A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MODELLING WATER ENERGY FOOD NEXUS

Transcription

1 A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MODELLING WATER ENERGY FOOD NEXUS Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering The University of Western Ontario London, Ontario, Canada

2 2 Conclusions WEF nexus New challenges High level of integration High level of complexity Common concerns Systems approach Modelling of the whole system System dynamics simulation (and optimization) Modelling of various scales Global Regional. ANEMI model example

3 3 Outline Challenges of the new/old context Integration Systems approach Example ANEMI model Lessons learned Conclusions

4 WEF Context 4 Definitions Nexus? A center point of something! A center of various connections! Water, energy and food pillars of global security, prosperity and equity Perspectives Water perspective food and energy systems are users of resources Food perspective water and energy are inputs Energy perspective water is the input and food is the output Vast individual areas Policy and regulations often create sub optimal solutions

5 WEF Context 5 Challenges Water Energy Food common concerns Access to services Environmental impacts Price volatility Growing population Poverty Health Climate change Mitigation energy Adaptation land and water Management Enormous opportunities for higher efficiency Study of the whole complex system Understanding interactions it is all about feedbacks Scale 1.4 billion people without access to electricity 3 billion with out access to modern fuels or technologies for cooking and heating 900 million people without access to safe drinking water 2.6 billion do not have sanitation 900 million people are chronically hungry 2 billion people lack food security

6 7 Systems approach Consideration of all three areas together Systems view Complexity Whole system approach Difficult to translate into government policy making processes System structure Feedbacks System behavior

7 8 Example ANEMI NSERC Discovery Grant ( ) ANEMI ver 1 NSERC Strategic Grant ( ) ANEMI ver 2 Project objectives i. To develop system dynamics based model of society biosphere climate ii. iii. system To provide support for communication between the science and policy communities. To examine the effects of climate change on socio economic and environmental sustainability through the model outputs. Interdisciplinary team Systems modelling engineering Climate policy geography and political science Economics economics Partners Environment Canada Natural Resources Canada Department of Finance Department of Fisheries and Oceans Department of Agriculture

8 9 Example ANEMI Selection of the methodological approach First workshop ANEMI model development Structure Sectors Preliminary results Identification of key issues Communication with the project collaborators Selection of simulation scenarios Second workshop ANEMI model expansion Economy energy integration Model regionalization Model use Scenario analyses Model limitations Third workshop Model transfer Future work

9 10 Example ANEMI - Pollution Index Clearing and Burning Land Use Population Land Use Emissions Consumption and Labour Fertility Water Consumption Arable Land Per capita food - Food Production Energy-Economy Water use efficiency Water Stress Agricultural allocation Surface Flow Emission Index GDP per capita Carbon Water use Intensity Wastewater Reuse Temperature Industrial emission Temperature Water Demand Wastewater Water Quality Treatment Wastewater Treatment and Reuse Temperature Water Stress Atmospheric CO 2 Climate 1. Carbon cycle 2. Climate 3. Water Use 4. Water Quality 5. Surface Flow 6. Population 7. Land Use 8. Food Production 9. Energy Economy

10 11 Example ANEMI Stock and flow diagrams

11 12 Example ANEMI Equations Available water resources Two stocks (oceans and land surface) Flows (evaporation, evapotranspiration, advection, precipitation, snow and ice melt, percolation, ocean runoff) A M ( E Adv P ) = dt M ( Adv ET P P ) dt AL = R S LS = PR ET SF GP ( ) dt ( SF GD P M E ) O = dt ( GP GD) ( P M ) GS = dt IS = dt S O O M E M Adv P = R O = EM 0 = P T feedback ( 1 δ /100) Adv 0 adv O0 L A M S A M 0 P = P P C wl GP = GP LS 0 LS 0 C gw GD = GD GS 0 GW GS 0

12 13 Example ANEMI Simulation & optimization

13 14 Example ANEMI global and regional Global model Regional model Canada and rest of the world (ROW)

14 15 Example ANEMI policy scenarios Policy communication process Set of interviews Identification of policy questions by the research team Identification of scenarios Initial set of scenarios Carbon pricing Economic growth rate Water pricing North American water stress Irrigation Energy subsidies and pricing Land use change Final choice Carbon tax Increased water use Food production increase

15 16 Example ANEMI Carbon tax scenario (global)

16 17 Example ANEMI Increased water use scenario (global)

17 18 Example ANEMI Increased food production scenario (global)

18 19 Example ANEMI conclusions WEF nexus New challenges High level of integration High level of complexity Common concerns Systems approach Modelling of the whole system System dynamics simulation (and optimization) Modelling of various scales Global Regional. ANEMI model example

19 20 Resources Simonovic, S.P., and E.G.R. Davies (2006). Are we modeling impacts of climate change properly?, invited commentary, Hydrological Processes Journal, 20, pp Davies, E.G.R. and S. P. Simonovic (2009). Energy Sector for the Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social Economic Climatic Model. Water Resources Research Report no. 063, Facility for Intelligent Decision Support, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, Ontario, Canada, 191 pages. ISBN: (print) ; (online) Davies, E.G.R, and S.P. Simonovic, (2010). ANEMI: A New Model for Integrated Assessment of Global Change, the Interdisciplinary Environmental Review special issue on Climate Change, 11(2/3): M. Khaled Akhtar,M.K., S. P. Simonovic, J. Wibe, J. MacGee and J. Davies (2011). An Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social Energy Economy Climate System: Model Description. Water Resources Research Report no. 075, Facility for Intelligent Decision Support, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, Ontario, Canada, 211 pagesisbn: (print) ; (online) Davise, E.G.R. and S.P. Simonovic (2011). (2011) Water Resources and Integrated Assessment Modeling the ANEMI Model, Advances in Water Resources (available online: 18 February 2011), 34: > research > fids