Climate change and its implications on Baltic Sea marine environment and HELCOM work

Transcription

1 Climate change and its implications on Baltic Sea marine environment and HELCOM work Maria Laamanen, HELCOM Professional Secretary 2nd Policy Forum Climate Change Adaptation in the Baltic Sea Region December 2012 in Stockholm, Sweden

2 Helsinki Commission (HELCOM): bridging science and policy Governing body of Helsinki Convention (1974, 1992) 10 Contracting Parties: Denmark Estonia European Community Finland Germany Latvia Lithuania Poland Russia Sweden Observers: Belarus Ukraine Various organisations HELCOM Secretariat assists and facilitates

3 Ecosystem approach for the Baltic Sea: HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan Adopted in 2007 at the Ministerial level Ecosystem-based approach to management of human activities Ecological goals and objectives Measures and actions for: Eutrophication Hazardous substances Maritime activities Biodiversity and nature conservation Supports implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive Served as the basis of the environmental section of the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region

4 Total reductions needed (tonnes/year) Reductions/ sub-basin (tonnes/year) Reductions/ country (tonnes/year) Kattegat P 0Kattegat P 16 N 20 (31%) 000 (31%) N (30%) Danish Danish Straits Straits P 0 N (33%) P 291 (34%) N (29%) P 242 (45%) N 5621 (27%) Bothnian Sea P 0 N 0 P 0 N 0 Bothnian Bay Bothnian Bay P (42%) N (18%) P (65%) N (29%) Baltic Sea Baltic Proper P 146 (25%) N 1199 (8%) P 8755 (64%) N (29%) P 2000 P 2500 (29%) (37%) N 6000 N 6967 (5%) (8%) Gulf of Finland Gulf of Finland P 222 (18%) N 896 (5%) P 750 (34%) N Gulf 0of Riga P 300 Gulf of (19%) Riga N 2561 (25%) P 881 (66%) N (26%)

5 Status of the BSAP implementation Maritime segment -Implementation through National Implementation Programmes and joint HELCOM and other projects About a third of the actions are completely or nearly accomplished

6 Climate change and HELCOM: HELCOM thematic assessment 2007

7 Findings of importance to HELCOM The globe has been warming (0.05 C/decade) in the past century and the Baltic Sea region has been warming even faster (0.08 C/decade) Decrease in the duration of the ice cover and increase in the lenght of the growing season The projected warming of the mean annual temperature during the 21st century is from 3 to 5 C There is projected to be a general increase in the annual precipitation: It will increase runoff and lead to potentially higher nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea from the drainage area Average salinity of the Baltic Sea is projected to decrease Ecosystem changes are expected: Changes in the distribution of species Changes in functions of the ecosystem

8 What is the status? Eutrophication Chlorophyll a (µg L-1) Secchi (m)

9 Major achievement: Declining N and P loads Downward trend of nutrient loading since the 1980s

10 How effective will the BSAP be in the future climate? Annual mean air temperature was projected to be K higher by 2099 relative to the 1960s-1990s Simulated ensemble averages (+/-1 S.D.) mean surface phosphate and nitrate concentrations Reconstruction Observations Red= BAU, increased loads Yellow= Reference scenario, current loads Blue= Scenario for fully implemented BSAP Meier et al. (2012), Environ. Res. Lett. 7

11 Blue= Scenario for fully implemented BSAP Yellow= Reference scenario, current loads Red= BAU, increased loads

12 Now here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that! The Red Queen and Alice in the Wonderland

13 Pressures on biodiversity are multiple and cumulative

14 Human pressures on the Baltic Sea Human activities put a pressure on the entire sea area

15 What is the status? Biodiversity and nature conservation Status of biodiversity is impoverished in all other parts of the Baltic Sea except the areas in the Gulf of Bothnia and some coastal pockets Status of biodiversity is changing in a direction that is weakening the capacity of the ecosystem to provide valuable goods and services A preliminary integrated classification of biodiversity status of the Baltic Sea

16 We have reached the 10 % target for the regional network of marine protected areas set by the UN CBD COP7 But the current network is not yet ecologically coherent Nor is it wellmanaged Buildings (terrestrial) Constructions (marine) Cables and pipelines Shipping and navigation Fishing Hunting Harvesting Tourism and recreation Traffic infrastructure Military activities Research Aquaculture/mariculture Extraction of resources Dredging Dumping Land based activities Installation of wind-farms Permission needed Restricted Forbidden no. of entries

17 Did the climate assessment have any effect? Yes, it did, the HELCOM thematic assessment on climate change provided the background for the following notions of HELCOM ministers: 2007 BSAP: [We are ] fully aware that climate change will have a significant impact on the Baltic Sea ecosystem requiring even more stringent actions in the future (HELCOM 2007, BSAP) 2010 the HELCOM Moscow Ministerial Meeting Declaration: [Agree ] on the need for supplementary actions and admit that climate change may have profound consequences both for the environmental status of the Baltic Sea as well as for the scope of the measures adopted by the Contracting Parties until now. These supplementary or more stringent actions are yet to be specified in HELCOM

18 Now it s the time to brief the decision makers and consider how policies could change HELCOM Workshop on Baltic Sea region climate change and its implications 5-6 February 2013 in Warnemünde, Germany Will bring together climate change scientists focusing on the Baltic Sea region (BALTEX community), Baltic Sea marine environment related experts and managers, as well as HELCOM observers and other relevant stakeholders The aim is to: 1) Share and discuss the latest updates and findings of scientific research on climate change in the Baltic Sea region and its implications on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. 2) Consider the implications of the climate change projections on the Baltic Sea ecosystem and HELCOM policies especially related to eutrophication and biodiversity. 3) Produce Conclusions of the Workshop to advice HELCOM decision makers on how climate change should be addressed in HELCOM policies.

19 HELCOM Ministerial Meeting in October 2013 is a possibility... to highlight new findings on Climate Change and the Baltic Sea: an updated HELCOM thematic assessment of climate change with proposals for more stringent management actions... to start specifying more stringent and supplementary actions It will be held in October 2013 under the Danish Chairmanship Main themes: Evaluation of the implementation status of the BSAP Scrutiny of the effectiveness of the BSAP national implementation programs Assessment of progress towards good environmental status Based on the above, adjustment of the BSAP and updating of targets

20 Thank you!