2012 FES Gas Strategy

Transcription

1 12 FES Gas Strategy Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line.

2 Content Scenarios & axioms 12 Gas demand scenarios 12 Gas supply scenarios Gas / electricity interactions Network issues Conclusions 2

3 12 Scenarios & Axioms Slow Progression Gone Green Accelerated Growth Targets Pressure for EU targets to be abandoned, missed EU targets hit by, on target for carbon targets EU targets met pre- Economy / Prices Continued low growth, increased focus on affordability. Fossil fuel prices gradually fall from current high levels Central GDP assumptions ~2%pa Current trend in fossil fuel prices continue Sustained high economic growth Fossil fuel prices rise faster than current trends Power Generation Slower deployment of offshore wind, new nuclear delayed to mid- s, CCS pilot in deployed in gas Offshore wind grow to meet targets, new nuclear from s, CCS pilot from deployed for both coal and gas Costs of offshore wind falls, rapid build up of offshore wind, increased levels of tidal generation. CCS gas/coal post Consumers / Heating Resistant to cost of targets, minimal electrification of heating (mostly off-grid) Acceptance of targets, internal temperatures continue to fall, incentives drive electrification of domestic heating Enthusiasm for meeting targets, significant growth in electrification of heating 3

4 12 Domestic and I&C demand Domestic Behavioural change Energy efficiency New house build Change of heating fuel Industrial & Commercial Economy Energy efficiency 4

5 12 Power generation and exports Power generation Coal / gas price Changes to generating mix CCGT build Wind development New nuclear CCS Exports Ireland as SP, GG & AG IUK -

6 12 Supplies 8 6 UKCS West of Shetland Development of reserves Includes onshore Continent (IUK & BBL) UK supply availability / price Norway Development of reserves Norwegian North Sea Barents Sea 6 LNG Global availability fills the gap 6

7 Gas / electricity interaction (current) 7 6 Actual daily power profiles for days of highest electricity demand GW 9/ Gas and coal competing for baseload Most CCGTs needed for peak ½hr Within day gas flow 64-1mcm/d Flex from NTS linepack 9/ 11/12 1/2 hour settlement period 11/12 Coal at baseload, gas marginal Most CCGTs still needed for peak ½hr Within day gas flow 26-97mcm/d Flex from NTS linepack Within day variation in wind from 2.6 to 1.3GW (78%-38%) Nuclear Coal Gas Wind PS & Hydro Interconnectors Other 7

8 Gas / electricity interaction () 7 6 Assumed daily power profiles for days of highest electricity demand GW steady wind Gas assumed as marginal plant 22GW Wind at % Most CCGTs needed for peak ½hr Within day gas flow 28-98mcm/d Flex from NTS linepack Base Wind 1/2 hour settlement period variable wind Gas assumed as marginal plant 22GW wind, within day range 17.3 to 8.GW (78%-38%) Most CCGTs needed for peak ½hr Within day gas flow -81mcm/d Flex from NTS linepack Some coal plant also constrained Nuclear Coal Gas Wind PS & Hydro Interconnectors Other 8

9 Other Network Issues Factors intensify network operations and dynamics Historic north to south flows replaced with variable supply patterns Changeable exit profiles power stations, LDZ offtakes & storage injection Changeable entry profiles flexible supplies LNG, IUK, Norway & storage Increased supply concentration hence increased impact of supply losses Future considerations Impact of variable wind Increased reliance on imports supply variations & concentration Increased electricity interconnection gas plant provides flexibility New connections imports (Interconnectors & LNG), storage, power stations Conclusions There is an enduring role for gas Network challenges continue to increase 9