The GEO Global Carbon Observation and Analysis System

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1 Observation and Analysis System Dr. A. Bombelli Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC), Italy

2 Time history of atmospheric carbon dioxide from 800,000 years ago until January, The importance of Observing! (from ESRL, NOAA:

3 Why a GEO Carbon task? State of the art of C-observations Many monitoring networks lack of continuity and sustainability The need for global coordination Many different methods to monitor C-cycle interoperability of the systems and intercomparison of the results are difficult continuously collect higher quality and Many C-budget estimates at different temporal/spatial scale still high uncertainty quantity of CO2 and CH4 data from still under-represented regions and ecosystems types different domains and with an enhanced Impressive scientific spatial information and temporal resolution. difficult to translate science into policy relevant information, in order to By timely serve decision makers need for independent Internationally and reliable sustained verification and coordinated system of greenhouse gas emissions and sinksglobal Carbon Observation and need for improved information Analysis System, to address to build mitigation and adaptation strategies in the short term a GEOSS for Carbon

4 GEO: Observe, Share, Inform GEO Task CL-02, Global Carbon Observation and Analysis: Observe carbon cycle (pools and fluxes) in all its domains (atmosphere, land, water, and human dimension) by ground and space based approaches Share carbon related data, database, products, etc. Inform options decision makers to timely address adaptation and mitigation

5 GEO Task CL-02, Global Carbon Observation and Analysis: Leading partners (open and volunteer partnership): Australia (CSIRO), EC (GEOCARBON), France (LSCE), Italy (CMCC, University of Tuscia), Japan (AIST, JAXA), Netherlands (University of Amsterdam), Norway (Bergen), UK (University of Sheffield), USA (NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS), CEOS, GTOS, WMO (GAW) Planned activities (i) Improve information and products: Provide a coordinated set of harmonized global carbon information (integrating the land, ocean, atmosphere and human dimension). Support decision makers and relevant international community (providing advice on carbon observations). Create a Carbon portal linked to the GEO Portal.

6 GEO Task CL-02, Global Carbon Observation and Analysis: Planned activities (ii) Improve global observation networks measuring carbon pools and fluxes, considering both CO2 and CH4: Produce a catalogue of current observation systems and datasets. Identify gaps in the current coordination of the global observing systems. Define an optimal observational network design for an operational global carbon observing system. Improve (resolution and accuracy) carbon budgets at different scales: Provide a coordinated set of harmonized global carbon information based upon existing observations and model integrations.

7 GEO Task CL-02, Global Carbon Observation and Analysis: Planned activities (iii) Develop geo-information tools, databases and models integrating data from different sources: Develop an integrated Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (CCDAS) ingesting data from multiple data sources (in situ and satellite observations of atmospheric, terrestrial and ocean domains) at different scale. Maintain and update a geo-referenced database. Validate space-based GHG observations and consolidate data requirements for the next-generation GHG monitoring missions: Routinely provide space-based GHG data and products for CO2 and CH4, e.g. drawn from the GOSAT, SCHIAMACHY and IASI missions. Identify gaps in current and future GHG missions. Design CEOS activities in response to the GEO Carbon Strategy Report.

8 European Commission (EC) / Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) Starting date:01/10/2011 Just started! Duration: 36 months Total funds: 8.6 M of which 6.6 M from EC Keywords:Carbon cycle; Observation system; Data assimilation; GHG budget; Land and ocean fluxes; Forest Monitoring; Tropical C-stocks and changes. Project Coordinator Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC), Italy Develop a coordinated Global Carbon Observation and Analysis System, supporting the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) toward building a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) for carbon (last 3 years of the GEO WP).

