The Future of Biodiversity

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1 The Future of Biodiversity International Diversity Day Palacio dos Bandeirantes Sao Paulo, Brazil May 22, 2010 Thomas E. Lovejoy Biodiversity Chair, The Heinz Center Professor, George Mason University Washington, D.C. THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT

2 Exploring Life on Earth

predicted Psychotria observed Modelling the numbers of species

Rubiaceae remain unknown a number similar to the average (15%)

20% of all known plants are threatened with extinction and the

3 predicted Psychotria observed Modelling the numbers of species described per year, per taxonomist, predicts that 18% more Rubiaceae remain unknown a number similar to the average (15%) for other plant families. 20% of all known plants are threatened with extinction and the remaining 15% will amost surely be so, bringing the true percentage to ~30% From Joppa, Robers & Pimm (under review)

4 Knowledge Services

7 The information behind GBO-3: 110 National Reports Biodiversity Indicators Partnership Biodiversity Futures Study 500 scientific papers Open review process

8 GBO-3 is an output of the processes under the Convention. Parties to the Convention, other Governments, and observer organizations have shaped the Outlook GBO-3 has been prepared by the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, in close collaboration UNEP-WCMC and Diversitas. The production of GBO-3 was enabled by financial contributions from Canada, the European Union, Germany, Japan, Spain and the United Kingdom, as well as UNEP.

9 Structure Biodiversity in 2010 Biodiversity Futures for the 21 st Century Towards a Strategy for Reducing Biodiversity Loss

10 2010 Biodiversity Target to achieve by 2010 a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss at the global, regional and national level as a contribution to poverty alleviation and to the benefit of all life on Earth

11 The 2010 Biodiversity Target has not been met No sub-target completely achieved Most indicators negative No government claims success Direct pressures constant or increasing

12 The global Living Planet Index (LPI), has declined by more than 30% since 1970, The Tropical LPI has declined by almost 60%. The Temperate LPI showed an increase of 15%, reflecting the recovery of some species populations in temperate regions Source: WWF/ZSL Source: WWF/ZSL

13 The Red List Index (RLI) for all these species groups is decreasing. Coral species are moving most rapidly towards greater extinction risk Amphibians are, on average, the group most threatened. Source: IUCN

14 Laboratoire d Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution GBO3 - Biodiversity Scenarios Synthesis Species Extinction Rates Observed for past or committed for future GBO3 Terrestrial Scenarios Projected Terrestrial Species Species extinctionextinctions E/MSY Distant past Recent past Plants Plants & vertebrates Plants Plants & animals Mammals, birds & amphibians Birds 10 1 Mammals 0,1 Background extinction rate Red list Jetz van Vuuren Malcom Thomas Land use & Climate Change Land use & Climate Change Climate Change Climate Change

15 Livestock breeds at risk Source: FAO

16 Laboratoire d Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution GBO3 - Biodiversity Scenarios Synthesis GBO3 Marine Scenarios Fishing down the food web High Marine trophic index Low

Trends in habitats are varied but show declines over all: Wetlands, salt marshes, coral reefs, seagrass beds and sea ice continue to decline Extensive

17 Trends in habitats are varied but show declines over all: Wetlands, salt marshes, coral reefs, seagrass beds and sea ice continue to decline Extensive fragmentation of forests and rivers Mangrove decline slowing (except in Asia) The condition of many terrestrial habitats is deteriorating (degrading) Source: NSIDC

18 Laboratoire d Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution GBO3 - Biodiversity Scenarios Synthesis Marine trophic index Pacific ocean GBO3 Marine Scenarios Scenarios for Marine Fisheries Reduced trawling Ecosystem rebuilding Profit & subsidies = Business as usual

20 Dr. Svante August Arrhenius

21 Analysis of a Greenland ice core oxygen isotope proxy Source: Wallace Broecker

22 Earlier flowering date

23 Spring comes about 2 weeks earlier Across the USA, tree swallows are nesting 9 days earlier than 40 years ago Laying date is highly correlated with May temperature Source: Camille Parmesan

24 Laboratoire d Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution GBO3 - Biodiversity Scenarios Synthesis Shifts in the distribution of species and biomes

25 Edith s Checkerspot Range shift northward and upward during the 20th century Most extinctions in south and low elevations

26 Biodiversity changes: possible effects of climate change In Europe, mean average temperature has increased by 0.8 C during the 20th century. 63% of the 35 studied butterfly species displayed a shift in their distribution area toward the North of 35 to 200 km. Parmesan et al. 1999, 2006 Argynnis paphia Dark Orange = historical distribution Light Orange = current distribution Source : BBC World News

27 WWF-Canon / Michèle Dépraz

28 Increasing number of dry days Source: J.A. Pounds et al 2005

Laboratoire d Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution GBO3 - Biodiversity Scenarios Synthesis The Arctic Biome Shift High global warming Large biome shifts are very likely to occur Green = shrub

