage Recreation Sustainable Use Bio-Reactor 2
6 What are we expected to deliver? Stakeholders Management Fisheries?! Marine Drugs ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING Goods & Services Genetic Heritage Science Analysis Model Prediction Sustainable Use Recreation Bio-Reactor 2
7 What are we expected to deliver? Stakeholders Management Fisheries?! Marine Drugs ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING globalwarmingart.com Goods & Services NASA Genetic Heritage Science Analysis Model Prediction HOT Sustainable Use Recreation Bio-Reactor 2
8 Why is ecosystem modeling so difficult? 3
9 Why is ecosystem modeling so difficult? Non-deterministic ecological processes Benincá et al Nature 451 Predictability Prediction time (d) 3
10 Why is ecosystem modeling so difficult? Non-deterministic ecological processes The players: genetic, taxonomic, functional diversity? Martin
11 Why is ecosystem modeling so difficult? Non-deterministic ecological processes The players: genetic, taxonomic, functional diversity? The rules: 1st Principles in ecophysiology & ecology? Secondary Extinction Models Jacob et al Number of species removed 3
12 Why is ecosystem modeling so difficult? Non-deterministic ecological processes The players: genetic, taxonomic, functional diversity? The rules: 1st Principles in ecophysiology & ecology? Spatial heterogenity of state & change Arctica islandica in the southern North Sea Witbaard et al
13 Why is ecosystem modeling so difficult? Non-deterministic ecological processes The players: genetic, taxonomic, functional diversity? The rules: 1st Principles in ecophysiology & ecology? Spatial heterogenity of state & change Arctica islandica Spatially in the explicit southern approach: North Sea Who is doing what, where and why? Witbaard et al
14 Is the whole > the sum of its parts? Dynamic Habitat Models Parameters Geo-Referenced Ecological Niche Models Species Performance Models Species Interaction Models ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING Goods & Services
15 Is the whole > the sum of its parts? Implicit chapter headings...
16 Is the whole > the sum of its parts? Implicit chapter headings... Geostatistics + niche models = game changer
17 Is the whole > the sum of its parts? Implicit chapter headings... Geostatistics + niche models = game changer Measuring performance of benthic biota
18 Is the whole > the sum of its parts? Implicit chapter headings... Geostatistics + niche models = game changer Measuring performance of benthic biota Linking the biosphere to its drivers
19 Is the whole > the sum of its parts? Implicit chapter headings... Geostatistics + niche models = game changer Measuring performance of benthic biota Linking the biosphere to its drivers A holistic view from the service side
20 Is the whole > the sum of its parts? Implicit chapter headings... Geostatistics + niche models = game changer Measuring performance of benthic biota Linking the biosphere to its drivers A holistic view from the service side Our regional focus
21 Geostatistics - Spatial pattern analysis Spatial patterns in species numbers
22 Geostatistics - Spatial pattern analysis Spatial patterns in species numbers
23 Benthic habitat modeling Habitat information Species information Depth & sediment type for each (grid) cell of the raster map Probability of species occurence in the depth & sediment continua
24 Benthic habitat modeling & Species preferences Habitat information Species information Depth & sediment type for each (grid) cell of the raster map Probability of species occurence in the depth & sediment continua
25 Dynamic habitat models Spatial probability model of species occurence Probability of species occurence in raster cell
26 Dynamic habitat models Spatial probability model of species occurence Pleuronectes platessa Probability of species occurence in raster cell
27 Dynamic habitat models Spatial probability model of species occurence -> Validation! Suitable Pleuronectes habitat <-> Realized niche platessa Probability of species occurence in raster cell
28 Ecophysiological niche modeling Thermal tolerance model Pörtner & Peck
29 Ecophysiological niche modeling Thermal tolerance model Species thermal niche model Pörtner & Peck 2010 Pörtner & Peck
30 Ecophysiological niche modeling Species thermal niche model Thermal tolerance -> Validation model! Functional niche <-> Realized niche Pörtner & Peck 2010 Pörtner & Peck