9 GEOCARBON the Partnership 1 Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC), Italy 2 University of East Anglia, United Kingdom 3 Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETHZ), Switzerland 4 University of Wageningen, The Netherlands 5 University of Oxford, United Kingdom 6 VU University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands 7 University of Leeds, United Kingdom 8 Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Germany 9 University of Versailles, LSCE France 10 Netherlands Institute for Space Research (SRON), The Netherlands 11 Second University of Naples, Italy 12 University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom 13 Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center(NERSC), Norway 14 University of Tuscia, Italy 15 University of Bergen, Norway 16 GAMMA Remote Sensing Research and Consulting AG, Switzerland 17 Cameroon Biodiversity Conservation Society, Cameroon 18 FastOpt, Germany 19 University of Bristol, United Kingdom 20 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),Austria 21 Research Institute of Nuclear Energy (IPEN), Brazil 22 Food and Agriculture Organisation of The United Nations (FAO) 23 Free University of Brussels, Belgium 24 National Centerfor Scientific Research (CNRS), France 25 University of Hamburg, Germany

10 Component 1 - Observations data streams Provide an aggregated set of harmonized global carbon data information (integrating the land, ocean, atmosphere and human dimension). Integrate and synthetize global observations. Reconcile stocks changes and fluxes Consistent data-driven picture Main data streams: land fluxes and stocks, ocean fluxes and inventories, atmospheric and other constraints, and fossil fuel and other anthropogenic emissions.

11 Component 1 -Observations data streams WP1: Land stocks & change WP2: Land-atm fluxes WP3: Lateral fluxes Provide an aggregated set of harmonized global carbon data. WP5: Anthropogenic fluxes WP6: Atmospheric & other WP7: Integration & synthesis Component 2 Component 4 Carbon office

12 Global land stocks and stock change M. Herold, Geocarbon WP1

13 FLUXNET based terrestrial flux estimates Primary productivity Global total: Pg/yr Ensemble median map Light-use eff. GPP [gc m -2 yr -1 ] Model tree ensembles ANN Water-use PFT+Clim Machine learning Semi-empirical Beer et al. (2010), Science

14 Towards 30 years of monthly global biosphereatmosphere 0.5 Here: Gross primary productivity M. Jung, Geocarbon WP2

15 Ocean CO 2 Fluxes, Transport, and Storage AIR-SEA FLUXES flux storage flux transport storage transport Gruber et al. (2009)

16 GEOCARBON integration: hot-spot analysis & attribution Biospheric IAV Hydrological IAV Meteo. IAV

17 Component 2 Synthesis of Atmosphere, Land, and Ocean Carbon Cycle from model data fusion (CCDAS) Obtaining, evaluate and synthetize the carbon cycle budgets of multiple CCDAS approaches, including errors assessment. 5 global data assimilation systems (simultaneously integrating models and observations of the atmosphere, ocean, and land carbon cycle) + 2 ocean-only process models. Objectives Integrate multi-data streams (in situ, atmos., and satellite observations) Provide synthesis of C fluxes and stocks using multiple CCDAS Benchmark the results against independantdata Analyse the results against the major contributing processes Derive specific C balance for S. America & Africa

18 Component 2 Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System Land imager (SAR: Biomass) Ocean & terrestrial in situ data Land use & forest data Remote sensing Ocean model ecosystem model atmospheric data CO2 conc. (GOSAT, OCO2, ) Wind & Temp. profile Atmospheric model Anthropogenic emissions Natural & Human GHG emission map 5 global data assimilation systems (simultaneously integrating models and observations of the land, ocean and atmosphere carbon cycle) + 2 ocean-only process models.

19 Component 2 Flow chart of the component

20 Satellite column observations Component 3 -Global Carbon Observing System accuracy requirements and network design Atmospheric in situ observations Single datastream network optimization: Multiple datastream network optimization Inventories Determination of error of target quantity versus network/observation density (e.g. no of stations, towers, satellite measurements, etc.) Determination of error of target quantity versus network/observation density for combinations of several networks Nominal network cost determination for different network combinations Fluxtowers O2/N2 Error of target quantity Threshold Target # of observations # obs network 1 Error of target quantity Target Threshold Cost Target Threshold Error of target quantity 13C/12C # obs network 2 Fossil-fuel radiocarbon observations Define the detailed requirements for an operational integrated global carbon observing system. Considering: different (ground and space based) networks sampling the ocean, the land and the atmospheric carbon reservoirs. Including: accuracy requirements, network performance, gap analysis, and feasibility.

