India: LNG Sector Overview

Transcription

1 India: LNG Sector Overview Seminar LNG Opportunities in India Norwegian Offerings Mumbai, 9 th February 2018

2 Agenda LNG Consumption, Demand Forecast LNG / Gas Infrastructure Key Issues 2

3 LNG Demand Forecast Europe LNG being pushed into Europe in Declining domestic production requires increasing LNG imports in the later years Americas MENA Pipeline gas imports from US to Mexico reduces LNG import requirements, while the newer importers such as Uruguay and Colombia push up LNG demand Asia Reform of subsidized domestic gas prices allows for further LNG imports Growing LNG demand as domestic gas production cannot keep up with requirement. Potential new demand creation during period of low prices. Note: The above units are all in mmt of LNG. Source :FGE 10 3

4 mmt mmt Asia LNG Demand Forecast 60 Established Asian Markets LNG Demand Growth (base year ) 50 New Asian Markets LNG Demand Growth (base year ) Japan South Korea Taiwan India China Thailand Bangladesh Malaysia Vietnam Indonesia Pakistan Singapore Chinaand India account for the bulk of incremental growth in established Asian markets. In new Asianmarkets, incremental growth is seen across the board, with Pakistanand potentialnew entrant Bangladesh driving it. 11 Source :FGE 4

5 Overview Indian Gas Sector Primary Energy Mix-India mtoe (P*) P*:Provisional 80 Others Coal Natural Gas Oil Gas share in India energy basket increased from 5.6% to 10.2% during ; However its share fell during Decline in domestic Gas production & high price of LNG As per IEA, India gas demand growth is 4.6% p.a. up to 2040 Gas share in India energy mix to rise to 20% by 2025 as per GOI vision 2030 Source : BP Stats

6 Gas Demand & Supply Bulk of gas demand is projected to be from the fertilizer sector, followed up by the power sector. But Power sector demand is contingent on policy decision. RLNG ( and thereby LNG imports) are imperative to bridge the demand supply deficit Latent demand not captured Source : PPAC 6

7 LNG Imports Trend 25 mmtpa High High Oil Oil Prices Prices Low Low Oil Oil Prices Prices Rising trend in Oil Prices (P) (P): Provisional Source : IGU 2017/ PPAC 7

8 LNG / Gas Infrastructure

9 Gas Infrastructure Existing Natural Gas Pipeline Network Mundra S-HPCL Company Length (KM) Capacity (MMSCMD) GAIL Reliance RGTL GSPCL AGC IOCL ONGC 24 6 RGPL Total Swan Dahej Hazira Digha Dhamra Natural Gas Pipelines under execution/construction Dabhol H-Energy Kochi Kakinada Ennore Company Length (KM) Capacity (MMSCMD) GAIL GITL GIGL APGDC KEI-RSOS PEPL Total

10 Gas Infrastructure LNG import Terminal Sr No Terminal Capacity (MMTPA) Comment 1 PLL Dahej existing 15.0 Operational 2 Shell Hazira 5.0 Operational 3 RGPPL Dabhol 3.5 Operational 4 PLL Kochi 5.0 Operational Sub Total 28.5 Under Execution / Expansion 1 Dahej Expansion 2.5 FY 19 Completion 2 GSPC LNG, Mundra 5.0 FY 18 Completion 3 IOC Ennore 5.0 FY 18 completion 4 HPCL Shapoorji Energy pvt.ltd., Chhara 5.0 FY 20 completion 5 Swan Energy-Jafrabad FSRU 5.0 FY 20 completion 6 H-Energy West coast terminal, Jaigarh 4.0 FY 20 completion Sub Total 26.5 Expected Capacity by Proposed/Planned 1 GAIL, Kakinada 3.5 Prospective 2 East Coast terminal, Digha, 3.0 Prospective 3 Adani Enterprises, Dhamra 5.0 Prospective 4 Mumbai Port 5.0 Prospective Sub Total

11 Key Issues

12 Key Issues Unbundling of Gas-Sector Provide incentives to private player to enter Availability of Gas at Point of use Promotion of Gas in automotive sector Competition Consumer Inadequate pipeline grid Location of LNG terminals CNG stations inadequate LNG dispensing Unit promotion LCNG stations promotion Infrastructure Gas Market Supply Pricing Limited domestic Gas availability Dependence on LNG import Volatility of prices Benchmark HUB Regulation based pricing Market driven Policies Mandated use of Gas Open access of Pipeline & Terminals Rationalization of taxes, duties & levies - GST Review of City gas distribution contracts 12

13 Thank You