GHG-TransPoRD: 2020: Linking R&D, transport policies and reduction targets. Economic impacts of the scenarios

Transcription

1 GHG-TransPoRD: reducing greenhouse gas emissions of transport beyond 2020: Linking R&D, transport policies and reduction targets Economic impacts of the scenarios Dr. Wolfgang Schade Fraunhofer-ISI Karlsruhe, Germany i h f d Seite 1

2 Agenda Economic effects of climate policy: direct and indirect effects Economic impacts of climate policy Economic results of the Max-T scenario Conclusions Seite 2

3 Direct effects and second round effects ( indirect effects) Bottom-up impulse Macro-economic feedbacks Mitigation investment e.g. R&D alternative vehicle technology direct effects Investment GDP second round effects Change of transport expenditure e.g. fuel cost of car use of households direct effects Consumption Disposable Income 3 Seite 3

4 Economic effects of climate policy Price effects on industry and households (negative / positive) Induced investment to comply with climate policy regulation (partially additional) Avoided investment into capital goods that are not compatible with climate targets Savings of energy i.e. savings of energy expenditures (business and households) Savings of imports of fossil fuels Improvement of energy security Increased exports e.g. if first mover advantages can be gained Changes of government revenues and expenditures Reduced energy tax revenues Increased spending to implement low carbon infrastructure Subsidies to R&D and demonstration activities (in some cases also market introduction). => Changes of competitiveness, growth and employment. Seite 4

5 Economic aspects of the Max- T scenario Seite 5

6 ASTRA model: Overview on spatial representation Spatial disaggregation for EU29 countries: 14 EU15 countries (B+L) each with 4 functional zones 12 new EU member states plus Swi + Nor with 1-2 functional zones At maxiumum four functional zones per country classified by settlement density: Metropolitan zone High density zone Medium density zone Low density zone Seite 6

7 ASTRA model: 25 Economic sectors Manufacturing Fuel and power products, water Ferrous and non-ferrous ores and metals Non-metallic mineral products Chemical products Metal products except machinery Agricultural and industrial machinery Optical goods, office+data processing mach. Electrical goods Transport equipment Food, beverages, tobacco Textiles and clothing, leather and footwear Paper and printing products Rubber and plastic products Other manufacturing products Services Recovery, repair services, wholesale, retail Lodging and catering services Inland transport services Maritime and air transport services Auxiliary transport services Communication services Services of credit and insurance institutions Other market services Non-market services Other Agriculture, forestry and fishery products Building and construction Seite 7

8 ASTRA model: Overview on modules and i nteractions ti Key features: Integrated models System Dynamics (Vensim) 27 EU countries (+ NO, CH) 76 zones 25 economic sectors > OD flows (P, F) 8 modes (P+F) 800 MB of output data Time horizon up to 2050 Abbreviations for 9 Modules: POP = Population Module MAC = Macroeconomics Module REM = Regional Economics Module FOT = Foreign Trade Module TRA = Transport Module VFT = Vehicle Fleet Module ENV = Environment Module WEM = Welfare Measurement Module INF = Infrastructure Module ehicles, VAT ome vestment in Ve Disposable Inco D nsumption, Inv Con Population Change MAC VFT Potential Labour Force Investment POP Population Structure GDP, (Un -)Employment, Sectoral Output GDP, Productivity Goods-Flows - REM TRA Exports, Imports Time FOT INF TRA Time Generalized Cost Transport Expenditure, TRA Flows Performance, Time Transport Demand TRA Transport Cost, Time Fu uel Pr rice Fuel Tax Revenue, VAT GDP, Employment,... Fuel Price Fleet Structure VKT ENV Emissions, Noise, Accidents WEM t Car Fleet Seite 8

9 ASTRA model: structure of economic modules Private Cap. Public Cap. TFP Capital Stock Depreciation Employment Labour Supply Potential Output (national) GDP Supply Side Population Income (Resource Inp.) Consumption > < GDP Net national product Investment Final Demand (by sector) GDP Demand Side Export Trade Balance Fuel taxes Subsidies Import Gov. consum. Value-added tax Other taxes Indirect taxes Direct taxes National income Transfers Social contrib. Disposable income 9 Seite 9

10 Detailed information on ASTRA Schade W. (2005): Strategic Sustainability Analysis: Concept and application for the assessment of European Transport Policy. NOMOS-Verlag, Baden-Baden, Germany. Krail M. (2009): System-Based Analysis of Income Distribution Impacts on Mobility Behaviour. NOMOS-Verlag, Baden-Baden, Germany. Seite 10

11 Indices of average transport cost per mode (total expenditures / total pkm or tkm) Change of average transport cost by mode in EU27 [% change to REF scenario] Transport energy price index Passenger car cost index (perceived) Passenger bus cost 20 index 30 Passenger rail cost index 40 Passenger air cost index 50 Freight road cost index Freight rail cost index Source: GHG-TransPoRD, ASTRA WP4 Seite 11

12 Total additional investment impulse in Max-T scenari o ( preliminary, biofuels mi ssing) Additional investment by transport sector due to climate policy [Bio 2005 ] Transport R&D in 2008 in EU27 Total by mode [ 2005 ]: Air: 13 bn Ship: 165 bn Rail: 80 bn Road: 411 bn Air Ship Rail Road Source: GHG-TransPoRD, bottom-up estimates Seite 12

13 Max-T scenario: GDP changes positive GDP changes by major European regions [Billion Euro] Eastern EU Total EU27 vs REF: Until 2030: +1.4% Until 2050: +1.9% 500 Northern EU 400 Southern EU But we do not meet 300 Big four the GHG reduction target! But 60_TP vs REF: Until 2030: +0.2% Until 2050: 0.1% Source: GHG-TransPoRD TransPoRD, ASTRA WP4 Seite 13

14 Max-T scenario: gross-value added changes [Billion Euro o] Change of gross value added d by aggregate sector in EU27 Agriculture & Fishery Energy Industry Construction Transport services Market services excl. transportt Source: GHG-TransPoRD, ASTRA WP4 Seite 14

15 Max-T scenario: changes of consumption expenditures of householdh Changes of consumption expenditures of households [Bio 2005 ] Consumption Consumption transport total Consumption fuel Fossil fuel expenditures Source: GHG-TransPoRD, ASTRA WP4 Seite 15

16 Max-T scenario: changes of government revenues from transportt consumption Losses of government revenues from private transport consumption 30 [Bio ] Fuel tax 20 household 10 VAT from fuel VAT from vehicles VAT from transport tickets Saldo households In 2050 in EU27: -58% fuel tax rev. -56% VAT rev. of fuel +11% VAT on vehicles -22% VAT on transport tickets Source: GHG-TransPoRD, ASTRA WP4 Seite 16

17 Conclusions Economic impacts of an ambitious efficiency technology scenario can be positive In such a scenario industry sectors benefit (automotove, machinery), while transport services are disadvantaged GHG reductions of such a scenario do not achieve the reduction targets On country level the economic impacts differ significantly Including full set of indirect effects the macro-economic effects of climate policy can be positive => important to consider direct and indirect economic effects! GHG-TransPoRD will develop abatement cost curve by mode for the different scenarios Seite 17

18 Contact Dr. Wolfgang Schade Coordinator of GHG-TransPoRD project Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) Breslauerstr. 48, Karlsruhe, Germany Phone: Fax: Project website: Seite 18