21 Component 3 specific objectives Establish GHG flux and carbon pools measurement accuracy requirements (target and threshold accuracies) from overarching scientific and policy relevant questions as formulated in the GEO Carbon Observation Strategy Report, Assess performances of current networks, given the above-derived accuracy requirements, Perform gap analyses of current networks for biomass inventory plots, ocean surface pco2 and interior carbon data, atmospheric surface stations networks and flux towers, Estimate the potential of tracers 13C and O2/N2 to discriminate and quantify abioticand biological carbon source-sink processes, Estimate the potential of satellite observations of GHG column mixing-ratios from various sensors, in combination with surface stations, to provide information on fluxes, Estimate the potential of satellite observations of biomass to provide information on land use fluxes and on carbon uptake by intact forests Estimate the feasibility, scale, and potential capabilities of future observations of radiocarbon and of satellite data to verify fossil emissions Provide nominal cost estimates for each network component of the integrated carbon observing system as a function of specified target accuracy, Provide nominal cost saving estimates of using different networks in combination as a function of specified target accuracy. Provide an aggregated set of harmonized global carbon data information (integrating the land, ocean, atmosphere and human dimension) based upon existing observations Synthesize existing observation into most likely empirical global carbon balance

22 A combination of Atmospheric Biomass Ecosystem EOS River inventories fluxes land carbon concentrations use Component 4 Amazon and tropical Africa Reduce the uncertainty of the net carbon balance and trends of tropical South America and Africa in order to improve regional C-budgets.

23 Current status of global CO 2 budgets: Atmospheric CO 2 NOAA/ESRL Fossil fuel CO 2 emissions CDIAC Land Use Change bookkeeping by Houghton Land DGVM average (or residual) Ocean Model averaged scaled to mean obs Budgets grounded on peer-reviewed literature Raupachet al. PNAS 2007 Canadellet al. PNAS 2007 Le Quéré et al. Nature Geoscience 2009 Friedlingstein et al. Nature Geoscience 2010 Peters et al. subm Nature Climate Change Ciaiset al. in prep

24 Strategy for improvements in annual emissions and sinks on land slow pools fire data fluxes from deliberate land management DGVMs fluxes from indirect effects CCDAS Outcome of May 2011 Princeton workshop to be followed up by GEOCarbon workshop

25 Component 6 Integration and synthesis of the global methane cycle Develop the CH4 observing system component Improve the assessment of global CH4 sources and sinks Synthesis of available measurements and emission estimates. CH4 data streams: in-situ concentration and flux measurements, remote sensing derived soil moisture. Special focus on emissions from natural wetlands. Data integration using 2 independent data assimilation systems and land surface models of wetland CH 4 emissions, to product synthesis of the global methane cycle. Reconstruction of the evolution of the global methane cycle in the past decade using inverse modelling. Satellite measurements: SCIAMACHY, GOSAT, IASI.

26 Emission estimates Emission inventory Process modeling Component 6 Integration and synthesis of the global CH4 cycle Evaluation measurement campaigns Wetlands Inverse modeling Measurements Synthesis Flux variability Satellites Global budgets SCIAMACHY, GOSAT, IASI. Surface networks

27 Key elements & tools Process models of natural wetlands (ORCHIDEE, LPJ-WhyMe) -boreal/arctic & tropics Atmospheric inversions (TM5-4DVAR, LMDZ) Surface measurements (flasks, (tall)towers, aircraft, FTS) - Inversion & performance evaluation Satellite measurements (Sciamachy, GOSAT, IASI) - Total column & upper troposphere

28 Component 7 Costs-benefits (monetary and non monetary) analysis Provide an economic (cost and benefit) assessment of the value of an enhanced Global Carbon Observation System. Component 5 Integrated CO 2 budgets and their uncertainties Deliver global and regional CO2 budgets on an annual basis. Component 8 Interface with GEO, Outreach and Project Coordination Dissemination and exploitation of the project results. Turn the project results into policy relevant information. Liaise with relevant partners and decision makers. Carbon office!

