Solar Energy: The Sustainable Energy Mix Cornerstone for Saudi Arabia

Transcription

1 Solar Energy: The Sustainable Energy Mix Cornerstone for Saudi Arabia

2 تنشأ مدينة علمية تسمى عبداهلل الملك مدينة في 3 جمادى األولى 1431 ه والمتجددة. الذرية للطاقة األمر الملكي رقم أ/ 35...there shall be established a scientific city to be called, King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy Royal Order No. A/35 3/5/1431 A.H. 2

3 Target Capacity by 2032 Optimizing Energy Generation with Alternative Energy Economic Sector Development Nuclear 17 GW Renewable 54 GW 3

4 % of Electricity Generated from Alternative Energy Today vs Today 2030 EU-27 37% % KSA 0% % US 23% % China 2% % India 4% % Renewables Nuclear 4

5 Solar Energy Development Targets 5

6 Target Solar Capacity by 2032 Maximizing solar deployment potential Installed Capacity (GW) Energy Generation* (TWh/y) Hydrocarbon Fuel Saved** (MMBOE/y) Solar PV Solar CSP * Load factor: PV = , CSP = ** Average hydrocarbon plant efficiency = 45% 6

7 RE Capacity Installed by Technology GW in KSA % of Rest Middle East & Africa Wind PV Biomass 2 CSP Geothermal 29% 37% 27% 68% 33% KSA % of World 1% 4% 2% 36% 3% KSA Rest of Middle East Africa Rest of the World 7

8 GW Solar Energy Deployment Roadmap Cumulative installed capacity, GW Solar CSP Solar PV Years 8

9 The Case for Alternative Energy 9

10 Energy Consumption Patterns Total of 193,472 GWH Commercial 12.2% Agricultural 2.6% Industrial 17.9% Building 79.5% Governmental 15.1% Residential 52.2% 70% consumed by HVAC Source: Saudi Electricity Company (SEC)

11 GW Peak Power Demand Will Nearly Triple in Next 20 Years GW YIC System SOA Remote SOA System WOA Remote WOA System COA Remote COA System EOA Remote EOA System Source: ECRA

12 GW Creating Tremendous Capacity Gap Gap between peak demand and existing + planned capacity 140 Peak Demand 120 v v New Committed Existing Diesel 100 v Existing HFO GW (Approx.) v v Existing Crude Existing Gas Year 12

13 Business As Usual: KSA s Petroleum Demand Expected to Nearly Triple by 2032 Could impact ability to meet international oil demand * MBOE MBOE *Total local consumption (transportation, industry, electricity, etc.) Source: Saudi Aramco

14 Maximizing Return Oil Saved Economic Sector Sustainability How Much Can We Do? Demand Growth Demand Pattern Technology Characteristics How Much Should We Do? Economics Sustainability Technology maturity 14

15 Summary of Saudi Arabia s Alternative Energy Program CONTRIBUTES to a sustainable future for Saudi Arabia PRESERVES non-renewable fossil fuel resources SAFEGUARDS Saudi Arabia s international energy leadership ENSURES greater long-term global energy market stability TRANSFORMS KSA into the Kingdom of Sustainable Energy 15

16 K A CARE Mandate 16

17 Established by Royal Order April 17, 2010, the Mission is to be: The driving force for making atomic and renewable energy an integral part of a national sustainable energy mix, creating and leveraging the competitive advantages of relevant technologies for the social and economic development of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 17

18 Key K.A.CARE Objectives CREATE a sustainable economic sector for Saudi Arabia anchored by local alternative energy demand market CONTRIBUTE to job creation, GDP growth, environmental footprint reduction and sustainable development MAINTAIN highest levels of safety, security and transparency 18

19 Policies & Strategies Execution Regulatory Investment & Business R&D & Innovation Internation al Relations Human Capacity Mandate K.A.CARE City 19

20 Execution of K.A.CARE Mandate SUGGEST alternative energy mix Sustainable and efficient energy future for KSA DEVELOP & LEAD execution plans PLAN for and BUILD physical city 20

