CONTENTS PART A TABLE OF GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PART B SPECIAL FOCUS ON NATURAL GAS PART C CHINA ENERGY OUTLOOK ANNEXES

Transcription

1 TABLE OF CONTENTS PART A PART B GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS SPECIAL FOCUS ON NATURAL GAS PART C CHINA ENERGY OUTLOOK ANNEXES

2 INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE 1 OVERVIEW 2 ENERGY, EMISSIONS AND UNIVERSAL ACCESS 3 OUTLOOK FOR OIL 4 OUTLOOK FOR COAL 5 POWER MARKETS AND ELECTRIFICATION 6 ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK 7 OUTLOOK FOR NATURAL GAS 8 THE NEW GAS ORDER 9 THE ENVIRONMENTAL CASE FOR NATURAL GAS 10 NATURAL GAS IN A CHANGING ENERGY WORLD 11 ENERGY IN CHINA TODAY 12 OUTLOOK FOR CHINA S ENERGY DEMAND 13 OUTLOOK FOR CHINA S ENERGY SUPPLY AND INVESTMENT 14 GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS OF ENERGY POLICY REFORMS IN CHINA 15 ANNEXES

3 Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 Executive Summary 23 Part A: Global Energy Trends 31 1 Introduction and scope The scenarios Developing the scenarios Inputs to the modelling International prices and technology costs 51 2 Overview How much energy does the world need, and where? Where now for energy in the United States? What does China s energy revolution mean for its energy outlook, and for the world? What is the next move for energy-related CO 2 emissions? How much do energy policies matter? Are new technologies bringing us closer to universal access to electricity? Is natural gas a fuel in good shape for the future? Can oil prices stay lower for much longer? Is the future switching towards electricity? Is offshore energy yesterday s news or tomorrow s headlines? Energy, emissions and universal access Introduction Recent trends and developments Trends in the New Policies Scenario Outlook for energy access Outlook for energy-related GHG emissions Outlook for energy-related air pollution The Sustainable Development Scenario Background World Energy Outlook 2017

4 3.4.2 Methodology and key assumptions Trends in the Sustainable Development Scenario What does it take to achieve a faster low-carbon energy transition? Outlook for oil Recent market and policy developments Trends by scenario Market dynamics to Long-term scenarios to A closer look at the New Policies Scenario Demand Supply Refining Trade and oil security Investment Outlook for coal Recent market and policy developments Trends to 2040 by scenario Market dynamics to Long-term scenarios to A closer look at the New Policies Scenario Demand Supply Regional insights Power markets and electrification Recent market developments Electricity demand Trends to 2040 by scenario Electrification: changing sources of growth Electricity demand and economic growth Electricity supply Recent policy developments Power generation capacity Investment Electricity generation 256 Table of Contents 17

5 6.3.5 Fossil-fuel consumption in power Power sector CO 2 and pollutant emissions Technology costs and competitiveness Support for renewables-based electricity Power generation costs and electricity prices Energy efficiency and renewable energy Introduction Energy efficiency Current status Outlook for energy efficiency Renewables Current status Outlook for renewables Some implications Investments in renewables and energy efficiency The impact of renewables and energy efficiency on import bills Interlinkages between energy efficiency and renewables Demand-side response: a meeting point for energy efficiency and variable renewables-based electricity Efficient supply of clean industrial heat Expanding building energy codes to cover renewables The multiple benefits of a joint approach 326 Part B: Special Focus on Natural Gas Outlook for natural gas Recent market and policy developments Trends to 2040 by scenario Market dynamics to Long-term scenarios to A closer look at the New Policies Scenario Demand Supply Regional demand and supply insights Trade and investment World Energy Outlook 2017

6 9 The new gas order Introduction The US shale storm and its repercussions Production Implications for North America Implications for global market dynamics The emergence of a new gas order Pricing of gas Contracts in gas trade Investments and security of supply Affordability of gas What underpins our New Policies Scenario? The environmental case for natural gas The environmental credentials of natural gas Assessing the environmental credentials of natural gas Methane emissions: how big is the problem? Methane emissions from the energy sector Methane emissions from oil and gas operations Tackling methane emissions Costs and benefits of action on methane emissions Marginal abatement cost curves Climate impacts of methane emissions abatement Summary of costs and benefits An agenda for action Natural gas in a changing energy world Introduction Historical perspectives on coal-to-gas switching Natural gas use in the New Policies Scenario Analysis by sector and region Limits to the environmental contribution of gas Natural gas in the Sustainable Development Scenario Analysis by sector and region Trade and investment Decarbonising gas supply 466 Table of Contents 19

