Nuclear Energy Prospects after Fukushima: The Asian Experience Seoul, 28 August 2012

Transcription

1 Nuclear Energy Prospects after Fukushima: The Asian Experience Seoul, 28 August 2012 Dr. Hooman Peimani Principal Fellow & Head Energy Security Division Energy Studies Institute Contributed by: SU, Liying (ESI Energy Analyst) Opinions expressed in this presentation are those of its presenter only. They do not reflect the opinions of the Energy Studies Institute. 1

2 I. Introduction A. Asia s energy requirements and projections for 2035 Energy Mix in Asia Oceania ( ) Energy Demand (Mtoe) Shares (%) Coal % 41% Oil % 22% Gas % 14% Nuclear % 7% Hydro % 3% Biomass and waste % 10% Note: The statistics are calculated by adding up OECD Asia Oceania and Non-OECD Asia. Other renewables % 4% Total % 100% Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011, p

3 I. Introduction B. Domination of the Asian energy mix by fossil energy to continue C. Small share of non-fossil energy (renewables and nuclear) Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011, p

4 II. Nuclear Energy in Asia A. Five decades of nuclear energy starting in Japan Reactor Type Net capacity Utility Commercial Operation Fukushima I-5 BWR 760 MWe TEPCO April 1978 Fukushima I-6 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO October 1979 Fukushima II-1 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO April 1982 Fukushima II-2 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO February 1984 Fukushima II-3 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO June 1985 Fukushima II-4 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO August 1987 Genkai-1 PWR 529 MWe Kyushu October 1975 Genkai-2 PWR 529 MWe Kyushu March 1981 Genkai-3 PWR 1127 MWe Kyushu March 1994 Genkai-4 PWR 1127 MWe Kyushu July 1997 Hamaoka-3 BWR 1056 MWe Chubu August 1987 Hamaoka-4 BWR 1092 MWe Chubu September 1993 Hamaoka-5 ABWR 1325 MWe Chubu January 2005 Higashidori-1 Tohoku BWR 1067 MWe Tohoku December 2005 Ikata-1 PWR 538 MWe Shikoku September 1977 Ikata-2 PWR 538 MWe Shikoku March 1982 Ikata-3 PWR 846 MWe Shikoku December 1994 Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in Japan. This Table continues over the next two pages 4

5 II. Nuclear Energy in Asia Reactor Type Net Capacity Utility Commercial Operation Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-1 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO September 1985 Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-2 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO September 1990 Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-3 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO August 1993 Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-4 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO August 1994 Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-5 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO April 1990 Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-6 ABWR 1315 MWe TEPCO November 1996 Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-7 ABWR 1315 MWe TEPCO July 1997 Mihama-1 PWR 320 MWe Kansai November 1970 Mihama-2 PWR 470 MWe Kansai July 1972 Mihama-3 PWR 780 MWe Kansai December 1976 Ohi-1 PWR 1120 MWe Kansai March 1979 Ohi-2 PWR 1120 MWe Kansai December 1979 Ohi-3 PWR 1127 MWe Kansai December 1991 Ohi-4 PWR 1127 MWe Kansai February 1993 Onagawa-1 BWR 498 MWe Tohoku June 1984 Onagawa-2 BWR 796 MWe Tohoku July 1995 Onagawa-3 BWR 796 MWe Tohoku January

6 II. Nuclear Energy in Asia Reactor Type Net Capacity Utility Commercial Operation Sendai-1 PWR 846 MWe Kyushu July 1984 Sendai-2 PWR 846 MWe Kyushu November 1985 Shika-1 BWR 505 MWe Hokuriku July 1993 Shika-2 BWR 1304 MWe Hokuriku March 2006 Shimane-1 BWR 439 MWe Chugoku March 1974 Shimane-2 BWR 791 MWe Chugoku February 1989 Takahama-1 PWR 780 MWe Kansai November 1974 Takahama-2 PWR 780 MWe Kansai November 1975 Takahama-3 PWR 830 MWe Kansai January 1985 Takahama-4 PWR 830 MWe Kansai June 1985 Tokai-2 BWR 1060 MWe JAPC November 1978 Tomari-1 PWR 550 MWe Hokkaido June 1989 Tomari-2 PWR 550 MWe Hokkaido April 1991 Tomari-3 PWR 866 MWe Hokkaido December 2009 Tsuruga-1 BWR 341 MWe JAPC March 1970 Tsuruga-2 PWR 1110 MWe JAPC February 1987 Total: 50 reactors 44,396 MWe 6