29 GEO-Carbon-Office (GCO): interface between GEOCARBON, EC and GEO, to strengthen the effectiveness of the global carbon community participation in the GEO system. - promote the global coordination of carbon observations and analysis systems (from the European level to global) - enhance the communication flow among the different communities - promote the involvement of the relevant monitoring communities in the GEO process toward GEOSS - support GEO and the Carbon Community of Practice - mediate between science (inside and outside the project) and policy: turn scientific results into policy relevant information; provide an independent verification system to monitor compliance with international carbon agreements

30 Component 5 Integrated CO 2 budgets and their uncertainties Deliver global and regional CO2 budgets on an annual basis (for the globe and for key ocean and land regions) including their uncertainty and confidence level for current and future use in the International Carbon Office and GEO carbon tasks. Develop a protocol to estimate the uncertainty and the confidence level of the carbon budgets, and evaluate the reliability of individual data streams (including model results). The global and regional budgets will be based on the integration of data-based estimates, data assimilation systems, and process models.

31 Component 7 Costs-benefits (monetary and non monetary) analysis Provide an economic (cost and benefit) assessment of the value of an enhanced Global Carbon Observation System. Value of information measured by: Difference in climate change strategy portfolios between the original and the improved information cases; Difference in policy costs and carbon prices (effects on carbon markets) between the original and the improved information cases; Economic value of improved information versus the non-monetary value of improved information Comparison with the costs of the system Integrated modeling exercise coupling physical, economic & policy info

32 Workflow Component 7 T21.1 Methodology Key concepts, definitions, etc. T21.2 Model Development T21.3 Model Linkage T21.4 Global Assessment T21.3 EU- Assessment

33 Coordination links Data exchange 1- Observation data streams 3- Specifications and Network Design 7- Cost benefit analysis 2- Data assimilation system (CCDAS) 6- CH4 4- Tropical hotspots 5- Global and regional synthesis 8- Outreach and GEO Interface Project Management

34 CMP1 - Observation Data Streams CMP2 - Synthesis of Atmosphere, Land, and Ocean Carbon Cycle from model data fusion CMP3 - Global Carbon Observing System accuracy requirements and network design CMP4 - Enabling and implementing CCDAS for the Amazon and tropical Africa CMP5- Integrated CO2 budgets and their uncertainties CMP6 - Integration and synthesis of the global methane cycle CMP7 - Costsbenefits analysis CMP8 Interface with GEO, Outreach and Project Coordination WP 1.1: Land fluxes and stocks WP1.1a: Global land stocks and stock changes WP1.1b: Global land biosphereatmosphere fluxes WP 2.1 Harmonization of input and output data streams WP 2.2 Carbon cycle reanalysis products from several CCDAS efforts WP 3.1 Global Carbon Observing system accuracy requirements and network design WP 2.1 Harmonization of input and output data streams WP 2.1 Harmonization of input and output data streams WP5.1 Global CO 2 budgets WP5.2 Regional CO 2 budgets over the ocean WP6.1 Integrating surface observations WP6.2 Integrating atmospheric observations WP7.1 Costs-benefits (monetary and non monetary) analysis WP 8.1 Outreach and interface with EC, GEO and UNFCCC WP 8.2 Project Management WP1.1c: Lateral carbon fluxes WP1.2 Ocean CO 2 fluxes WP 2.3 Regional CCDAS products for the Tropics WP5.3 Regional CO 2 budgets over the land WP6.3 Synthesis of the global methane cycle W1.3 Anthropogenic emissions and trade fluxes WP1.4 Atmospheric and other constraining data sets W1.5 Cross-WP integration and synthesis WP 2.4 CCDAS products at the national scale WP 2.5 Independent assessment of CCDAS products WP 2.6 Synthesis and Integration of CCDAS products GEOCARBON Work Packages (23)

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39 Observation THANKS! and Analysis System Dr. A. Bombelli Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC), Italy