7 Part C: China Energy Outlook Energy in China today Introducing the special focus on China Energy trends in China today Energy demand Focus on energy in China s regions and provinces China and global energy markets Factors affecting China s energy development Economic transition Demographics and urbanisation Environment Investment Energy governance and policies Outlook for China s energy demand China: shifting gears Overview Trends by fuel End-use sectors Industry Transport Buildings Power sector Background Trends in the New Policies Scenario Power sector reforms Environmental implications Energy-related CO 2 emissions Energy-related air pollution Outlook for China s energy supply and investment Overview of key supply and investment trends Coal Market structure and regulation Outlook for coal World Energy Outlook 2017

8 14.3 Oil Market structure and reform Outlook for oil Oil trade and refining Natural gas Market structure and reform Gas imports Renewables Bioenergy Hydropower Solar Wind Geothermal Nuclear Investment Global implications of energy policy reforms in China Introduction A recap of key trends in the New Policies Scenario Demand trends CO 2 emissions trends Key milestones reached in the New Policies Scenario What if the macroeconomic transition is slower? Macroeconomic transition in the New Policies Scenario Implications of a slower economic transition Conclusions What if the clean energy transition is faster? A possible pathway to a cleaner energy sector China s investment needs in the Sustainable Development Scenario Conclusions Global implications of China s energy development Oil, gas and coal markets Low-carbon technologies 636 Table of Contents 21

9 Annexes 639 Annex A. Tables for scenario projections 641 A.1. Fossil fuel production and demand by region 644 A.2. Energy demand, gross electricity generation and electrical capacity, and carbon-dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion by region 648 A.3. Global emissions of pollutants by energy sector and fuel 724 Annex B. Policies and measures by scenario 727 Annex C. Definitions 739 Annex D. References World Energy Outlook 2017

10 List of figures Part A: Global Energy Trends Figures for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope 1.1 Global energy-related CO 2 emissions Change in total primary energy production and demand in IEA member countries relative to the Middle East, Evolution of China policy targets and projections for solar PV installed capacity, and solar PV levelised costs, in selected WEOs Range of prices paid by consumers for final energy, Average IEA crude oil import price by scenario and case Natural gas prices by key region in the New Policies Scenario Steam coal prices by key region in the New Policies Scenario Evolution of global average cost for selected technologies in the New Policies Scenario 60 Figures for Chapter 2: Overview 2.1 Modern primary energy demand per capita by scenario Share of IEA members and Association countries in world primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario US oil and gas production in the New Policies Scenario Rise in US tight oil to 2025 in the New Policies Scenario US net fossil fuel trade by fuel in the New Policies Scenario Concentration of PM 2.5 in China in the New Policies Scenario Contribution of China to change in fossil-fuel demand and low-carbon generation in the New Policies Scenario, China net fossil-fuel trade by fuel in the New Policies Scenario World primary energy demand by fuel and energy-related CO 2 emissions by scenario Contribution of energy efficiency and renewables to global reductions in energy-related CO 2 emissions by scenario Share of variable renewables in power generation in selected regions by scenario Estimated value of global fossil-fuel consumption subsidies Population without access to electricity in the New Policies Scenario Cumulative population gaining access to electricity in the New Policies Scenario and the Energy for All Case, Growth in natural gas demand by sector and by region in the New Policies Scenario, Global gas trade by mode in the New Policies Scenario Change in world oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario Powertrain cost comparison of conventional and electric cars in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario, Global end-user energy expenditure by fuel and by scenario Cumulative global energy investment by scenario, Global offshore production and generation by scenario Average annual offshore energy investment by scenario I World Energy Outlook 2017