7 II. Nuclear Energy in Asia B. Expansion of nuclear energy to China, South Korea and Taiwan Operating Nuclear Reactors in China Units Province Net capacity Commercial Type Operator (each) operation Daya Bay 1&2 Guangdong 944 MWe PWR (French CGNPC 1994 M310) Qinshan Phase I Zhejiang 279 MWe PWR (CNP-300) CNNC April 1994 Qinshan Phase II, 1-4 Zhejiang 610 MWe PWR (CNP-600) CNNC 2002, 2004, 2010, 2012 Qinshan Phase Zhejiang 665 MWe PHWR (Candu 6) CNNC 2002, 2003 III, 1&2 Ling Ao Phase I, Guangdong 935 MWe PWR (French CGNPC 2002, &2 M310) Tianwan 1&2 Jiangsu 1000 MWe PWR (VVER- CNNC 2007, ) Ling Ao Phase II, 1&2 Guangdong 1037 MWe PWR (CPR-1000) CGNPC Sept 2010, Aug 2011 Total: 15 11,881 MWe Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in China. 7

8 II. Nuclear Energy in Asia Power Reactors Operating in South Korea Reactor Type Net capacity Commercial Operation Planned Close Kori 1 PWR - Westinghouse 576 MWe 4/ Kori 2 PWR - Westinghouse 637 MWe 7/83 Wolsong 1 PHWR - Candu MWe 4/ Kori 3 PWR - Westinghouse 1007 MWe 9/85 Kori 4 PWR - Westinghouse 1007 MWe 4/86 Yonggwang 1 PWR - Westinghouse 953 MWe 8/86 Yonggwang 2 PWR - Westinghouse 947 MWe 6/87 Ulchin 1 PWR - Framatome 945 MWe 9/88 Ulchin 2 PWR - Framatome 942 MWe 9/89 Yonggwang 3 PWR (Syst 80) 997 MWe 12/95 Yonggwang 4 PWR (Syst 80) 994 MWe 3/96 Wolsong 2 PHWR - Candu 710 MWe 7/97 Wolsong 3 PHWR - Candu 707 MWe 7/98 Wolsong 4 PHWR - Candu 708 MWe 10/99 Ulchin 3 OPR MWe 8/98 Ulchin 4 OPR MWe 12/99 Yonggwang 5 OPR MWe 5/02 Yonggwang 6 OPR MWe 12/02 Ulchin 5 OPR MWe 7/04 Ulchin 6 OPR MWe 4/05 Shin Kori 1 OPR MWe 2/11 Shin Kori 2 OPR MWe 7/12 Shin Wolsong 1 OPR MWe 7/12 Total: 23 20,787 MWe Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in South Korea. 8

9 II. Nuclear Energy in Asia Operating Taiwan Nuclear Power Reactors Units type MWe gross MWe net Start up* Licenced to Chinshan 1 BWR Chinshan 2 BWR Kuosheng 1 BWR Kuosheng 2 BWR Maanshan 1 PWR Maanshan 2 PWR Total (6) 4927 MWe net * Dates are for start of commercial operation Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in Taiwan. 9

10 II. Nuclear Energy in Asia C. Asia-Pacific as the main arena for nuclear energy expansion 600 Nuclear Energy Demand (Mtoe), North America Europe/Eurasia Asia Oceania Middle East Africa Latin America Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011, p Note: statistics are calculated by adding up OECD Countries and Non-OECD Countries in each region. D. Slower growth of nuclear energy in other parts of Asia (excluding Eurasia) West Asia: Iran is the only country, which has built a nuclear reactor for electricity generation (Bushehr: 1000MW went online in 2011) 10