21 Selecting the Optimum Energy Mix 21

22 Parameters Affecting Energy Mix Development Value chain development Economics of hydrocarbons saved Energy Mix Electricity and desalination demand patterns Human capacity development Regulatory and physical infrastructure requirements Technology choices 22

23 Criteria for Solar Energy Economic Sector Sustainable Development Incentivize Manufacturing and Services Industry, Coupled with Incentivizing R&D, Innovation, and Human Capacity Development Creating Industry Pull through Incentivize production of Solar Kwh, both for Utility Scale and Distributed Applications Target Long Term Developmental Goals by Reducing Significantly KSA s Greenhouse Gases Emissions in Power Generation as well as in Manufacturing 23

24 MW Annual Electricity Demand Pattern in KSA Seasonal change in peak load exceeds 40% Week Number (July 2009 August 2010) 24

25 GW Day-Night Load Variation for Saudi Arabia Uniform day-to-night variation year round Day Night 25

26 GW Generation Forecasted Daily Electricity Demand Pattern v v Demand Peak load Base load 80 Daily load during a work day in August Daily load during a holiday in January : : : : : 0 0 Time of Day 26

27 Capacity Identification Using Technology Load Matching Approach Start with known hydrocarbon capacity in target year X: (Existing + Committed Retiring) Solar PV Solar CSP Nuclear + Wind + Waste-to-Energy + Geothermal Load Following Base Load Required Additional Capacity 27

28 Technology Installed Capacity Estimation 2032 Start with known hydrocarbon capacity in year 2032: 60.5 GW 16 GW 25 GW 17 GW 9 GW 3 GW 1 GW Load Following Base Load = 60.5 GW Source: ECRA, SEC, Team Analysis 28

29 Proposed Energy Mix Solar PV Solar CSP Hydrocarbons Nuclear + Geothermal + Waste-to-Energy 16 GW 25 GW 21 GW 29

30 Load-Specific Technology Component of the Proposed Energy Mix by 2032 PV will meet total day time demand year round NUCLEAR + GEOTHERMAL + WASTE-TO- ENERGY will meet base-load demand up to night time demand during winter CSP with storage will meet maximum demand difference between PV and base-load technologies HYDROCARBONS will meet the rest of the demand 30

31 Solar Value Chain Development 31

32 Global Solar PV Energy Trends Electricity cost of ~10 c$/kwh in 2020 ~7 c$/kwh in GW installed in 2020 (10x) Solar electricity costs - utility scale PV (c$/kwh) Global installed capacity (GWp) 32

33 Solar CSP LCOE Today Ouarzazate Concentrated Solar Power IPP in Morocco: Capacity = 160 MW Technology = Parabolic Trough with storage Levelized tariff = c/kwh 33

34 Manufacturing, EPC and O&M split % total capex and opex throughout the plant lifetime Other Molten salt HTF Steam generator Turbine Structures Absorber Mirrors Other Molten salt Steam turbine Receptor Mirrors Structures Other Module Cell Polysilicon Integrated module manufacturing Integrated module manufacturing Other Nacelle housing Generator Gearbox Rotor blades Tower Other Condenser Pre-heater Cooling tower Turbine EPC Turbine Other & generator Fuel & ash handling Air pollution control Boiler Rest of manufacturing EPC 40 EPC EPC EPC EPC EPC O&M 20 0 O&M O&M EPC O&M O&M O&M CSP Trough CSP Tower Silicon PV Thin Film PV HCPV Wind Geothermal Waste-toenergy O&M O&M Core Localization 34 Localization not considered for industrial impact

35 Potential RE Value Chain Components CSP Technology 1 Trough Elements Collector Mirror Absorber EPC & O&M Molten Salts HTF Steam turbine and generator Storage Tank Other power block elements Minor elements PV Technology 3 Thin Film 4 HCPV Elements Integrated Module Factory EPC & O&M Inverter Rest of balance of system Integrated Module Factory Tracking System EPC & O&M Inverter Rest of balance of system Technology 6 Wind Elements Blades Towers EPC & O&M Gearbox Generator Power converter Nacelle housing and assembly Bearings Minor elements 2 Tower Heliostat Mirror EPC & O&M Receiver Molten Salts Steam turbine and generator Storage tank Other power block elements Minor elements 5 Silicon EPC & O&M Poly Silicon manufacturing Inverter Wafer Cell Module Rest of balance of system 7 8 Waste-to- Energy EPC & O&M Steam Turbine Boiler Grate Other power block elements Minor elements Geothermal EPC and O&M Steam Turbine Heat exchanger Condenser Minor elements 35

