Nya beting för Baltic Sea Action Plan. Bo Gustafsson och medarbetare på BNI

Transcription

1 Nya beting för Baltic Sea Action Plan Bo Gustafsson och medarbetare på BNI

2 ü Klart va(en ü Närsaltkoncentra1oner nära naturliga nivåer ü Naturlig omfa(ning av algblomningar ü Naturliga fördelningar av Basin& växter Winter& och djur Summer& ü Naturliga KT& 5.0& 0.49& 1.5& 7.6& syrgaskoncentra1oner DIN& DIP& Chl&a& Secchi& DS&!! 5.0& 0.56& Max.!allow.!inputs 1.9& 7.8& BP& 2.6& 0.30& TN! 1.7& TP!! 7.4& BS& PHOSPHORUS Country( 2.8& 0.19& 1.5& 6.8& tons! tons! BB& 5.2& 0.07& 2.0& 5.8& KT GR& 5.2& 0.41& 73, & 1, & GF& DS 3.8& 0.59& 65, & 1, & BP 325,000 7,360 & Phosphorus( Total Denmark DK( 38( 40 Estonia EE( 320( 348 Finland FI( 360((330+30)( 339 Germany DE( 170((110+60)( 217 Latvia LV( 220( 425 Lithuania LT( 1470( 1,492 Poland PL( 7480( 7,809 Russia 3,953 RU( 3790( Sweden 570 SE( 530( BalIcKSeaKtotal 15,195 BS 79,372 2,773 BB 57,622 2,675 GR 88,417 2,020 GF 101,800 3,600 BalDc!Sea 791,682 21,716 ( Miljömål Målnivåer Maximal belastning Reduk1ons- be1ng Poli1k Vetenskap: BNI DK, FI, SE Vetenskap: BNI SE Poli1k Vetenskap: BNI SE

3 Vad är nytt? Nya målnivåer är framtagna på ett enhetligt och konsistent sätt Bättre modell (BALTSEM) för beräkning av maximal belastning Bättre data på belastning (PLC 5.5) Normerad belastning för att särskilja naturliga variationer från antropogena trender Hänsyn tas till näringstillförsel både från land och atmosfär

4 Miljömål Krakow declara1on 2007 Roadmap for revision in Moscow declara1on 2010 Tid Målnivåer Reduk1ons- be1ng Maximal belastning HOD Dec HOD June 2013 Ministermöte Oct 2013

5 Förankring på alla nivåer I HELCOM Expert/scien1fic Poli1cal/management Sekretariatet LOAD core group LOAD PLC 5.5 (belastnings- data) BNI s sfär MONAS HOD/ Kommission Ministermöte TARGREV Målnivåer CORE- EUTRO JAB/GEAR

6 Resolution Targets and MAI calculated on 7 basins

7 Environmental targets An ambi1ous scien1fic founda1on from the HELCOM TARGREV project New targets on winter nutrient concentra1ons, summer Secchi depth and Chl- a concentra1on; plus targets on oxygen levels Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 133 Approaches and methods for eutrophication target setting in the Baltic Sea region Basin& Winter& Summer& DIN& DIP& Chl&a& Secchi& KT& 5.0& 0.49& 1.5& 7.6& DS& 5.0& 0.56& 1.9& 7.8& BP& 2.6& 0.30& 1.7& 7.4& BS& 2.8& 0.19& 1.5& 6.8& BB& 5.2& 0.07& 2.0& 5.8& GR& 5.2& 0.41& 2.7& 5.0& GF& 3.8& 0.59& 2.0& 5.5& & + targets on oxygen Helsinki Commission Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission

8 Method to determine Maximum Allowable Inputs Question to be answered is: What combination of loads to the basins satisfies both targets and provides the maximal loads? -> optimization problem 1. Determine relationships between loads and indicator response from a large amount (1000nds) of cleaverly chosen model simulations 2. Find the solution to the optimization problem from the data base of relationships Additional constrains that need to be considered are: model limitations and ecological relevance