11 III. Demystification of the incident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant 1 (FNPP 1) A. The incident was triggered by a record earthquake (9 degrees) followed by a major tsunami (15 meters high) 1.FNPP 1 tolerated the earthquake/tsunami 2.The tsunami damaged its cooling system leading to the core meltdown of its operating reactors 3.Limited release of radiation estimated at 10% of that of Chernobyl 4.No death or major injury caused by radiation 5.Human errors as the main cause: Vulnerability of the FNPP 1 s cooling systems to tsunamis due to miscalculations 6.Same incidents are avoidable by placing nuclear reactors cooling systems at a level immune to the worst-case tsunamis. Proof: Japan s nuclear power plants in the tsunami/earthquake-affected region (excluding FNPP 1) tolerated the natural disasters without experiencing any problem (e.g., Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant 2). The FNPP 1 incident does not prove the unsafe nature of nuclear energy. 11

12 III. Demystification of the incident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant 1 (FNPP 1) B. Good safety record of nuclear energy: only three major accidents leading to the release of radiation since the nuclear energy era began Three Mile Island (1979): no harm to humans and no major damage to the environment Chernobyl (1986): human casualties and damages to the environment Fukushima (2011): no harm to humans and no major damage to the environment Source: Three Mile Island, 28 March 1979; Chernobyl Disaster, 26 April 1986; Fukushima Disaster, 11 March

13 IV. The Post-Fukushima era A. Negative view among the population at large about nuclear energy Main reasons: Lack of knowledge about nuclear energy Exaggerated reporting on the incident Source: 1. Anti-nuclear protest in Japan on Fukushima s first anniversary Anti-nuclear rallies in Europe a year after Fukushima. 13

14 IV. The Post-Fukushima era B. No major change in the global trends for nuclear energy expansion 1. Those uncommitted to nuclear energy in the pre- Fukushima era and/or have alternatives have declared phasing out their nuclear sector or not opting for one a.germany and Switzerland: It is uncertain if they will actually phase out their nuclear reactors at the end of their life span b.italy will continue importing electricity from France s nuclear reactors 2. Those committed in the pre-fukushima era for certain reasons have remained so (e.g., Brazil, France and Russia) 14

15 IV. The Post-Fukushima era C. The Fukushima nuclear incident s impact on Asia Two distinct reactions in Japan and the rest of the continent Japan s reaction: Exceptional to the continental reaction as it shut down all its nuclear reactors by June 2012 to conduct stress tests out of safety concerns and public pressure Reaction in other parts of Asia: Emphasis on safety issues, but no major change in their nuclear energy policy 15

16 V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia A. The Asia-Pacific region 1. Major players: China, India, South Korea, Taiwan and Pakistan have remained the main arena for the global and Asian nuclear energy expansion Nuclear Reactors under Construction and Planned, China Plant Province MWe gross Reactor model Project control Construction start Operation Hongyanhe units 1-4 Liaoning 4x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC, with CPI 8/07, 4/08, 3/09, 8/09 10/12, 2013, 2014 Ningde units 1-4 Fujian 4x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC, with Datang 2/08, 11/08, 1/10, 9/10 12/12, 2013, 2014, 2015 Fuqing units 1&2 Fujian 2x1080 CPR-1000 CNNC 11/08, 6/09 11/13, 9/14 Yangjiang units 1-4 Guangdong 4x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC 12/08, 8/09, 11/10, 3/11* 8/13, 2014, 2015, 2016 Fangjiashan units 1&2 Zhejiang 2x1080 CPR-1000 CNNC 12/08, 7/09 12/13, 10/14 Sanmen units 1&2 Zhejiang 2x1250 AP1000 CNNC 3/09, 12/09 11/13, 9/14 Haiyang units 1&2 Shandong 2x1250 AP1000 CPI 9/09, 6/10 5/14, 3/15 Taishan units 1&2 Guangdong 2x1770 EPR CGNPC 10/09, 4/10 10/13, 11/14 Hongyanhe units 5&6 Liaoning 2x1080 ACPR-1000 CGNPC, with CPI 2013? 2015 Shandong Shidaowan Shandong 210 HTR-PM Huaneng mid Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in China. This Table continues over the next two pages 16

