Nuclear Energy in the Near Future in Mexico

Transcription

1 LAS-ANS 2015 Symposium, July, 2015, Santiago de Chile. Nuclear Energy in the Near Future in Mexico L. Paredes-Gutiérrez, G. Alonso-Vargas, C. J. Palacios-Hernández Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Nucleares

2 Creation of the National Nuclear Energy Commission National Nuclear Energy Institute Nuclear Power in Mexico CNSNS (Regulatory Body) ININ (R&D) Uramex (Extinguished) Nuclear Law modification Milestones Extended Power Uprate (EPU) project at Laguna Verde Nuclear energy considerd clean energy Nuclear Power remains state owned August 14th Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) Start Up TRIGA Mark III Construction of Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant Ley Reglamentaria del Artículo 27 Constitucional en materia nuclear (currently in force) Commercial operation Laguna Verde Units I & II New CFE Law New law for electricity

3 Institutional Framework for nuclear energy Head of Nuclear Sector - Energy Policy - Energy Strategy (ENE) - Electricity Outlook (PSELEC) ININ Research and development CNSNS Regulatory Body Federal Electricity Comission Company - Planning (POISE) - Generation - Transmission - Nuclear Power New 2014 Law Head of Nuclear Sector - Energy Policy - Energy Strategy (ENE) - Planning Electricity Sector ININ Research and development CNSNS Regulatory Body Federal Electricity Company - Generation - Transmission - Distribution - Nuclear Power

4 Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant Owner /Operator CFE Two identical BWR GE BWR/5 Unit 1 since july 1990 Unit 2 since april 1995 Thermal Capacity 2027 MW (Original 1931 MW, now 2317 MW at 120%) Reference Power 665 MWe (each reactor). Net Desgin capacity MWe CNLV represents 3.08% as total installed capacity in the country, and represents 4.6% of the country's generated electrical energy on 2013.

5 Laguna Verde participation in the electricity system 5,5% 3,8% 4,3% 3,7% 4,4% 3,5% 4,9% 3,3% 5,2% 3,1% 4,4% 5,0% 2,9% 2,9% 4,9% 2,8% 4,5% 4,5% 4,2% 3,9% 2,7% 2,7% 2,6% 2,6% 2,6% 2,4% 3,4% 3,1% 4,6% 2,6% % de Capacidad Instalada %de Generación Nacional ININ from SENER -CFE data Prospectiva del Sector Eléctrico

6 Electricity Generation in Mexico USERS POPULATION Inhabitants 103 millions Users 26 millions 1.2% p.a. x0.1 Users are growing more and faster than inhabitants x0.4 Inhabitants 117 millions Users 36 millions Fuente: CONAPO, CFE Electricity Generation 201,059 MWh 287,859 MWh 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Termoeléctrica Ciclo combinado Dual Carboeléctrica Hidroeléctrica Nucleoeléctrica Geotermoeléctrica Eoloeléctrica Solar Fotovoltaica

7 Technologies in the Mexican Electric System 2013 INSTALLED CAPACITY 53,664 MW GENERATION 257,860 MWh CC 36,82% Dual 5,18% Hydro 21,45% Wind 1,11% Solar PV 0,01% Coal 4,84% Nuclear 3,00% Geoth 1,53% CC 49,02% Dual 6,04% Hydro 10,64% Wind Solar PV 0,70% 0,01% Coal 6,22% Nuclear 4,58% Geoth 2,35% Thermal 20,43% Thermal 26,05% ININ data from CFE

8 Public Opinion in Mexico Agree: Use nuclear energy for electricity generation MUY DE ACUERDO / DE ACUERDO MUY EN DESACUERDO / EN DESACUERDO NO CONTESTÓ Dic 2006 Dic 2008 Dic 2013 Agree: Build new nuclear power plants in México Muy de acuerdo/de acuerdo Muy en desacuerdo/en desacuerdo No sabe ININ CFE Survey 2006, 2008, 2013 dic-06 dic-08 dic-13

9 ENE ENE POISE NEP NUCLEAR ENERGY IN MEXICO

10 National Energy Program , Electricity Sector II.2 Objective "Balancing the portfolio of primary energy sources in order to increase energy security." II.2.2 Strategy. "Analyzing the feasibility of extending the nuclear electricity generation, under international standards of safety and operational reliability, contributing to the sustainable development of the country". Action line: Develop studies to determine whether to implement a program that drives the expansion of generating electricity including nuclear technology". Based on the work carried out by the Committee of support for decision-making in the field of nuclear energy. Integrated by the SENER (who presides over it), the CFE, the ININ, CNSNS and IIE.

11 Diversify energy mix giving priority to non fossil fuels ENE ENE Economic and productive efficiency Environmental Sustainability Energy Security Increase the participation of non-fossil fuels in electricity generation to 35%. LAERFTE 2012 (Law for Renewables and Energety Transition) Fossil fuels in electricity generation should have a maximum of 65% in 2024, 60% in 2035 and 50% in LSPEE 2014 (Electric Service Law) Production should take advantage of lower electricity cost (considering environmental externalities), stability and security on service.