11 Figures for Chapter 3: Energy, emissions and universal access 3.1 People without access to electricity and clean cooking facilities Change in global economic output, energy-related CO 2 and air pollutant emissions Number of people without electricity access by region in the New Policies Scenario Premature deaths from household air pollution and population lacking access to clean cooking in the New Policies Scenario Three speeds of CO 2 emissions growth in the New Policies Scenario CO 2 emissions per capita for selected regions in the New Policies Scenario CO 2 emissions from oil use in transport and coal use in power generation in the New Policies Scenario Annual CO 2 emissions growth by sector and by fuel in the New Policies Scenario Change in air pollutants emissions by region and premature deaths from outdoor air pollution in the New Policies Scenario, Global energy demand and air pollutant emissions by sector in the New Policies Scenario Connecting individual policy targets in the Sustainable Development Scenario The Sustainable Development Scenario relative to other recent decarbonisation scenarios Impacts of the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, Shares of population exposed to various PM 2.5 concentrations by WHO interim targets/guidelines in selected regions by scenario Global CO 2 emissions reductions in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios Air pollutant emissions savings by policy area in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, Key indicators for India in the Clean Energy Ambition Case and the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios Fossil-fuel demand by scenario and decline by sector in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, Power generation by source (left) and installed capacity (right) in the Sustainable Development Scenario, Cumulative investment needs by sector in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios, Fossil-fuel import bill savings in importing regions in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, Deployment levels of electric cars and solar PV by scenario Additional average annual investment needs and changes in energy demand in the Faster Transition Scenario relative to the Sustainable Development Scenario 151 Figures for Chapter 4: Outlook for oil 4.1 Difference in oil demand by sector in the Low Oil Price Case relative to the New Policies Scenario Changes in oil production by region in the New Policies Scenario and Low Oil Price Case 160 Table of Contents 20-II

12 4.3 Change in global oil demand by sector in the Sustainable Development Scenario, Change in global oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario Global road freight fuel demand by vehicle category in the New Policies Scenario Global GDP, total primary energy demand, CO 2 emissions and chemicals demand trajectories in the New Policies Scenario Change in global oil product demand for petrochemical feedstock in the New Policies Scenario Potential additional impact of material efficiency improvements on oil demand for plastics production, Change in global oil product demand in the New Policies Scenario, Change in non-opec and OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario Reductions in the capital cost per barrel for developing conventional oil projects Evolution of average capital cost per barrel for conventional oil projects by scenario US tight liquids production in the New Policies Scenario Deepwater and ultra-deepwater production by region in the New Policies Scenario Change in crude oil trade by region in the New Policies Scenario US oil net trade balance in the New Policies Scenario Change in crude export availability in the Middle East in the New Policies Scenario Asia Pacific crude oil imports and the Middle East s export availability in the New Policies Scenario days oil demand and stockholding coverage of IEA member countries in the New Policies Scenario 198 Figures for Chapter 5: Outlook for coal 5.1 Global coal demand and share of coal in world primary energy demand by scenario Average OECD steam coal import price and global coal trade by scenario Incremental coal demand by key sector and region in the New Policies Scenario Global trade by coal type in the New Policies Scenario Average FOB cash costs for global seaborne steam coal trade and Richard s Bay FOB coal price Delivered cost of coal and natural gas to different power systems in the United States Auction results for solar PV in India FOB cash costs for global seaborne steam coal trade Change in net coal imports by key region in the New Policies Scenario, III World Energy Outlook 2017

13 Figures for Chapter 6: Power markets and electrification 6.1 Global power generation capacity additions for fossil fuels, wind power and solar PV Evolution of electricity demand in the three WEO scenarios Annual average growth of final energy demand historically and in the New Policies Scenario Electricity demand by end-use in the New Policies Scenario Relationship between electricity intensity of the economy and income, historically and in the New Policies Scenario Installed power generation capacity by type in the New Policies Scenario Share of renewables in total capacity additions by region in the New Policies Scenario, Global average annual capacity additions and retirements by technology in the New Policies Scenario, Top-five regions by installed capacity of nuclear power plants in the New Policies Scenario Global annual average power sector investment and cumulative investment to 2040 in the New Policies Scenario Average project cost, number of projects and capacity additions historically and projected in the New Policies Scenario Total electricity generation by region in 2016 and growth to 2040 in the New Policies Scenario Electricity generation by existing and new power plants by type in the New Policies Scenario Share of total generation by type worldwide and in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Decoupling of global GDP growth and fossil-fuel consumption in electricity generation in the New Policies Scenario Share of coal consumption by technology in electricity and heat production in the New Policies Scenario Gas consumption in electricity generation with and without projected efficiency gains over time in the New Policies Scenario Global power sector CO 2 emissions by fuel in the New Policies Scenario Reduction of power sector CO 2 emissions in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario from 2016 to Pollutant emissions in the power sector by fuel with and without enhanced pollution controls in the New Policies Scenario Historical and projected levelised costs of electricity by selected technology in the New Policies Scenario Indicative annual costs and revenue needs for batteries and gas GTs in the United States and European Union, Renewables-based electricity support and cumulative total generation in the New Policies Scenario Share of supported wind and solar PV generation by mechanism type in the New Policies Scenario Average power generation costs by region in the New Policies Scenario Average industry electricity prices by region and cost component in the New Policies Scenario Average household electricity prices by region in the New Policies Scenario End-user energy expenditure in the New Policies Scenario 280 Table of Contents 20-IV