17 V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia Plant Province MWe gross Reactor model Project control Construction start Operation Fangchenggang units 1&2 Guangxi 2x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC 7/10, , 2016 Fuqing units 3&4 Fujian 2x1080 CPR-1000 CNNC 7/10, 2011* 7/15, 5/16 Fuqing units 5&6 Fujian 2x1080 CPR-1000 or CNP1000 CNNC 2011, 2011* - Changjiang units 1&2 Hainan 2x650 CNP-600 CNNC & Huaneng 4/10, 11/ , 2015 Hongshiding (Rushan) units 1&2 Shandong 2x1080 CPR-1000 CNEC/CNNC Deferred from 2009? 2015 Yangjiang units 5&6 Guangdong 2x1080 ACPR-1000 CGNPC 2013* 2017 Ningde units 5&6 Fujian 2x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC Xudabao / Xudapu units 1&2 Liaoning 2x1250 AP1000 CPI, with Datang 9/11,? delayed Sanmen units 3&4 Zhejiang 2x1250 AP1000 CNNC Haiyang units 3&4 Shandong 2x1250 AP1000 CPI 2010? Sanming units 1&2 Fujian 2x880 BN-800 CNNC , 20 Zhangzhou units 1&2 Fujian 2x100 ACP100 CNNC & Guodian

18 V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia Plant Province MWe gross Reactor model Project control Construction start Operation Tianwan units 3&4 Jiangsu 2x1060 VVER-1000 CNNC?,? Lianyungang units 1&2 Jiangsu 2x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC Shanwei (Lufeng) units 1&2 Guangdong 2x1080 ACPR-1000 CGNPC late 2012? Shidaowan units 1-4 Shandong 4x1250 AP1000 Huaneng 2013?? Inland units planned but deferred Wuhu units 1&2 Anhui 2x1250 AP1000 CGNPC /2016 Xianning (Dafan) units 1&2 Hubei 2x1250 AP1000 CGNPC 2011 or ? Taohuajiang units 1-4 Hunan 4x1250 AP1000 CNNC / ? Pengze units 1&2 Jiangxi 2x1250 AP1000 CPI 2011 or ? Xiaomoshan units 1&2 Hunan 2x1250 AP1000 CPI 2012 Longyou (Zhexi) units 1&2 Zhejiang 2x1250 AP1000 CNNC 2012 Yanjiashan/Wanan/Ji'an Jiangxi 2x1250 AP1000 CNNC 2012 Shaoguan units 1-4 Total: 81 Guangdong (inland) 4x1250 AP1000 CGNPC ,750 MWe Wherever construction has started, the construction dates are marked in bold. Those reactors yet to be constructed are marked as 'planned' in the WNA reactor table. On1 December 2011, China had 26 reactors under construction (27,640 Mwe) and 51 reactors planned (57,480 Mwe ). Fangjiashan is sometimes shown as a development of Qinshan Phase I. * Approved, but construction delayed post-fukushima 18

19 V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia Reactor Type India s Nuclear Power Reactors under Construction MWe gross, net, each Project control Construction start Kudankulam 1 PWR (VVER) 1000, 950 NPCIL March 2002 Commercial operation due 3/2012 but delayed Safeguards status item-specific Kudankulam 2 PWR (VVER) 1000, 950 NPCIL July /2012 but delayed item-specific Kalpakkam PFBR FBR 500, 470 Bhavini Oct Kakrapar 3 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL Nov 2010 June 2015 Kakrapar 4 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL March 2011 Dec 2015 Rajasthan 7 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL July 2011 Dec 2016 Rajasthan 8 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL Sept 2011 Dec 2016 Total (7) 4890 MWe net, 5300 MWe gross Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in India. 19

20 V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia South Korean Reactors under Construction or Planned Reactor Type Gross capacity Start construction Commercial operation Shin Wolsong 2 OPR MWe September /2013 Shin Kori 3 APR MWe October /2013 Shin Kori 4 APR MWe August /2014 Shin Ulchin 1 APR MWe July /2017 Shin Ulchin 2 APR MWe Sept /2018 Shin Kori 5 APR MWe 8/ /2018 Shin Kori 6 APR MWe 8/ /2019 Shin Wolsong 3 APR MWe 6/2020 Shin Wolsong 4 APR MWe 6/2021 Total 9 12,250 MWe (c 11,680 MWe net) Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in South Korea. 20

21 V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia Taiwan Nuclear Reactors under Construction type MWe net start-up commercial operation Lungmen 1 ABWR ? Lungmen 2 ABWR ? 2015 total (2) 2600 Nuclear Power Reactors under Construction, Planned and Proposed, Pakistan Construction Commercial Reactor Type MWe gross start operation Chashma 3 PWR 340 May 2011 Dec 2016 Chashma 4 PWR 340 Dec 2011 Oct 2017 Chashma 5 PWR 1000? Karachi 2 & 3 2 x 1000 Total ? Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in Taiwan. World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in Pakistan. 21