9 Maximum allowable inputs and needed reductions Baltic Sea Sub-basin Maximum Allowable Inputs Reference inputs Needed reductions TN tons TP tons TN tons TP tons TN tons Kattegat 74,000 1,687 78,761 1,687 4,761 0 Danish Straits 65,998 1,601 65,998 1, TP tons Baltic Proper 325,000 7, ,921 18,320 98,921 10,960 Bothnian Sea 79,372 2,773 79,372 2, Bothnian Bay 57,622 2,675 57,622 2, Gulf of Riga 88,417 2,020 88,417 2, Gulf of Finland 101,800 3, ,252 7,509 14,452 3,909 Baltic Sea 792,209 21, ,343 36, ,134 15,177

10 Do we reach the GES as defined by the targets Green targets are fulfilled Light green insignificantly above target Red target violated Basin KT DS BP BS BB GR GF Winter Summer Oxygen DIN DIP Chl(a Secchi debt Comments: Red for DIP in BS is due to model bias BB and GR are strongly phosphorus limited, thus nitrogen targets are less relevant, winter DIN targets would be reached if reduc1ons of about and tons, respec1vely were implemented Winter nutrients are jointly giving a GES according to the HEAT assessment in GF

11 When will Baltic Sea be healthy? Long 1me before targets are reached (up to 100 years) Significant improvement within decades, perhaps even shorter Winter DIP in BP Nitrogen fixa1on in GF MAI is implemented year 0 An ensemble of 10 runs with different weather indicates variability Red: MAI, Grey: Reference inputs

12 Needed reduc(on given by the difference between the total loads to the basin and the MAI plus expected reduc(ons from non- HELCOM Total load to the basin Total basin load With expected reduc1ons Needed reduction Atm dep, expected MAI

13 Allocation principles How the shares on inputs from different Contracting Parties to a Baltic Sea sub-basin are determined Example Nitrogen Baltic proper

14 Allocation principles The CART is determined by multiplying the need reduction with the shares X =

15 The Country-basin catchments Inputs are primarily assigned to the country doing the monitoring (owning the river mouth) Major rivers carry nutrients from upstream countries (transboundary inputs) The fulfillment of redcu1on requirements may therefore be shared with the countries upstream

16 Allocation also on non-helcom countries Example GOR Phosphorus Before alloca1on only atmospheric P load is subtracted. Other'Atm' 4%' CART: The reduc1on is shared between the coastal states, EE and LV Transboundary sharing among both CPs and BY of LV s reduc1on requirement EE" 12%" LV" 88%" RU" 10%" LT" 9%" BY" 41%" LV" 28%" HELCOM' 96%' Needed reduc1on 308 ton

17 Nitrogen BP GF KT ALL DK EE FI DE LV LT PL RU SE Gothenburg+Protocol+ expected+reduction+in+ non+contracting parties Expected+reduction+ shipping BY CZ UA Sum Phosphorus BP GF GR Sum DK EE FI DE LV LT PL RU SE BY CZ UA Sum

18 Hur långt har vi kommit sedan ? Figure 7. Changes in nitrogen and phosphorus inputs since the reference period to (average of three year normalized inputs) for sub-basins with reduction requirements. Phosphorus inputs to Gulf of Riga have increased with nearly 400 tonnes. Reduction from non-contracting Parties is related to reduced atmospheric deposition.