31 Performance modeling -> Services Primary Production O2 CO2 Consumption Respiration Gonad Production Somatic Production Bioturbation Bioirrigation Food Web Benthic Animal / Poplation 6
32 Performance modeling -> Services Primary Production O2 CO2 Consumption Respiration Gonad Production Somatic Production Bioturbation Bioirrigation Food Web Benthic Animal / Poplation We need performance models! 6
33 Performance modeling -> Services Primary Production O2 CO2 Consumption Respiration Gonad Production Somatic Production Bioturbation Bioirrigation Food Web Benthic Animal / Poplation 6
34 Performance modeling -> Services Primary Production O2 CO2 Consumption Respiration Gonad Production Somatic Production Bioturbation Bioirrigation Food Web Benthic Animal / Poplation Respiration model 6
35 Performance modeling -> Services Primary Production O2 CO2 Consumption Respiration Gonad Production Somatic Production Bioturbation Bioirrigation Food Web Benthic Animal / Poplation Production model 6
36 Performance modeling -> Services Primary Production O2 CO2 Consumption Respiration Gonad Production Somatic Production Bioturbation Bioirrigation Food Web Benthic Animal / Poplation Bioturbation model 6
37 Species interaction modeling 7
38 Species interaction modeling Food web model Jacob et al
39 Species interaction modeling Food web model Jacob et al Adv. Ecological Res. 45;
40 Environmental drivers & system response
41 Environmental drivers & system response Land- Ocean- Atmosphere Drivers Models
42 Environmental drivers & system response Land- Ocean- Atmosphere Finite Element Ocean Model (FEOM) Finite Element Sea Ice Ocean Model (FESOM) Drivers Models
43 Environmental drivers & system response Land- Ocean- Atmosphere Finite Element Ocean Model (FEOM) Finite Element Sea Ice Ocean Model (FESOM) Drivers Models Long-Term Ecolog. Data Paleo-Record & Bioarchives Theoretical Ecology
44 Environmental drivers & system response Land- Ocean- Atmosphere Drivers Finite Element Ocean Model (FEOM) Finite Element Sea Ice Ocean Model (FESOM) Macrobenthic diversity (Schröder 2005) Models Long-Term Ecolog. Data Paleo-Record & Bioarchives Theoretical Ecology
45 Environmental drivers & system response Land- Ocean- Atmosphere Drivers Models Finite Element Ocean Model (FEOM) Finite Element Sea Ice Ocean Model (FESOM) Macrobenthic diversity (Schröder 2005) Arctica islandica growth variability (Brey & Schöne unpubl) Long-Term Ecolog. Data Paleo-Record & Bioarchives Theoretical Ecology
46 Environmental drivers & system response Land- Ocean- Atmosphere Drivers Models Finite Element Ocean Model (FEOM) Finite Element Sea Ice Ocean Model (FESOM) Macrobenthic diversity (Schröder 2005) Arctica islandica growth variability (Brey & Schöne unpubl) Long-Term Ecolog. Data Paleo-Record & Bioarchives Theoretical Ecology A Post-Invasion Weddell Sea Food Web (Woodward et al. 2010l)
47 Environmental drivers & system response Land- Ocean- Atmosphere Drivers Models Finite Element Ocean Model (FEOM) Finite Element Sea Ice Ocean Model (FESOM) Macrobenthic diversity (Schröder 2005) Arctica islandica growth variability (Brey & Schöne unpubl) Long-Term Ecolog. Data Paleo-Record & Bioarchives Theoretical Ecology A Post-Invasion Weddell Sea Food Web (Woodward et al. 2010l)
48 Macroecological-/physiological Scenario Generator Land- Ocean- Atmosphere Drivers Dynamic Habitat Models Parameters Geo-Referenced Ecological Niche Models Models Long-Term Ecolog. Data Paleo-Record & Bioarchives Theoretical Ecology Species Performance Models Species Interaction Models ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING Goods & Services
49 Macroecological-/physiological Scenario Generator Land- Ocean- Atmosphere Drivers Dynamic Habitat Models Actual system state Parameters Geo-Referenced Ecological Niche Models Models Long-Term Ecolog. Data Paleo-Record & Bioarchives Theoretical Ecology Cause & effect relationships Species Performance Models Future scenarios Species Interaction Models Hypothesis testing ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING Goods & Services
50 The sediment-water interface challenge Ecosystem Goods & Services Nutrient Remineralization -> Primary Production Carbon Metabolization -> Higher Trophic Levels Processing & Neutralization of Anthropogenic Substances 10
51 The sediment-water interface challenge Ecosystem Goods & Services (c) Aquafact Nutrient Remineralization -> Primary Production Carbon Metabolization -> Higher Trophic Levels Processing & Neutralization of Anthropogenic Substances (c) Aquafact 10