14 Figures for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency and renewable energy 7.1 Share of global final energy consumption covered by mandatory efficiency regulations by sector Global energy intensity reduction by scenario Average annual change in final energy consumption in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario, Energy intensity and energy use per capita in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Avoided final energy demand in 2040 due to energy efficiency policies by fuel, sector and region in the New Policies Scenario Avoided industrial electricity use in motor systems by region and measure in the New Policies Scenario, Residential LED stock and lighting electricity demand in the New Policies Scenario Renewable energy use by sector from a consumer perspective and by region in the New Policies Scenario Renewable energy use by sector and source in the New Policies Scenario Solar PV and solar thermal rooftop area in the New Policies Scenario Potential sustainable feedstock and requirements to meet biofuels demand in the New Policies Scenario, Average annual global energy efficiency and renewables investments in the New Policies Scenario Fossil-fuel net-import bills for selected regions and savings enabled by energy efficiency and renewables in the New Policies Scenario Examples of technologies contributing to energy efficiency, renewables or electrification targets DSR potential and generation from variable renewables in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios Growth in global industrial heat demand by temperature level in the New Policies Scenario, Change in global industrial heat supply mix by temperature level by scenario, Floor area in residential buildings and CO 2 emissions related to space conditioning and water heating in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios Building energy performance levels in India s Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) Change in key indicators in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios in 2040 relative to Global energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement and key contributions in the Sustainable Development Scenario 327 Part B: Special Focus on Natural Gas Figures for Chapter 8: Outlook for natural gas 8.1 Liquefaction capacity currently under construction by key countries and year of first commercial operation V World Energy Outlook 2017

15 8.2 World natural gas demand by scenario Gas demand in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Key natural gas demand growth centres, additional use in the New Policies Scenario, Change in gas demand versus price in Germany, United Kingdom and United States, Annualised growth of global natural gas demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario Coalbed methane production in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario Russian gas exports by destination and aggregate utilisation of export capacity in the New Policies Scenario Natural gas balance of the European Union in the New Policies Scenario Change in natural gas production in selected developing countries in the New Policies Scenario, Change in gas imports by selected region and transport mode in the New Policies Scenario, Selected global gas trade flows in the New Policies Scenario (bcm) Change in net gas exports by selected region in the New Policies Scenario Evolution of the LNG vessel fleet and the average shipping distance in the New Policies Scenario 365 Figures for Chapter 9: The new gas order 9.1 US gas production by type in the New Policies Scenario Rise in US shale gas output versus the steepest ramp-up in gas production in the Soviet Union Average costs of resources developed in the New Policies Scenario by year and average Henry Hub price Indexed production growth of selected chemicals in the United States in the New Policies Scenario US pipeline gas trade by destination in the New Policies Scenario Indicative well-head breakeven cost of various shale gas plays in North America Selected LNG exports in the New Policies Scenario US LNG net exports by destination and market share in the global LNG trade in the New Policies Scenario Delivered cost of different sources of gas to Europe and Asia, Market shares in inter-regional gas trade by exporter in WEO 2017 and the WEO-2016, Global long-distance gas trade by transport mode and pricing method in the New Policies Scenario Total volume of LNG contracts concluded between 2011 and 2016 by size and duration Already contracted versus projected global LNG capacity in the New Policies Scenario Estimated average time to procure an extra 10% of LNG import volumes by selected importer in the New Policies Scenario Annualised potential to reduce demand for gas by switching to coal in selected power systems Fuel price evolution in North America and East Asia in the New Policies Scenario 395 Table of Contents 20-VI