19 WE WELCOME that the provisional nutrient reduction scheme of the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan has been reviewed and revised based on a new and more complete dataset as well as an improved modeling approach and revised harmonized eutrophication status targets, which resulted in the following Maximum Allowable Inputs; Baltic Sea Sub-basin Maximum Allowable Inputs Reference inputs Needed reductions TN, tons TP, tons TN, tons TP, tons TN, tons TP, tons Kattegat 74,000 1,687 78,761 1,687 4,761 0 Danish Straits 65,998 1,601 65,998 1, HELCOM Copenhagen Ministerial Declaration Baltic Proper 325,000 7, ,921 18,320 98,921 10,960 Bothnian Sea 79,372 2,773 79,372 2, Bothnian Bay 57,622 2,675 57,622 2, WE RECOGNIZE Gulf of Riga that the revised 88,417 Maximum 2,020 Allowable 88,417 Inputs 2,328 represent 0 best 308 available scientific Gulf of Finland 101,800 3, ,252 7,509 14,452 3,909 knowledge base and data, and characterize the HELCOM long-term vision of the Baltic Sea Baltic Sea 792,209 21, ,344 36, ,134 15,178 unaffected WE RECOGNIZE by eutrophication that the revised that we Maximum aspire; Allowable Inputs represent best available scientific knowledge base WE RECOGNIZE and data, that and the revised characterize Maximum Allowable the HELCOM Inputs represent long-term best available vision scientific WE ARE COMMITTED to implement nutrient reductions to improve the environmental of the Baltic status Sea of unaffected by knowledge eutrophication base and that data, we and aspire; characterize the HELCOM long-term vision of the Baltic Sea eutrophied Baltic unaffected Sea by sub-basins eutrophication including that we aspire; coastal areas, even if the modelling approach taken did not establish reduction requirements for these areas 1 ; WE ARE COMMITTED to implement nutrient reductions to improve the environmental status of eutrophied Baltic Sea sub-basins including coastal areas, even if the modelling approach taken did not establish reduction requirements for these areas 1 ; WE WELCOME the overall progress in reducing phosphorus and nitrogen inputs to the Baltic Sea and RECONFIRM WE WELCOME the goal the overall of the progress Baltic in Sea reducing Action phosphorus Plan and to nitrogen reach inputs good to the environmental Baltic Sea status by WE NOTE, and RECONFIRM however, the that goal the of the Baltic Sea Action is still Plan affected to reach by good eutrophication environmental status and by that, while due WE NOTE, however, that the Baltic Sea is still affected by eutrophication and that, while due to natural processes to natural processes it may it take may take a long a long time time before before the the HELCOM HELCOM eutrophication eutrophication objectives are objectives are reached, modeling reached, indicates modeling indicates that significant that improvement is expected is expected to take place to take rapidly place and rapidly and immediately after immediately reaching after reaching the Maximum the Allowable Inputs; With this background, WE RECOGNIZE that in order to reach the ecological objectives of the Baltic Sea Action Plan by 2021, HELCOM Contracting States need to confront the continuing challenge to further cut their discharges and emissions to the marine environment and that the challenge is likely to be further exacerbated due to the expected impacts of climate changes on the Baltic Sea basin; With this background, WE RECOGNIZE that in order to reach the ecological objectives of the Baltic Sea Action Plan by 2021, HELCOM Contracting States need to confront the continuing challenge to further cut their discharges and emissions to the marine environment and that the challenge is likely to be further exacerbated due to the expected impacts of climate changes on the Baltic Sea basin; WE AGREE that the following revised Country Allocated Reduction Targets (CARTs), covering

20 WE AGREE that the following revised Country Allocated Reduction Targets (CARTs), covering both pollution from land and airborne, substitute the provisional country-wise nutrient reduction requirements of the Baltic Sea Action Plan: Nitrogen Phosphorus Denmark Estonia Finland * * Germany * * Latvia Lithuania Poland Russia 10380* 3790* Sweden The figures are rounded WE DECIDE WE to DECIDE take strong to take strong actions to to reduce the the nutrient nutrient inputs from inputs HELCOM from countries HELCOM further, countries further, to reach good environmental status, to included national implementation programmes, river to reach good basin environmental management plans status, and schemes to be as well included as programmes in national of measures implementation by 2016, and jointly programmes, river basin management address common plans challenges, and schemes including as through well sub-regional as programmes and bilateral of projects, measures well by as 2016, and jointly develop additional reduction measures as needed based cost-efficiency to be in place by 2020; address common challenges, including through sub-regional and bilateral projects, as well as develop additional reduction measures as needed based on cost-efficiency to be in place by 2020; 1 Finland s view is that according to HELCOM assessment open parts of the Bothnian Sea, Åland Sea and the Archipelago Sea are eutrophied and need reduction of nutrient levels, although BALTSEM model did not establish nutrient input reduction requirements to the drainage basins of these sea areas. Finland will address water protection measures to the drainage basins of these areas in its national plans; 2 At this point in time Poland accepts the Polish Country Allocated Reduction Targets as indicative due to the ongoing national consultations, and confirms their efforts to finalize these consultations as soon as possible. * Reduction requirements stemming from German contribution to the river Odra inputs, based on ongoing modeling approaches with MONERIS; Finnish contribution to inputs from river Neva catchment (via Vuoksi river) these figures include Russian contribution to inputs through Daugava, Nemunas and Pregolya rivers The figures for transboundary inputs originating in the Contracting Parties and discharged to the Baltic Sea through other Contracting Parties are preliminary and require further discussion within relevant transboundary water management bodies;