22 V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia 2. New comer - Vietnam: Agreement with Russia for two 1000 MW reactors (construction of the first reactor is set to start in 2014 for completion in 2018) and another agreement with Japan for two similar reactors to come on line in ; talks with South Korea for another reactor Source: 1. The sketch of Vietnam s first nuclear power in Ninh Thuan Province. VietnamNews.biz Vietnam PM Dung receives Russian Deputy Foreign Minister A. Borodavkin. Both side discussed orientations and measures to enhance bilateral cooperation to accelerate the implementation of strategic cooperation projects, especially the project on construction of the first nuclear-power plant in Vietnam. 26 April

23 V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia B. West Asia & Eurasia 1. Iran has continued its program: Constructing its indigenously-designed 360MW light water Darkhoveyn reactor; plans for constructing two more reactors near the operating Bushehr Plant (two third-generation PWR nuclear reactors to 1600 MW each) 2. Turkey: Continued commitment to its 2010 agreement with Russia for its financing, building and operating four 1200 MW rectors in Turkey (Construction to start in mid 2013); two nuclear agreements with China were signed in 2012 but few concrete details were made available. Source: 1. Bushehr I and II Nuclear Power Plants, Iran Two nuclear energy agreements were signed under the auspices of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao in Beijing after their tete-a-tete meeting and a meeting between their respective delegations at the Chinese National Assembly. 23

24 V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia 3. Armenia: continued use of its Soviet-built nuclear reactor (VER-440; net capacity 376 MW) -Approved in 2010 the construction of one unit (VVER1000MW; net capacity: 1060 MW) to be built by Atomstroeyexport beginning in 2012 for commissioning in Kazakhstan: plan for a 600 MW nuclear power plant Source: The Metsamor nuclear plant at the base of Armenia s towering symbol, Mount Ararat

25 V. Continued nuclear energy program in Asia C. Persian Gulf/Middle East UAE: Committed to its 2010 agreement with a South Korean consortium for building four 1400 MW reactors: Construction of Unit 1 started in July 2012 to be completed in 2017; other units set to be operational in 2018 (unit 2), 2019 (Unit 3) and 2020 (units 4). Jordan: Plan to start building a MW reactor in 2013 to become operational by 2020 and a second one to go online by Saudi Arabia: Plans to construct 16 nuclear power reactors by 2032 (17 GW of nuclear capacity) 25

26 VI. Asia s commitment to nuclear energy in the post-fukushima era A. Reasons for Asia s commitment in the pre-fukushima era 1. Energy security (energy mix diversification) 2. Ending heavy reliance on imported fuels 3. Financial: heavy and growing cost of fuel imports Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2011, pp

27 VI. Asia s commitment to nuclear energy in the post-fukushima era 4. Political/security reasons: concerns about the vulnerability of the Asian countries to political/military developments in their supplying regions Current Results of Arab Spring Source: An oil refinery in Libya burns during the rebels push towards Tripoli. Photograph: Sean Smith for the Guardian. 27

28 VI. Asia s commitment to nuclear energy in the post-fukushima era 5. Depletion of oil/gas/coal reserves in fossil-energy-rich countries - According to BP, world proved oil, gas and coal reserves in 2010 were sufficient to meet 46.2, 58.6 and 118 years of global production, respectively. 6. Environmental reason: decreasing CO 2 emissions to mitigate global warming Asian countries had strong reasons to justify their opting for nuclear energy in the pre-fukushima era Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2011, pp

29 VI. Asia s commitment to nuclear energy in the post-fukushima era B. Reasons for Asia s Commitment to Nuclear Energy in the Post-Fukushima Era 1. Continued validity of the pre-fukushima era s reasons 2. Good safety record of nuclear energy since 1950s - Only three major accidents - Non-nuclear power generation has been more dangerous to humans and the environment in the same period if their fuels production process is taken into consideration Coal as an example: Thousands of coal miners are killed every year due to mining accidents throughout the world. In 2010, 2433 of miners were killed in China, for instance. CO 2 accounts for the bulk of greenhouse gasses, the main cause of global warming. Coal/peat burning for mainly power generation produced million tons of CO 2 in