16 Figures for Chapter 10: The environmental case for natural gas 10.1 Share of natural gas in total energy-related emissions of selected air pollutants and CO 2, Sources of methane emissions, Scope of methane emissions included in analysis Ratio of measured emission factors to assumed or estimated emission factors from pre-2014 studies in the United States Reported oil- and gas-related methane emissions for 2005 from the US Greenhouse Gas Inventory annual reports Measurement studies for various facilities indicating the prevalence of super-emitting sources Regional and sectoral breakdown of methane emissions from oil and gas operations, Comparison of recent assessments of global oil- and gas-related methane emissions Greenhouse-gas emission intensity of natural gas compared with coal Methane emission intensity of oil, gas and coal in the United States Global marginal abatement cost curve for oil and gas methane emissions by source, Marginal abatement cost curve for oil- and gas-related methane emissions by region, Oil- and gas-related methane emissions in the New Policies Scenario with and without abatement measures Oil- and gas-related methane emissions in the Sustainable Development Scenario with and without abatement measures 430 Figures for Chapter 11: Natural gas in a changing energy world 11.1 US electricity generation by fuel and related CO 2 emissions Historical fuel consumption shares by sector in the United Kingdom Change in global primary energy demand by scenario, Global air pollutant emissions in the New Policies Scenario Average CO 2 emissions intensity of electricity generation in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Change in industrial energy consumption in China by type in the New Policies Scenario Global gas consumption in road and maritime transport in the New Policies Scenario Global primary energy demand in the Sustainable Development Scenario Gas demand by region in the Sustainable Development Scenario Share of coal and gas in energy demand in selected regions in the Sustainable Development Scenario Gas demand by sector in the Sustainable Development Scenario Natural gas-fired capacity and average utilisation rates in selected regions in the Sustainable Development Scenario Average CO 2 emissions intensity of electricity generation in selected regions in the Sustainable Development Scenario Average and peak natural gas demand in Japan and the United States by sector in the Sustainable Development Scenario VII World Energy Outlook 2017

17 11.15 Average and peak natural gas demand in Japan and United States in the Sustainable Development Scenario Global pipeline and LNG trade by scenario Average annual investment into gas infrastructure by scenario Global gas demand in a Disjointed Transition Case Global liquefaction capacity and demand in the New Policies Scenario and the Disjointed Transition Case 465 Part C: China Energy Outlook Figures for Chapter 12: Energy in China today 12.1 Comparisons in average annual growth rates for selected indicators in China, versus China s share of selected global indicators Comparison of China s primary energy demand by fuel and final consumption by sector with the rest of the world average, Primary energy demand by fuel in China Annual power generation capacity additions by type in China Power generation mix in China Historical end-user energy expenditure in China Total final energy consumption by sector in China China s provinces by population density and main regions in Total final energy consumption by sector in China, Total fossil-fuel production in selected countries, Primary energy production and total final energy consumption by fuel and region in China, Chinese coal imports by source, Refining capacity and demand for oil products in China Solar PV exports from China, Changing structure of the economy in China (share of value added by sector) China energy supply investments China s national administrative structure for energy 500 Figures for Chapter 13: Outlook for China s energy demand 13.1 Primary energy demand per unit of GDP in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Energy demand by fuel in selected end-use sectors in China in the New Policies Scenario Output of selected industrial products by region in China, Industrial development trajectory and energy intensity in China in a global context in the New Policies Scenario China industry energy mix and related output by sector in the New Policies Scenario Impact of a delay in the reduction of steel and cement production on total energy demand from industry in China, relative to the New Policies Scenario 522 Table of Contents 20-VIII

