A b u D h a b i 3rd 5th June 2015

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1 A b u D h a b i 3rd 5th June 2015 Effect of the energy and climate policies in the future Mexican electricity system Helena Cabal Cuesta Yolanda Lechón Pérez Antonio Rodríguez Martínez David Castrejón Botello Marco Polo Flores López

2 Content Introduction Methodology Long term scenarios Results Conclusions

3 Introduction In 2012, Mexico with around 117 million inhabitants and a GDP of 1,028 billon 2005 USD$, produced 1.6% of the global primary energy, the main source being hydrocarbons Total Primary Energy Supply (Mtoe) Total CO 2 emissions amounted to Mt

4 Introduction Mexico in the World (IEA Key World Statistics 2014): 10 th in crude oil exports, but 4 th in oil products imports Fossil fuels (BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2013): Natural gas 2012 (ktoe) Production 52,600 Consumption 75,300 Imports (79% from USA) 20,776 Crude oil 2012 (ktoe/day) Production 408 Consumption 290 Exports 191 Coal 2012 (ktoe) Production 6,600 Consumption 8,800 Imports 2,200 Resources (ktoe) Gas Crude oil Coal Proved 371,000 1,596, Renewable (SENER): Resources (PJ) Geothermal Small Hydro Wind Solar Biomass Possible , Probable Proved

5 Introduction Evolution of the public electricity system in Mexico in the period The Mexican electricity system is moving from oil to natural gas Source: SENER In 2012, 48% of the electricity came from gas, 34% from other fossil resources, 15% from renewable resources, and 3% from nuclear

6 Introduction Energy and Climate Change national targets Law for the Renewable Energies Exploit and Energy Transition Financing (2012) General Law of Climate Change (2012) National Strategy of Climate Change (2013) (Estrategia Nacional de Cambio Climático- ENCC) Maximum generation with fossil fuels 65% by % by % by 2050 Minimum generation with clean energies (Renewable + Nuclear + CCS) 35% by 2024 Creation of a system to support renewables I. Climate objectives GHG emissions reduction compared to 2000 levels -30% by % by 2050 II. Electricity objectives Share of clean technologies in electricity generation 35% by % by % by 2054

7 Methodology EFDA TIMES Model (ETM) Built in the framework of EUROfusion (former European Fusion Development Agreement), within the Socio-Economic Studies project, SES (former Socio Economic Research of Fusion). First version was produced in 2004, last version in 2012 ETM uses the TIMES model generator developed by IEA-ETSAP (IEA Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme Implementing Agreement) The EFDA Times Model is a Multi-regional, global, and long-term energy model of economic equilibrium, covering the entire energy system from mining to final consumption Optimization model which aims at providing the optimum energy system composition in terms of social wealth and sustainability at the minimum cost Bottom-up, technology rich model with thousand of technologies well defined by technical, economic and environmental data

8 Methodology Main characteristics 17 world regions: Africa, Australia-New Zealand, Brazil, Central Asia and Caucasus, Canada, China, Europe, India, Japan, Middle East, Mexico, Other Developing Asia, Other Eastern Europe, Other Latin America, Russia, South Korea, and United States Time horizon: 2100 Six time slices: three seasons (winter, summer and intermediate), and day/night Demand sectors: residential, commercial, agriculture, industry and transportation Supply sectors: electricity and heat production, and upstream Demand scenarios: energy demand driver projections from the general equilibrium models GEM-E3 and Gtap Trade: inter-regional exchange process (trade of commodities) among the different regions Renewables suitable areas, potentials and AFs estimated using GIS Some new technologies recently introduced such as CSP with storage or advanced nuclear with fuel reprocessing

9 Long term scenarios Scenario Assumptions Business as Usual (BaU) National Strategy of Climate Change (ENCC) No energy or climate policies I. Climate objectives 442,859 kt CO 2 total by 2020 (-30% compared to 2000 levels) 210,880 kt CO 2 total by 2050 (-50% compared to 2000 levels) II. Electricity objectives 35% share clean energies in electricity generation by % share clean energies in electricity generation by % share clean energies in electricity generation by 2054

10 Results Mexican public electricity system evolution under the BaU and ENCC scenarios +33% costs Share

11 Results Comparison with other studies: IRENA and SENER Renewable Energy Prospects: Mexico. Executive Summary. IRENA. January 2015

12 Results Comparison with other studies: DDPP (Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project) Pathways to deep decarbonization report. Mexico chapter. SDSN and IDDRI (2014)

13 Conclusions The Mexican government has recently launched an ambitious energy reform to modernize the energy system. The main aim of this reform is to make the most of the national resources in a rational and sustainable way under the principles of energy security, economic efficiency and social benefit Two scenarios have been built to analyse the evolution of the public Mexican electricity system under different assumptions on policies using a global energy optimization model The results of the analysis show that meeting the CO 2 emission limits is achievable in terms of technologies and resources availability but at a high cost. However, the clean energy targets could be met even in a BaU scenario When CO 2 targets are set, solar thermal technologies seem to be a good option for the Mexican electricity system as well as gas with CCS technologies

14 Socioeconomic analysis Socioeconomic and environmental effects of the Mexican climate policies Cristina de la Rúa, Yolanda Lechón, Helena Cabal, Irene Rodríguez Serrano

15 Abu Dhabi 3rd 5th June 2015 THANK YOU Effect of the energy and climate policies in the future Mexican electricity system Helena Cabal Cuesta Yolanda Lechón Pérez Antonio Rodríguez Martínez David Castrejón Botello Marco Polo Flores López