Energy and environmental impacts of fuels used in the residential sector

Transcription

1 Energy and environmental impacts of fuels used in the residential sector Maria Rosa Virdis and Maria Gaeta Unità Studi e Strategie ENEA Roma, 11 November 2015

2 Summary Background Objectives of this study Methodological approach Energy scenarios Impacts on emission scenarios Concentration maps to 2030 Impacts on fiscal revenues Conclusions 2

3 Background: the context European and Italian energy policies pursue several objectives including energy dependence reduction, greater energy efficiency and climate change mitigation. In general policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the energy system and increasing the use of renewable energy sources often present synergies with respect to energy dependence reduction, lower environmental impacts (especially air quality) and development of innovative industries. Such synergies, however, cannot be taken for granted: the impacts of each policy on other parts of the system should be analyzed in an integrated perspective, and with the support of appropriate tools, in order to limit conflicts with other objectives of equal importance. 3

4 Background : policies The EU Package in 2009 set objectives for As a result: Directive EC/2009/28 on renewables transposed in the italian legislation. National Action Plans for Renewable energies (PAN) and Energy Efficiency (PAEE). Elaboration of specific policy measures in support of renewables. The 2013 National Energy Strategy for 2020 identifies renewable energy sources (RES) among the main priorities for action, setting for the power sector more ambitious targets than those set in the PAN and promoting thermal renewables. Cover with RES a 19-20% share of gross final energy consumption by Part of this contribution could be provided by thermal renewables (about 11 Mtoe/yr) including, besides solar thermal and heat pumps, a portion supplied by biomass as a fuel for boilers, closed fireplaces and stoves. In home heating, the replacement of fossil fuels with biomass (conventionally considered as carbon neutral) is encouraged. 4

5 Background: a few facts In Italy we use much more biomass in home heating than previously thought. o A survey by ISTAT on Households energy consumption (2014), estimates the amount of biomass used in the residential sector in 2013 at about 19 Mt (of which 17.5 Mt consisting of wood and 1.5 Mt of pellets). About half of the wood use is unrecorded as it escapes market transactions. A more favorable fiscal treatment is accorded to wood biomass and pellets. Atmospheric pollutants concentrations (including PM) are still too high in some areas of Italy, despite the adoption of fairly stringent European and national regulations on emissions from industrial plants and vehicles. The impact of air pollutants concentrations on the diffusion of respiratory diseases in humans is recognized by several epidemiological surveys and studies conducted worldwide by the WHO. The VIIAS study estimates about premature deaths in Italy to be due solely to fine particulate (PM2.5). 5

6 Background Concentration maps for PM2.5 in 2010* Particularly sensitive areas in the Po valley, Lazio and Campania 2010 *ENEA Elaboration using GAINS_IT (20kmx20km), based on estimated emission of PM 2.5 in

7 Objectives of this study Assess the impact of recent energy and climate mitigation (decarbonization) policies on the energy system, particularly on heating uses in the residential and tertiary sector. Examine and assess the environmental and economic (mainly those related to fiscal revenues) impacts of those policies. Identify potential conflicts (and measure their extent) between decarbonization objectives and air quality improvement targets in some of the climate mitigation policies. 7

8 In this study ENEA analyzes CO 2 emissions reduction policies, with a focus on: energy system impacts (including technology related aspects), environmental impacts looking both at CO 2 emissions and air quality effects, impacts on fiscal revenues. The analysis has been conducted making use of modeling tools: Methodological approach The energy system model TIMES Italy, used to elaborate energy scenarios, The integrated assessment model GAINS-Italy, which estimates emission reduction trajectories for SO 2, NO x, NMVOC, PM2.5, and related pollutant concentration maps with a spatial resolution of 20 kmx20 km. 8

9 Methodological approach OUTPUT ENERGY SCENARIO PIL Fuel price Resource Potential TIMES_IT* BEN Mix energetico FER Tecnologie CO2 Emission Inventory Nn-energy activity Control Strategy Energy activity scenario GAINS_IT** EMISSION SCENARIO PM 2.5 SO2 NOx NMVOC PM 2.5 NO2 * Gaeta, M., Baldissara, B., Il modello energetico Times-Italia: struttura e dati versione ** D Elia, I., Peschi, E., Lo scenario emissivo nazionale nella negoziazione internazionale 9