18 13.7 Oil demand in China s transport sector, China energy demand in transport by fuel and mode in the New Policies Scenario China average annual growth of passenger car fuel use and vehicle stock by region and EV share in the New Policies Scenario China passenger car ownership in selected provinces and two variations of future car ownership and oil demand Average energy consumption, number of appliances and floor area per household in China s urban and rural areas District heating network by province and share of urban population with access to natural gas in Indicators for the development of the services sector in China China buildings energy consumption by fuel and end-use in the New Policies Scenario China buildings heat demand by end-use and fuel in the New Policies Scenario Installed capacity by technology in China in the New Policies Scenario Electricity generation by fuel in China in the New Policies Scenario Historical and projected levelised cost of electricity by selected technology in China in the New Policies Scenario Electricity supply costs by component in China in the New Policies Scenario Annual average investment for power plants and networks in China in the New Policies Scenario Electricity generation mix by province in China, Total generation and curtailment of wind and solar PV in China China electricity generation mix by region and net electricity trade flows in the New Policies Scenario China hourly generation mix and electricity trade for the Northwest, North, East and Central regions in China average hourly wholesale energy market prices by region in the New Policies Scenario, Energy-related CO 2 emissions by sector and peak year in China in the New Policies Scenario CO 2 emissions from the power sector in China in the New Policies Scenario Concentration of PM 2.5 in China in the New Policies Scenario Emissions by air pollutant and by sector in China in the New Policies Scenario 559 Figures for Chapter 14: Outlook for China s energy supply and investment 14.1 Investments required versus investments actually made in coal mining in China China domestic coal price evolution China domestic steam coal production cost curve by mine size, Coal industry restructuring: production by selected province in China and mining capacity in the New Policies Scenario China s coking coal demand by source and steel output by production route China coal production by mine type in the New Policies Scenario Coal mining productivity in selected countries IX World Energy Outlook 2017

19 14.8 Breakdown of refining capacity in China, end China s oil production in the New Policies Scenario Required annual investment for China s oil supply by production level China s crude oil import volume and associated import bill in the New Policies Scenario China s crude oil imports by origin and route Gasoline and diesel demand in China in the New Policies Scenario Trade balance of key refined products in China in the New Policies Scenario Average natural gas import prices and average city-gate benchmark price in China Natural gas demand in China and production by type in the New Policies Scenario Indicative production cost ranges for different sources of gas in China, Natural gas imports in China by exporter and transport mode in the New Policies Scenario Installed power generation capacity in China in the New Policies Scenario 597 Figures for Chapter 15: Global implications of energy policy reforms in China 15.1 Change in world primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario Energy-related CO 2 emissions and per-capita energy-related CO 2 emissions in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Timeline of major energy milestones for China, historical and projected in the New Policies Scenario Demand for goods and services in selected sectors in China in the New Policies Scenario Sectoral value-added contributions to overall economic growth in China, New Policies Scenario, Share of exports by sector in total Chinese exports in the New Policies Scenario Foregone benefits due to a slower economic and energy transition in China in the Current Policies Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, China CO 2 emissions in the Sustainable Development and New Policies Scenarios Concentration of PM 2.5 in China in the Sustainable Development Scenario Key indicators of China s low-carbon transition in the Sustainable Development Scenario Additional average annual investment needs and change in fossil-fuel import bills in China in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario China s net energy imports and share of global trade by scenario China s crude oil import by origin in the New Policies Scenario LNG imports and contracted volume by supplier in China in the New Policies Scenario Natural decline of coal production versus retirement rates for China s coal-fired capacity China s share of cumulative global investment in selected fuels and technologies in the New Policies Scenario Global CO 2 emissions savings from China s export of solar PV panels and batteries for electric cars by scenario 638 Table of Contents 20-X

20 Figures for Annex C: Definitions C.1 Liquid fuels classification 745 C.2 World Energy Outlook main country groupings 749 List of tables Part A: Global Energy Trends Tables for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope 1.1 CO 2 price in selected regions by scenario ($2016 per tonne) Real GDP growth assumptions by region Population assumptions by region Fossil-fuel import prices by scenario 52 Tables for Chapter 2: Overview 2.1 World primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario (Mtoe) World primary energy demand by fuel and scenario (Mtoe) Global energy investment by type and scenario, ($2016 billion) 101 Tables for Chapter 3: Energy, emissions and universal access 3.1 Selected recent climate change and air pollution policy developments Selected climate and clean energy targets from sub-national actors including cities, states and companies Selected policy priorities to address climate change and reduce air pollutant emissions in the Sustainable Development Scenario World primary energy demand in the Sustainable Development Scenario (Mtoe) 144 Tables for Chapter 4: Outlook for oil 4.1 Oil and total liquids demand and supply by scenario (mb/d) Oil demand by region in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d) Selected recent initiatives for electric mobility Remaining technically recoverable oil resources by type and region, end-2016 (billion barrels) World oil supply by type in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d) Non-OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d) OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d) World liquids demand in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d) Refining capacity and runs by region in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d) Cumulative oil and gas supply investment by region in the New Policies Scenario, ($2016 billion) 201 Tables for Chapter 5: Outlook for coal 5.1 World coal demand, production and trade by scenario (Mtce) Coal demand by region in the New Policies Scenario (Mtce) Remaining recoverable coal resources, end-2015 (billion tonnes) XI World Energy Outlook 2017

