Oil transportation in the Baltic Sea and MIMIC project

Transcription

1 Oil transportation in the Baltic Sea and MIMIC project 14 th International Conference Maritime Transport and Infrastructure 2012 Olli-Pekka Brunila UTU/ CMS Riga, Latvia 26 April

2 Content of the Presentation Oil transportation in the Baltic Sea in the year 2010 Oil transportation future scenarios in the Baltic Sea MIMIC project (Minimilizing risks of maritime oil transport by holistic safety strategies). 1

3 Oil transportation development in the Baltic Sea (Source: Baltic Port List 2011) Tonnes Denmark Estonia Finland Germany Latvia Lithuania Poland Russia Sweden Total Year Year Year

4 Top ten ports in the Baltic Sea in Terms of liquid bulk volymes in Source: Baltic Port List 2011

5 Oil transportation future scenarios in the Baltic Sea 2020 and

6 Background for the year 2020 Russia`s energy strategy 2020: Many countries in Baltia and Europe are depending on Russian oil and gas. Russia will increase it s oil production and use new technologies in production BPS-2 (Baltic Pipeline System 2) to Ust-Luga port increase oil cargo volumes Russia transports trough the Gulf of Finland approximately 130 million tonnes of oil. 5

7 Background for the year 2020 EU:n energy- and climate strategy decrease 20 % Greenhouse gases Increase renewable energy 20 % Increase energy efficiency 20 % Increse the share of biofuels by 10 % Emission trading is one EU s key tool. Now trading is in the industry Future trading might be also in transportation sector Sulphur dirctive SECA areas ( inc. Baltic Sea) 1 Jul % and 1 Jan % 6

8 Background for the year 2030 Russia`s energy strategy 2030 Increase the use of renewable energy and increase modern technology in oil production Increase the oil production and search new areas in the Northern Artic In the year 2030 a lot of produced oil goes to China and other part of Asia. New oilpipe is planned from Siberia to Pacific. EU`s energy strategy 2050 Stricter pollution limits for GHG Decarbonisation scenarios CO2 capture Energy efficiency and renewable energy. 7

9 Future scenarios for oil & oil products transportation for up to the years 2020 and 2030 Oil transportation will be increase for up to 2020 BPS-2 to Ust-Luka increase the volume M tonnes/annual Liquid bulk transportation will be decrease for up to 2030 according to Baltic Transport Outlook Increasing transportations in the Baltic Sea and especially in the GoF brings a risk of collasion or grounding. That might cause oil or chemical spils etc. 8

10 Scenarios for the 2030 in the Baltic Sea (Baltic Transport Outlook 2030) Products Total growth M t Total growth per cent (%) Containers Dry bulk Liquid bulk RoRo, trailers RoRo, others Other transportations All transportations Annual growth per cent (%) 9

11 Oil transportation in the Baltic Sea 2020 and Tonnes Denmark Estonia Finland Germany Latvia Lithuania Poland Russia Sweden Total Year Year Year

12 MIMIC project (Minimilizing risks of maritime oil transport by holistic safety strategies) Oil transportation in the Baltic Sea and GoF poses transnational risks to the marine environment also transportations are vulnerable to security threats MIMIC integrates the knowledge from earlier projects and new information on the less studied aspects of accidents Object is to study and compare the different management actions to avoid accidents and to give cost-effectiviness of these measures View the problem both form the point of private companies and society How society can influence the private activities in most effective way to decrease the risks New element is to link the safety and security issues The main deliverables are an Integrative Probabilistic Model for comparing the management actions and SmartResponse Web application for decision analysis and support. Duration 1 May December 2013, budget

13 MIMIC-project (WP 2 CMS) WP 2 Task 1: produces information about the growth scenarios of maritime traffic, and detailed information about ships sailing in the Gulf of Finland and northern Baltic Proper, to be combined in the enhanced database which will be used as a source for data for the integrative model created in WP4. To do present situation and scenarios for the years 2020 and 2030 in the GoF Future scenarios will be used in the project e.g. to formulation of accident probabilities, environmental impacts and effectiveness of risk control options in future Task 3: Crew competence, The goal is to find out how ships that move in the Baltic Sea are manned: amount of crew, education and experience, flag state etc. The information about crews enables more accurate picture about shipping and human factor related deficiencies in the Baltic Sea. 12

14 MIMIC-project Consortium members in this project are: Kotka Maritime Research Centre, Centre for Maritime Studies at the, Kymenlaakso University of Applied Sciences, Aalto University, University of Helsinki, Tallinn University of Technology, University of Tartu, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and Finnish Environment Institute. 13