The use of ecological models to assess indicators in support of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive

Transcription

1 The use of ecological models to assess indicators in support of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive Chiara Piroddi Brussels, January 2016

2 Background * EU FP7 project Ocean of Tomorrow : DEVelopment Of innovative Tools for understanding marine biodiversity and assessing Good Environmental Status (DEVOTES) * Goal: Study marine biodiversity and those components of marine food- webs and seafloor integrity for the four EU Seas that relate to impacts of human activities and climate change

3 Paper aims * Review the current capabilities of the modelling community to inform on indicators outlined in the MSFD with a particular emphasis on biodiversity (D1), food webs (D4), non- indigenous species (D2) and seafloor integrity (D6) * Assess which models are able to demonstrate the linkages between indicators and ecosystem structure/function and the impact of pressures on state and thus indicators * Report on gaps in model capability and suggest needs for development

4 Catalogue Structure * Model derived indicator (MDI) * MDI type: 1. Static; 2. Dynamic or 3. Spatial dynamic * State or pressure MDI * MDI target/reference values and unit * MDI status of development: 1. Operational, 2. Under development; 3. Conceptual * Model name and type * Data requirements * Confidence/uncertainty * Source * Model/MDI in relation to MSFD Descriptors (D1 D11) * Model/MDI correspondence with biodiversity components (e.g., phytoplankton and fish) * Model/MDI coverage of specific habitat types and geographical range/scale * Model/MDI relation to specific pressures

5 Results: models * Models: 44 identified * Models types: Hydrodynamic- biogeochemical (36%) End- to- end (18%) Species distribution/habitat suitability (14%) Bio- optical (14%) Multispecies (14%) Biogeochemical (2%) Meta- community (2%) 1/7. Biogeochemical and coupled physical biogeochemical models; 2 and 3 multispecies models (either at species or at food web level); 4. species distribution/habitat Suitability; 5. meta- community models and 6. bio- optical models. E2E models encompass all of them.

6 Results: indicators * Model Derived Indicators (MDI): 201 identified * MDI types: Spatial dynamic (41%) Static (40%) Dynamic (19%) * MDI status of development Operational (64%) Under- development (33%) Conceptual (3%) MDI Major categories Categories Example of MDI % 1 Biomass 57 2 Diversity indicators Trophic level of community 13 3 Physical, hydrological and Phosphate concentration 12 chemical 4 Primary or secondary production 9 5 Spatial distribution Zooplankton distribution range 6 6 Ecological Network Analysis Finn s cycle index 2 7 Species life- history Species mean length and weight 1

7 Results Models in relation to MSFD descriptors Model type Biogeochemical Bio- optical Meta- community Multispecies Hydrodynamic- biogeochemical E2E SDM / Habitat Suitability No MDI Presence MDI High Majority MDI Models/MDI in relation to biodiversity components D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D82. D9 Bacteria D10 D Phytoplankton functional types (Diatoms, Pico, Nano, Flagellates) 3. Bacteria distributional range 21. Population size:- Mnemioplsis leidyi (biomass) Biological diversity Non- indigenous species Commercial fish Food webs Human induced eutrophication Seafloor integrity Hydrological alteration Contaminants 1. Ammonium concentration 19. Phytoplankton distributional range 4. Biomass and production of zooplankton 22. Population size:- Aurelia aurita ( biomass) Contaminants in food Marine litter 5. Biomass of fodder zooplankton 23. Population size:- Noctiluca scinitillans, (biomass) Energy/Noise 6. Chlorophyll- a concentration 24. Primary production 7. Current 25. Ratio fodder zoo/jelly (biomass) 8. Denitrification layer depth (bed) 26. Salinity 9. Eastward_sea_water_velocity 27. Sea water salinity 10. Nitrate concentration 28. Sea water temperature 11. Nutrient concentration variability 29. Sea_surface_height_above_sea_level 12. Oxygen 30. Silicate concentration 13. Oxygen penetration depth (bed) 31. Suspended sediment concentration 14. ph 32. Temperature 15. Phosphate concentration 33. Total benthic oxic respiration 16. Phytoplankton biomass 34. Zoobenthos biomass 17. Phytoplankton biomasss:- diatoms 35. Zooplankton functional types (Meso, Micro, Het. Flagellates) 18. Phytoplankton biomasss:- dinoflagellates 36. Zooplnkton distributional range