21 5.4 Coal production by region in the New Policies Scenario (Mtce) Coal trade by region in the New Policies Scenario 216 Tables for Chapter 6: Power markets and electrification 6.1 Electricity demand by region and scenario (TWh) Recent developments in regional power sector policies included in the New Policies Scenario Cumulative power plant capacity retirements by region and source in the New Policies Scenario, (GW) Cumulative gross power plant capacity additions by region and source in the New Policies Scenario, (GW) Cumulative investment in the power sector by region and type in the New Policies Scenario, ($2016 billion) World electricity generation by source and scenario (TWh) 257 Tables for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency and renewable energy 7.1 Selected energy efficiency policies announced or introduced since mid Selected renewable energy targets proposed or introduced since mid World renewable energy consumption by scenario Current status of DSR enablers in various electricity markets Realising demand-side response potential Common industrial low- and medium-temperature processes 318 Part B: Special Focus on Natural Gas Tables for Chapter 8: Outlook for natural gas 8.1 Natural gas demand by region in the New Policies Scenario (bcm) Remaining technically recoverable natural gas resources by type and region, end-2016 (tcm) Natural gas production by region in the New Policies Scenario (bcm) Natural gas trade by region in the New Policies Scenario 361 Tables for Chapter 10: The environmental case for natural gas 10.1 Major voluntary methane emissions reduction initiatives 420 Tables for Chapter 11: Natural gas in a changing energy world 11.1 Gas demand by region in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 452 Part C: China Energy Outlook Tables for Chapter 12: Energy in China today 12.1 Selected energy and economic indicators for China, Selected indicators for population, GDP, energy use and trade by region and province in China, Table of Contents 20-XII

22 12.3 Selected key energy and environment indicators in China s 13th Five-Year Plan Main state-owned energy-related enterprises in China Main goals of China s Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy, Tables for Chapter 13: Outlook for China s energy demand 13.1 Primary energy demand by fuel in China in the New Policies Scenario (Mtoe) China final energy demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario (Mtoe) Key elements of the Made in China 2025 initiative Selected industry-related targets in China s 13th Five-Year Plan for Selected transport sector policies in China and selected cities Selected policies for buildings in China Key targets of the 13th Five-Year Plan for the power sector 539 Tables for Chapter 14: Outlook for China s energy supply and investment 14.1 Primary energy production in China in the New Policies Scenario China coal demand, production and net trade in the New Policies Scenario (Mtce) China oil demand, production and net trade (mb/d) Remaining technically recoverable oil resources by type in China, end-2016 (billion barrels) China natural gas demand, production and trade in the New Policies Scenario (bcm) Total installed solar PV capacity by province at year-end Installed wind power capacity by province year-end Investments in energy supply in China in the New Policies Scenario, (billion $2016) Investments in low-carbon technologies in China in the New Policies Scenario, (billion $2016) Investments in energy efficiency in China in the New Policies Scenario, (billion $2016) 606 Tables for Chapter 15: Global implications of energy policy reforms in China 15.1 Major socio-economic trends in China and in developed countries in the New Policies Scenario Changes in GDP by driver in China in the Current Policies Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario Performance levels for selected products by sector in China in the Sustainable Development Scenario China primary energy demand by fuel in the Sustainable Development Scenario (Mtoe) 624 Tables for Annex A: Tables for scenario projections A.1. Fossil-fuel production and demand by region XIII World Energy Outlook 2017

