The social and economic impact of large-scale wind and solar energy projects in Yucatán

Transcription

1 The social and economic impact of large-scale wind and solar energy projects in Yucatán January 8, 2017 M.Sc. Dipl. oec. Nadja Thürbeck

2 Outline 1. Project Proposal outline 2. Background/ Problem statement 3. Methodology 2

3 Outline - Project proposal What? Empirical research study Where? Rural communities that will be affected by the construction of the RE-projects in Yucatán Why? To identify and analyze the social, economic (and environmental) impact in the short-, medium-, and long-term To submit recommendations for public policies and private enterprises in the renewable energy sector Promote regional, rural development 3

4 Background/ Problem statement Latest development in the Mexican energy sector: Commitment of the Mexican government to generate 35% of power by clean energy sources by the year 2024 In 2015, 20.34% (62, GWh) genereated by clean energy (15.36% renewable sources) first two public tenders/auctions for long-term electricity generation in 2016 numerous big-scale renewable energy projects will be constructed in the country Yucatán standing out Impacto socioeconómico de parques eólicos - Perspectivas para Yucatán - 4

5 State level: 9 projects to be built in Yucatan as result of the 1 st long-term power generation auctions Empresa Energía Renovable de la Península, S.A.P.I. de C.V. Aldesa Energias Renovables, S.L.U. Central Eólica Capacidad (MW) Inversión (mdp) Energía Mwh/año) Progreso/San Ignacio ,502 Parque Eólico Chacabal (Motul) ,199 Aldesa Energias Renovables, S.L.U. Parque Eólico Chacabal II ,689 Consorcio Energía Limpia Parque Eólico Tizimín ,900 Solar Fotovoltaica Vega Solar 1, S.A.P.I. de C.V. Ticul ,303 Vega Solar 1, S.A.P.I. de C.V. Ticul I ,832 Jinkosolar Investment Pte. Cuncunul ,475 Jinkosolar Investment Pte. San Ignacio (Progreso) ,748 Photoemeris Sustentable S.A. de C.V. Fuente: Centro Nacional de Control de Energía (CENACE), 2016, Kambul (Motul) ,975 Total 1,344 1,915 1,818,623 5

6 Future wind and solar parks in Yucatan * Only some projects are shown; total number ND 6

7 Research questions What are the possible economic, social and environmental impacts of these large-scale projects to be expected in Yucatan? Who will be the winners and losers? What are direct and indirect impacts in the short, medium and long-term? (secondary impacts/multipliers) Impacto socioeconómico de parques eólicos - Perspectivas para Yucatán - 7

8 Literature review/ data sources International level National level Example Isthmus of Tehuantepec/Oaxaca Outlook for Yucatan Local press Environmental impacto studies (Manifestación de impacto ambiental (MIA) Social impact studies (Evaluación de impacto social (EVIS)) Impacto socioeconómico de parques eólicos - Perspectivas para Yucatán - 8

9 Wind parks possible/supposed impacts GDP growth Land rent Local tax revenues Creation of domestic industry Diversification of energy supply/ increased coverage (Socio-)economic Local development Job creation Improved welfare/ poverty reduction Social conflicts Inequality Migration Environmental and others Flora and Fauna Water pollution Soil erosion Noise and visual disturbance Telecommunication interference 9

10 Conclusions - International experiences not necessarily apply at local context - In Yucatán possible similar impacts as in Oaxaca due to similarities of socioeconomic profile of rural communities: Limited impact on employment (only temporary, low-paid, during construction) and income from land rents for a reduced number of landowners); Low impact on local economic development, due to the missing industry and suppliers at the local level; Insufficient investment in low-impact social projects by private enterprises Potential for social conflicts 10

11 Conclusions But: Problem: Lack of public, official information and transparency Lack of empirical studies to analyze the impact at the local level Environmental impact studies include some components, but insufficient New requirement requested by government Social impact study (EVIS) still not available could be useful tool, but depends on implementation and monitoring mechanisms of energy ministry Statistical data not available or not updated at local level Thus: Future research task: Necessary to collect data/ conduct household surveys at local level Monitoring of EVIS implementation 11

12 Project proposal What: Empirical research study Where: some of the rural communities that will be affected by the construction of the RE-projects in Yucatán Aim: identify and analyze the social, economic (and environmental) impact in the short-, medium-, and long-term in order to submit recommendations for public policies and private enterprises Methodology: Recompilation of quantitative and qualitative data by means of: Household surveys (to be repeated 1 st, 3 rd,5th year) Focus group discussions Impact measurement by applying general equilibrium models, based on Social Accounting Matrix to be constructed 12

13 Thank you! Questions? Contact: Nadja Thürbeck Cel