36 Value Chain Development Building a World-Class Solar Energy Sector: Industrial investment Research, development and innovation Technology development Education and training Human capacity development 36

37 Value Chain Development: Beyond the Solar Cell and the Mirror Electricity Generation Industrial Energy Applications Seawater Desalination & Water Management Applications District & Solar Cooling 37

38 Localization of Solar Industry Maximizing benefits of solar energy requires localization policies which depends highly on local skills and cooperation and JV s 38

39 Value Chain Activation Plan Value chain activation Value chain enablers 1 Value chain 2 Independent 3 Industrial 4 SME 5 FDI 6 Stakeholder 7 organization quality readiness program development attractiveness engagement and capacity building assurance authority (cost, quality, delivery) program and promotion communication Global 8 vendor engagement & qualification Alignment with current and planned national initiatives Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Capability gap assessment Identification & prioritization of preferred local suppliers 9 Readiness action plan Value Chain Opportunities Action plan evaluation and validation Assist in JV/ partner selection Step 6 Step 7 Monitor implementation Certification process assistance 10 Regulatory Leveraged 14 Feed-in tariff / 15 environment procurement PPA Development of R&D centers and programs Value chain interfaces Development of local human capabilities Bid preparation 16 Program and project structure 39

40 The Road to Successful Implementation 40

41 Economic Sub-Sector Engagement with Local Stakeholders MoHE, TVTC, SABIC, Aramco, HDF MCI, SAGIA, Chambers of Commerce, MODON, RCJY Commercial Banks KACST, KAUST, SABIC, Aramco, SWCC, SEC Human Capacity Development Value Chain Development Research, Development, and Innovation PPP Venture Capital Management Firms Commercial Banks MCI, SAGIA, Shura Council Technology Acquisition Policy, Rules and Regulations SIDF, PIF, SCB Incentives MODON, RCJY, MCIT, MoT Infrastructure 41

42 Economic Sub-Sector Engagement with International Stakeholders International universities and training institutions Export credit agencies, technology providers Battelle, Franhofer, CSIRO Human Capacity Development Value Chain Development Research, Development, and Innovation PPP Venture Capital Management Firms WTO, nuclear bilateral agreements Technology Acquisition Policy, Rules and Regulations Export credit agencies Incentives Multinational/international corporations Infrastructure 42

43 Economic Sub-Sector Clear Developmental Goals Saudization rate for solar energy service industry KSA world leader in CSP technology exports CSP development fully supported through local R&D Human Capacity Development Value Chain Development Research, Development, and Innovation PPP KSA ownership of world best performing CPV technology Technology and region-based FIT scheme Technology Acquisition Policy, Rules and Regulations Energy mix not needing incentives anymore Incentives Smart grid development and connectedness with MENA region countries Infrastructure 43

44 Economic Sub-Sector Implementation Roadmap: Prioritization 7 Research, Development, and Innovation Human Capacity Development 6 Value Chain Development Value Chain Development 5 Technology Acquisition Research, Development, and Innovation 4 Infrastructure Technology Acquisition 3 Human Capacity Development Policy, Rules and Regulations 2 Incentives Incentives 1 Policy, Rules and Regulations Infrastructure 44

45 Time Human Capacity Development Technology Acquisition Infrastructure Incentives Research, Development, and Innovation Value Chain Development Implementation Roadmap: Sequencing Sustaining sector development Strategic objectives Human Capacity Development Sector transition to maturity Value Chain Development Research, Development, and Technology Technology Acquisition Sowing the seeds of sector development Policy, Rules and Regulations Incentives Key prerequisites Policy, Rules and Regulations Infrastructure 45

46 The Kingdom of Sustainable Energy 46

47 Thank You 47