29 Laboratoire d Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution GBO3 - Biodiversity Scenarios Synthesis The Arctic Biome Shift High global warming Large biome shifts are very likely to occur Green = shrub or tree cover gain Aggressive climate mitigation substantially reduces species and biome range shifts Low global warming Figure: LPJ global vegetation model projections for 2100 from IPCC (2007)

30 Sugar Maple range projections by 5 GCMs with 2 x CO 2 Source: A.M. Prasad and Iverson, L.R:

Core Habitat Remaining (%) Number of Predicted Extinctions Spatial Pattern of Species Richness Dark red = high species richness 70 60 50 40 Species Extinctions S-curve fit: adj. r 2 = 0.997 p = 0.

31 Core Habitat Remaining (%) Number of Predicted Extinctions Spatial Pattern of Species Richness Dark red = high species richness Species Extinctions S-curve fit: adj. r 2 = p = Temperature Increase Mean Range Size Williams et al Proc Roy Soc Lond. B: 270: N = 65 Current Temperature Scenario Slide courtesy of Stephen Williams

32 Ecosystems disassemble and species reassemble into new ecosystems Source: G.M. Hewitt and Nichols, R.A. 2005

33 Protected areas increasing Source: UNEP-WCMC Source: UNEP-WCMC

34 but large areas still under-represented Source: UNEP-WCMC

35 Amazon loss slowing in Brazil Source: INPE

36 State Pressure Response Source: Butchart etal 2010

37 Trends shown by agreed indicators of progress towards the 2010 biodiversity target:

38 Key Findings: Projections show continuing and accelerating extinctions, habitat loss, changes in distribution and abundance of biodiversity High risk of dramatic biodiversity loss and degradation of services from tipping points Loss preventable and even reversible with strong, urgent action

39 What is a tipping point? Threshold Time lag Self-perpetuating Long lasting/hard to reverse

40 Courtesy of NOAA/NCAR

Self-perpetuating Alternative Path Keep deforestation below 20%-30% of original forest area Minimize use of

41 Tipping Point Amazon dieback Current Path Widespread shift from forest to savanna resulting from the Interaction of deforestation, climate change and fires Becomes more likely at 20%-30% deforestation Self-perpetuating Alternative Path Keep deforestation below 20%-30% of original forest area Minimize use of fire for clearing Keep global climate warming below 2-3 degrees Regional rainfall and global climate impacts, massive biodiversity loss

Loss of nutrition from fisheries, toxic blooms make water unfit for drinking or recreation Reduce nutrient inputs from sewage,

42 Tipping Points Freshwater eutrophication Current Path Alternative Path The buildup of nutrients from fertilizers and sewage shifts freshwater bodies into a eutrophic state causing: Low oxygen levels and widespread kills of plants, fish, invertebrates Loss of nutrition from fisheries, toxic blooms make water unfit for drinking or recreation Reduce nutrient inputs from sewage, detergents and agriculture Reforestation of watersheds Restoration of wetlands Economic incentives to close nutrient cycle on farms

hundreds of millions through loss of fisheries and tourism Alternative Path Reduce local stressors including: Destructive

43 Tipping Points Coral reef collapse Current Path Bleaching severe with temperature rise greater than ca. 2 o C Ocean acidification prevents corals forming skeletons Reefs become degraded and algaedominated Livelihood threat to hundreds of millions through loss of fisheries and tourism Alternative Path Reduce local stressors including: Destructive fishing practices Coastal pollution Over-exploitation of herbivores such as sea urchins and fish Strict climate mitigation to keep CO 2 levels below 450 ppm and 2 o C.

44 Laboratoire d Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution GBO3 - Biodiversity Scenarios Synthesis Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 A map of key biodiversity tipping points

Reefs Climate warming is already having widespread

45 Laboratoire d Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution GBO3 - Biodiversity Scenarios Synthesis Global Warming and Coral Reefs Climate warming is already having widespread negative impacts on coral reefs After bleaching Before bleaching

Laboratoire d Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution GBO3 - Biodiversity Scenarios Synthesis Global Warming and Coral Reefs Climate warming is already having widespread negative impacts on coral reefs

46 Laboratoire d Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution GBO3 - Biodiversity Scenarios Synthesis Global Warming and Coral Reefs Climate warming is already having widespread negative impacts on coral reefs IPCC WGII 2007 Maximum monthly mean sea surface temperature for 1998, 2002 and 2005, and locations of reported coral bleaching (data sources: NOAA Coral Reef Watch ( and Reefbase (

48 At today s level of 387ppm CO 2, reefs are seriously declining and time-lagged effects will result in their continued demise with parallel impacts on other marine and coastal ecosystems. Proposals to limit CO 2 levels to 450ppm will not prevent the catastrophic loss of coral reefs from the combined effects of climate change and ocean acidification. To ensure the long-term viability of coral reefs atmospheric carbon dioxide level must be reduced significantly below 350ppm. Royal Society Meeting, July 6 th 2009