52 The sediment-water interface challenge (c) Aquafact Sediment Oxygen Profile D. Sevilgen unpubl. Ecosystem Goods & Services Nutrient Remineralization -> Primary Production Carbon Metabolization -> Higher Trophic Levels Processing & Neutralization of Anthropogenic Substances (c) Aquafact no infauna infauna cm cm 10
53 The sediment-water interface challenge Ecosystem Goods & Services (c) Aquafact Benthic macrofauna impact? on biogeochemical processes Sediment Oxygen Profile D. Sevilgen unpubl. Nutrient Remineralization -> Primary Production Carbon Metabolization -> Higher Trophic Levels Processing & Neutralization of Anthropogenic Substances (c) Aquafact no infauna infauna cm cm 10
54 Macrobenthic Community The Shelf Sea Benthic Biogeochemical Reactor Ecosystem Goods & Services Nutrient Remineralization -> Primary Production Carbon Metabolization -> Higher Trophic Levels Processing & Neutralization of Anthropogenic Substances
55 Macrobenthic Community The Shelf Sea Benthic Biogeochemical Reactor Ecosystem Goods & Services Nutrient Remineralization -> Primary Production Carbon Metabolization -> Higher Trophic Levels Processing & Neutralization of Anthropogenic Substances
56 Macrobenthic Community POM Turnover & Metabolism Sediment Bioirrigation Bioturbation The Shelf Sea Benthic Biogeochemical Reactor Ecosystem Goods & Services Nutrient Remineralization -> Primary Production Carbon Metabolization -> Higher Trophic Levels Processing & Neutralization of Anthropogenic Substances Biogeochemical Cycling POM & DOM Dynamics System Metabolism
57 Anthropogenic Impact Fisheries Windfarms Macrobenthic Community POM Turnover & Metabolism Sediment Bioirrigation Bioturbation The Shelf Sea Benthic Biogeochemical Reactor Ecosystem Goods & Services Nutrient Remineralization -> Primary Production Carbon Metabolization -> Higher Trophic Levels Processing & Neutralization of Anthropogenic Substances Biogeochemical Cycling POM & DOM Dynamics System Metabolism
58 Anthropogenic CO2 Impact Carbonate Fisheries System Windfarms Primary CO2 + H2O Production <=> H + + HCO3 - Corg <=> 2 H Macrobenthic + + CO3 Community 2- Biomineralization CaCO3 Solution Respiration POM Turnover & Metabolism Sediment Bioirrigation Biogenic Bioturbation Sediments Biogeochemical Cycling Organic Matter Production Food Web The Shelf Sea Benthic Biogeochemical Reactor Ecosystem Goods & Services Nutrient Remineralization -> Primary Production Carbon Metabolization -> Higher Trophic Levels Processing & Neutralization of Anthropogenic Substances POM & DOM Dynamics System Metabolism
59 Anthropogenic CO2 Impact Carbonate Fisheries System Windfarms Primary CO2 + H2O Production <=> H + + HCO3 - Corg <=> 2 H Macrobenthic + + CO3 Community 2- Biomineralization CaCO3 Solution POM Turnover & Metabolism Sediment Bioirrigation Biogenic Bioturbation Sediments Biogeochemical Cycling POM & DOM Dynamics System Metabolism Respiration Organic Matter Production Food Web The Shelf Sea Benthic Biogeochemical Reactor Ecosystem Goods & Services Nutrient Remineralization -> Primary Production Carbon Metabolization -> Higher Trophic Levels Processing & Neutralization of Anthropogenic Substances Regional / Global Biogeochemical Models
60 Regions of interest 15
61 Regions of interest North Sea 15
62 Regions of interest Arctic Ocean North Sea 15
63 Regions of interest Arctic Ocean Weddell Sea North Sea 15
64 Regions of interest Arctic Ocean Weddell Sea North Sea 15
65 Regions of interest Arctic Ocean Weddell Sea North Sea 15
66 Regions of interest Arctic Ocean Weddell Sea North Sea 15
67 Antarctic Weddell Sea Weddell Sea 16
68 Antarctic Weddell Sea Weddell Sea 16
69 Antarctic Weddell Sea Weddell Sea 16
70 Antarctic Weddell Sea MPA Working Group Weddell Sea 16
71 Antarctic Weddell Sea MPA Working Group Weddell Sea 16
72 Arctic Ocean Arctic Ocean 17
73 Arctic Ocean Vision: pan-arctic approach: 1st step: geo-referenced benthic data bank Arctic Ocean 17
74 Arctic Ocean Vision: pan-arctic approach: 1st step: geo-referenced benthic data bank Arctic Ocean 17
75 Arctic Ocean Vision: pan-arctic approach: 1st step: geo-referenced benthic data bank Arctic Ocean Barents Sea macrobenthic production Cooperation IMR Tromsø - AWI 17
76 North Sea North Sea 18
77 North Sea Trawling frequency North Sea 18
78 North Sea Trawling frequency Offshore wind farms North Sea 18
79 North Sea Trawling frequency Infaunal biomass Offshore wind farms North Sea 18
80 North Sea Trawling frequency Infaunal biomass Offshore wind farms North Sea 18
81 13
82 - The End - 13
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