21 WE STRESS that the achievement of good environmental status in relation to eutrophication in the Baltic Sea also relies on additional reduction efforts by non-contracting Parties as follows: tons of airborne nitrogen from non-contracting Parties assuming full implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone of the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution until 2020; tons of waterborne nitrogen and 800 tons of waterborne phosphorus from non-contracting Parties assuming that they take the same responsibility to reduce as the Contracting Parties, RECALLING the decision of the Moscow Ministerial Meeting on reduction of air-borne nitrogen pollution from shipping which will lead to the reduction of 6930 tons on nitrogen over thirty years WE ALSO STRESS that the achievement of good environmental status in relation to eutrophication in the Baltic Sea also relies on additional reduction efforts by shipping; THEREFORE WE AGREE that transboundary pollution originating in the non-contracting States should be addressed by initiating joint activities e.g. by bi- and/or multilateral projects and through other existing funding mechanisms as well as by international agreements such as the 1992 UNECE Convention on Transboundary Waters and Lakes, and the River Basin Management Plans of the EU Water Framework Directive for HELCOM Contracting States being also EU Member States; WE APPRECIATE the upcoming scientific background report "Revision of the maximum allowable inputs and country allocation scheme of HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan", NOTING that it contains in particular a more detailed overview of the airborne and waterborne contributions of the Contracting and non-contracting Parties to form the basis for a detailed follow-up of the achievement of the reduction targets set above, and AGREE that this process needs to be further developed based on the best available scientific knowledge, NOTING that for those HELCOM Contracting Parties being also EU Members States it would need to be compatible with the requirements of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive; RECOGNIZING that reductions in nutrient inputs in sub-basins may have wide-spread effects, WE AGREE that extra reductions can be accounted for, in proportion to the effect on a neighboring basin with reduction targets, by the countries in reaching their Country Allocated Reduction Targets; RECOGNIZING that reductions in nutrient inputs in sub-basins may have wide-spread effects, WE AGREE that extra reductions can be accounted for, in proportion to the effect on a neighboring basin with reduction targets, by the countries in reaching their Country Allocated Reduction Targets; WE SUPPORT development of environmentally sound approaches to remove the nutrients before they enter inland waters and the sea, and to address the internal loading, in coastal areas and semi-enclosed lagoons, as well as in the open sea; WE AGREE to monitor and evaluate regularly the progress in implementing the measures; WE RECALL and CONFIRM WE RECALL and that CONFIRM there is that a there need is a for need review for of nutrient reduction reduction scheme based scheme on based on best available scientific best available knowledge scientific as knowledge necessary; as necessary; Finally, WE AGREE to fully implement the 2007 Baltic Sea Action Plan by With this Declaration with its general and specific approaches, actions and measures WE FURTHER AGREE to step up efforts for further strengthened implementation of the BSAP WE NOTE WITH APPRECIATION the following further general and specific approaches, actions and measures. WE WILL continuously REVIEW and REPORT how these commitments are implemented.

22 Läs mer bakgrundsdokument till Ministermötet ( Summary report on the development of revised Maximum Allowable Inputs (MAI) and updated Country Allocated Reduction Targets (CART) of the Baltic Sea Action Plan Extended Summary of Update of 5th Pollution Load Compilation of water and airborne nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea (PLC-5.5) Revision of the Maximum Allowable Inputs and Country Allocation Scheme of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (Kommer i slutet av november i BNIs rapportserie)