23 A.2. Energy demand, gross electricity generation and electrical capacity, and carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil-fuel combustion by region 648 A.3. Global emissions of pollutants by energy sector and fuel 724 Tables for Annex B: Policies and measures by scenario B.1 Cross-cutting policy assumptions by scenario for selected regions 728 B.2 Power sector policies and measures as modelled by scenario for selected regions 730 B.3 Transport sector policies and measures as modelled by scenario in selected regions 732 B.4 Industry sector policies and measures as modelled by scenario in selected regions 734 B.5 Buildings sector policies and measures as modelled by scenario in selected regions 736 List of boxes Part A: Global Energy Trends Boxes for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope 1.1 How has the World Energy Outlook evolved since 1977? A new way to look at the world of energy How might digitalisation affect the future of energy? 58 Boxes for Chapter 2: Overview 2.1 The US shale revolution in context Air quality in China Joining forces: how renewables and energy efficiency can be more than the sum of their parts Fossil-fuel consumption subsidies: power takes the lead Powering up off the grid Does gas still work as a bridge in a world of cheap renewables? When could electric cars beat conventional cars? Are energy projects getting smaller? Is there a chance to join up the offshore dots? 106 Boxes for Chapter 3: Energy, emissions and universal access 3.1 Sustainable Development Goals The Montreal Protocol and the Kigali Amendment What s different in a Sustainable Development Scenario? The Sustainable Development Scenario and the Paris Agreement 134 Boxes for Chapter 4: Outlook for oil 4.1 LPG: fuel for cleaner cooking A material opportunity to improve global efficiency Choosing value versus volume Prospects for Canadian oil sands development in the New Policies Scenario Oil security in the Sustainable Development Scenario 199 Table of Contents 20-XIV

24 Boxes for Chapter 5: Outlook for coal 5.1 Coal s number one competitor in India: the sun 222 Boxes for Chapter 6: Power markets and electrification 6.1 Changing policy and market landscape in the United States Will utility-scale batteries replace peaking power plants? Offshore wind and bidding zero The rise of electricity in end-user energy expenditure 279 Boxes for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency and renewable energy 7.1 Motor of change for industrial efficiency LEDs: what role for electrification? Relative merits of rooftop solar PV and rooftop solar thermal Is an advanced biofuels revolution feasible with domestic and sustainable biomass supply? Reaching carbon neutrality in a brewery New building energy codes in India 325 Part B: Special Focus on Natural Gas Boxes for Chapter 8: Outlook for natural gas 8.1 What happened to the Golden Age of Gas? How floating technologies can enable gas market development 358 Boxes for Chapter 9: The new gas order 9.1 How the success of US shale may postpone the revolution elsewhere What s the problem with oil price indexation? The role of aggregators in LNG trading How can Asian consumers benefit from the changes in gas markets? 393 Boxes for Chapter 10: The environmental case for natural gas 10.1 Public acceptance of unconventional gas: the Golden Rules The pitfalls of global warming potentials (GWP) Methane emissions glossary Super-emitters: what are they and why are they problematic? Selected sources of methane emissions and mitigation options What you can learn from your LDARs 421 Boxes for Chapter 11: Natural gas in a changing energy world 11.1 Historical coal-to-gas switching in the United Kingdom The role of natural gas in improving air quality Is CO 2 pricing the answer for gas? Can natural gas be a zero-carbon fuel? XV World Energy Outlook 2017

25 Part C: China Energy Outlook Boxes for Chapter 12: Energy in China today 12.1 Chinese energy investments abroad Looking back to the future: the China focus in WEO China s 13th Five-Year Plan 494 Boxes for Chapter 13: Outlook for China s energy demand 13.1 Why does energy demand growth in China slow? I bike, you bike, e-bike Are biomass and coal disappearing from households in China? Regional hourly models with electricity trade Improving the flexibility of coal-fired power plants in China 552 Boxes for Chapter 14: Outlook for China s energy supply and investment 14.1 Road to subsidy reform in China The quest for oil security so far Domestic small-scale liquefaction in China 596 Boxes for Chapter 15: Global implications of energy policy reforms in China 15.1 Looking ahead to 2050: establishing China s 2050 strategy An upside for China s shale gas would prolong the pain for the global LNG industry 634 List of spotlights Part A: Global Energy Trends Why doesn t the IEA have a long-term forecast? 40 How can the IEA keep up with global energy demand(s)? 67 Which sub-national initiatives can help deliver the low-carbon transition? 121 India s Clean Energy Ambitions How far from the Sustainable Development Scenario? 141 What would it take for oil prices to stay lower for longer? 158 Can deepwater developments adapt to the new investment climate? 184 The expanding role of smaller players in electricity supply 254 Tapping DSR potential for variable renewables integration 314 Part B: Special Focus on Natural Gas What s the price for gas demand to grow? 342 Will Europe become the battlefield of a price war? 384 Lifecycle greenhouse-gas emissions: how do gas and coal compare? 416 Part C: China Energy Outlook A trillion dollar question: what are China s energy consumers spending their money on? 479 Table of Contents 20-XVI