8 Models geographical distribution/ spatial coverage Results # Model capabilities to address pressures

9 Conclusions: gaps and development needs * Strong presence of certain models/areas targeted by DEVOTES partners (e.g., Dynamic Energy Budget models not included) * Regarding the DEVOTES Biodiversity related descriptors, D2 is the least assessed and D6 lacks indicators on biogenic substrate/seabed extent * D8, D9, D10, D11 are not addressed by any models * Under development models/indicators are still quite numerous * Not all the models are able to address uncertainty * Target seiings and/or reference values unclear to model developers * Of the existing models, urge the need to improve species diversity (e.g., increase or refine species selections in models), spatial resolutions of selected species/taxa (e.g., spatial coverage not available or still under development for species/taxa), linkages between pressures and ecosystem function * Of the pressures: underwater noise, marine liier, contamination by microbial pathogens and by radionuclides require further development * Data availability is a constraint

10 Current project

11 Current project I II III IV Hindcasting the Mediterranean marine ecosystem using the software Ecopath with Ecosim and Ecospace 100+ functional groups, assigned to the 4 MSFD zones Time frame Entire basin at 0.1 dd grid Piroddi et al. Modelling the Mediterranean marine ecosystem as a whole: addressing the challenge of complexity MEPS 533: 47-65

12 Ecopath for the Med 1. Piscivores cetaceans; 2. Other cetaceans; 3. Pinnipeds; 4. Seabirds; 5. Seaturtles; 6. Large pelagics; 7. Medium pelagics; 8. European pilchard; 9. European anchovy; 10. Other small pelagics; 11. Large demersals; 12. European hake; 13. Medium demersals; 14. Small demersals; 15. Deep fish; 16. Sharks; 17. Rays and skates; 18. Benthopelagic cephalopods; 19. Benthic cephalopods; 20. Bivalves and gastropods; 21. Crustaceans; 22. Jellyfish; 23. Benthos; 24. Zooplankton; 25. Phytoplankton; 26. Seagrass; 27. Detritus; 28. Discards

13 Hindcast: Ecosim Observed biomass data Fish stocks: MEDITS, MEDIAS Pinnipeds: few data points for 1960s, 1970s,1980s and 1990s Sea turtles from 1985 onwards Deep fish and benthic inv.: few data point from 1990s (Wei et al., 2010) Drivers Reconstructed fishing effort ( ; FISHSTAT, GFCM, Sea Around Us Project) Primary production: (GETM- ERGOM, JRC) (POM- ERSEM, HCMR) Modelling the historical impact of environmental and fisheries drivers on the Mediterranean marine ecosystem: an ecosystem based management approach. In prep

14 Hindcast: Ecosim 1 W Biomass (tons*km2) A I E Years

15 Hindcast: Ecospace Layers: 1. Depth; 2. Salinity surface and boiom; 3. SST and boiom; 4. Substratum Constraint: MSFD areas Fishing effort, PP and trophic interactions Entire basin at 0.1 dd grid Modelling the historical impact of environmental and fisheries drivers on the Mediterranean marine ecosystem: an ecosystem based management approach. In prep

16 Environmental responses: Aquamap

17 Giannoulaki et al Mediterranean Sensitive Habitats. DG MARE Specific Contract SI , Final Report, 557 p. Environmental responses: GAM Temperature and Salinity: European pilchard and European anchovy

18 e.g., Whales Computed habitat capacity Whale abundance and distribution

19 Using EwE to support MSFD and EU MSFD descriptors D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 Biodiversity Strategy Indicators Species distribution Species biomass Community distribution Community biomass TL of community Alien species distribution Alien species biomass Prop. Large predatory fish Prop. Piscivorous Top predators/tot biomass Ratio invertebrates/fish Species diversity Keystone index Phytoplankton biomass PP Catch/biomass Biomass commercial species PPR Discards/landings TL of catch Biological diversity Non- indigenous species Commercial fish Food webs Human ind. eutrophication MSFD indicators Potential MSFD indicators PrB K Tot Predators/Tot B Species diversity '0"N 30 0'0"N 50 0'0"N 40 0'0"N 30 0'0"N. 0 0'0" Top predators/tot B High : Low : '0" Species diversity High : 13 Low : '0"E 10 0'0"E 20 0'0"E 20 0'0"E 30 0'0"E 30 0'0"E Years Piroddi et al. An ecosystem- based Piroddi et al. An approach ecosystem- based for the Mediterranean approach for the Sea Mediterranean in support Sea of the in support EU Biodiversity of the EU Biodiversity Strategy Strategy and the and Marine the Marine Strategy Strategy Framework Directive. In preparation Framework Directive. In preparation

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