10 Energy scenarios impacts Scenario Definition Reference Scenario (RIF) Projects the energy system s evolution based on current legislation and on existing demographic, technological and economic trends. It assumes implementation of EU 2020 emission objectives and constraints on the ETS sector and of the provisions of the National Energy Strategy (SEN) for Constant Biomass Scenario (BIOcost). Allows reaching the same CO 2 emissions reduction as the Reference scenario but with a different fuel mix, i.e. assuming a biomass consumption level no greater than the one estimated by the ISTAT survey on Households energy consumption, 2014 (about 19 Mt of biomass). In all other respects the BIOcost scenario follows the provisions of the National Energy Strategy (SEN). Decarbonization Scenario (DEC) Measures the impact on the energy system of a 36% CO 2 emissions reduction with respect to 2005 levels based on the lower end of the reduction range estimated for Italy in the Impact Assessment of the EC Communication A policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 up to

11 Mt CO2 Energy scenario impacts Sectors contribution to CO2 emissions reduction (DEC vs RIF) % 42% RIF Transport sector Domestic & Tertiary Industry Power sector DEC % 12% The BioCost scenario, by construction achieves the same emission levels as the RIF scenario 11

12 Mtoe Energy scenario impacts Total Primary Energy Supply by energy source, Mtoe storico storico RIF BIOcost DEC Electr. net import Renewable Biomass & Waste Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Oil prod. Solid fuel Renewable energy sources cover between 22 and 28% of primary energy needs by

13 TWh Energy scenario impacts Power generation by source, TWh Nat. Gas Oil prod. Coal Geoth. Biomass PV Wind Hydro RIF 2030 BIOcost 2030 DEC 2030 The DEC scenario shows a significant replacement of natural gas with electric renewables, particularly PV and biomass. 13

14 Mtoe Energy scenario impacts Final consumption by sector, , Mtoe Transport Tertiary Domestic Industry 20 0 Historical data RIF Biocost DEC

15 Mtoe Domestic and Tertiary sector Energy consumption by fuel in the Residential and Tertiary sector*, Mtoe Year 2010: At the time this study was finalized the revision of the time series on wood consumption was not yet available. Therefore, based on new data from the recent ISTAT survey, an estimate of residential wood consumption was made storico 2013 RIF 2030 BIOcost 2030 DEC 2030 District Heating RES Biomass LPG Heating gas oil Other oil prod Nat. Gas Electricity Coal *Oil products consumption in agriculture is excluded 15

16 Emission scenario impacts Current policies and new energy and climate objectives to 2030 are orientated towards the energy system s decarbonization. It is important to analyze energy policies and related not only with respect to CO2 emissions but also paying attention to other main atmospheric pollutants to prevent a worsening of air quality. 16

17 Emission scenario impacts Once the energy scenario input from TIMES_IT, economic activity scenario inputs and the control strategy are provided to the GAINS-Italy model, and emission estimates for the base year are harmonized, the model elaborates an emission scenario for main air pollutants (PM2.5, SO2, NOX, NMVOC). This presentation shows PM2.5 emissions only Base year 2010: pending the elaboration by ISPRA of emission changes following the revised estimates of wood consumption, PM2.5 emissions related to wood combustion in the residential sector in 2010 have been estimated by ENEA considering estimated 2010 energy data as mentioned in the previous note, as well as emission factors and current technologies as in the national emission inventories elaborated by ISPRA. 17

18 Emission scenario impacts Control Strategy In the elaboration of all emission scenarios for the residential sector, a diffusion of emission abatement technologies as in the Current Legislation (CLE), consistently with the GAINS-It scenario elaborated for the revision of the Goteborg Protocol, has been assumed. The CLE control strategy represents the body of abatement technology measures that is assumed will be introduced during the reference time frame. It is expressed in terms of market shares of each control technology by sector, fuel, and energy or industrial process technology. Distribution of wood biomass technologies(%) Domestic sector Fireplaces Stoves Source: ENEA, ISPRA CLE Control Strategy wood biomass combustion (%) Technology % Open Fireplace Improved Fireplace Traditional stove Improved stove Pellet stove Source: ENEA, ISPRA 18

