Scenarios for future emissions of air pollutants in China

Transcription

1 TF HTAP / TFIAM Workshop on Global Emissions Scenarios to 2050 Scenarios for future emissions of air pollutants in China Shuxiao Wang IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria February 12, 2015

2 Outline Introduction of THU emission scenarios Comparison with CLE & NFC scenarios Implementation of additional control measures Uncertainties in the future projections Available information on costs for control measures

3 Introduction of scenario design Timeline: 2020, 2030 Pollutants: SO 2, NOx, PM, OC, BC, NMVOCs, NH 3 Scenarios Energy strategy End-of-pipe Control Strategy Business as usual (BAU) End-of-pipe control (EOP) Alternative energy policy + End of pipe control (ENE+EOP) Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) Current legislation and enforcement (as of the end of 2010) Current legislation and enforcement (as of the end of 2010) New energy-saving policies are released and enforced more stringently New energy-saving policies are released and enforced more stringently Current legislation and enforcement (as of the end of 2010) New pollution control policies are implemented, representing progressive approach towards future environmental policies Same as EOP Technically feasible control technologies would be fully applied by 2030

4 China s emissions under different scenarios NOx 36% -39% -56% -72% BAU EOP ENE+EOP MFR 26% -25% SO 2-53% -66% Wang, S. X., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys BAU EOP ENE+EOP MFR

5 China s emissions under different scenarios -8% -38% PM % -79% BAU EOP ENE+EOP MFR NMVOC 27% -11% -27% -55% Wang, S. X., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys BAU EOP ENE+EOP MFR

6 Outline Introduction of THU emission scenarios Comparison with CLE & NFC scenarios Implementation of additional control measures Uncertainties in the future projections Available information on costs for control measures

7 Comparison with NFC & CLE scenarios 40,000 SO2 40,000 NO X 35,000 35,000 Emissions/kt 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 IIASA-NFC IIASA-CLE Thu-BAU Thu-EOP Emissions/kt 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Total emission control plan since 2011 IIASA-NFC IIASA-CLE Thu-BAU Thu-EOP 5,000 5, ,000 PM 2.5 2,500 BC Emissions/kt 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 IIASA-NFC IIASA-CLE Thu-BAU Thu-EOP Emissions/kt 2,000 1,500 1,000 IIASA-NFC IIASA-CLE Thu-BAU Thu-EOP 4, ,

8 Emission by sector: Power plant Energy technology Grate boilers 8% 1% Pulverized coal combustion Fluidized bed combustion 85% 91% 7% 8% Control technology CYC (PM) WET (PM) WET (PM) 8 0 ESP (PM) HED (PM) 0 7 Implementation of new emission standard WET (PM) 8 0 ESP (PM)

9 Emission by sector: Transportation

10 Emission by sector: Industry New emission standards released after 2010 Different BC/PM2.5 New emission standards released after 2010 New emission standards released after 2010

11 Emission by sector: Residential 5,000 SO 2 1,600 NO X Emissions/kt 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, IIASA-CLE Thu-BAU Emissions/kt 1,400 1,200 1, IIASA-CLE Thu-BAU ,000 PM 2.5 1,400 BC 6,000 1,200 Emissions/kt 5,000 Coal consumption, 4, ,000 IIASA-CLE Thu-BAU Emissions/kt 1,000 Biofuel consumption, IIASA-CLE Thu-BAU 2,000 CLE: reduce 29.1% 1, CLE: reduce 50.5% BAU: increase 38.6% BAU: reduce 37.1%

12 Outline Introduction of THU emission scenarios Comparison with CLE & NFC scenarios Implementation of additional control measures Uncertainties in the future projections Available information on costs for control measures

13 Power generation technologies MFR: aggressive development of non-fossil power, retirement of small coalfired power plants, and promotion of advanced coal-fired power. 35% 20% 45% THU-BAU THU-MFR Share of power generation technologies

14 Technologies for industry Industry Technology BAU MFR Crude steel Arc furnace Cement industry Share of energy-efficient production technologies Precalcined kiln<4000t/d Precalcined kiln>4000t/d Glass production Float process Coke production Machine coke oven Caustic soda Ion-exchange production membrane process Soda production Combined-soda process Nitric acid production Dual-pressure process Industrial boiler CFB

15 End-of-pipe control for power & industry Coal-fired power plants Precalcined cement kiln 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% LNB+SCR LNB+SNCR LNB 70% 60% 50% 40% LNB+SCR LNB+SNCR LNB 30% 20% NOC 30% 20% NOC 10% 10% 0% 0% THU-MFR THU-MFR Industrial process Glass production Brick production Control technology Base year MFR CYC WET ESP HED CYC WET ESP HED