12 ENE Diversify energy mix giving priority to non fossil fuels

13 ENE Planning scenarios Installed Capacity 2012: 52,534 MW 2026: 93,502 MW Technology Scenario Bussines as usual Combined Cycle Wind Nuclear 49,837 MW installed capacity 7,667 MW MW installed capacity 1,590 MW de installed capacity (same as now) Wind power stations replace combined cycles. Nuclear power plants replace combined cycle. ENE1 ENE2 Excludes 10,661 MW of CC (15 o 16 proyectos de alrededor de 700 MW) Addition of 28,413 MW (248 wind farms 100 MW each). Backup: Adding 7,857 MW gas turbine Same capacity installed that in the BAU scenario Same capacity installed that in the BAU scenario Addition of 10,753 MW (equivalent to 7 to 8 nuclear plants) Nuclear and wind power replace combined cycle. ENE3 Addition of 20,968 MW (209 wind farms 100 MW each) Backing: 5,792 MW gas turbines are added Adding 2,790 MW (equivalent to two nuclear power plants)

14 ENE Analisys Scenarios comparison Emissions Energy Security Price Fuel supply Better ENE-2 ENE-2 ENE-2 ENE-3 ENE-3 ENE-3 ENE-1 ENE-1 ENE-1 Less acceptable BAU BAU BAU Gramos de CO2/kWh Inercial ENE1 CO 2 Emissions ENE ENE Inercial Scenario Cost ENE ENE ENE3 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 5,79% 6,94% Inercial fuel supply security 5,44% 5,09% 5,34% Increasing nuclear energy share in the power generation portfolio could be necessary to meet the goals of the energy policy. in Mexico ENE ENE ENE3

15 Strategic Theme 10 Diversify and optimize the generation park Strategic Theme 16. Define the scope of the nuclear program to expand nuclear capacity in Mexico

16 Net Electricity Generation CFE Planning Scenario 2012 Real 261,895 GWh 2027 Planeación 458,784 GWh WIND 0.50% GEOTH 2.20% NUCLEAR 3.30% COAL 13.00% THERMO conventional 20.60% HYDRO 12.00% CC 45.60% NUCLEAR 2.92% COAL 7.35% WIND 3.15% GEOTH 2.10% THERMO conventonal 1.75% HYDRO 10.38% Coque 0,58% NGL 2/ 2,68% TCL 1/ 3,85% Solar 0,01% CC 64.75% Turbogas 2,40% Combustión interna 0,40% Combustión interna 0,23% Turbogas 0,23% 1 Tecnología de carbón Limpio 2 Nueva Generación Limpia. Nucleoeléctrica o renovable

17 Strategic Theme 16. Define the scope of the nuclear program to expand nuclear capacity in Mexico TOPIC Planning Oriented to Diversification ACTION LINE To elaborate a technical proposal in order to implement a nuclear program that allows the diversity in the generation mix RESPONSIBLE SENER, CFE Strengthening Regulatory Strengthen regulatory commissions, both the CRE as CNSNS SENER Capacity building according to a nuclear program Sufficient experienced a qualified human resources. Strengthen existing national industry and technological capabilities in the nuclear field ININ, CNSNS, UNIVERSITIES DIFFERENT ENTITIES

18 Strategic Theme 16. Define the scope of the nuclear program to expand nuclear capacity in Mexico

19 Electricity Generation Planning and Alternative Scenarios NUCLEAR 3.30% WIND 0.50% Geotermoeléctrica 2,20% COAL 13.00% 2011 Real 261,895 GWh THERMO conventional 20.60% Hidroeléctrica 12,00% CC 45.60% Carboeléctrica 6,30% Hidroeléctrica 8,90% Combustión interna 0,20% Geotermoeléctrica 1,80% Nucleoeléctrica 2,50% THERMO conventional 1.50% WIND 2.70% Coque 0,50% NGL 2,30% TCL Solar 3,30% 0,01% CC 69.79% 2027 Planeación 458,784 GWh Combustión interna 0,40% Geotermoeléctrica 1,80% NUCLEAR 7.80% Turbogas 2,40% THERMO conventional 1.50% WIND 13.50% Coque 0,50% Turbogas 0,20% Solar 0,01% COAL 5.90% Hidroeléctrica 8,90% CC 59.79% 2027 Alternative 458,784 GWh Combustión interna 0,20% Turbogas 0,10%

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23 PRODESEN ; Programa de instalación de centrales eléctricas

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29 Remarks Increasing nuclear energy share in the power generation portfolio could be necessary to meet the goals of the energy policy in Mexico An early decision on increasing nuclear capacity will mean: More likely to succeed reaching the 35% participation of clean technologies. Let this be a real alternative in the supply of electricity in Mexico. The construction of nuclear power plants may be simultaneous, in accordance with best international practices (less time, lower costs through economies of scale). Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant has area for two new units, and would be possible to immediately start the process of site licensing.

30 LAS-ANS 2015 Symposium, July, 2015, Santiago de Chile. Nuclear Energy in the Near Future in Mexico Thank you

31 Central Nucleoeléctrica de Laguna Verde