19 kg/gj g/gj kg/gj kg/gj coal coal 0.06 wood and similar wood and similar Emission scenario impacts Average Emission Factors by fuel national inventory ISPRA 0.12 NOx m. waste residual oil kerosene natural gas NMVOC m. waste residual oil 0.05 LPG kerosene natural gas LPG coal Non Industrial Combustion coal wood and similar wood and similar SO m. waste residual oil 9.6 PM m. waste residual oil kerosene natural gas LPG Source: ISPRA kerosene natural gas LPG 19

20 kt/year PM2.5 Emission scenario impacts PM 2.5 emissions by sector, SNAP, Agriculture Waste treatment and disposal Other mobile sources and machinery Road transport Extraction and distribution of fossil fuels and geothermal energy Production processes Combustion in manufacturing industry Non-industrial combustion plants By 2030 the residential and tertiary sector represent 59-62% of total fine particulate emissions estimated 2030 RIF 2030 Bio cost 2030 DEC Combustion in energy and transformation industries Emission data for 2010 have been estimated by the model, according to biomass consumption hypotheses in line with the ISTAT 2014 survey 20

21 Emission scenario impacts PM2.5 emission in domestic and tertiary sector, , kt kt PM estimated RIF 2030 BIOcost 2030 DEC 2030 Coal Natural gas Other oil prod LPG Wood Biomass Over 99% of PM 2.5 emissions in the residential and tertiary sectors is due to wood biomass combustion 21

22 Concentration maps To understand how the future energy system s configuration can influence the concentration levels of PM2.5, concentration maps for this pollutant at a scale of 20kmx20km have been elaborated with the GAINS-Italy model, scaling input energy data at regional level. This regionalization process has been updated for biomass energy consumption based on the regional data provided by the ISTAT 2014 survey. Concentration maps provide average annual values for each pollutant (i.e. averaging with respect to seasonal peaks or daily variations) and are the result of the interaction between emissions from all energy sectors, taking into account meteo-climatic conditions that influence pollutant dispersion in the atmosphere. In this study, concentration maps have been computed for years 2020 and 2030 assuming average-year meteorological conditions. 22

23 Concentration maps 2030 RIF_CLE 2030 Biocost 2030 DEC 2030 REF 2030 Biocost Scenarios examined show that overall emissions of pollutants like fine particulate decrease by 2030 as a result of improvements in adopted technologies and of measures applied mainly in the transport sector; reductions are more contained wherever an increase in wood biomass use in the residential sector takes place. 23

24 Fiscal impacts for the residential sector Cumulated fiscal revenues by scenario and fuel, * (M ) Carbone RIF BIOCost DEC Pellets Legna Olio combustibile Gasolio riscaldamento Benzina e altre frazioni leggere di petrolio GPL Gas Naturale Energia Elettrica Totale * Cumulated values Assuming invariance of the current energy taxation regime, in a progressive decarbonization context, fiscal revenues from energy products would decrease. As wood biomass is not subject to excise taxes and VAT taxes on wood are facilited, caeteris paribus an increase of biomass use for heating purposes displacing natural gas and oil products would strengthen that negative effect on revenues. 24

25 Conclusions Energy and climate policies can be made more robust using a multidisciplinary and integrated assessment approach that takes into consideration also environmental, economic and fiscal aspects. What is needed is an overall sustainability perspective, pursuing climate mitigation goals together with air quality objectives and looking also at technological innovation aspects and at the overall competitiveness of the Italian economy. Incentives are needed for research and innovation on more effective particulate abatement systems, or for the deployment of more energy efficient and less polluting technologies. Greater attention should be paid to environmentally sensitive areas and specific local circumstances, discouraging the use of fuels and technologies that are liable to increase the level of fine particulate emissions in areas already at risk. 25

26 Thank you for your attention