OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2011

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1 World Energy Outlook 211

2 The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy and limited the means of intervention Post-Fukushima, nuclear is facing uncertainty MENA turmoil raised questions about region s investment plans Some key trends are pointing in worrying directions: CO 2 emissions rebounded to a record high energy efficiency of global economy worsened for 2 nd straight year spending on oil imports is near record highs

3 Emerging economies continue to drive global energy demand Mtoe Growth in primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario China India Other developing Asia Russia Middle East Rest of world OECD Global energy demand increases by one-third from 21 to 235, with China & India accounting for 5% of the growth

4 Coal won the energy race in the first decade of the 21st century Mtoe 1 6 Growth in global energy demand, Nuclear Renewables 1 8 Oil Natural gas Total non-coal Coal Coal accounted for nearly half of the increase in global energy use over the past decade, with the bulk of the growth coming from the power sector in emerging economies

5 Natural gas & renewables become increasingly important Mtoe World primary energy demand 5 4 Additional to Oil Coal Gas Renewables Nuclear Renewables & natural gas collectively meet almost two-thirds of incremental energy demand in

6 Meeting the 2⁰C goal requires a rapid shift away from fossil fuels Mtoe World primary energy demand by fuel & scenario : New Policies Scenario 235: 45 Scenario 2 1 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass & waste Other renewables Consumption of coal unsurprisingly falls most in favour of more nuclear & renewables, but the scope of cutting oil use is limited by a lack of commercially viable substitutes

7 Less nuclear means more of everything else TWh Power generation by fuel in the New Policies Scenario and Low Nuclear Case : New Policies Scenario 235: Low Nuclear Case 4 2 Nuclear Coal Gas Renewables The biggest chunk of the lost nuclear generation is replaced by power generation from coal, leading to a 6% increase in CO 2 emissions in the power sector

8 Golden prospects for natural gas Largest natural gas producers in 235 Russia United States China Iran Qatar Canada Algeria Australia India Norway Conventional Unconventional Unconventional natural gas supplies 4% of the 1.7 tcm increase in global supply, but best practices are essential to successfully address environmental challenges bcm

9 Natural gas demand growth comes from China, Middle East, India bcm Natural gas demand by selected region in the New Policies Scenario, 29 and Additional to North America European Union Middle East Russia China India Japan Gas demand grows fastest in the non-oecd regions, led by China, which accounts for more than a quarter of the worldwide increase in demand between 29 & 235

10 Power will be the main driver of demand in most regions Incremental primary natural gas demand by region and sector in the New Policies Scenario, China Middle East E. Europe/Eurasia Other Asia OECD Americas OECD Europe India Latin America Africa OECD Asia Oceania Power generation Other energy sector Industry Buildings Other bcm Power generation accounts for over 41% of the increase in global gas demand between 29 & 235, as gas is increasingly favoured over coal &, in some cases, nuclear

11 Power investment focuses on low-carbon technologies Share of new power generation and investment, % 35% 3% Generation Investment 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar PV Renewables are often capital-intensive, representing 6% of investment for 3% of additional generation, but bring environmental benefits & have minimal fuel costs

12 The overall value of subsidies to renewables is set to rise Billion dollars (21) 25 2 Biofuels Electricity Renewable subsidies of $66 billion in 21 (compared with $49 billion for fossil fuels), need to climb to $25 billion in 235 as rising deployment outweighs improved competitiveness

13 TWh EU moving towards cleaner forms of electricity generation Share of electricity generation Electricity generation from low-carbon sources in the European Union in the New Policies Scenario % 8% 6% 29 Additional to % 2 2% Nuclear Hydro Wind Biomass Solar PV Other Wind spearheads the low-carbon contribution to the EU electricity sector: the share of generation from low-carbon technologies rises to two-thirds in 235 CCS Low carbon %

14 Inter-regional gas trade booms Net gas trade by major region in the New Policies Scenario E.Europe/Eurasia Africa Middle East OECD Oceania Latin America OECD Americas India OECD Asia China OECD Europe Importers Exporters bcm Gas trade doubles from 59 bcm in 29 to almost 1 2 bcm in 235, with China s imports increasing the most

15 Russian gas output and exports are poised for further growth bcm Russia s natural gas balance in the New Policies Scenario Production Consumption Net exports Output increases from 637 bcm in 21 to 86 bcm in 235, although the next generation of Russian gas production is higher-cost, more difficult technically and often even more remote

16 billion barrels Not far to look for the next generation of Russian oil and gas fields trillion cubic metres Conventional oil and gas resources in various Russian regions, end Caspian Volga Urals Timan Barents Western Eastern Pechora Sea Siberia Siberia Other offshore Arctic Sakhalin Others The bulk of Russia s resources are in the core producing region of Western Siberia, but East Siberia, the Caspian, the Barents and other Arctic seas are also very promising Oil (left axis) Remaining recoverable resources Cumulative production Gas (right axis) Remaining recoverable resources Cumulative production

17 Russia set for greater diversity of gas export markets Net gas exports rise substantially from 19 bcm in 21 to close to 33 bcm in 235, bolstered by an expansion of gas trade links with China

18 Russia remains a cornerstone of the global energy economy Russian revenue from fossil fuel exports 21 $255 billion 235 $42 billion China 2% Other 21% Other Europe 16% European Union 61% China 2% Other 17% Other Europe 15% European Union 48% An increasing share of Russian exports go eastwards to Asia, providing Russia with diversity of markets and revenues

19 The door to 2 C is closing, but will we be locked-in? CO 2 emissions (gigatonnes) C trajectory C trajectory Delay until 217 Delay until 215 Emissions from existing infrastructure Without further action, by 217 all CO 2 emissions permitted in the 45 Scenario will be locked-in by existing power plants, factories, buildings, etc

20 If we don t change direction soon, we ll end up where we re heading In a world full of uncertainty, one thing is sure: rising incomes & population will push energy needs higher Oil supply diversity is diminishing, while new options are opening up for natural gas Coal the forgotten fuel has underpinned growth, but its future will be shaped by uptake of efficient power plants & CCS Power sector investment will become increasingly capital intensive with the rising share of renewables The world needs Russian energy, while Russia needs to use less Despite steps in the right direction, the door to 2 C is closing

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