30 VI. Asia s commitment to nuclear energy in the post-fukushima era 3. Developments since 2011 with a positive impact on nuclear energy expansion a. Availability concern: whether enough oil and gas will be available Concern about the availability of Arab oil/gas supplies given the prevailing political instability (e.g., Egypt) and, in cases, war (Libya and Yemen) in the Arab oil/gas exporters of mainly North Africa and a fear of expansion of such situation to the major Arab oil/gas exporters of the Persian Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and the UAE) Concern about the availability of African oil supplies owing to: -- the independence of Sudan s southern part containing about 90% of the country s oil reserves, which became official on 9 July 2011 China, India and Malaysia have been the main investors in Sudan s oil industry in absence of the major Western investors --continued civil war and lawlessness in Nigeria Concern about the availability of Iranian oil/gas supplies due to the expanding UN-approved and unilateral sanctions on Iran and a threat of war in the Persian Gulf Concern about a Western effort to physically control the major oil/gas exporting countries taking advantage of the current situation (e.g., Libya) 30

31 VI. Asia s commitment to nuclear energy in the post-fukushima era b. Affordability concern: unavailability of oil, gas and coal at affordable prices in a sustainable manner -- end of cheap fossil energy, particularly oil Growing cost of fossil energy especially oil and gas Growing cost of coal in Asia due to the growing need for cheap energy, depletion of oil/gas resources and Japan s more use of coal in the post- Fukushima era. High oil prices to last in the foreseeable future due to various reasons particularly high demands and political uncertainties in many oil-producing countries. c. Environmental concern: Necessity of mitigating global warming requiring a major reduction in oil, gas and coal consumption, which is not happening at the needed scale despite impressive efforts in China, India, Japan and South Korea 31

32 VI. Asia s commitment to nuclear energy in the post-fukushima era 4. Absence of environmentally-clean alternative to nuclear energy for largescale electricity generation Wind, solar, wave and tidal energy are all necessary but unable to generate large-scale electricity due to their technological underdevelopment Biomass generates CO 2 Biofuel: false promise for its production process is extremely pollutive and energy/water intensive Source: 1. Photo of the Year in Sweden award, a bio-fuel factory in Brazil making environmentally-friendly fuel for the European market 2. Forest fire in Indonesia, Beawiharta/Reuters, March 2009, 3. Haze and dust particles enveloped the Singapore city skyline, September 2011, singapore-haze-season/ 32

33 VII. Japan s eventual rehabilitation of its nuclear power sector A. Importance of nuclear energy for Japan 2011 reactors 1. Nuclear energy: accounting for 30% of its electricity generation before March 2. Shortage of electricity due to the closure of all the Japanese nuclear power Source: 1. Author s creation based on Electricity/Heat in Japan in 2009, IEA Power outages in Tokyo area after Fukushima, 33

34 VII. Japan s eventual rehabilitation of its nuclear power sector 3. Absence of environmentally-clean alternative to nuclear energy to generate large-scale electricity 4. Unsustainability of the current dependence on mainly fossil energy for electricity generation for financial, security and environmental reasons Heavy financial burden Sudden increase in oil, gas and coal imports to generate electricity Increasing vulnerability of Japan to political and military developments in its supplying region Growing CO 2 emissions 5. Feasibility of safe operation of nuclear reactors Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, 34

35 VII. Japan s eventual rehabilitation of its nuclear power sector B. Current situation and trends - New Japanese Prime Minister (Yoshihiko Noda): Shift towards rehabilitating the nuclear energy sector -Resumption of operation of two reactors in July (No. 3 and 4 reactors at the Oi Nuclear power plant, west Japan) - Japan will gradually re-operationalize its nuclear reactors excluding those, which cannot be upgraded to withstand tsunamis at an acceptable cost, and build new ones 35

36 VIII. Nuclear energy as a necessity for Asia Asia must further diversify its energy mix in a sustainable manner to meet its growing energy demand Nuclear energy is a necessity along with environmentally-friendly renewables Evidence suggests that Asia will remain the main scene for nuclear energy expansion despite the Fukushima incident 36

37 Thank you for paying attention! 37