16 Transportation sector BAU MFR

17 Cooking and hot water in residential sector Urban THU-BAUTHU-MFR Rural THU-BAUTHU-MFR Energy tech. Control technology Base year MFR CYC (PM) Residential boilers WET (PM) HED (PM) Briquette utilization (SO 2 ) Coal stoves advanced coal stove Biomass stoves advanced biomass stove Biomass pellet stove

18 Outline Introduction of THU emission scenarios Comparison with CLE & NFC scenarios Implementation of additional control measures Uncertainties in the future projections Available information on costs for control measures

19 Uncertainty of the GDP growth rate If the GDP growth rate was one percent higher (HGDP) or one percent lower (LGDP), the total NO X emissions will be 7.5%-9.0% higher (or lower) than the corresponding scenarios.

20 High uncertainty in energy consumption other renewable hydro nuclear oil&gas coal THU-BAU THU-MFR Chinese Academy of Engineer, 2011 BAU Coal Other renewable & nuclear % 8.3% % 8.9% MFR % 15.8% Coal Oil & gas other renewable & nuclear % 27% 9% % 28% 19% % 26% 32% By 2050, the non-fossil energy will account for 66% of total energy. (China Energy Research Institute, 2014)

21 Impacts of policy enforcement failure 13%-29% higher If the control of heavy-duty diesel vehicle failed (HDF), i.e. the NO X removal rates of Euro Ⅳ, Euro Ⅴ, and Euro Ⅵ were assumed to be 50%, 50%, and 75% respectively, NOx emissions would be 13-29% higher 1.2%-29% higher If 25% of the installed SCR system were not actually effectively operated in power plants, NOx emissions would be % higher.

22 Outline Introduction of THU emission scenarios Comparison with CLE & NFC scenarios Implementation of additional control measures Uncertainties in the future projections Available information on costs for control measures

23 Available cost information in China Energy technology/industrial process Control technology Power plant China local data Local data Transport China local data Euro I-IV:Local data Euro V-VI:European data Industry Residential Steel, cement, glass, brick: Local data Other industries: adapted from foreign data or estimated Expert estimates Steel, cement: Local data Other industries: adapted from foreign data or estimated Estimated from similar technologies in the industrial sector

24 Available cost information in China Available at

25 Thanks for your attention!

26 Policies considered in the reference scenario Energy saving policies: GDP per capita should be over 20,000 USD (at 2005 price) National Population Development Strategy CO 2 intensity would be 40%-45% lower in 2020 than that of 2005 Medium and Long Term Development Plan for Renewable Energy Medium and Long Term Development Plan for Nuclear Power Special Plan for Medium and Long Term Energy Conservation National Natural Gas Utilization Policy The Residential Target for Building a Well-off Society Limits of Fuel Consumption for Passenger Vehicles (Stage I, II) Limits of Fuel Consumption for Light Duty Commercial Vehicles (Stage I, II) Pollution control legislation: Integrated Emission Standard ofair pollutants (GB ) Emission Standard ofair Pollutants for Thermal Power Plants (GB ) Emission Standard of Air Pollutants for Cement Industry (GB ) Emission Standard of Air Pollutants for Industrial Kiln and Furnace (GB ) Emission Standard of Air Pollutants for Coal-burning Oil-burning Gas-burning boilers (GB ) Vehicle Emission Standards (Stage I-IV for light duty vehicles; Stage I-V for heavy duty diesel vehicles; Stage I-II for motorcycles; Stage I-II for non-road mobile machine) Emission standard of air pollutant for bulk gasoline terminals, gasoline transport, and gasoline terminals (GB , GB , GB ) Limit of harmful substances of adhesives, interior architectural coatings, and solvent coatings for woodenware (GB , GB , GB )

27 Driving forces and service demand Items GDP (2005 price)/10 9 CHY Population/billion Urbanization rate/% Power generation/twh Share of coal-fired power generation/% Thermal efficiency of coal-fired power plants/% Crude steel production/mt Cement production/mt Urban residential building area per capita/m Rural residential building area per capita/m Vehicle population per 1000 persons Share of new and renewable energy/% a CO 2 emission per GDP/(t/10 6 CHY) a including hydro power, solar energy, wind energy, ocean energy, and nuclear energy; excluding biomass.

28 Emission by sector: Industry

29 Projection of the energy consumptions BAU EOP ENE+EOP MFR BAU EOP ENE+EOP MFR Industry Transportation Coal Other renewable & nuclear BAU EOP BAU EOP ENE+EOP MFR ENE+EOP MFR