49 Deteriorating chemical condition for coral reefs In the pre-industrial ocean, 99.8% of coral reefs were near water with Ω aragonite > 3.25 Under a 550 ppm atmosphere, < 2% of coral reefs will be near water with Ω aragonite > Corrosive to coral reefs Ω aragonite Optimal for coral reefs

50 Why is a CO 2 target of 450ppm too high? (1) Arctic sea-ice (2) Greenland ice-sheet stability (3) Antarctic ice-sheet stability (4) Major ecosystem disruption

51 What is a safe level? James Hansen, et al., ppm

52 Broadening action on biodiversity

53 There is a greater range of options than previously recognized Source: Leadley and Pereira etal 2010

54 Scenarios for land use Business as usual Carbon tax including land use Carbon tax on fossil fuels and industry only Source: Wise etal 2009

55 Address climate change and biodiversity loss in close co-ordination, and with equal priority, if the most severe impacts of each are to be avoided.

Key strategy elements: Greater efficiency in use of land, energy and fresh water to meet growing demand Use of market incentives and avoidance of perverse subsidies Strategic planning Restoration of

56 Key strategy elements: Greater efficiency in use of land, energy and fresh water to meet growing demand Use of market incentives and avoidance of perverse subsidies Strategic planning Restoration of ecosystems Equitable sharing of benefits from use of and access to genetic resources and associated traditional knowledge Support and facilitate local action Communication, education and awareness-raising

57 Adaptation: Revise conservation strategies Increase natural connectivity to facilitate species movement Minimize climate change impacts by reducing other stresses, e.g., siltation on coral reefs

58 Protected Areas and future biogeography climate change shifts location of suitable habitat marine reserves support population growth in neighboring areas Source: Hannah et al. 2002; PISCO 2002

59 Limit Greenhouse Gas Concentrations 20% of Annual Emissions come from deforestation

60 Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions ( ) 1.5 Pg C y Pg y Atmosphere -1 46% 7.5 Pg C y Pg y -1 Land 29% 2.3 Pg y -1 Oceans 26% Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated)

61 Long atmospheric residence times for greenhouse gases

62 The Role of Life Processes Origin of land plants Expansion of angiosperms Present-day CO 2

63 Over the past three centuries, ecosystems have lost billion tons of carbon

64 Planetary Engineering Using Ecosystems CO2 PPM 280 Time

65 The Role of Forests

66 Restoring Grazing Land Photo courtesy USDA NRCS

67 Modify Agriculture to Build up Soil Carbon Photos: United States Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service.

TEEB: The Economics of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services TEEB Final Reports Nagoya, Oct 2010 D0 Science & Economics Foundations, Policy Costs, & Costs

68 TEEB: The Economics of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services TEEB Final Reports Nagoya, Oct 2010 D0 Science & Economics Foundations, Policy Costs, & Costs of Inaction D1 D2 Policy Evaluation for Policy-Makers Decision Support for Administrators D3 D4 Business Risks & Opportunities Citizen & Consumer Ownership

69 TEEB D0, Chapter 5 Economic valuation of ecosystem services and biodiversity can make explicit to society in general and policy making in particular, that biodiversity and ecosystem services are scarce and that their depreciation or degradation has associated costs to society. If these costs are not imputed, then policy would be misguided and society would be worse off due to misallocation of resources.

70 US$ /ha/yr Based only on private gain, the trade-off choice favours conversion.. $9632ha $12,392ha Shrimp Farm Mangroves 5000 $584ha $1220ha $584ha After Adding Public Benefits From mangroves 0 private profits private profits less subsidies private profits Net of public costs of restoration needed after 5 years If public wealth is included, the trade-off choice changes completely.. -ve $11,172ha Source: Barbier et al, 2007

71 Exceptional Returns from Ecosystem Restoration

The action taken over the next decade or two will determine whether the relatively stable environmental conditions on which human civilization has depended for the past 10,000 years will continue

72 The action taken over the next decade or two will determine whether the relatively stable environmental conditions on which human civilization has depended for the past 10,000 years will continue beyond this century. If we fail to use this opportunity, many ecosystems on the planet will move into new, unprecedented states in which the capacity to provide for the needs of present and future generations is highly uncertain.

73 Re-Greening the Emerald Planet

74 For further information on Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 and related prodcuts please see:

PRESS RELEASE (Embargo until 10:30am GMT 10 May 2010) New vision required to stave off dramatic biodiversity loss, says UN report

For information media not an official record PRESS RELEASE (Embargo until 10:30am GMT 10 May 2010) New vision required to stave off dramatic biodiversity loss, says UN report Montreal, Canada. 10 May 2010.